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I would be more impressed with a glib comment like that if the truth was that they 'dig holes, and sell dirt, AT A PROFIT..' Unfortunately, they don't still, after 7 years of trying (or maybe not trying, the emphasis still seems to be on 'unlocking value' and generating bigger resource estimates).

Everyone knows ATM sits on huge reserves, there's no argument. But it counts for nothing if you weigh the business down with so much debt that it struggles to get to positive cashflow.

That interview was another classic exercise of not answering the question and being vague with when profitability might be reached. Standard AV, nothing has changed. The cash from OT has hit ATM's account and the message was this would lead to immediate production and revenue increases - not likely. But it would have been nice to get some idea of when the new plant might realistically be in place - there's surely some sort of date in mind?

I do think the outlook here has improved in recent weeks, but the share price and what is being communicated could do a better job of confirming this.

If you're sat on the world's largest hard rock tin deposit, during a bull period for your main product, at a time when global supply looks challenged, and you can't return a profit, surely something is a bit off on your strategy..? And i don't think ATM is misunderstood or under-appreciated - the market just wants to see signs that it can survive wothout continual funding. Please deliver the proof AV..!

6-7%

Just posted on Bloomberg:

REGIONAL SECURITY

MAURITIUS – February 18, 2025 – Alphamin Resources Corp. (AFM:TSXV, APH:JSE AltX)

(the "Company") notes recent news reports that insurgents have further continued their

advance and seized the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Democratic Republic

of the Congo (DRC), following its seizure of the city of Goma in late January. The Company's

mine is located in a remote area and, at this time the Company continues to operate within

guidance parameters. As a result of the continued advance of the insurgents, the operating

risk profile of the Company has increased and any further significant escalation of the conflict

could result in mining operations being affected. The safety of the Company's employees and

contractors and compliance with the DRC and international laws remains its committed focus.

The Company is closely monitoring the situation as it continues to progress, and will provide

further updates if required.

By order of the Board

They don't need to seize the mine, if the risks to safety become too high Alphamin will take steps to evacuate staff. They can also interrupt transportation - the export corridor looks safe for now but it could easily be closed off. The share price reaction is reflecting the risks.

The recent spike has also coincided with the M23 offensive against Goma and the Kivu provinces in the DRC, where Alphamin have their mines. Their production accounts for 7% of global supply, and whilst it’s not yet affected, there’s no guarantee it won’t be. Their share price has fallen 20% ytd despite record production in their last results, on the risk of this happening. It’s another opportunity for ATM to show they can increase production and are based in a relatively safer jurisdiction. Hopefully they can capitalise on it.

'You don't borrow money from an existing funder and share holder unless there is a deal to be done..'

Well, you do if its to provide ATN with another funding lifeline, as OT has done many times in the past. In order to protect the value of your present investment and loans.

Don't forget, OT, Orion and Viljoen were all party to the car crash named Bushveld - currently in business protection/rescue. I doubt Orion and OT will want to suffer losses of that magnitude again, so they're kind of committed...which is good.

Thanks Steegee, good analysis and far more use than the nonsense published by H&P. Their target price is based on funding for phase 2 expansion which ATM seemed to give up on years ago, at least it hasn’t featured in any of their strategic plans for as long as I can tell.

Maybe that’s about to change?

I find it hard to believe £2m gets you a plant that can deliver an 77% production increase, with immediate impact, given what’s been spent on the existing one delivering 130 tph..? And how long it has taken to build that. Maybe you get get them off the shelf in Makro and dump them on a slab and hey presto..

The debt figure is very worrying, given the high cost of servicing it. Let alone paying it back/refinancing when due. ATM needs a large boost in production and revenues without doubt. The FY ends in a few weeks and it will be interesting to see if 2024-5’s loss is an improvement on the previous FY.

I understand there is significant interest from an overseas party looking to secure tin and lithium supply who are doing DD on the company at present. If it proceeds it will be big, and likely to include debt restructuring. But it’s not guaranteed. The recent move by SA to block exports to this country might improve the odds of it happening.

I think the next 3 months will be very interesting, and of course we should also get an update on t(e ore sorters soon.

That's a different seller - Fidelity Special Values and the Fidelity UK Smaller Companies fund. As opposed to Marlborough who have also been reducing.

Thanks Steegee, this aligns with what I’ve heard abt US based funding and production facilities that tie in with ATM. Interesting that the article doesn’t state where this new facility will be based, my guess is Namibia and close to ATM’s licenses, which would make sense. Perhaps they are waiting for ATM to announce the news first, which would hopefully make it soon.

They’ve been walking for seven years now.,.

