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I guess it's a fair gamble to short a potential 'sell on news' event here, and probably still 50:50 on whether they pull off the commercial flows at first attempt, but there's risk in a leveraged short position as the anticipatory price is likely to keep rising for a couple of weeks at least before there's news.
It's all to do with the launch of the new national mining strategy
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/wizara-ya-madini-tanzania_vision2030-madiniyetu-miningindustry-activity-7188399066622439425--LQX
No deramping at all. Itās clear from the Tweet that they have started āthe operationā and clear from the photo that they have not yet spudded the drill (an impossibility on day 1). The poster suggested ā 1 day to open the well and remove the old pump, 2 days to do the side track and a further 2 days to put in production castings and reinsert the pumpā. That is misleading. The operation should take approximately two weeks (from start of operations).
I would remain cautious about margins until we have the company financials. There is a difference between this well/field wiping it's own face and the company as a whole turning a profit. I'm not sure the two numbers are the same, although they may be close.
SP is back into recent trading range for now anyway, share buy back still progressing, dividends still expected
There may also be a decent bounce when they have to drop the legislation, like they did last year. The question is whether it's posturing legislation or whether it has actual effect, if implemented. The more worrying issue would be the gradual drift towards direct Russian involvement in Georgia.
There is no slippage at all HMS, the 16 April RNS predicted
"...release of the rig is now expected at the end of April 2024" and "Side track operations are expected to commence around seven days after mobilisation. The side track operation itself is expected to take approximately 14 days".
That is exactly what the 29 April RNS confirms, rig released, mobilisation of a week, drilling from around 8 May, then two weeks. No delay at all from previous position.