Member Info for Blubay

The FS was never intended for publication. It was always said that the key data would be reviewed and published in an independent CPR, which is exactly what they did. All the key assumptions and contingencies are assessed there. It explains the modelling the company used for scenario planning, and the development plan, the dynamics of a ‘typical’ well, the number of wells, their potential locations, flow rates, pilot plant, etc. It’s all there. Unsurprisingly the company pitched for its best case scenario and the CPR took a more moderate risk view. That’s normal.

BNL is the operator and they’ve sold the first trailer load. I’m not sure why that’s hard to understand from the RNS.

The difficulty with the test flow from ITW1 was that the hot basement fluids seem to be mixing with the intermediate aquifer down the hole, which is both diluting and cooling. So the water pumped to surface is useful for irrigation but presents some limitations for geothermal or helium gas production. We’ll have to wait for the forward plan to see if they might attempt a workaround or whether they’ll opt to drill elsewhere as suggested in the RNS.

“Why not let them good news sink in then do a raise?“

Because the kind of AIM brokers and capital event funds that HE1 relies on call the shots and name the price they’re prepared to risk.

HE1 RNS “ The Operator has agreed sales for the initial tube trailer at spot pricing”

Kread - why would they need recoup any capex from Galactica? It’s paid for. They’re completely debt free so all revenue after opex is free cash without liability.

They have commenced ‘mining activities’, they are not in breach of that clause. However, the mining plan agreements will include specific clauses about expected annual activity and spending which they will need to keep in mind.

Posting AI generated motivational memes is not going to raise the share price.

Work has already begun Toffers, it began almost immediately with preparations for the ESP test.

Rule 1: never fall in love with a share, stay faithful to your capital. HE1 is a great company story to follow but holding onto their shares for long is risky.

Not really Stan. It requires work, time and money to establish if and how it can be done. They’ve done well so far to demonstrate a working helium system. Now they need to go again to try and show how it can be extracted commercially because they weren’t able to do that yet at Tai or Itumbula. Not easy but if they do it then it’s possibly an industry game changer in transitioning away from long term dependence of natural gas fields.

Rukwa has commercial potential if the contingencies can be resolved. Obviously those aren’t insignificant but if they can work out how to target holes into the basement faults without interference from the intervening aquifers then they may be able liberate a similar helium flow to the Colorado wells (albeit without the CO2 cash bonus). If a large number of wells could be achieved then premium asset value would come from the strategic security/longevity of the field. It’s a longer road to revenue but I wouldn’t dismiss it.

Retention of the Tanzanian mining licence is conditional on the company’s continued activity and annual investment into developing the resources (beyond just paying for the licence fee). Basically, as long as they give the impression of maintaining momentum and local spending on the project they’ll keep the licence. It’s not at any risk if they’re planning further drilling and data acquisition, which appears to be the plan.

MC - you need to go back and read the RNS properly. It’s abundantly clear what the forward plan for Rukwa is. They plan to drill and test new targets in other locations to understand the basement play better. Where on earth do you get the idea that the next step is a production plant? It couldn’t be clearer.

“ Forward Plan

The Company will now continue to evaluate the results of this test. In particular, it will seek to increase its understanding of the sources and interaction of the helium enriched fluids that have been identified. This will require further drilling and testing, which will likely focus on primary fractured Basement targets at other locations across the 480 km2 Mining Licence area. A number of these targets have already been identified by the Company, and many of these are at shallower depths where the Basement is juxtaposed against faults.

During this evaluative phase, the Company will also consider additional data acquisition options which will enable a more detailed evaluation of Basement fractures and connectivity. Future work programmes will need to focus on appraising the full potential of the Basement helium play.”

"Now that the Mining Licence is secured, the next technical steps involve finalising the engineering for the modular production plant."

I don't think that's the next technical step for Rukwa? Surely the next step is to identify a new drill target that stands a better chance of accessing a basement fault that can liberate gas to surface at a higher ratio than ITW1, successfully appraise that to establish proven reserves, and repeat that for half a dozen production wells, which can then be linked to that early stage production plant.

I think you're wrong. Colorado clearly has the potential to transition to a going concern business in the short to medium term. Whether they choose to run it that way or reinvest and rely on further capital raises is a business decision but it will be for the first time a choice they have and that changes a lot.

You seem to have gone from one extreme to the other. I haven't changed my view at all. I'm still optimistic about the company's future but adjust my view of the share price according to news. I'm bullish about the Colorado project as a going concern but cautious about the Rukwa project. They've done well to diversify and derisk. I'd like to see them expand on Galactica-Pegasus and also look to capitalise on other near to market acquisition opportunities if opportunity arises. Rukwa is still a great story but the emphasis now has to be on building the commercial side of the business.

They appear to be using regular market capital raises to fund the well drilling so far, so it remains an open question what is planned for revenue allocation. Colorado looks like a sustainable business given that it starts with zero debt and low opex for higher than expected income. Rukwa remains both an asset with commercial potential and a current liability (mining licence, rig, crew etc).

It doesn't no, because we're talking about the Colorado project and Rukwa is not yet close to production feasibility or revenue generation. Colorado is all about revenue versus reinvestment, while Rukwa is all about capex, lots of capex.

If it makes it easier, here's an illustrative table using BNL's published assumptions for full capacity CO2 production, at $400/tonne, plus helium at the mid range initial stabilised helium flow from the seven production wells, minus opex, and different helium spot price assumptions from $400 up to $1,000. Back of an envelope but you get the idea, in a few months time, if everything works as planned.

He Price ($/Mcf) He Revenue CO₂ Revenue Total Revenue Opex Annual Net Revenue

$400 $6.38M $15.28M $21.66M $12.10M $9.56M

$500 $7.97M $15.28M $23.25M $12.10M $11.15M

$600 $9.57M $15.28M $24.85M $12.10M $12.75M

$700 $11.16M $15.28M $26.44M $12.10M $14.34M

$800 $12.76M $15.28M $28.04M $12.10M $15.94M

$900 $14.35M $15.28M $29.63M $12.10M $17.53M

$1,000 $15.95M $15.28M $31.23M $12.10M $19.13M