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Is worth a read, esp operations review which sheds more light on all activities relating to ntorya and other licenses. And also the finance review on page 30, costs of eclipse funding, terms relating to this etc. The going concern assumption is about as bad as it has ever been, but the board are still confident, even with this further delay, which is a real p*sser, that they can survive until first gas. Although it’s likely to be close and quite expensive if they need to tap Ara further.

I'm guessing leaking news ahead of an update on the ore sorters..

Agree baldmark, although to be fair this is the same problem most of the globe is facing given the random tariffs imposed. The US has imposed a rate of 21% on Namibian exports to them, which is actually somewhere around the average, and a lot less than many EM economies. But the pain is being felt acutely because of the narrowness of their export markets. Good summary here:

https://www.namibian.com.na/from-diamonds-to-beef-how-us-tariffs-could-push-namibia-into-recession/

Given that ATM has been in discussions with a US based entity over critical mineral supplies then it's likely to have an impact on those talks, my guess.

Thanks ICB, re-reading this it's interesting to see some of the psychology behind what Santos is saying. It starts off positively (i'd like to know if APT are preparing the ground physically or metaphorically..), then covers what APT/Aminex have actually been able to do in the past 6 months (pretty limited, but fairly consequential..), then a few 'thank yous' before chucking in an apology for what is likely to be a further delay on the pipeline award. The final para doesn't name names but seems pretty clear. And the meaning of the word 'soon' in TZ terms..? Well, nothing has changed there.

Sorry but it's a yawn from me. Positive but shouldn't come as a surprise - confidence was high 5+ years ago that the surrounding pegmatites would have very similar geology to V1V2, and so they have. Not as deep, not as rich in concentration, but lots of them. Helps to boost the resource estimate but that's not really priority number one at present.

Zeus commented on the PR earlier and they're scratching their heads as to why the shares have fallen 40% from the recent high - really? These guys are being paid by ATM to provide research, they don't have any financial forecasts for the company, no target valuation and don't seem to know what it is that investors want information on? Maybe the lack of any news on a key objective to boost production, due to be completed last month? No way of knowing what ATM's own forecasts are for production and revenues over the next 12-24 months. The shares are listless - guidance is totally absent, and results for CY 2024/5 likely to show another substantial loss.

LG, in which case, realistically, we're looking at pipeline completion and gas flowing in early 2026 now. You can try and convince yourself otherwise, but with the TZ track record, you'd be daft to expect any hurry up from here on.

Thanks Bohercom, on same page on this one. I'll see if I can also get an update via other channels..

as a reminder, this is what av has communicated to the market on the ore sorters to date:

june 24 ops report

the xrt ore sorters from tomra and the crusher circuit from metso are expected in h2 cy2024 and construction of the pre-concentration circuit is targeted for completion in q1 cy2025 with commissioning commencing in april 2025.

metc engineering has commenced the detailed plant design in line with the planned project timelines. the ore sorting pre-concentration circuit will be installed parallel to the front end of the existing processing plant to minimise disruptions to the tin and tantalum production.

september 24 ops report

the delivery of the crusher circuit components for the pre-concentration circuit from metso commenced in q2 fy2025. metc engineering continues to develop the detailed plant design.

december 24 ops report

nothing

march 24 ops report

nothing

november 24 interims

tin expansion

in march we launched the pre-concentrating project for the uis mine to increase the tin grade and output from the processing plant to 1 600 tpa contained tin. the expansion entails improvements to the dry processing section through the installation of a co**** crushing and xrt ore-sorting pre-concentration circuit. we have received all the long-lead machinery for the circuit, and we have completed the detailed engineering plant design.

that's it, can't locate any other mentions. i get the distinct impression that this project is significantly behind schedule - it's atms typical approach to dealing with disappointing news, bury it, don't mention it until someone brings it up. according to the only real communication given concerning timelines, the sorters should be being commissioned this month. any change to that and i would have expected a revised target date. care to expand av?

From the march 12 2024 release:

Implementation of an ore sorting circuit underway to increase tin concentrate from 1 500 to 2 600 tpa.

§ Procurement of Metso crushing equipment and Tomra ore sorters.

§ Ore sorting is fully funded by the Orion Resource Partners facility.

§ Ore sorting augments the Continuous Improvement II programme ("CI2") which is fully funded by the Development Bank of Namibia ("DBN").

§ Expansion is anticipated to increase revenue by up to 75% and continue to reduce the AISC of the mining operations.

Given the scale of this investment by Orion and the targetted objectives, it seems incredulous that there hasn't been any updates on this crucial development since last summer. Just ridiculous. I've been banging on abt this and yet the board (of ATM) don't seem to think it's of any relevance to shareholders or new investors. Surely the project must be close to being completed, and yet not a mention today. It dwarfs the importance of the jig plant, which by the looks of it could be rented and in place in a few months.

