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Started: OhDearAlan, 21 Jun 2024 13:28
Last post: HarChris, 21 Jun 2024 21:39
The update doesn't signal that a deal is imminent which gives traders the confidence to dump with a view to re-enter a few weeks down the road, that never helps in regards to the sp reaction.
There's a proper company being built here for the future but Anthony is doing an awful job on certain fronts and if it wasn't for the high tin prices the share price would be closer to 3p than 4p - I agree with your sentiments, it's time to hear more from him now.
Agree with your balanced view HarChris.
I would like a brief interview by AV just to explain the strategic new process thinking and what has been the main reason no deal came forward after a year.
Investors deserve a little more clarity otherwise sentiment drifts, maybe a bland update, but don't forget there is lots going on and the likelihood of some more good news in the pipeline in the coming months ahead.
I agree that this seems like an overreaction although I can understand why some investors are losing patience
The main disappointment is slow progress on the lithium front, the process to find a partner (now partners) seems to be going on forever but I'm sure there will be news on this soon, maybe before the next quarterly operational update. The second disappointment is higher than expected AISC but that'll come back down through the rest of the year. The margin being seen, even at say $28k aisc, is the best Andrada's seen in 18+ months. And it's even more guaranteed now with ~25% hedged at $33k, although obviously limits the upside slightly if tin prices take off.
I thought this was the best bit of news in this update:
'Further assessment and modelling of the integrated plant has resulted in an increase in the planned petalite production tonnage from 30 000tpa to between 40 000tpa and 50 000tpa.'
Call it an additional 15000tpa petalite at $1500/t, that's an extra $22.5m.
I can understand the fall but 52 weeks lows despite having secured Orion finance deal within that time frame, DBN financing, closed to Namibian bank financing conclusion and very consistent tin operations with improving margins seems excessive to me.
Agree, I topped up again this morning.
Operationally all is as expected, they always seem to deliver, but this damned Strategic Process is killing us.
The comms around it have been appalling from the very start. Let's not forget, ATM themselves said in June 2023 - "The entire strategic process is targeted to conclude at the end of September 2023."
There has been no meaningful update as to why it'll be a year late, and why the scope has now changed - that's just no good enough.
Cracking company
What an opportunity to buy in at 3.9p
A no brainer at these prices
Started: GHOST61, 21 Jun 2024 14:00
Last post: GHOST61, 21 Jun 2024 14:00
Kick in the Crown Jewels has the same effest
Started: woodfromthetrees, 21 Jun 2024 12:06
Last post: rgbuk, 21 Jun 2024 13:24
Certainly think AV needs to have a conference call for shareholders ASAP, there’s a lot that needs clarifying from my standpoint.
This is the first time that I don’t feel AV has been totally upfront with details on the partnership and as a shareholder this makes me feel a little uncomfortable.
As for the tin side I’m ok with progress there. I certainly get the feeling that if this damn partnership news had never come up in the first place the share price would be significantly higher than it is now, it’s now turned into a millstone round the neck!
Who knows Tiger but, the EU should be throwing some serious money around in a few months time. Unless he is bare faced lying then it's the only thing that makes sense to me. I don't think he is a bare faced liar.
A couple of EU Lithium plays have signed deals in the past week, a few others are waiting for their grant applications to be approved. So the timing makes sense, it's just a shame we have been waiting so long, I hate being in the dark as much as anybody. I imagine AV didn't even want to talk about the strategic review in that update but he has to at least mention it. I agree it seems a bit foolish from where we are sitting to be relying on the EU machine, but there must be a good reason for it (if I am right). I guess we'll know soon enough.
AV was involved over at BMN with Fortune and look how that turned out. These people like to blow hot air a lot and over promise
Sharechap,
if that theory is correct (and i dont think it is) then that is a dreadful decision to pass on eye watering offers to wait for the EU to sort themselves out. why would anyone do that, even if as you say "see what you can get for free" (not sure if that means the partner or us).
eye watering is eye watering, its prob got far more to do with the lithium price and the slow moving nature.
is there anything better than eye watering ?
