Member Info for drunkensod

If there is resistance at 350p then it's being tested again and again over the last few days. Just tickling up over 351p just now. I've a sell order set at 385p just to release a couple of grand, and with Trump finally conceding to Biden and a third covid vaccine having UK approval, I'm hoping to cash those few chips shortly. Holding just over 6000 Aviva chips to date.

Feels the final full-stops of the US Presidential race and the possible Democrat control of the Senate is giving the markets the stability they've been craving over the last few months. Giving them all the freedom to start chasing rabbits again.

Lockdown 3 is an utter pi**er, but holding faith will claw back to the £4 mark before mid-year. Or even sooner if Final Div announcement in April is to be celebrated (and bloody paid this time!!)

For my 2-pence worth, as a LTH I'm disappointed in the failure to address the missing 2019 year end dividend; I find that a gaping chasm in my expectations which a 7p interim divi fails to fill.

However, from a new investor perspective, Aviva must look very attractive. Good rate of return at these levels, and indications already of targeted "low to middle single digit" dividend growth each year.

What we have seen is a line drawn in the sand to separate the past from the future. We are back at 0-hours on the clock, and all movements will be to take the company forwards from this standpoint. Dividends will be lower pence-per-share than before, but a 30% cut when the share price is down 30% maintains the rate of return from today's standpoint.

Not that I expect a stronger business and +20% shareprice movement to c.390p will result in a +20% divi, but it would be nice.........

Currently overdue both the 2019 Final divi, and the 2020 interim divi. My hope is a special Divi to cover both. Investors are down around 28-30p per share so far in 2020 but the cash reserves to pay it are still there.
(I'm not counting the 2nd 2019 interim div as anything significant)

Lets at least hope for payment of the 2019 Final div which was promised and then withheld under Maurice Tulloch.

It does feel like there's a few £billion sloshing about in the bucket just now, and Aviva's Covid exposure in the current Supreme court hearing is expected to be relatively insignificant, and likely offset by the fact that motor claims will have reduced from fewer journeys being made during Lockdown #1.

Trading update in a week's time on the 26th Nov. I'm expecting a Divi announcement (not Pref Shares); will be annoyed if there's no update in that respect. But IMHO the markets, Aviva included, have turned the corner and confidence is returning.

Just no-one mention Brexit........

Certainly appears to be there is more positive momentum currently. For my own curiosity, where are you pulling your 50 day MA and 200 day MA data from to draw the charts showing overlap?

Sorry Brilltrader, but you're wrong. The 9.5m are for employee share saving schemes; not just the management but all employees. Had a similar scheme in a firm I worked for previously, encouraging staff to own a share for the business at a discounted share price. It is nothing to do with incentivising the management.

3.98 billion shares in issue currently, so this is dilution of about 0.3% (if my mental maths is right). Will have next to zero impact on the share price.

The Board said they'd be making an announcement in Q4 about the suspended 2019 Final Divi. The money is still in the bank, and we're now in Q4. Honouring the divi announced at back in April '20 (21.4p if my notes are right) would surely cause a huge rerate.

From the last few weeks I'd imagine most have averages over £4. Possibly only traders or those lucky enough to have held large cash reserves with averages below 400p.
IMO, I agree that these are bargain times if you have the funds to invest. All my capital is in the markets, so I've been hammered since March, but I've still bought another £700 of Aviva since lockdown started, at an average of about 245p which I'm more than happy with.
It will recover, and I'm in no rush right now. Holding about 5000 shares now which will net me a nice divi payment when it's re-established Q4; I just hope it's a special divi at about the intended 21.4p which was withdrawn.
Solid company making £billions globally, and with people staying at home then it's personal and commercial insurance exposures have been reduced for 3 months which should have resulted in reduced losses in March, April and May (people not crashing their cars and suffering whiplash, or getting injured at work).

Good Luck DC in clawing back your £3k. It's hard work! So easy to lose money. Takes a lot more effort to come out on top from trading.

I tried day trading on AIM in the past; look at my posting history. REM, VAST, RRR, UKOG etc. Complete rollercoaster of emotions. In the space of a year I started with £10k, doubled it to £20k, then dropped to about £6k and eventually cashed in my chips once clawed back to £10k. It was both exhilarating and devastating, and not something I will venture into again.
Looking to build a dividend portfolio now, and always been heavy on Aviva as financially very secure and historically 6-7% return (after Mark Wilson's initial rate cut) has been rock solid in recent years.

L&G fell over 50% from over 300p to under 150p, so I don't see the L&G board celebrating an extra 1% here or there over Aviva. All well and good highlighting the greater swings northwards of other stocks, but you need to also comment on the apparent greater volatility on both sides of the coin relating to the L&G share price.

Aviva has always been less volatile. It tracks the FTSE rises, it tracks the FTSE falls. Other shares will have greater swings for better or worse. Aviva is rarely in the Top 10 movers in either direction.

At these bargain basement levels, I'm still buying. And Maurice will want his bonus, you can be sure. Many firms are holding back divi cash right now and rightly so; look at the banks. Covid-19 will pass, divi's will be reinstated (I envisage a special divi in Q4) and the share price will recover past 400p IMHO.

Day trade if you like; you'll win some, lose some. I've tried before, but don't have the liquidity to make it worthwhile after trading fees. But those buying now with patience cannot lose from here IMO.

I'm not in this for trading, I'm in for divi's and building a holding which will eventually support my aim of retirement before I turn 60. This is a golden time to buy if you can IMO; unfortunately pretty much all my funds are invested in markets so they've been eroded about 30% across all holdings, but confident they will rebound.

My understanding is Maurice has confirmed explicitly to Aviva staff when questioned that the final divi will not be cut. Aviva is exceptionally cash-rich and solvent. Cash-flow is currently not an issue at all.

Bought another £700 worth just after payday; couldn't spare any more at this time. Will make a profit on that easily once we're on the other side of this virus.

Gutted I've not got cash to buy at these levels. This will recover to over £4 within a year or sooner IMO.
Drop £10k on a solid FTSE company making stacks of cash, enjoy a confirmed dividend now at nearly 10%, and a 33%+ return on investment when it recovers back over £4 = c.£4333 total return. Gobsmacked we're down so low.
Not a single riser on the FTSE350 at time of writng. We might not yet be at the bottom, but at this level you can't not make money from buying now if you hold for the turnaround. Again IMHO.

It's in today's RNS titled Dividend Declaration

xdiv 24 Apr

UK - 2019 had no major weather events, floods or storms, so I'd expect insurance results to be positive.
Retained profitable Asian business; results will be closed off prior to coronavirus issues in china.
Canada seems to be coming from a deflated position and europe also seems to perform consistently.

Cashflow is good, few £billion in the bank. Apart from market sentiment towards Tulloch, I see little downside. If he can enthuse the market in the way Mark Wilson eventually did then I've every confidence in Aviva (although I vividly remember the divi cut soon after Moss left and Wilson stepped in).

Yeah, I'm positive

Hope you're right. I bought a few of these when the price was higher so I've topped up today at 119.7 to bring my average down to 126.1. Considering the amount of exploritory work being carried out, and in areas seeming more promising than the Rayong well, can see this being only a matter of time before another decent resource strike.

I've only been looking at the stock markets for a few weeks, so I'm still somewhat green to it all but learning fast. SMDR was one of my first trades on the hope that the Rayong Well was their least likely site for success, so if they hit reserves elsewhere it'll help raise the SP. I'm in for the medium term, hoping for a 200p when they are successful, but the one certainty I've quickly realised in oil and gas is uncertainty. I'm needing 144.2p just to break even, so another duster would sting a bit for now!