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Did Russia invade today? Maybe on the border. Big drop in SP anyway.
Dont know why the share price dropped , here to find out as Google knows nothing ,same with tbc down a similar percentage , going to retake an holding in tbc as I know it better than bog ,both have done well so I assume it's a temoort blip?
Dont know why the share price dropped , here to find out as Google knows nothing ,same with tbc down a similar percentage , going to retake an holding in tbc as I know it better than bog ,both have done well so I assume it's a temporary blip?
This will be it
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/01/georgia-russia-foreign-influence-bill-protests-democracy-eu/
"If passed, the law would require all nongovernmental organizations to declare if they receive a certain amount of their funding from abroad."
I've always thought a lot of Russians put money in Georgia so they won't like it!
Yep, and comments from the EU that the enactment of this law would be a serious block to Georgia's ambitions of joining the EU. I sold all my shares at 5069p yesterday - annoyed, as was debating selling them at 5550p earlier in the week, but you can never judge these things perfectly. I think that unfortunately there will be further volatility / scope for SP retreat unless/until the progress of this law gets dropped.
There may also be a decent bounce when they have to drop the legislation, like they did last year. The question is whether it's posturing legislation or whether it has actual effect, if implemented. The more worrying issue would be the gradual drift towards direct Russian involvement in Georgia.
SP is back into recent trading range for now anyway, share buy back still progressing, dividends still expected
IMHO the proposed law is preparation for the parliamentary elections in October - it would give the ruling Georgian Dream a means to crack down on dissent and political opponents (as happened in Russia). If so, they won't drop the proposed legislation except as a last resort. I'm holding - and may even top up if the SP falls below 3000 - but I think it is going to be a bumpy ride!
Not sure whether to buy in here. Are we expecting it to drop anymore?
I've been looking for a buy-in point for a while. This dip is tempting, but I think prudence suggests the risk drops off a cliff if Russia is demonstrably in-check. On balance I'm going to let some time go past before I press the buy button.
I am in because this remains a good company and the overdone drop is based on rumour , not fact
Yes, there was a rumour that Russia was intending to invade Ukraine, but the Russians denied it, so business as usual - until 24th Feb 2022...
Yes, they've been there and done that. Now seem to be focusing on getting control through pro-Putin politicians and legislating against any opposition.
I'll keep buying on dips - it's a cracking high growth business throwing off cash (not many of those around). Russia is not going to invade, they aren't going to change the government or kick out foreign companies...if you know anything about Georgia this is a completely different context to Ukraine.
If, despite the scale of protest, the 'foreign agents' bill is passed today I fear all hell will break out in Tbliisi. Even if the EU and UK do not apply sanctions, civil unrest is bad for market sentiment and even good companies experience collateral damage. There is a fine line between buying the dip and catching a falling knife.
The bill has passed, no surprise. You can almost see Georgia on a slippery slope to turning into another Belarus unless something drastic happens to get rid of the Putin puppets currently in control.
I've just added a few @ £40, can't resist with the yeald around 7% tucked away and forget. Good luck any holders still in
Good luck (and to all shareholders) - I can't see sentiment and SP recovering unless either (i) or (ii) in my earlier post should happen.
Sadly need to sell this.
Just knew something would happen. Genuinely thought I had found an under the radar gem.
Don't fully understand what's going on as there's so little info on this share.. But I'll look at wider news.
To much risk in this now.
I think, were I long I too would at least be de-risking by now. However, I'm contemplating that a modest punt at 38xx or better might be reasonable, despite hoi polloi having now appreciated the extent of the threat from Rxssia presently.
Beware the fx risk. BGEO dividend is in GEL, which is losing value because of the situation.
Dram agree the FX risk but personally was fortunate to pick these up at a silly price. 3 more years of divis and I have the shares for free. I bought more at £40 as I think it was blood on the streets time, a bank with a yield of 7% . Agree currency could take a bashing but I believe whatever happens this is a well run bank and will adapt to whatever lies ahea
The Georgian currency is a very big risk here and if the GEL was to return to the same average exchange rate against the USD and GBP as in 2021 then these shares would fall by about 30%
In May 2021 the USD bought 3.45 GEL but it only buys about 2.75 now
And in May 2021 the GBP bought about 4.80 GEL but it only buys about 3.50 now
There does not seem to be any good reason for this huge rise in the GEL gainst the USD and GBP in the last 3 years and so it is likely that the GEL will return to a more normal level against these currencies
This would mean a fall of about 30% in the shares
The dividend would also fall by about 30%
Price to book valuation here is also very high in comparison to UK banks
Close Brothers 0.35
Barclays 0.37
Secure Trust Bank 0.39
Standard Chartered 0.47
Lloyds 0.65
Natwest 0.67
HSBC 0.9
TBC Bank 1.3
Bank of Georgia 1.6
Manfor, you may be right on currency risk - certainly it can't be ignored. It's interesting though that 10 years ago the GEL was stronger at 1.72 and 5 years ago about the same exchange rate as now so hard to say what normal is.