Whilst I'm disappointed with the lack of meaningful progress on the surface of things, I suspect the delay with the Lithium will be to do with the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. The EU are due to be dishing out grants by the end of the year and I wouldn't be surprised if we are partnering with a company that is waiting to see what they can get for free - otherwise the 12month + process doesn't make sense as he was getting offers galore last year apparently (probably Chinese). This is possibly why the strategic review has now incorporate other metals, maybe it's all related to getting as much money from the EU as possible and ticking as many boxes as they can, which will hopefully mean a much better deal for us shareholders.
This might also help explain the almost 180 degree turn in keeping shareholders abreast of what's going on by ATM over the past 12 months. Probably a lot of plates spinning and having to tread a fine line politically. I really hope I'm right with my guess and long term holders will get rewarded in the end.
There was me thinking I'd never be able to get my average below 5p...
Anthony viljoeon has a lot of explaining if he would like to communicate with investors properly
Hi TDT - yep, we were both hoping Horizonte would be very successful, given their steady progress, large Instos on board, etc., yet disaster ensued through deception, as we all know now; at least, Andrada is already producing a growing output of tin / some lithium and tantalum with cash to keep going, for now, anyway.
Was hoping Andrada would recoup much of that painful experience, given where they are today but AV's earlier 'hype' over all the partnering interest in them looks misplaced after today's RNS. They could still deliver but it's going to take longer than we were led to believe, unfortunately - hence this morning's sp reaction - sasa.
As soon as an RNS doesn’t start with ‘We are pleased’ you know it’s a not a good one
To add to what TDT just said Sodium's lattice structure prevents it from being a compact energy source like lithium, so the battery would be less efficient and also huge
regarding todays RNS let me know if you want me to say anything, would only be a repeat of what i have said before on mr eye watering.
Hi sasa43
We were both in Horizonte so it might be a hang over from that investment that's coloured my view here. I could be wrong but after reading the RNS and having closely followed things these past 12 months it seems to me like there's been a change in emphasis. Then again WTFDIK.
saigonsally
Sodium will be used in batteries which have a static applications. It will not replace lithium where weight to energy density is critical.
TDT
TDT, I have to agree with you 100%. And at this rate by the time ATM have lithium to sell the world will have switched from lithium to sodium.
Last post: Richyf3, 21 Jun 2024 10:07
Suprising how many come out of the wood work spouting negative views haven’t seen these for the last 6 months … weird that is
Started: CCC., 21 Jun 2024 07:17
Last post: MoreCheesePlease, 21 Jun 2024 09:54
Somnamna. Your other share Cey has dropped 12% since April.
Don’t give up your day job.
I’m not interested in finding a partner, shame it is being used as a stick to bash the share price.
I would prefer a share price that is rising not one that has just dropped 12% on the RNS
Am I the only one on here who prefers a delay to the strategic outcome until the macro environment for Lithium is hopefully much more favourable than is the current situation.
Surely it’s much better to await for a great commercial deal for the Lithium asset likely in a few years time than to enter into a crap deal now being caused by the depressed Lithium price, etc.
Our lithium ain’t going anywhere in the meantime…..
Not gonna blow the doors off the SP but all steps in the right direction as far as i read it.... 👍
Started: MunnieTorx, 21 Jun 2024 08:22
Last post: Killerpidgeon, 21 Jun 2024 08:43
I see serial shorter Munnie has joined the board….
ATM kicking the partnering plan down the road to infinity yet again. Seems unlikely they will secure anything and simply string this out for months and months.
This will land somewhere in the 3p range.
Over all generally underwhelming results in this update to boot. Market will sell off.
3p within 4 weeks likely imo.
SELL.
Started: OhDearAlan, 17 Jun 2024 10:29
Last post: bohercom, 20 Jun 2024 15:48
Some good chunky buys through this afternoon - all showing as sells on some platforms. 4.64 was buy price.
