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Part 1 of 6
@advocate1973 – Apologies, later than promised, but I needed the 2023 accounts to complete this.
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Here is a worked example of an average AML share price calculation, using real share dealings.
Michael de Picciotto / St.James Invest SA
29/06/20 - 4,000,000 shares @ £50p per share = £2,000,000 cost
09/12/20 - 1,240,784 shares @ £50p = £620,392 cost
2020 Buys = 5,240,784 shares, Cost £2,620,392, Avg. per share = £0.50
14/12/20 - 20:1 Share Consolidation
31/12/20 - Total = 262,039 shares, Cost £2,620,392, Avg. per share = £10.00
- - - - - - - - - -
02/03/21 - 50,000 shares @ £18.98 = £949,110 cost
07/05/21 - 50,000 shares @ £18.48 = £924,175 cost
28/06/21 - 30,715 shares @ £18.71 = £574,678 cost
05/11/21 - 100,000 shares @ £17.44 = £1,744,000 cost
26/11/21 - 25,000 shares @ £14.60 = £365,000 cost
02/12/21 - 25,000 shares @ £13.99 = £349,750 cost
15/12/21 - 79,679 shares @ £12.00 = £956,148 cost
16/12/21 - 20,321 shares @ £12.32 = £250,355 cost
2021 Buys = 380,715 shares, Cost £6,113,215, Avg. per share = £16.06
Sub-Total 2020 + 2021 Buys = 642,754 shares - Cost £8,733,607 - Avg. £13.59
The above covers share purchases, but de Picciotto / St.James also had AML warrants:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/directorpdmr-shareholding-replacement-0mnk1fkv814s1tf.html
AML’s 2021 Accounts list the de Picciotto / St.James holding as 1,150,000 shares on 31/12/21.
Therefore, an extra 507,246 shares were added by way of exercising these warrants.
(As part of the total of 1,525,926 warrants exercised in 2021, in three batches.)
Share Cost = $0.38 per warrant (paid in Dec.20), plus £10 per share option price = £10.28.
2021 Warrants – 507,246 shares @ £10.28 = £5,214,489 cost
31/12/21 - Grand Total = 1,150,000 shares - Total Cost £13,948,096 - Avg. £12.13
- - - - - - - - - -
28/09/22 - RI - 4,800,000 shares @ £1.03 = £4,944,000 cost
28/09/22 - RI Rump - 378,787 shares @ £1.32 = £499,999 cost
Sep.22 Buys = 5,178,787 shares, Cost £5,443,99, Avg. per share = £1.05
30/09/22 – Grand Total = 6,328,787 shares - Total Cost £19,392,095 - Avg. £3.06
03/11/22 - 114,000 shares @ £0.90 = £102,822 cost
03/11/22 - 118,797 shares @ £0.96 = £114,225 cost
04/11/22 - 237,500 shares @ £1.11 = £264,075 cost
07/11/22 - 95,743 shares @ £1.29 = £123,655 cost
08/11/22 - 95,000 shares @ £1.38 = £131,525 cost
09/11/22 - 3,960 shares @ £1.41 = £5,590 cost
Nov.22 Buys = 665,000 shares, Cost £741,891, Avg. per share = £1.12
Total 2022 Buys = 5,843,787 shares, Cost £6,185,890, Avg. per share = £1.06
31/12/22 – Grand Total = 6,993,787 shares - Total Cost £20,133,986 - Avg. £2.88
End of Part 1…
Part 2 of 6
Before continuing with Michael de Picciotto / St.James Invest SA, let the fact checking begin…
c2645sg – 23/12/22 - Quote: “Picciotto was buying millions of shares at £18/19.”
#Facts - Picciotto didn’t buy a single share at £19 & just 130,715 shares in the £18 range.
Those £18 shares from 2021, made up less than 2% of their 31/12/22 total holding of 6.99m shares.
Funny how @c2645sg never mentions the 5.8 million shares bought in 2022, with a £1.06 avg.
Which were all a matter of public record when @c2645sg posted their fiction on 23/12/22.
- - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – 15/04/24 - Quote:
“Half the board were buying shares over £15, and they were all completely wrong.”
Based the working in Part 1, which had the biggest influence on de Picciotto‘s overall AML average:
- Was it the 2% of 6.99m shares bought for around £18 in 2021?
- Or was it the 83% of 6.99m shares bought for an average of £1.06 in 2022?
Which is the whole point of talking about an average, that includes high & low prices paid.
- - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – 13/10/22 – Quote: “Priced for its 8th bankruptcy now.”
At the time @c2645sg claimed AML was about to go bust, de Picciotto / St.James had 6.3m shares.
Conventional wisdom is that, when faced with bankruptcy, you should sell your shares for ‘something/anything’, rather than keeping holding & risk getting nothing when the company folds.