I know the company is in talks by a potential large investor which could conceivably clean up their weak looking balance sheet, and provide significant expansion funding, news on this, either way, should be announced soon. As mentioned before, ATM seem incredibly poor at reading the room and providing updates on what the market really wants to know about. But we shouldn't be surprised, it's been this way for years now.

Gotta feel for the AFM team who have done an excellent job at Bisie over the last 5 years. It will be a good trade to re-enter at some point, talks in Angola with the rebels possibly next week..

LF, all relevant but mainly they sniff distressed assets, it’s what they do. A desperate seller (Fidelity, for whatever reason, proves again fund managers often make poor investors) and an opportunity to complete an exit for them at a bargain price. I doubt they will stop at 3.5% as that doesn’t equate to much of an investment for their fund, expect more accumulation as other motivated sellers follow Fidelity out. Their target MOIC will be high and they get involved in future financing, which is what ATM will still need. It’s a much needed reset for the share register and their investment objectives for buying the stake should be much more favourable for existing shareholders. They haven’t gone it blind either, I suspect, so expect to see more positive news, esp on financing, in the near term.

It regenerates the investment thesis for ATM.

• Aminex announced award of an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract by TDPC for the building of the gas pipeline from the Ntorya gas field to the Madimba gas processing plant is almost complete.

• The operator, APT, updated the field development plan for the Ntorya project (25% WI), which now anticipates a 5-year phased development to potentially increase the production rate from 60mmcf/d to 280mmcf/d.

• The NT-2 well is scheduled to be ready to produce gas in time for the completion of the pipeline, whereupon the drilling of CH-1 and workover of NT-1 are planned to occur after the commencement of production.

• The work programme and $41m budget for 2025 was approved in November by the Tanzanian authorities.

The shares are down 5% in early trading as we expect a shift to the right from the prior guidance for first gas around the middle of 2025, notwithstanding a more extensive FDP that proposes additional drilling and higher plateau rates.

Aminex understands that the process for the award of the EPC contract is almost complete and hopes to receive further news from TPDC shortly, which is the critical path for the Ntorya gas project in Tanzania.

We expect this award to be the trigger for the operator to contract a rig to undertake the drilling of the Chikumbi-1 appraisal well and to finish the construction work, which will lead to first gas and revenues later this year.

Aminex has a 25% non-operated interest and is carried up to a maximum $140m gross capex ($35m net), which the Company expects to cover all net capex through to the commencement of commercial gas production at Ntorya.

Important to note that the SA tax year ends on Feb 28th(29th), so often investors who are tax resident there, and want to defer tax to the following year will sell at the beginning of march. Although in this case the timing is pretty sh*t - he's either in a hurry to pay the taxman or thinks the share price is heading lower. I'd be sceptical about the reason given - it wouldn't be the first time..

'The important seismic results have allowed APT and Aminex to propose a more extensive and longer-term plan for Ntorya, including the additional drilling programme and consequent increased gas production, substantially increasing the potential value for Aminex shareholders.' :)

got it to work eventually..

i actually thought the on site setting worked better, less rehe****d and showing us the full high-viz man-at-work..!

that said, market isn't really interested in more drilling and resource appraisal which will only produce results in 18 months, more costs, no contribution to revenues etc..

it was a missed opportunity to show the ore sorters being commissioned (hopefully) and the site of the new production plant (if this is actually a reality - i won't believe it until i see photographic evidence).

new financial year, still no guidance on cashflow breakeven targets for the company - can understand the markets valuation of the company at present which is roughly 2 times revenues, in line with other mining companies. and they're profitable! living in hope of some actual positive news on earnings, but probably some way off yet..:(

Freezes at 59 seconds..?

AEX have lately released non-financial news at odd times in the afternoon, not the usual 7 am embargoes, clearly news is leaking out in the usual places, wouldn’t be surprised if we get something b4 close today.

Since ATM started producing tin, over the past 5 years, whenever the spot price has been at this level or above, ATM's share price has traded above 6p, with the peak above 9p. This time, with a possible bigger squeeze on supply than in 2021, struggling to stay above 2 pence. Pretty woeful. Either about to get a similar dramatic rally to the one we saw in early 2022, or the market really has given up on ATM as a tin producer, and who knows, actually capable of making money as tin miner.

Might be a good idea to bang the drum on what the ore sorters and OT's cash will bring to the party during the next six month's Antony..?

Nicely put themoose..:)

Agree, directors shd be wading in at these prices - showing support but also faith that their strategy will start to show returns from here on. Small purchases would deliver a large turn in sentiment I feel..

A refocus on tin is very welcome - it was a mistake not to stick to the initial strategic plan. But it's not too late..

If i wasn't already loaded i would be adding. Fortunately i'm hovering around breakeven, having doubled my position during Covid.

The time is now..

It had the upside before, and delivered on it, back in the day when ATM was a pretty good way to get levered exposure to the tin price.

But for the past 18 months..not so much. Source of the frustration which is clearly evident on this board.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TINM/kqAT7b6U-ATM-dislocation/