I think you're getting bit ahead - the ore sorter in the pre-concentration circuit won't be commissioning until 1st quarter 2025, and the 2,600tpa tin production rate is targeted for April 2025.
I'm keen to hear the Lithium and Tantalum numbers though, and what the status of the lithium off take agreement is for the pilot plant production - it was previously, like everything else, "progressing well".
No idea why my post keeps getting cut off... Assuming $8000/t Sn margin and $1000/t petalite margin we should be looking at $50 mil profit (excluding Ta)? Assuming $25,000/t Sn AISC
Sn AISC
Also hoping for an update... I think any Li deal is probably dead for now given the low spot prices, perhaps they'll confirm that it's dead and put us out of our misery.
Personally I'm more interested in production numbers. I would assume the sorter is commissioned, along with the Li test plant, so we should be looking at 2500tpa Sn, ~80tpa TaO2 & 30,000 tpa petalite all on stream, so optimistic that we may be getting to some real revenue (maybe even profit?) that'll allow them to start looking at the Phase 2 expansion. Hopefully Sn AISC is
Yes, if they were sales it was promising to see they didn't really cause an impact - someone wanted them !!
My screens showed them as buys - the price was also up 2% as they went through so i'm not quite sure what they were! The size of them didn't cause a big impact... all to be revealed!
I think they were sales weren't they ?
Bit surprised to see a chunk of 1.75m being sold this close to the next update, but who knows, could be for any reason.
Some good lumpy purchases coming through in the last half hour. A sign of news?
On the move …..
Started: Copper1, 14 Jun 2024 22:43
Last post: CCC., 15 Jun 2024 13:43
Good afternoon.
That is a 600% increase from today's price.
This was the write up from a video interview a couple months ago as a reminder...
" Andrada Mining Ltd (AIM:ATM, OTC:AFTTF) CEO Anthony Viljoen discusses the company's expansion plans and the promising potential of its flagship Uis mine in Namibia with Proactive's Stephen Gunnion.
In a production and strategic process update, Andrada noted it has made significant progress in developing what is believed to be one of the world's most preeminent polymetallic deposits, with lithium being a key focus alongside tin and tantalum. The company has adopted a phased approach to expansion, emphasizing conservative planning and rapid execution.
Viljoen said tin revenues and throughput at the plant doubled last year, as integrating ore sorting technology showed positive results. Andrada has also commenced tantalum production and established a pilot plant for lithium, achieving on-spec lithium concentrate, a feat unique among AIM-listed lithium companies. This development marks a transition from a junior small-cap to a mid-tier mining producer.
Viljoen mentioned non-binding offers for partnership interests in the lithium project, underscoring lithium's versatility and potential across various industries, including batteries and ceramics. The company is considering partnerships with major players in the lithium market to accelerate long-term development and expose the company to downstream opportunities.
Looking ahead, Andrada aims to unlock the scale potential of its deposits, leveraging revenues and profits for expansion with financing partners. Key milestones for 2024 include finalizing strategic partnerships, ramping up tantalum supply, expanding lithium resources, and engaging in further metallurgical test work and partnerships, particularly following the EU-Namibia roundtable participation. "
6 months already into 2024 so news can't be too far off.
It's been a long wait, maybe too long without better clarification coms regarding partner, lets hope our investment starts seeing some reward very soon.
Hannam and partners, posted a new research note on Andrada set a 27p target price.
https://x.com/research_tree/status/1801504900536234412?t=kieRnlXXopSGX5jUHwmx-w&s=19
Started: Catchingpigeons, 15 Jun 2024 10:49
Last post: Catchingpigeons, 15 Jun 2024 10:49
Good find fella , u should be in the PR & marketing team . 👊 I’d have thought an ops update must be due by month end hopefully .
