We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
… sure, but what I’m thinking about is how market will value aviva as & when blanc goes … will that be a mere hiccup or a nasty puke?
i’m a blanc fan, but my holding is in aviva, not blanc, and for all i know she might fall under a bus tomorrow or get poached to something much bigger - plenty of organisations would be happy to have her on board at this point.
It's not only the increase of say 5% in the dividend cash pot , but also the reduction in shares via the buyback process, so double benefit..
Add in some interest rates cuts in the 2H, and target a yield of 7%, based on the next dividend being say 35.6p, gives a target share price of £5 plus this time next year.
We are only at the level today where we should have been after the "return of capital" , but things went the wrong way after SV Bank and interest rates climbing.
The 2025 buy back will keep it above £5.
A good result in terms of profit and dividend but looking back revenue is only marginally lower than it was in 2020 but Operating Profit is down by 62%
Also and without having examined the financials in too much detail, I find it rather strange that, despite last year's share buyback, NAV has plummeted by 25% to 238p and by 60% on the 2020 figure.
No doubt there is an accounting Guru out there who can shed some light on the above
(I am assuming here that the figures shown in "Fundamentals" above have been spread accurately bit if one does the maths on the Income Statement, they don't seem to add up|)
Most successful CEOs form a cult following (warranted or not), succession doesn't normally factor that much in the market's thinking until the CEO announces their departure.
Sir John Harvey-Jones used to have a cult following at ICI back in the day (and ICI was highly rated as a result); it took the market a long time to realise that it was all just a cyclical commodity illusion and that JHJ hadn't acutally fundamentally changed anything at ICI (not long after he left ICI's profits plunged and it was unceremoniously broken up - the rump of which subsequently became Ineos).
A key issue for me is whether market will think going forward that it’s still about blanc personally, or whether market will believe that there are now sufficiently embedded cultural, structural and strategic changes from her leadership that would still persist after she goes. (otherwise, a lot of risk relating to one individual’s personal health / family issues etc.).
previously, AV. has been pretty pants at succession planning, hopefully blanc’s changing that too.
Bingobongo, that might be true in more cases than not but is never true in every case; it all depends on expectations. If the market's expectations of AV (and Blanc in particular) have changed then the share price can move up (or down) into a new trading range to reflect those new expectations. I think the market still doesn't fully appreciate what Blanc has done thus far but yesterday's results were perhaps a wake up call. Not only is AV now forecasting a mid-single digits increase in its future dividend cash pot but it's also forecasting its operating profits from continuing operations to increase from c£1.47bn in FY23 to c£2bn by FY26; a CAGR of ~11%. That's not too shabby for a dull and dowdy UK-listed company. Of course, it's one thing to promise and quite another to deliver but I think Blanc has now proven (to most people) that she can deliver
my ***-packet maths:
£300m buy back at current approximate sp of £4.60 = 65.22m shares off the table. against shares in issue of 2.74bn, this is about 2.4%.
likely explains why aviva stated they are now targeting mid-single-figure growth in the dividend as it should increase returns by about this amount on average. theoretically.
This share has momentum right now, the results were good, the outlook is good, the dividend is good, the dividend qualifying date is about a month away. I think this will get to 490p in the coming weeks. Crazy to think this share price was around 370p not long ago, most of us knew it was unfairly low, Aviva are super solid making huge profit year in year out.
While shares drop after ex divday they never drop what the div is imo and 2 days later have a bump up,
So pointless selling I have found due to stamp duty etc.
I sold one lot of my shares 13000 on the Wednesday before results at £4.56. I thought it would be a "Buy on Rumour" sell on results type of day. I was wrong......I then sold another lot of 13000 on results day at £4.68.......and a further lot of 11000 at £4.74......I had the feeling that the profit takers would move in and take their profits. I was right. I am not sure how the share will perform in the next week or so and if it will move higher as we get to the ex-dividend date. If it drops back to £4.40 I will buy back in again....but even though the dividend is very tempting, I would probably sell before the ex-div date...as I think the price will fall back after.
I too sold a third yesterday and will sell more before dividend. Too much can happen before the next divi and this as with many more shares do not hang on to their results gains
A very broad answer would be no:
The point yesterday was this particular stock is, it does not hold on to sudden uplifts in price rises, if this stock suddenly rises because of some good news, for me and so it would seem others, it’s a strong sell signal, what is the point in in keeping a position on a share you know is going to fall back to somewhere near where it started. The reward is far greater to sell looking at the history of “this stock”, But when it comes to the Dividend ,again with this particular stock at this time of year (22.3 pence per) the risk is far greater than the reward IMO…
This does require some previous knowledge of this share as does any transaction with any stock, so keep watching like me for around 43 years… and still get things wrong !
Good luck with your OWN decisions …😇 Also take into account CGT… but you can trade within your isa or multiple accounts/ family/ friends ,etc. DYOR.
On this basis, would you make more selling just before ex div date, then buy back few days, weeks later ?
I think trading is all about the timing/experience with particular stocks.
Today with Aviva , every year this share rises on the good news But never ever holds, this why most, not all will sell on the good news , this contributes to its fall , I sold on a set TP @480: it did reach 483 for a few moments and down hill from there.. look at the history of this share, it’s quite predictable and never holds a sudden uplift in price, most traders already know this…
It’s not a share to hold unless you enjoy snakes and ladders but happy with your 8% +/- if you are that’s fine too.
For some an opportunity to double their dividends.
What TheTrosky says plus...
Whilst the dividends paid into your pension are free from tax; the money paid FROM your pension counts as income for tax purposes. Hence you pay tax at your marginal income tax rate.
You need to remember that dividends are paid net of Corporation Tax - so have been already taxed at (generally) 25%.
Labour supporters have Gordon Brown to thank for this. In the "old days" the pension fund could reclaim the corporation tax paid on the dividend - so that when the income was paid then it was only paid at income tax rates.
(Just to be clear - the Conservatives have a lot to "fess" up to. This one is on Labour though.)
If you hold shares in a general investment account then the dividends are taxed at either 8.75% (basic rate) or 33.75% (additional rate).
For all the short term traders………..
“The big money is not in the buying and selling, it’s in the waiting”
Charlie Munger
Now Aviva is largest holding in my ISA p/f at around 13% (and showing modest profit) closely followed by LGEN at around 11% (at present showing small loss). Not ideal but can live with it!
Just to be clear. You don't pay any dividend tax on dividends received within your personal pension plan (the dividends are exempt, like an ISA)
Income arising within your personal pension plan is exempt from tax. You can take 25% of your pension pot tax-free; this can either be taken as one lump sum or as multiple lump sums up to 25% of your pension pot. Your pension provider will then compute any tax due on your remaining payments (using a tax code provided to them by HMRC which allows for any personal allowance, state pension and/or other regular income) and deduct any tax due from the payment you receive (like PAYE).
You do via your tax return for '24/25
Who passes the 8.75% to HMRC. ? My current sole Tax Payer is my Pension provider and takes 20%.
A lot of profit taking today, hopefully it will now rise to the occasion of exdiv after those good results, I will be sitting tight here
Now sinking slowly but surely-bets on us finishing up in the red??
What a conundrum this share is-good divs. granted (only £500 allowed before taxable thanks to Comrade Hunt) but when there are regular bouts of significant capital reduction makes a mockery of it all.
Sorry, not just this
Yeah, disappointing that (just not) this gets sold into. Same to a lesser extent with KIE today