Member Info for MarkGo

Thanks for the article meoryou. Really appreciate your time finding and posting these articles.

Have a great day

Good afternoon all

meoryou, ' Fraud ' where's the proof ?

https://www.ft.com/content/6428c082-db1c-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce

2017 so add some zeros to the numbers.

Fantastic posts this week.

Mark

Oil has had a fantastic Q1 so far ( usually a large inventory build quarter and reduced demand) in comparison to previous years yet O&G companies are through the floor.

This will not last. Fomo is draining funds from value to an overheated growth sector. Massive gamble at ridiculous valuations. Bubble comes to mind.

Questor's positive view

While the company’s fourth-quarter profits were ahead of market forecasts, its announcement of a $1.75bn (£1.4bn) share buyback programme, to be completed before the release of its first-quarter results, appears to have resonated with investors.

Furthermore, the company said it was committed to announcing a further $3.5bn in share buybacks for the first half of the current financial year as part of plans to return at least 80pc of surplus cash flow to shareholders. This could mean the repurchase of around $14bn of its shares in aggregate over the 2024 and 2025 financial years.

In Questor’s view, BP’s ambitious share buyback plan is entirely logical because it offers excellent value for money. The company’s shares trade at just seven times forecast earnings, which grossly undervalues their long-term prospects even when compared with a dirt-cheap London stock market.

And with net debt marginally declining to $20.9bn in the 2023 financial year, to give BP a net gearing ratio of just 25pc, it does not need to use any surplus cash to reduce leverage.

Its improving financial position also means greater stability and therefore growing appeal for income investors. Dividends rose by 10pc year-on-year in the fourth quarter and were covered a healthy 2.4 times by earnings despite the fall in profits. The company’s shares now yield 4.8pc, against 3.9pc for the FTSE 100 index.

Afternoon all.

Oil dipped on week on week inventory data but here's the bigger picture.

In the first six weeks of 2023 global oil inventories rose by 40MM Bbls. This year in the first six weeks global inventories have fallen by 81MM Bbls and at currently their lowest levels since 2017. Q1 is seasonally a build quarter.

Global inventories are now at record lows even with 270 MILLION ADDITIONAL BARRELS from the Strategic reserve being dumped into the market over the past two years in an attempt to suppress the price of oil. Consensus is that demand is set to increase year on year with US oil production slowing and Opec's spare capacity limited should demand require it. Oil is cheaper today than it was a decade ago in real terms. So I remain positive and patience I expect will be rewarded over the next few years.

All stated with frustration where the share price is today but with the dividend banked and a limited pull back positive for the future.

Good luck all

Mark

Hi WeirdPal

Its a fairly long article to paste. I circumvented the subscription by copying and paste - Look beyond buybacks to see BP's plan for the future - in a incognito tab

Mark

Good afternoon all.

Surprised at the negativity. Oil at $82. Market makers playing around with every sector with energy doing okay.

No gains or losses are crystallised until you sell so try to ignore the daily, weekly SP movements for our own peace of mind. ( Gingy )

As Spights recently posted, patience is key. This is a medium to long term play. Dividend banked in a few days as well.

Good afternoon meoryou

I hope all's well with you. Great point and I agree. I wonder how much truth there is in the Permian basin being depleted much faster than expected ? I see the Opec cartel regaining market share and control of supply and price in the years to come.

I found this an interesting read on the Permian basin.

Beginning of the End for the Permian

January 4, 2024|Art Berman

https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian/

Have a wonderful weekend meoryou and thank you for your opinion, articles and posts.

Mark

Morning all.

A good week and I hope and expect the start of a bumpy road north. I posted previously that something will have to give in the suppression of the oil price and, early days, but I sense we are witnessing a pivotal moment and a shift of direction that may not be able to be manipulated downwards.

Oil prices are rising for the fourth day in a row as a result of continued tensions in the Middle East and robust U.S. demand.

Shipping giants such as Maersk have voiced concerns that the Red Sea shipping crisis may continue throughout 2024 – a worrying prospect for not just shippers, but for Western leaders in general.

Geopolitical upheaval is one of the reasons why JP Morgan sees a $10 upside for oil prices. The investment bank sees tightening supply and robust demand this Spring. A $10 jump in crude prices could be good news for oil companies.

J.S.B

Regardless of the catchy slogan there is very little appetite for US producers to ' drill baby drill' . Companies are now focusing on the demand from shareholders for returns and capital discipline to maximise returns, and rightly so, after years of vast capital spend on exploration and production.

The US have ramped up their production under 'Green' Biden. Analysts opinion is that US peak production will be achieved sometime during this decade and with demand set to grow year on year, I would treat Trump's words as just that, words, with whoever is elected having no long term influence on price. Short term volatility but not long term price.