Started: Steegee, 14 Jun 2024 09:59
Last post: damonhill, 14 Jun 2024 15:10
FYI JCEP
https://chamberofmines.org.na/blog-post/andrada-mining-limited-a-sustainable-partner-in-namibia/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2lxTCGb_M0cHigib7D4fsGL83eUw-7HFRSTucYeySsmn7LwU0ni69IWKA_aem_AWBPqeNQEZ88H5Use4L4m6XPPlr3bL72EYSyFXAfvhSwfkh2sRhYtF2eNP6KlByaVKLmo3nDagyfEBERFVPLU3yO
I would'nt get too excited 'soon'.
GLA
I don't have FB. What does it say ?
Started: bohercom, 13 Jun 2024 09:39
Last post: TrickyDicky2, 13 Jun 2024 17:05
Pekingduck
Agreed. AV has been on the pot for far too long. When he first made the "eye watering" comment and brought Barclays on board to sift the wheat from the chaff it seemed like it was all going to progress to a positive conclusion with the minimum of effort. It now seems like its akin to trying to push a bowling ball through a letterbox. He either needs to explain the reasons for the delay or he needs to deliver.
TDT
Hi bohercom - I've put the long delay in confirming the 'partnering' outcome down to so many, apparently, unsolicited interested parties showing their interest in us; these will inevitably take more time than usual to work through, post Barclays' assistance in this regard but even so, 12 months is a long time to sort the 'wheat from the chaff'...
The delay has been undermining sentiment, of course but with the sp reflecting that, any decent arrangement, if and when it's announced, should prompt a decent rebound. If, however, AV's considering an offer for the co, bearing in mind he's a big holder, well, say no more...
At least, there's no premium to evaporate upon either revelation; hopefully, a 'non event' isn't the outcome, otherwise pekingduck's sober analysis looks all the more chastening - sasa.
@pekingduck @sasa43 - I always appreciate your views on here, thanks. Good to see you're both still invested.
I agree with you both - this has been a "jam tomorrow" company for too long now. The market is giving no premium for "potential" due to the way the commercial strategy has played out over the past couple of years.
My major concern now is reaction to the Strategic Process. Having gone on for so long, I just don't get the feeling that it's going to be "eye-watering" when it comes, and the way it's been setup, anything less than that will be a disappointment.
I am still positive, obviously having topped up today, but I honestly thought large scale growth would be closer on the horizon by now than it is.
Hi bohercom - I got into this around the same time as you, I see, paying some 6p overall, fwiw...
Like you, it's frustrating that, despite the Co's progress on the production front and encouraging development / exploration news, the sp remains pretty friendless, even now, as we await the outcome of the various partnering negotiations which are still ongoing, we're told. These have been underway for a year now which we're assured 'are going well'...
Given the profundity of the outcome, let's hope our patience will be rewarded to see a material re-rating of the shares, at last - sasa.
They're good observations bohercom, and when you look at the progress made operationally vs the market's reaction to that, it's definitely been a very frustrating 3 year period for shareholders.
But there are reasons for that. ATM has issued abt 440m new shares since march 21, at 6p and 5p, and no doubt a host of warrants and options that have yet to be converted. So the number of shares out has gone up by abt 40% (at least..).
The market cap on the first issue was £67m and on the second one £76m, vs £74m currently, so despite raising over £24m in these offerings, the market cap has actually gone down. The market basically saying that ATM hasn't converted that cash into enterprise value - not surprising as it has been loss making every year since the IPO and has burnt through much of the cash it has raised in opex costs. Even the latest round of finance through Orion only plugs the gaps in the income statement until some time in 2025, so if ATM can't turn it around and start producing +ve free cash flows in the current FY, it's going to have to find further finance next year, again.
Some will disagree with this assessment but this the actual bottom line, and the market knows it. Hence 4.5p currently on the bid.
Time for AV to p+ss or get off the pot.