But only if you build production scale, which AV hasn’t done. 5 yrs ago the stated strategy was to move to phase 2 scale which would have been in place now. Andrada is really still a pimped up pilot plant which doesn’t produce enough to cover the costs of the entire operation, meaning -ve net income and the need for regular further finance. This isn’t sustainable as the share price testifies to. I want to see the ore sorters in place and commissioned and a stated target date to reach + ve cash flow for the entire operation, not just at an asset level, which is misdirection. Byproduct sales shd be contributing by now, need on that is what the market is now anticipating, don’t disappoint again Antony.,

TDT, I’m hearing that AV met with Orion + other investors yday in Cape Town. Orion no doubt there for the Indaba, it may be related or more likely to do with the new funding that’s been flagged by AV several times since November. I would expect this could be behind the move, hopefully positive news connected to this very soon..PD

Rgbuk, what has changed is the company's cash position, something that ATM and most other posters tend to overlook. At end Nov 24 they had $3.3m in cash and were waiting for $1.5m from SQM as the participation fee, which i don't believe has been approved yet. Given that in the last 2 years ATM have run a negative net income of c. £8m per annum, and are forecast to lose c. £6m in 2025, their cash burn since November would reduce this balance to a very low figure. AV has stated he is in advanced talks with potential further suppliers of finance but no-one really knows how secure this is and what the costs will be. Hence the uncertainty, once again, with the company's finances. I'm sure (well, hopeful) that something will be announced soon, but until then, ATM is in a pretty precarious place. The seller obviously knows this but is probably more driven by redemptions from the funds that hold ATM and is weeding out his least attractive stocks - or has just given up on the investment case. Time will tell.

CP, I was actually quoting from the article by tanzania petroleum, pls refer questions to the journalist.. :) :) I'm sure he's accurate and up to date with all developments..!

Agree the radio silence has been more frustrating than usual this time - so near, and yet so far...perhaps nearer then we think though.

Thanks also Henning :)

Nicely pressurising the TPDC to get their effing finger out..

n contrast, the relationship between ARA Petroleum and authorities seems very good. As evidenced by the recent signing of a Gas Sales Agreement and then the Ruvuma PSA Development Licence (incorporating Ntorya). ARA also appears to be in lock-step with TPDC who are partnering with them to deliver the project (including a pipeline to the Madimba Gas Processing Plant, that TPDC has committed to have ready for production to commence by mid 2025). As such, the Ntorya project appears to be a model in terms of collaboration between global oil and gas firms and local stakeholders.

I don't think there's much risk of that happening, the share price hasn't exactly reacted positively to newsflow over the past 18 months, down > 75%. Which is about how much it has underperformed the tin price, which we used to track quite nicely. Total travesty. Even with the recent signs of life in commodity stocks, and some further M&A. Viljoen has managed to disengage ATM from pretty much the entire equity and metals market. Some achievement !

After 7 months of waiting, maybe Santos feels it's now ok to give the peasants an update..

Guessing approval given for SQM agreement on Lithium Ridge or, even better, finalised project finance for expansion, which AV has been banging on abt since the November RNS. Either way, much needed funds as cash position can't be that clever at present. ATM needs to boost production volumes significantly in the next FY, and start selling Li products.

Alphamin Resources* (AFM CN) C$1.23, Mkt cap C$1.6bn – Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund in talks with Denham over Bisie stake

• Bloomberg reported yesterday that Denham Capital, the 57% owner in Alphamin, is in talks with Abu Dhabi’s International Resources Holdings.

• Alphamin holds the Bisie tin mine in the North Kivu province of the DRC, which produces c.20ktpa of tin in concentrate, c 6% of global production.

• Denham commented that it has been exploring an investment vehicle ‘to continue the investment in Bisie… which has solicited considerable interest from a number of parties.’

• The Abu Dhabi IRH invested into Zambia’s Mopani copper project last year and has committed to invest over $1bn.

Conclusion: We are bullish tin given the limited selection of development projects currently in Western hands. As a result, we are not surprised to see Middle Eastern interest, given the critical nature of the metal to the global electrification and semiconductor trends. We would expect an investment in Bisie to provide a positive read across to Cornish Metals*, which holds the South Crofty tin project in Cornwall and provides investors with an alternative to the DRC for tin exposure

ATM issue shares regularly in lieu of cash payments to service providers such as brokers, PR companies etc and they also issued 41m shares in August in lieu of cash to the SMU and the convertible loan note holders - could easily be any of these monetising their shares just to convert to cash. Its been their policy to do this for several years so likely a lot swilling around and some holders have just capitulated and gone for cash, bills to pay, bad timing if this is the case but might explain some of the recent indiscriminate dumping.