Member Info for Blubay

Yeah, it could be more but with the current volatility and early days in the production plant best to be prudent about it. Based on the flow rates from the seven wells drilled so far, the projected initial flow of helium could be around 1,300 Mscf/month up to a maximum of 1,900 Mscf/month (so roughly 60-85% of the helium plant processing capacity). That's input rather than output, so you need a little headroom for efficiency, but also for downtime, well compression, maintenance etc. but the range is probably fine for illustration. You can't base commercial estimates on 100% processing capacity. On the actual capacity, if the helium sale price was 'double' the original estimate that's maybe $1.1m to $1.7m per month gross, but that's quite a big if for a small low grade supplier in the US domestic market. I'd be more comfortable aiming for $1m/month gross. On the other hand, the CO2 might max out the amine production capacity at 44,500 Mscf/month and that price should be fairly stable. We could also up it a bit for the high beverage grade, maybe $1m to $1.4m/month. So, yes the phase 1 project might gross over $20m a year, when it's all up and running in a few months, if the wells and plant are all running reliably and if the US domestic balloon grade helium market holds up at double its pre-war mid price. The assumed opex is low so any sustained hike in price should be very profitable and there's spare processing capacity to take more helium from new infill wells if they can get them drilled and tied in. Increase the helium flow in a sustained high price market and the bottom line could go higher for sure.

The original commercial modelling at point of acquisition was an accrual of c. $2m per year to HE1 (presumably profit) plus c. $1m from the CO2. That was based on the State 16 discovery well, before drilling any more wells. With the flow data from the wells and the processing plant specs we can guess the helium is broadly on track but with a large rise in profit margin at current spot prices, and that the CO2 revenue is likely to be considerably more than expected, possibly double given the high beverage grade. In theory, the project could possibly gross in the region $10-15m with fairly low opex, so a profit of $4-5m per partner might not be out of the question. But lots of unknowns about reinvestment, new infill wells, field stability, processing efficiency, local market demand etc. First objective has to be getting the new plant up near full capacity for helium and CO2.

It would be very surprising if there was a TR1. As in previous capital events, hundreds of millions of shares were distributed into the liquidity of news anticipation earlier this week, between 0.75p and 0.7p. Half a billion shares then changed hands before 11am today between 0.6p and 0.63p. Draw your own conclusions.

More than 80% of the raise traded before 11am auction. Zero shares traded below 0.6p, and nearly 500m traded above. More than 150 trades of 1m+ shares making up more than 70% of trade. Largest trade blocks all above 0.62p, either very bullish or very played price defence.

11am UT was only 255,000 shares at 0.6240 and Bid/Offer holding up, interesting.

What on earth do you expect a farm in partner to do differently in Rukwa?

More than half a billion shares traded before 11am and still trading above the 0.6 raise price, wow.

Busy ramping 80M, while basking in another 'perfectly timed' buy here last week, must have made more than a hundred top ups here in the past year, impressive.

Most of the major platforms won't support it or be able to provide access in the short timeframe to closure

Maybe give it a rest. You made your point and your posts contain repeated claims of false or misleading information. If you have a personal vendetta then take it up with the directors rather than bombing the chat rooms to short the stock.

Just as an aside, Cope played a blinder on Eneraqua because they managed to buy out the only useful trading part of the business under a different company name, and save most of the jobs, before the administrators got their hands on the worthless holding company. Mercenary yes, but very effective.

The board has not made mistakes. They've played the AIM capital markets very effectively, raising tens of millions of dollars for high risk and relatively low reward developments, buying their own drill rig, acquiring half of a highly commercial project in the US, with no income for a decade, yet they have zero debt. That's a brilliant management outcome for the company at this inflection point of arriving at first revenue.

Holding onto AIM shares continuously for the long term is well known to be the single biggest cause of retail losses. Anyone you see bombarding chat boards with reassurances, pleas and abuse telling you to hold or top up for long term gains is simply conning you. Your buying is their exit liquidity.

No, almost every AIM share loses face value long term, many by 70-90% over a period of years. But the volatility and cycles of rumour, news and capital events present repeated opportunities for short term gains.

AIM really does not work like this for shareholders. It invariably offers a choice between short term gain or long term pain.

Just on a law of averages the market price would be more likely than not to dip below the offer price at some point, even if briefly, but should all be done before the weekend with a bit of luck. Doesn't always happen of course. The difficulty with HE1 is that they've either chosen or been forced by the investors/bookmaker to do the same as previous rounds by neutralising the impact of a good news announcement and simultaneously squashing it with a same day raise. Just like previous rounds, the share price was rising in anticipation of positive sales news for the past week so market actors were using that demand as exit liquidity to distribute hundreds of millions of shares since Monday. Those were traded at or above 0.7 with the option now to buy the newly issued shares today at 0.6. Nive work if you can get it.

Very hard to raise AIM risk capital unless the broker can remove all risk for the investors.

Of course it was leaked Wyndrum, hundreds of millions of shares were sold in a controlled flow over the past three days, exploiting rising anticipation as exit liquidity.

I wouldn’t do that myself but maybe ask MC as he was very enthusiastic about oversubscribing to it last time.

The shares were already distributed into the anticipatory liquidity over the past few days so I agree they’ll complete the raise tomorrow or Monday.