Maybe sooner or later

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/energy-m-a-boom-is-just-getting-started-enbridge-ceo-ebel-says

Maybe one reason for a drag on price recently.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dutch-fund-sells-shell-bp-totalenergies-stakes-in-3-billion-divestment-from-energy-transition-laggards-46f7d26e

ARM holding delists from the FTSE, and is now over 150% up in a year in the US. Food for thought. !!!

Hi Spights

"One word ....patience". .... Succinct and to the point. Brilliance without unnecessary words and 100% spot on.

Here is a brief conclusion from Tipranks post yesterday's presentation.

BP is maintaining a steady course under its new CEO. While the company is not dialing back its investments in renewables, oil and gas production has resumed growing with projects in the hopper to grow further if the company decides to pursue them. Even within renewables, biofuels are taking off, EV charging is headed for profitability in 2025, and wind and solar businesses are becoming more simplified.

My latest financial model update now estimates a 15.3% annual return through 2030 including a 7.5% per year dividend increase. The company has pared its debt and can continue doing so in the current commodity price environment, even with its massive buyback program.

BP looks cheap compared to peers and remains a Buy.

So our journey may be long and difficult at times and our faith and trust in BP may be tested many times by powers outside of our control but the promised land lies just the other side of this wlderness.

Keeping the faith. Onwards and upwards.

Mark

The FTSE is a very poor relation to the US markets. Any sector under performing in the US affects the equivalent UK sector.

By way of example of just how poor a relation the FTSE is these days, Apple's market value is higher than the entirety of the FTSE. US sneezes we catch a cold.

So not BP specific. Its the sector plus possibly some US BP (up 6.3% yesterday) profit taking as meoryou suggested.

Hi Jeffrey

Your frustration is fully understandable and I expect is shared by the majority of O&G equity holders. The suppression and manipulation of the oil price over the past six months has been astonishing. The US government are at war with Opec and are attempting to control/ suppress the price of oil with only 10 months to the election Biden knows that increased prices at the pump will damage his chances of re-election and he has weaponised the oil financial market ( 30 times larger than the physical market), government agencies and departments with the aim to continue the disconnect between robust global oil demand and price. Turning a blind eye to Iranian oil production while bombing their proxies, importing oil from a sanctioned Venezuela are also part of this strategy.

I believe that this will not last. Global inventories are at record lows, global demand is growing not slowing and will continue to grow. Production and supply are limited.

Something will have to give sooner or later. The Financial oil market will be aware of this and studying the data. No institution will want to be short in oil too long. Money is their President.

So let's hope our frustration will become celebration some time in the nearish future. £££

Best of luck

Mark

Hi Pang

And with more to come through 2025, with planned share buybacks of at 'least' another $14 billion.

If you are invested in energy, and you are not frustrated by what happened to oil prices in the last week, then you might be a saint. Truthfully, what had happened since last Thursday was so absurd that you can't even make it up.

Last Thursday, oil prices sold off meaningfully (~$5/bbl) following a fake news leak that Israel and Hamas were about to sign a peace deal. An hour later, the report was reneged, and over the weekend, the peace deal, that was speculated on, isn't materializing.

As for oil today, well, WTI is trading near $73/bbl Brent $79/bbl

In addition, the physical crude market remains tight indicating that there's nothing wrong with demand despite the sharp financial ( paper market )price sell-off.

In addition, global oil inventories, which were expected to build in Q1, have meaningfully declined to start the year with maybe a small build this week. Despite recent crude storage revision due to lower refinery throughput, it is expected that US commercial crude storage will be sharply lower than last year by mid-February (53.6 million bbls below).

At some point, the manipulation won't last.

Hi Zac

Always happy to oblige. In response, I see the catalyst for fair shareholder value being obtained in BP to be continued progress in the business strategy over the next few years. The high-gradeing and coming on stream of additional oil, the integration of acquisitions that BP have made over the past two years, ridiculed by some as a waste of money but have now grown in value and becoming profitable with impressive projected roi across the business together with an excellent main company infrastructure. The current share price does not reflect this value but it will in time. A 50% increase over the next few years would not be unreasonable in my opinion.

Part cyclical, part oil price manipulation, part recession fear, part unfounded demand worries are the reason BP, along with most of its peers are down. Fundementals are strong today and will improve going forward.

I know you are a very experienced investor Zac with a preference for funds. If I recall correctly, you sold out about £5.04ish. If you review on a 12 month basis you did well looking at todays price. If you sold a few months later you could have sold with an additional approximately 12% profit ( very rough maths and failing memory) so perspective and view point is key in assessment.

Good luck with you funds and investments.

Mark

Zac4

What interest do you have in BP now. You sold out previously so why give a history lesson on the share price.

Investing is forward looking.

Congratulations on your top up timing Happy

Just finished watching the webcast and I'm still as bullish as ever on BP regardless of the current market irrationality.

Fundamentally the share price drop from 570 to 441 was nonsense. In the long term fundamentals will drive BP to new heights.

I intend on holding until real value is obtained.