Sapan Ghai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
my ***-packet maths:
£300m buy back at current approximate sp of £4.60 = 65.22m shares off the table. against shares in issue of 2.74bn, this is about 2.4%.
likely explains why aviva stated they are now targeting mid-single-figure growth in the dividend as it should increase returns by about this amount on average. theoretically.
2022/23 year end divs were cancelled due to overexagerated performance that fell apart. 2023 mid year div was also not reinstated.
No idea what y/e 2023/24 divs will be; crystal ball got damaged and wasn't insured.
Snippits of news I'd not seen before
£200m cost cutting plans - https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/mg-targets-200m-in-cost-savings-as-assets-drop-28bn-20230309
Charlotte Heiss, New member to Exec Committee - https://www.lawnews.co.uk/legal-insight/appointments/mg-announces-the-appointment-of-charlotte-heiss-as-its-new-general-counsel-and-company-secretary/
Rumours of stabilisation of interest rates may also be giving some stocks a welcome relief.
Penny knew they were in the **** back in November, hence she sold about £250k shares when the share price peaked about 222p. I missed that; I've made it a rule to never trust a share when the directors start offloading.
Down about 30% here and my 2nd biggest holding after Aviva. Long hold and will look to bring my average down during 2023/24 tax year with the belief insurers are cyclical (seen it many times) and dividend will be reinstated at some point, albeit I expect at about half the previous level. But yes, I agree it appears they bet their reinsurance chips on red, and the wheel came up black. Pretty damning of those steering the ship.
I'd maxed my isa allowance with averaging down on DLG over this last year. Now at about 225p breakeven.
Have this morning sold my DLG shares from my ISA and rebought in my regular shares account, as with no divi there's no tax considerations. Have used the ISA money to top up AV. shares for the dividend.
Will resell and rebuy into the ISA when the new tax year kicks in. I've no doubt the divi will be reinstated quickly here, and the share price will start to recover when it does. Same happened at AV. when the final 2019 divi was cancelled 3 years ago at the start of the pandemic.
IMO & DYOR
To support the c.40% increased dividend in 2023 onwards. These moves are the foundations for that action, and so will also (theoretically) support an increased share price
Yes, but i think you get £12k capital gains tax free allowance per annum vs £2k divi allowance, so for most I suspect using the cap gains allowance would be more tax efficient as not everyone's shares will be protected by an isa
As someone previously commented, the share price will only move significantly when there are new developments. Part one of this should come 4th April once the announcement is made which confirms the arrangements for the B-Share proposal. Part two will be if/when it is approved by shareholders on 9th May, the same date as the AGM. This pushes it forwards to part three, the cut-off date for share ownership, confirmed as 6pm London time 13th May for payment no later than 31st May.
I personally don't think the B-shares are fully priced in, only because none of us yet know for sure the actual terms of the proposed agreement. We are only speculating, as is the rest of the market. We've had indicated a 4-to-3 consolidation as an example calculation to maintain share price stability; it could yet turn out to be a 5-to-4, or 6-5 or something else as deemed appropriate to maintain SP with the reduced £3.75bn cash held from the bottom line.
Waiting for the blue touch paper to be lit 4th April and 9th May. Until then, keep reading the tea leaves , and hope the awful situation out East gets sorted positively for all the right humanitarian reasons.
Share price should reflect market cap; assuming the company value stays same then share price will increase. In theory.
I agree I think sp will go up to reflect the increased dividend, but really it'll just remain status quo mcap. I don't believe the b-shares are fully priced in yet. Once announcement is made 4th April about the b shares then it'll fly for the days to the record date 13th May.
And for whoever was bashing Amanda for her £500k purchase at £3.80ish, seems she saw the bargain price and has made a tidy 10% paper profit. That on top of the £1m purchase when she came on board. Just wish I had those levels of cash to invest in the first place!
Since the share price crept over £4 mid-December, the buyback seems to have stalled somewhat. Ave. buyback price to date is c.400.5p.
There has only been one RNS reported in 2022 for a paltry £6,400 / 1,525 shares (they were buying £9m-11m shares daily late Nov/early Dec)
My point is Aviva have committed to spending £1b on the buyback, to complete before 31st March, and there's still c.£340m in the pot to spend. It took 10 weeks at the start of the buyback in August to spend £340m, and we're now about 10 weeks to the end of March.
Either, Aviva are not reporting the buyback in daily RNS's, or someone has put the brakes on with the shareprice now over 400p. So will Aviva rescind their direction to spend the extra £250m, or will someone soon open the taps and there's soon to be £7m shares a day being hoovered up?
Aside, I sliced a chunk at 426p hoping to buy them back sub-400p. Opps; seems we've got a new support point here at 434p building.
"(probably teetotal and celibate)"
Excuse me? I'm just giving an update on where we are with buyback. No need to be abusive. If you don't like the facts then sell up and leave.
I have a sell target at £4.30 for first tranche. Clearly you are more optimistic than I am.
£630m bought-back so far, leaving just £120m to go. If Aviva continue do a below-average £6m per day then we'll be done in just 20 trading days; well before end of Jan, let alone Feb.
Current ave. buyback on my spreadsheet shows £4.0047
The 'Total Voting Rights' RNS's issued at the end of each month have shown a decreasing number of shares in issue, so I believe these are not being held on account by Aviva and awaiting cancellation, but instead are being cancelled with each tranche purchased. I think there is a delay between the buyback to the shares then being cancelled which is what may make folks think they are being held on account, but I believe this is not the case.
Updates due out later this week on performance and progress during the most recent quarter. Wonder if we'll get any more indications on the "return to shareholders"?
Personally I don't think any Special Divi is priced in to the current share price (if there's a Special...), nor is the buyback or EPS. It's a strange ol' market right now. I was sceptical of Aviva selling off so many overseas businesses since Amanda took over, but it's done and is now in the past. I just feel the possible short term value is not reflected in current SP.
Will be interesting to hear what they have to say for themselves on Thursday.
Crossed the 50% threshold with Wednesday's buys. At this rate Aviva will be through the full £750m a month early by mid-January instead of the anticipated mid-Feb in the RNS announcements.
Including yesterday's (13th Oct) numbers....
73,567,224 shares bought under the buyback for £299,187,129 = 406.69p ave price paid
Just short of £172k worth of buy backs to date. Yesterday was the biggest £-worth so far at nearly £9.5m bought and cancelled.
Selling GI would feel like hollowing the business from the core. The silver is sold, that'd be selling the soft furnishings and decor!
For those interested, as of yesterday's RNS, Aviva have completed £91.5m of the "up-to-£750m" share buyback programme.
IMO - Aviva are cancelling all shares purchased under the buyback and so reducing the shares in circulation, increasing the value per share in the process. Aviva will keep buying up this low hanging fruit until exhausted, but I'm expecting the final dividend return per share to reflect the more smaller pool of shareholders.
Leadership under Blanc is so much stronger than Tulloch. The next step is critical into 2022; I can't see Aviva buying out anyone significant after current disposals unless they do another Friends Life type deal. There's no more family silver to sell. So what's the next move going to be?
Is that the first nearly half billion £ debt being settled?