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TD2, tend to agree. I'm not sure that the idea of listing on the OTCQB market has been too smart - haven for naked short sellers. Timing of which (June '23) pretty much coincides with the start of this downleg (now -67%). Plus, the announcement of the Orion funding package shortly after.

And how's that going for OMF..? Subscribed for $2.5m shares at 6.39p and granted warrants for up to $20m of new equity in Nov 25 at 9.45p. So just over a year to go on those. Getting their 12% on the convertible loan and likely to score nicely on the royalty (at least to begin with..), but probably not the outcome they were expecting 12 months in.

Something definitely feels off here - i can't see why a fund would sell stock so badly that it craters the value of their remaining holdings, you'd be after a trade sale if you had to offload that amount of shares, surely. Naked shorts, someone in the background trying to depress the price to make a lowball offer (that risk is increasing..)..? Maybe AV p+ssed off a potential partner and they're out for revenge..!

He's certainly got his work cut-out at the moment. And shareholders, just the collateral damage, as per..

Another 18 months of drilling, BEFORE they get around to a DFS, then what, more discussion over financing and then they start to plan for a plant to start production..? I switched off at that point, you're talking > 3 years away FFS, kind of typical timelines for ATM to get anything done. No wonder the market reaction to this news has been so negative. The expectation from last year was that Li production would be on stream by now, adding to the companies revenues and pushing it towards annual profits, given that it's supposedly 'for free'. But no sales planned of Uis Li until late next year and now this. Why is AV not surprised that investors are looking elsewhere.

It's got to be frustrating for AV and the board, they have taken on the feedback to deliver better comms on the partnership, the BW results are transformative and there has been a big uplift to the value of two resources on the back of the newsflow. The tin market drivers couldn't really be better, and the sorters shd boost production materially within 6 months or so. This should be pushing towards 10p on the back of this de-risking and the boost to the balance sheet. Strange times..

Lithium - Rio Tinto in discussions to takeover Arcadium (mkt cap US$3.3bn)

• Rio Tinto has made a non-binding approach towards Arcadium Lithium which aims to produce 140,000tpa of LCE ‘Lithium Carbonate’ by 2028.

• Projects are in Argentina (Olaroz, Cauchari & Fenix), Quebec and Australia plus some downstream facilities in China.

• Arcadium is using evaporation ponds in Argentina along with DLE technology, which may help Rio with its Rincon DLE project.

Conclusion: The move confirms interest by yet another major miner in growing lithium production.

Thanks CCC, some excellent points made. SP Angel this morning have also highlighted further supply issues for both Tin and Lithium, with more supply being withdrawn for both which is typically a positive sign for future, firmer pricing. A low (or zero?) cost producer of Lithium should be a clear winner as these unprofitable producers shutter or close operations:

Tin prices ($33,870/t) continue to rise as Shanghai inventories slide and Myanmar typhoon raises supply concerns

• Tin prices are nearing $34,000 on the LME, climbing over the past month on reduced supply from Myanmar and Indonesia.

• Shanghai exchange warrants have been sliding, falling over 7kt in 40 days.

• Indonesia has been slowing tin production approvals as it cracks down on corruption in the industry.

• Chinese buyers have reported tightening ore supply, with Yunnan and Jiangxi smelters struggling to ramp up operations on limited feedstock.

• The maintenance period is expected to come to an end after the Autumn holiday, raising concerns over pressures on upstream supply.

• Shanghai Metals Market reports that ‘some beneficiation plants will face a situation of having no ore to process,’ if production remains constrained from Myanmar.

• Myanmar is facing impacts from a recent typhoon; with tin production already limited for most of 2024.

Chinese shut additional high-cost lithium mines in Zimbabwe

• Bikita Minerals, a Chinese lithium miner in Zimbabwe, announced that their DMS plant will be shut down from October 2024.

• The Company cited ‘lithium market factors.’

• Sinomine, who own Bikita, reported that the recent price slump is ‘making it difficult for lithium companies to stay afloat, with most mining entities downscaling production.’

• This follows reports that CATL has shuttered their large-scale Jiangxi lepidolite operations.

• The West Australian reports that Liontown Resources has laid off a third of its head office staff.

• The Company sold its first cargo of spodumene concentrate this month.

• Focus remains on other Australian spodumene producers, with Bald Hill and Mount Marion both likely operating at losses.

Rgbuk, you can also add first petalite sold and ramped up sales of tantalum, so ATM finally fulfilling it's promise of producing and selling multiple minerals (but obviously still, at a loss, at least as far as it's possible to ascertain). The bare mention of those objectives 3-4 years ago was enough to propel the share price above 7p at least three times - but not now, back at price levels from 5 years ago.

Something definitely changed around July last year. The deal with SQM covers part of the partnering objective, but really only funds more drilling and exploration to produce a DFS. How long it might take to ultimately build a new plant (likely, given > 100km away) and start producing some lithium, many years away i guess. Does the relationship with SQM likely reduce the possibility of anyone else running the ruler over ATM - it probably does.