Started: Richyf3, 13 Jun 2024 15:11
Last post: HarChris, 13 Jun 2024 16:29
I first bought shares here in 2023 around 5p primarily for the lithium, with the tin (and tantalum) considered as bonuses however in recent times I've come to realise just how important a commodity tin is to be exposed to. There are plenty of factors that mean that buyers globally could withstand considerably higher tin prices, probably as much as $60k/t without there being an incentive to look for substitutions... and that's not something true for many other commodities that are set to see growing demand due to the energy transition. The article that best explains why tin prices will likely remain strong for years to come is linked below:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/inelastic-demand-obvious-new-supply-create-perfect-07p3c/?trackingId=V3SaugIKQeGvvpLsDoX2Xg%3D%3D
I've started adding and adding over the past few weeks ready for better news flow through H2 of this year.
I entered here around March 2022, and buying around the 6p mark, though I have managed to buy some tranches cheaper. I must admit I would of thought we'd be a bit more approeption on the SP now, than since I joined.
However, ATM is my biggest holding, I see this as an opportunity to top up, I am liking the size of my holding and have a figure in mind I want to achieve holding wise. I am hoping the SP will eventually reflect in appreciation, but as Peking says there has been more shares allocated and the length of the Strategic deal is taking a very long time, the market isn;t rating us and I can see some reason why that is.
I do think at some point the nes has to come and then we shall gather some momentum, when that is I don't know, but news drives sentiment, which we require in abundance at the moment!
Some good posts reflecting the company position. The response to partner news will be interesting that’s for sure , you can’t take away that tin lithium etc will see huge demand in coming years the infrastructure they have and putting in place will reward us all in the long run .
Tin prices cemented well above 30k great move today up 4% yet we still have sellers . Absolutely crazy that some still don’t understand the company’s dynamics
Started: TrickyDicky2, 12 Jun 2024 09:02
Last post: sasa43, 12 Jun 2024 10:33
Good find, TDT - nice to see we got a decent mention / some exposure...
Hopefully, AV's long awaited RNS on the partnering negotiations will give our sp a significant boost into the limelight to prompt an overdue re-rating, given the assets and potential here - sasa.
See 10th. on the list.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tin-stocks-10-biggest-producers-2024
TDT
Started: Catchingpigeons, 12 Jun 2024 07:15
Last post: Catchingpigeons, 12 Jun 2024 07:15
Off to a good start today it’s been a long wait here but hopefully the tide will turn pretty soon GLA https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M
Started: swazers, 10 Apr 2024 22:30
Last post: swazers, 10 Jun 2024 10:15
As I predicted support for #ATM appears to be building https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1800093543731695658 https://www.tradingview.com/x/jlo5c9kA/
#ATM Updated chart idea https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1799765866005061917 https://www.tradingview.com/x/aQsDs8ws/
Guys, I made a video podcast with my ideas on #ATM https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1794323824592495039
Personally I’ll be looking with interest at the tungsten results, with China producing well over 80% of the worlds supply this could be a key metal being produced outside of China.
Indeed, the copper will be interesting, possible only a couple of weeks away from results - last time it was about 2 months from the lab and went in start of April
Started: Copper1, 9 Jun 2024 22:02
Last post: Copper1, 9 Jun 2024 22:02
There will be an operational update rns landing anytime soon,For period ending 31st of may,they have usually been posted on different dates in the past ranging from the 14th to the 26th of june.Can't wait to see the difference the higher tin price has had over virtually the whole quarter, I reckon it will be a biggy stuffed with news and reports,there must be a few thousand tons of lithium been stockpiled to sell happy days🙂
Started: Early_Bird, 3 Jun 2024 11:17
Last post: AmorAmor77, 5 Jun 2024 08:30
Its feeling like the longest wait... and wait...
forever hopeful!
It's been time for some news since september :-) Any day now..
Something's up! Exciting times ahead, time for some news me thinks
GLA
Started: TrickyDicky2, 3 Jun 2024 15:29
Last post: TrickyDicky2, 3 Jun 2024 15:29
It's a bit like Ground Hog day at the moment.
TDT
Hopefully drilling results . Imminent