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having watched, he admits to being distracted by the lithium opportnity and heavily overspending on it, this was a major mistake, the aisc is ‘$30 something thousand’, so could easily be $39k, sounds like he regrets listing andrada and would have preferred to grow the business as a private entity ( no ****). still very vague mention of when the ore sorters are due to be completed, refers to it as a operational project that need to be completed one day, no great emphasis on this being a priority which it clearly is. the kid in a candy store analogy probably best sums him up, lack of focus, spending shareholder funds without discipline, poor oversight on strategic delivery. hope all of this has changed but the proof of that is yet to be seen.

Agree Gibdog

Correlation broke down almost at exact same time as Orion financing, plus mention of phase 2 expansion drying up. Focus switched to lithium streams at entirely the wrong time, away from establishing a sound footing and balance sheet from tin expansion. Has never recovered. The solution is pretty obvious, except to the board of Andrada.

Https://www.tradingview.com/x/yWgJW0y6/

Just needs a cursory look at this to remind shareholders of the unacceptable level of performance and execution, esp since 2023.

My main exposure to tin was shifted to AFM some time ago, thankfully.

The issue now is can you expect Viljoen to deliver, after so many excuses and mistakes?

Real tin production growth is no not expected until FY 2028, according to H&P. Its just taking far too long/

I’ll wait for the year end accounts to see how strong the balance sheet is thank you very much, not rely on an X ramper to tell me.

If it really is that strong then please explain why the company has agreed to sell its tin to its only customer at a reduced, below market price in exchange for several million dollars 4 days before the year end? I assume you know the answer to this as well.

Can I ask how much you are being paid to do Viljoens ramping work ? I’m genuinely interested.

Because production and therefore sales have barely grown in 3 years, on an enterprise value to sales ratio ATM is not a cheap stock. It’s multiple on estimated 2026 sales is 2.85x - Rio trades on 3.1x whilst Alphamin is a lowly 1.2x. Growth is already priced in, which doesn’t leave much headroom for price appreciation.

That could change if Tin production increases significantly but that isn’t likely now until 2027. Lithium and the other JV metals are unlikely to contribute to sales for years.

No wonder the share price has little support with zero visibility on sales growth.

I’ve been calling for Viljoens replace me for more than 2 years. The Orion deal was dreadful and it’s been getting worse ever since.

It’s got to the point where this needs to happen to prevent further dilution and shareholder neglect.

He could move to chairman and Parsons shd quit as he’s just as ineffective.

Just left Windhoek after 4 weeks in the area and speaking to some local investors no one can understand why the mine hasn’t boosted production in this bull market for tin, esp given the huge fund raising that has happened.

Fully agree Rgbuk, the answer to the current sp weakness is pretty straightforward, unfortunately for some reason Viljoen seems blind to it. Just execute as you are being paid and handsomely rewarded for, and start putting shareholders first before chommy mates. It’s in his hands and I can’t believe he’s too stupid or stubborn not to realise.

Personally I wouldn’t assume anything until it is announced factually that this is the case.

Viljoen has demonstrated a strong record of overpromising and underdelivering, I don’t believe that has changed yet.

The market certainly isn’t pricing in positive free cash generation.

Great chart..👍🏼😎

UncleJohn, 100%. Viljoens messaging is inadequate and frankly appalling in this respect, and has been for several years.

This year so far the news flow has focused on more dilution, more debt, more missed objectives and more use of the word potential. Nothing on financial performance or actual milestones for production growth.

The implication is that you just have to trust him, when in truth he has failed shareholders repeatedly with his weak execution and confused strategic thinking.

The share price reflects all of the above.

NM, updates have been on a roughly 3 month cycle so wouldn't be surprised to see something early May.

Santos likes to keep shareholders informed, where and when he can, plenty good news & progress to report..

TD2, not surprised at the further fundraise, suggested in January they would need one but thought it would happen pre FY end. They managed to get those funds from their only client 4 days before the FYE by paying them to take all their production - must have needed cash desperately before they closed the accounts. Bull market for a supply constrained commodity and ATM are paying their customer to have it all in exchange for a months revenue up front..

