Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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After ad good year for Protection (don't know about other markets) for Aviva, and seeing how L&G have done, my target price for tomorrow is 466p to 470p and div s/be 22.3p if aligned with H1 guidance, I think:
"We expect full year 2023 Group operating profit‡,1 to grow between 5% to 7% from £1,350m in 2022.
We are on track to exceed our Solvency II operating own funds generation‡ target of £1.5bn per annum by 2024 and our cash remittance‡ target of >£5.4bn cumulative (2022-24). We expect to deliver our target of £750m gross cost reduction by 2024 one year early.
We remain committed to delivering for our shareholders. Consistent with previous guidance, we expect to pay a dividend of c.£915m or c.33.4p for 2023, with low-to-mid single digit growth in the cash cost of the dividend thereafter."
Agreed it has to be the right purchases and I accept it was an international mish-mash of businesses that were sold. But those businesses still produced a combined several hundred million pounds worth of profit.
Something that will be missing from tomorrows results because due to pressure from Cevian who subsequently sold up pretty much all the liquidity from the sales was just given back to shareholders and a reduced share ownership. IMO a completely pointless exercise.
Depends on the quality of the acquisitions, and the prices paid for such …. previous aviva CEOs overpaid for a mish-mash of disparate assets that lacked focus and any meaningful synergy. blanc has been trimming away some of the accumulated nonsense.
I don't see the benefits of buybacks. Share price just drops accordingly or you end up with less shares in a smaller organisation. I would rather sensibly spend the money on acquisitions which generate larger profits in the future. The £5 billion return of funds previously just made Aviva smaller.
Share buy backs are not certain, it is just assumed they will do another one, don't count your chickens.
Thought they said 22.3p
I just hope after spending so much money on all these small acquisitions, they generate enough profit to pay for the annual buybacks , let’s hope we get one.
......on expected Final Divi announcement tomorrow anyone??
Great thread a v good read ...thanks all ....gla
What rumours?
Buy on the rumours sell on the news or what
March 26 2022 sp 458
April. 8. 2022 sp 425
May. 12. 2022 sp 381
March 9 2023 sp 462
March 20 2023 sp 411
Nice change of direction of the day, it was looking to continue falling but now up 2.5 pence…
Did someone have a sneaky look at the results today… No way that could happen…!
Still two more days (for some) before results.
I count both Probitas and Aviva as clients and also, just a fortnight ago, one of my employees went to work for the former! Probitas is a very solid purchase in my view and allows Aviva to have access to the Lloyd's Market. Remember though, some of the lines of business are much riskier so expect Probitas' results to swing around much more than Aviva's general business. But having a well capitalised parent will help. The 82% combined ratio is very good but we have been in a post-Covid mini hard market. Underwriters in my (small and very specialised) field are already bemoaning that it won't last as long as they would like.
But for Aviva, this is a good move and shows Amanda Blanc's vision. Definitely correct to sell off the complicated foreign based insurance companies (Singapore, Poland etc) and have international exposure through a Lloyd's syndicate.
Apparently it is not possible to use LSE's historical SP figures due to this:
Trotsky gave a good explanation which is worth repeating:
"
AoC, the 285p figure I quoted is not my figure; it's LSE's. Check the historical chart.
I've checked some AV purchases I made in Aug/Sep 2020 and they agree with the prices quoted on the historical chart, so I think it's safe to assume that LSE has not adjusted the older share prices to take account of the capital reduction in April 2022 when we each received 76 new shares for every 100 old shares held. So, I would asssume that your (sarcastic) "think about it?" comment would be in reference to multiplying LSE's figure of c285p by 100/76 (which would give your figure of c368p, allowing for some rounding differences).
Hmm, so far so good, but what about the c102p per old share (or c134p per new share) we received as part of the capital reduction? For a proper like-for-like comparison, you'd need to either add the c134p to today's price i.e. 368p vs c551p or deduct it from the adjusted July 2020 share price i.e. 234p vs 417p. You can't simply ignore the capital return or discount it as if it was a normal dividend return (it wasn't paid out of AV's current year profits and is non-recurring) simply because it's convenient for your argument.
For example, if (say) you'd originally bought 1,000 old shares at 284.5pps (LSE's quoted closing price) on 6 July 2020 they'd have cost you £2,845. Today, you'd own 760 new shares which, at 417pps, would be worth c£3,169. However, you'd have also received c£1,018 as part of the capital reduction. QED if you'd bought 1,000 old shares for £2,845 on 6 July 2020 and sold your 760 new shares today at c417p you'd have generated a total capital return of c£4,187 plus annual dividends of c£793 i.e. a capital return of c47% and/or an overall return of c75%. Not that bad when you consider Covid, war in Ukraine, Truss-enomics, rampant inflation, near zero growth etc. LGEN (run by a man) doesn't even bear comparison (unfortunately)."
Nor can I use my broker's figures for the same reason.
I am not sure why this share has been struggling over the past week. With results and dividend amount to be announced this Thursday I thought that the price would be a lot stronger. I think everyone is expecting good results. Unless of course investors have been taking their profits after the run up from 420 to 440?. Do we normally see a jump in the share price when the results are announced or is it a buy on rumour and sell on news type of share.
If you'd said that 5 years ago you'd be down 12-15% on the sp.
I think, however, this is indeed one of the strongest FTSE100 stocks. Likely to be around for a long time. A good hedge against the S&P500 taking a nose dive - although of course the FTSE will then follow.
Always buy quality and it will not let you down….dont worry too much about the price it will look cheap in 5 years time.
Great acquisition IMO. Probitas is a profitable and well managed business, but most importantly it is the vehicle to help Aviva accelerate its global, corporate, and specialty growth aspirations.
It gives Aviva access to international licences and the ability to transact more profitable business. An 82% combined loss ratio is excellent. I see no reason why Aviva can't increase the GWP to £1bn over the next 3 years, and if the loss ratio is maintained, that would add £180million to the bottom line.
Glad they’ve finally arranged a syndicate platform. Lloyd’s offers companies licences to transact in many territories without the overheads of having offices and staff there. The Probitas Syndicate certainly have been producing market leading results.
This provides almost game changing opportunities for serious expansion.
An excellent acquisition.
Seems a reasonable acquisition ..... I like most of what this lady is doing and I think she's making some great business decisions and I think its still a buy at this level
The share price always seems to bounce around between 370p and 470p, it’s good to see that we are at the higher end of the range right now but I am not interested in selling when the main dividend qualifying date is only about 5 weeks away, it pays for my summer holiday.
Had a couple lately that went up after XDD. I'd considered selling before the day but the price didn't rise enough so I didn't.
The rule is there are no rules.
.....wobbling again this morning after several weeks of steady progress. Must be the only share to go down as ex-div day approaches.
Don't expect much from Berkeley: he had no qualms about kicking the medical profession in the teeth despite having lauded them to the skies during Covid, so he won't bother about doing the same to us. Highest taxation regime for 70 years and this from the so called low tax Tory Party.
But the alternative........????