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Which competitors are you worried about?
this'll be interesting....
Thanks Ophidian. I can see from Prof Richard Body’s Twitter feed that the first patients were recruited into the FALCON arm of CONDOR back on 29th June. Hopefully clinical validation has been progressing since shortly afterwards..... although I suppose we can’t assume that the Avacta BAMS would have been first in the queue. As for LFT, if this is being validated in the US as some posters suspect, then there’d certainly be no shortage of people to test over there.
Wyndrum the choice is yours, it is your money, if you still believe in the company and the direction it is going then hold but it sounds like you are starting to see many negatives that is swaying you towards believing that the company has not delivered on your expected timelines.
Just for clarity I dont see a company ploughing ahead like avacta with distribution deals, key employee positions being created if this was not going to happen. I am fully aware of the risks and have had the unfortunate experience of being caught out before (FRR, URU) but I believed in my investment, I was new to AIM at this point but believed in the fundamentals of those investments and was too green to spot red flags.
If the test does not hit expected highs then so be it, we then have a choice to make, wait for the cancer play to recoup losses or cut and run. I personally am very happy to wait and watch this play out over time, COVID is with us for a very long time unfortunately and we have time to perfect out test to be the best in class.
Ok, the options are... x , y, z and Just filter me out?
Done, room 101 it is! Byyyyee!
Do what you like with them. My advice would be never over extend your finances on any stock or stocks. There is no such thing (short of insider dealing) as a guaranteed success. (Just look at the title of this Thread) Says it all. Its a statement of fact when all it is an opinion. Could it not have had a question mark with it for just the merest semblance of humility that the original poster does not in fact know whats coming.
I don't like mindless ramping and occasionally I try and call it out. This board has a lot of it.
Its a speculative stock that because of its potential gains has the greed emotion running rampant through many posters veins here.
It can lead to others being seduced it to getting in deeper than they might otherwise have done.
Maybe it is because people have done a lot of research and are pleased with their investment. maybe. :)
Still waiting to hear which competitors we should be worried about when there are budgets of billions waiting to be spent to fulfil the demand in the hundreds of millions per month...
Foxo, shame we could not have had this exchange earlier, don't you think?
Yes, I am concerned on the timelines clearly, but it is actually the rush of other tests coming to market in front of AVCT that is my greater cause for concern. All the time we were in a status quo of no new test reigiems time is not so critical. Now I think it is.
It is interesting you have had the experience on other stocks. There will be many here I fear who have not learned the hard way. And I am sure we both would like that not to happen but as I have said, many posters here simply speculate as fact and that can be a heady temptress.
PL I think someone yesterday mentioned optigene?
I dont post much but have enjoyed this little exchange, even though it has stopped me getting some work done :), I think PL75 has a very interesting point just below, I forget the figures but the gov have not allocated very much of the £5B allocation on these new tests. They need to progress all tests as quickly as possible to fight the cause and will be part of a risk management strategy. I have not found one test that can out do the potential of the Avacta test.
As I say the gov have to progress these tests it is another string to the bow even if they arent great it is something. Now if I had seen a test comaprible to Avacta's potential I would have de-risked my investment here but again I havent.
I’m asking you. Is that the source of your sudden concern?
Wyndrum you need to learn to read. I didn't say we joined CONDOR yesterday - I pointed out the number of potential recruits into CONDOR yesterday as a marker for the time to validate but I suppose since you probably have absolutely no idea what is involved in that it would be lost on you. Suffice to say it wouldn't take long.
As to share price just like that idiot always whinging spouting nonsense this morning you need to notice that the share price is UP today based on real data and not a false 1 share 7p elevated end of day uncrossing trade. And it will be up tomorrow. As I suggested to him - go learn how to read a chart.
Ophidian - you also need to learn to spell
me too. I genuinely believe that these exchanges can help focus thoughts on both sides. Makes you ( might make) you reconsider your original view on why you invested and what you expected and by when. And if at the end of it nothing has changed other than a reconsideration, well I don't see that as a bad thing. Certainly we got down to justified views and opinions and not mindless statements.
Mindless statements like Boris needs to put out an RNS? I’ll try again... which competitors are you suddenly concerned about?
Ophidian, I know you did not say we joined yesterday, but by invoking only yesterdays figures I was merely pointing out that another 5-10days from yesterday was actually running into weeks from when we did join condor. But I understand given the heated state of the correspondence it could be misinterpreted.
As for the SP, it was 148p to sell on Friday close. its now down over 10% and that's because other test have come to market over the weekend increasing the chance of AVCT missing out or at least having reduced income from the available pot.
(Sorry about the name spelling)
The 20 patients Orphidian mentions though would be scattered across the different hospitals in the UK so not as easy as implied - I suspect they will want to reduce the number of centers testing for consistency.
This is also intended to be a at home test so you would want to test that aspect including ease of use and instructions.
I thought I said optigene? are they part of AVCT in some way?
Oh dear - still not too bright. Another one needs to learn to read and apply a little thought. Not even going to waste my time of this one.
Regarding this £5billion ...... remember that’s just HM Govts pot. I’m guessing that the potential for private sales is bigger... and that is just the UK. I can’t imagine HM Govt wanting an exclusive deal from Avacta..... the more sales in the private sector, the longer their own pot lasts :)
Oh for goodness sake, my point that you refuse to accept was that if we were literally days away (this week) from being able to release an RNS that gives 10 minute results on a saliva test with no machinery Boris would not have gone for 2 other companies over the weekend. I was just suggesting if he needed some sort of immediate political cover as have other posters commentated on to assure the public he has it all under control he could have something like that.
That's why I don't see an RNS this week or in fact next. That's 2 weeks from now and sometimes when its more than one you use the plural and say "weeks"
(Sorry for the sarcasm but I feel you started it.)
Ok, so you’re worried about Optigene and you’ve no idea who they are or what their test is. Try google. When you click on their website the first thing you’ll see if a banner saying their test is not an LFD. It’s a swab test needing a machine and operator. Has that soothed your sudden concern?
All I’m hearing is a wet blanket sh.tting himself because the price has moved down 10%. Try investing in Sona, their price was recently attacked from $15 down to $10 based on fake news and it’s now back to $15.
And NOWT'S changed so please don't sh*t yourselves first thing tomorrow morning if there is no RNS because you are playing right into the MM's hands.
PL75 - you are the 2nd best poster on here after me.
Pl take the tone if you like (and again like just about everybody here who likes to weigh in on my emotional state or stock holding comes to exactly the wrong conclusion) but it wasn't that long ago that part of AVCT's USP was a saliva based test. Now there are other companies out there that can do that, now we can do it without a machine but how long will that be before someone else comes to market? I don't know but I am assuming we have not got this to ourselves. and the clock is ticking.
I am concerned when a stock that is going to be a £100 a share apparently, (or even £10) cant even hold at £1.48p when 2 inferior test products come to market over the weekend.
If its so nailed, so nailed on, why doesn't everybody just continually pile in then?
Wyndrum, seriously! I think you should stick to the building society to keep your cash safe, or maybe hide it under the bed