25p to 33p risked SP (128p to 178p unrisked)23 Jun 2021 13:11
Depending on price of helium in the market, still looking like value buy at this price with great upside potential if they strike lucky. Fingers crossed.
"In our base case scenario, we use a helium price of US$250/mcf long-term flat from 2021 and a 12% discount rate from 1/1/2021. Our risked NAV is 25p/sh, which implies 25% upside from the current share price. On an unrisked basis, we have a NAV of £1.33/sh or ~6x upside. Further to this are the follow-on prospects that are not included in our NAV and its other exploration areas. A US$50/mcf increase in the helium price would increase our risked NAV by 6p/sh and unrisked by 33p/sh." (H&P estimates, 23 June)
RE: Hannah & Partners equity research update 23rd June23 Jun 2021 11:48
Key takeaways for me...
"We think it is important to distinguish between a helium show in this basin and an oil and gas show when drilling a hydrocarbon exploration well. A helium show in a virgin basin is highly significant as for the first time it proves the existence of helium in the subsurface."
" Helium seepages are evidence of a prolific subsurface helium-rich fluid system"
"The two historic (dry) petroleum exploration wells in the Rukwa Basin demonstrate stratigraphy with effective seal capacity"
"Our risked NAV is 25p/sh, which implies 25% upside from the current share price. On an unrisked basis, we have a NAV of £1.33/sh or ~6x upside.
...Further to this are the follow-on prospects that are not included in our NAV and its other exploration areas."
RE: Dreaming of a down the line SP22 Jun 2021 21:40
if you’ve read the geology you’ll know why it points towards a possible resource basin of that scale. Whether it’s commercially extractable, at what cost, and over what timescale, is another question. We know what the range of risked valuations is for this campaign. Much more than that isn’t likely this year.
RE: Dreaming of a down the line SP22 Jun 2021 21:12
The basin could be a 100 year resource so you can’t assume all the potential value onto the share price short term. HE1 is not even a production company, it’s a prospector. There will be a bounce for sure if they make a discovery but be realistic about the challenges of bringing that discovery to market, which would take a while, require a new business model and more capital as well as favourable political conditions. They’ve done everything right so far but one step at a time. Talking about £3, £5, £10 is very premature.
If they can exploit additional processing capacity to take advantage of increased market share. Total mining capacity globally can't be altered due to the algorithm but yes, it gets easier for those miners remaining and as ARB don't sell the coin they mine there should be an advantage in accumulated holdings against future price rise.
RE: ARB doing well to be only 15% down22 Jun 2021 15:16
ARB continues to outperform BTC by a considerable margin if you compare where they were in January. You'd be more than 30% better off holding ARB than BTC since then and when BTC rises then ARB will hopefully retain that kind of margin.
I really wouldn't worry too much unless BTC price strays much beyond the 2 standard error confidence bands on the S2F model for long (currently that's around $25k ...or $300k going the other way!). People get far too spooked by short-term movements. On an log scale curve the fluctuations are only likely to increase numerically over time, best get used to it or buy shares in Lloyds.