Am surprised they found more investors to buy shares after tapping the market so regularly, am sure AV would have had to show quite a bit of leg to get the placement away, probably revealed more than he has to existing shareholders or the wider market. Maybe there really is some good news due soon. Be interesting to see if existing shareholders added or if new ones were seduced.

The final equity raise. For now. Sure I've heard that one before..

Looks like the sorters are very effective, pity they had to truck the samples to Gauteng and couldn’t use the same equipment delivered to Uis. Shows what the mine is missing in terms of productivity.

BW will need sorters as well it seems.

@bohercom - luckily i'm invested in both, ATM since 2019 and AFM from 2021. The latter has been very successful, i appreciate & understand the differences in the asset grade and reduced ATM some time ago to fund AFM. Thank god.

I make the comparison to highlight the difference between the approach and quality of the respective management. One is focussed, clear thinking, strategic and good at informing shareholders. They execute well, in a difficult geography, and have placed significant focus on reaching profitability quickly and rewarding stakeholders. The other company is Andrada.

The debacle of the ore sorters and now the jig is truely horrendous, from a financial and also a reputational point of view. I worked in the fund management industry and stay in touch with analysts and fund managers, sharing notes on companies. The view I get on ATM currently is not a good one. Failing to secure the growth they targeted and then dropping it as an objective has caused significant damage to its rep. But its a characteristic of this management team.

You can compare ATM to other poorly run mining companies if you wish but to aspire to be anything other than a minnow on AIM with a dubious track record, you need to compare yourself to the winners and learn from them if need be. After watching Viljoen in action for the past 7 years, i'm not sure he's capable of that, regrettably.

But perhaps the skill set of the new partners might be enough to finally see the company reach its potential.

Lots of 'ifs' in there, which is why ATM just trudges on.

Of course Alphamin has a great quaility resource, but they also operate in a v high risk country and have consistently executed on stated objectives since listing (shortly after ATM). Look at their reporting - clear, timely, informative, forward looking - everything you'd expect but which Viljoen fails to consider important. Its meaningless to whine about being undervalued on social media when you so badly miss your production goals and then just bury the reasons and downsize your reporting. Its hardly a wonder that prospective investors are turned off.

Dilution has already happened, the shares in issue have increased by >150% since listing.

And you now get them for failing to achieve targets.

Andrada is not a shareholder-led company.

For Alphamin today, achieved average tin price sold of $49,300, AISC up but still c. $18k a ton/sold.

Huge free cash generation.

Shows how well a tin mine should be performing in this environment.

Viljoen really doesn't have any excuses, but i'm sure he'll find some.

Agree rgbuk, another expensive project that has yielded nothing in terms of meeting the production increase goals.

How much expensive borrowing has been incurred for the ore sorters and jig circuit to date - north of $20m? And the aim was to boost production to >2m tonnes by now. Given last week updated presentation, that target is now kicked down the road for another 36 months. Whilst incurring the finance costs of effectively dead assets (well, at least the sorters).

I thought the update was brief and short of detail - getting thinner each quarter. No cost data, lots of long timeline projects now where returns are 3-5 years away. Dead money without production increases. Even the JV news on LR and BW gave the share price little encouragement.

I would say AV has been properly found out for talking large whilst under-delivering on a repeat basis. Trust has gone.

These are the targets Viljoen set for Q4 2026, from the Q3 ops report. He'll be judged on which, if any, he has met.

No doubt we'll hear more excuses & 'challenging conditions' if progress hasn't been made.

§ Completion of Jig plant commissioning to unlock additional tin recovery and processing flexibility.

§ Continued plant optimisation at Uis to drive operational efficiency.

§ Progression of ore-sorter optimisation studies to enhance feed pre-concentration.

§ Advancement of the lithium integration framework, supporting future petalite production.

§ Ongoing geological mapping at Brandberg West, targeting copper and tungsten systems.

§ Evaluation and execution of third-party ore supply agreements to expand feedstock options.

Aminex announces that on 5 March 2026, Eclipse Investments LLC, a person closely associated with Sultan Al-Ghaithi, Non-executive Director, transferred its shareholding in the Company to ARA Offshore Investment Company Limited, also a person closely associated with Sultan Al-Ghaithi, pursuant to an intragroup reorganisation of The Zubair Corporation.

HF0 - without phase 2 expansion, H&Ps 'risked' target valuation is 8p, including values for LR and BW.