The ore sorters and tin production ramp-up can't come soon enough.

The majority of the Canaccord weighting is held via the Marlborough Micro-Cap and Nano Cap unit trusts (abt 5.9% currently of the shares out). Canaccord bought Marlborough a few years ago, becoming the investment adviser to these unit trusts. They're quite big funds, but probably struggling in this environment, lack of interest in the small cap space etc. The Andrada positions in both are small, 0.33% of the micro-cap fund and under 1% of the nano fund. So not high conviction positions, in what are funds with a high number of holdings.

Lithium equities rally on reports CATL has shut mining operations

• Downbeat lithium equities soared in China and Australia overnight on reports of more supply coming offline.

• MinRes jumped 16%, Pilbara and Liontown jumped 13%, Ganfeng and Tianqi climbed 10% whilst development plays Develop and Patriot also rallied.

• Much of this was likely short covering, with bears covering positions following a profitable trade amid the downturn.

• The move followed reports by UBS that CATL has placed operations in Jiangxi in care and maintenance.

• Reports suggest this accounts for c.8% of China’s monthly LCE supply.

• Operations are reported to have been lossmaking for the past two months amid a slump in lithium prices, seeing carbonate prices in China fall below $10,000/t and Australian spodumene down to $740/t.

• China carbonate futures rallied 6% overnight.

• Citi had reported that lepidolite production has been cut by 14% over the past few weeks.

• Lithium bull hopes rest on a destocking cycle from downstream lithium battery makers, which are holding ample inventories.

• We remain bullish long term lithium prices, and see spodumene prices as likely nearing a floor, with Mt Cattlin coming offline amid losses.

• Lower prices over the next few years are likely to disincentivise capacity expansion, whilst EV penetration continues to grow.

• This presents the risk of another supply shock as seen in 2022 towards the second half of the decade.

Getting this sort of investment in the current climate for Li, with mines being shuttered, isn't easy. SQM are seeing the bigger picture/longer game and securing access to a world class deposit, at trough valuations. But still reasonable for ATM, which values their stake at Lithium Ridge, post investment, at $30-40m when it had little current value. Clearly, the SMU stake in UTMC was a big hurdle in progressing the partnering process, no surprise to see positive news flowing so quickly after that was resolved.

Correlation broke down July 23: https://www.tradingview.com/x/QVx2SXDi/

On the same page Bohercom

Sums it up, since Orion and SP were announced: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vM4zsOR8/

May have some update news this week, will post what i can

CCC, it may be the world's largest hardrock tin resource (we're still waiting for confirmation on that..) but it's certainly not the world's largest producing hardrock tin mine. Very misleading. ATM is still only a beefed up pilot plant - this is their problem. 8 years in and still doesn't really know what it wants to be. Had it gone the full ramp up to phase 2 several years ago (which was the initial strategy), we too would have a mkt cap closer to Alphamin (currently £ 775m) - instead we're playing with the juniors, and seriously missing out on this tin rally. Decisions, decisions, all down the AV and board..

Most of the NAV decline in this quarter is for the listed holdings but there are modest declines in the unlisted holdings too. Most of the portfolio value is in the conventional oil and gas holdings and a majority of the investments by value are listed.

Overall 65% of NAV is investments in conventional oil and gas companies, 16% of NAV is decarbonisation investments and 20% of NAV is net cash. 51% of NAV is listed

holdings. The 30/6/24 NAV is 3.3% below our £ terms NAVe of 1354pps. After updating

for the 30/6/24 NAV and the latest share buybacks we reduce our live NAV by 11.7% from $19.24ps to $16.99ps in $ terms and from 1,503pps to 1,327pps in £ terms. Most of this

reduction reflects a change made due to a pricing feed error that has come in to the model since the start of August 2024 related to the listed decarbonisation holding in Tritium DCFC. At a current share price of 804pps (@09:00) the headline discount to our NAVe is 39.4% but allowing for the significant net cash balance sheet and taking out listed

holdings at NAV, the implied discount on the unlisted holdings is 136%. The remaining

portfolio is highly concentrated and NAV movements will be influenced by the share prices for the conventional oil and gas listed holdings. But RSE continues its share buybacks which are significantly accretive to NAV per share and the current price effectively assumes no value for the unlisted holdings including Onyx within the conventional oil and gas portfolio that appears to continue to be performing well. We remain Overweight.

CCC, personally i'd be happy if he actually listened to the questions being asked and gave clear responses to answer them. The last interview, the lady asking questions was excellent, the responses (yet again) very poor. I don't think he answered the first two questions at all! And as for pleading to be recognised as an 'emerging mid-tier miner' - what does that actually mean? The market will recognise ATM when it finally starts delivering on some of it's promise - not just fluff, but actual bottom-line. Is this an attractive investment or just a cash-burning ego trip..

The sp fell to 1.5p during the early days of Covid, I bought half my position at 1.61p during then, I have an average across 3.5m shares of abt 2.7p. I had more but offloaded some once I saw the terms of the Orion financing. I wish I had sold the lot.

One plus is that Orion invested close to 6p and their warrants convert above 9p, in October 25. AV will be under pressure to turn this around over the next 15 months. Did they appoint someone from Orion to the management team, i recall it was mooted as part of the finance package?

A takeover offer would do the trick, and in less time. The Uis restructuring would make this a much easier transaction to attract and consider.

Reflective of the newsflow in the tin sector, world inventories have fallen 40% ytd. There was a time when Afritin would react pretty well to news like this, nowadays, not so much. The last spike in tin prices saw a fair bit of consolidation in the sector, maybe AV shd get off his a*se and speak to someone at Metals X...

• First Tin reports that Australian tin producer, Metals X has purchased 60m of its shares for a price of 4p/share in an on-market transaction with Clara Resources.

• The transaction, worth £2.4m, leaves Metals X holding a 23% interest in First Tin.

• Following the sale of its shares, Clara Resources’ nominee on First Tin’s Board, Nicholas Mather, “will step down as a Non-Executive Director”.

• We interpret Metals X’s stake in First Tin, which released a Definitive Study on the Taronga tin deposit in New South Wales and is also progressing the Tellerhäuser tin project in Germany, as an important consolidation of western world tin capacity.

• First Tin’s CEO, Bill Scotting, said that the transaction was an “endorsement of our tin assets” and commented that “we look forward to deepening our collaboration with Australia's largest tin producer to optimise and accelerate the delivery of our growth projects”.

• His comments were echoed by Metals X Chairman, Peter Gunzberg who said that they were looking forward to “working closely together. The combination of Metals X's operating and financial capabilities with First Tin's exciting and late stage development assets should be of significant benefit to all stakeholders”.

Since we listed for trading on the US OTCQB and hooked up with Orion, the shares have underperformed the tin price by roughly 70%. Go figure, genius decisions..:(

The companies view on ML129 Spodumene Hill has changed pretty drastically in 12 months! Kind of sums of the lack of corporate direction, FFS..

Anthony Viljoen, Chief Executive Officer, commented: (July 2023)

"These drill results provide an initial glimpse into the potential of the Spodumene Hill Project. The identified high-grade lithium intersections within the pegmatite could be separated through ore sorting to provide a potentially high-grade pre-concentrate for the lithium processing plant.

These results have also highlighted the tantalum potential of this area, and the relevance of the recently constructed tantalum recovery circuit. The proximity of the Spodumene Hill Project to the existing operations provides an immediate opportunity for additional revenues from the project area by blending tantalum grades.

The highlighted intersections provide a promising starting point for the next phase of exploration which will aim to define the extent of these zones both laterally and with depth. We have also initiated a metallurgical programme to investigate the optimal beneficiation process for the recovery of both lithium and tantalum, whilst also producing tin as a by-product."

June 27 2024:

About: ML129 (Spodumene Hill)

The Company's Uis Tin Project is comprised of three separate mining licences (ML129, ML133 and ML134) each of which has been historically exploited for tin on varying scales. ML134 is the main licence of the Company and incorporates the former Uis tin mine. ML129 is the least advanced of the Company's three licences and a key portion of the historic exploration details for ML129 (from before Andrada acquired the licence) no longer exist. The Andrada directors do not consider ML129 to be a material licence in the Company's portfolio and do not consider it aligns to the Company's current objectives.

Adding at this level should make sense - ATM's hare price has returned -44% since 15/8/23 versus +32% for spot tin (and + 23% for Alphamin, pure tin play). I use that date as it's when the Orion finance package was confirmed - the loan itself was received in November. In the two years prior to this date, ATM had outperformed the tin price by 55% (all in GBP). Coincidence? I think not.

It felt like a sh+t deal for shareholders at the time and it's proven to be one. Friday's weakness was partly down to disappointment on lithium partners and sales, but also due to concerns that ATM won't make the Feb 25 deadline to get production up to 1,600 tons of concentrate pa, to benefit from a royalty discount. If they don't, then it ramps up to above 9% until they do, which is punitive. The estimated date for this to happen has shifted from FY25 to CY25, big difference, carefully concealed.

With the absence of meaningful Li sales in this financial year it seems, it raises the issue of how long the existing funding will last. Hannam don't project a +ve net profit figure until FY27 (so some time in 2028). ATM haven't issued a revised strategy presentation or cash/income forecast for as long as I can remember. No surprise investors are unsure about the next 24 months, massive lack of clarity from the board.

Trading volume in GPH was c. 1.4m on friday, daily average over the last 3 years has been 50k, maybe that was the catalyst for GIH to start getting twitchy. I know of one merger arb fund that's built a position here since monday.