If they had sold those 6.3m shares in Oct.22, around the 90p mark, they would have lost £13m!
(Ignoring the fact that selling 6.3m shares would have lowered the SP & increased the loss.)
Instead, they bought more shares in Nov.22 and lowered their average from £3.06 to £2.88.
End of Part 2…
Part 3 of 6
Back to Michael de Picciotto / St.James Invest SA and ‘Part 1’ ended with…
31/12/22 – Grand Total = 6,993,787 shares - Total Cost £20,133,986 - Avg. £2.88
25/05/23 - de Picciotto / St.James / Yew Tree Consortium sold some AML shares to Geely.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/substantial-investment-in-aston-martin-by-geely-q94k6aqturtuixu.html
Clearly, this was a strategic decision and not the final ‘cashing out’ of their AML investment.
Still, they did sell 2,333,127 shares, at £3.35 per share = £7,815,975.
Compared to the £6,716,697 cost of those 2.3m shares (based on the average cost of £2.88).
Which gives a £1,099,279 gross profit / 16% return, excluding fees, taxes, etc.
Obviously, a £3.35 selling price is lower than the cost of each share bought in 2020 & 2021.
But the sheer number, and significantly lower prices, of their 2022 buys more than covers this.
That £1m profit compares to a potential £5m loss from selling those 2.3m shares @ 90p in Oct.22.
Meaning de Picciotto/St.James were £6m better off after ignoring @c2645sg’s bankruptcy warning!
- - - - - - - - - -
With £1,099,279 gross profit already banked, their AML balance became…
01/06/23 – Grand Total = 4,660,660 shares, Cost £13,417,290, Avg. per share = £2.88
Aug.23 - de Picciotto / St.James were part of the cash raise.
03/08/23 - 900,000 shares @ £3.71 = £3,339,000 cost
Sep.23 – Part of Stroll/Yew Tree building up their controlling percentage.
28/09/23 – 725,000 shares @ £2.57 = £1,863,250 cost
31/12/23 – Grand Total = 6,285,660 shares, Cost £18,619,540, Avg. per share = £2.96
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Sources:
https://www.lse.co.uk/DirectorsDeals.html?shareprice=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/a/aston-martin-lagonda-ord-10p/director-deals
AML Annual Accounts – 2021 to 2023
End of Part 3…
Part 4 of 6
Back to the fact checking…
c2645sg – 09/03/23 - Quote:
“Directors were buying close to £20 and it fell to 90p. They are heavily in loss, just like most on here.”
@c2645sg - There is a big difference between being down on paper & actually incurring a loss.
de Picciotto / St.James were ‘down’ £13.6m when the SP was 90p, but they did not make a loss.
Which would have happened, if they sold based on your (false) claim the company was going bust.
Instead, they didn’t lose £13.6m by selling & made £1m+ when they sold some of their AML shares.
So, yes, de Picciotto / St.James are ‘down’ today, but they will not lose/make money until they sell.
- - - - - - - - - -
This was actually the full quote used in Part 2 above:
c2645sg – 23/12/22 - Quote: “Pociotto was buying millions of shares at £18/19. If he was that bright and knew the company so well, why was he buying near the top?”
Which begs this paraphrased question for @c2645sg based on the second part of their quote…
‘If you was that bright & knew the company so well, why were you buying near the top?’ ;-)
c2645sg – 11/06/21 – Quotes:
09:17 – “Even I topped up over £22, but quickly sold again when I realised what was going on.”
11:11 - “Doyezee, I saved myself 13% by selling.”
13:12 - “Nice, hit my limit order of 1910. Keeping some in reserve in case it goes lower.”
c2645sg – 19/07/21 - Quote – “I am down a fair chunk today”
- - - - - - - - - -
So, @c2645sg saved money by selling at £22 & re-buying at £19 in Jun.21.
But were then ‘down’ in Jul.21, because the SP had dropped still further by then.
As per above, being down is not the same as making a loss, as they hadn’t sold.
However, it makes a complete mockery of their repeated (false) claims to have call the AML SP top.
Covered in more detail here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&page=2&thread=16EB0448-6072-4769-97F8-D38F96A7BA54
End of Part 4…
Part 5 of 6
These were factual statements:
AML_007 – 25/03/23 - Quote: “I stopped posting details on here.”
AML_007 – 21/01/24 - Quote: “I have already made money from my AML shareholding.
Yes, I bought shares at high prices, but I also bought shares at low prices, that’s what an average is!
My experience was similar to that of Michael de Picciotto / St.James Invest SA.”
Although, in reality, I had a few (very) small advantages over de Picciotto / St.James:
- Over 90% of my original AML holding was bought in 2022 vs. 84% of de Picciotto’s.
- I also bought over 60% of my total AML holding via a SIPP pension scheme.
- Therefore, the UK Government directly paid for some of my AML shares, at zero cost to me.
- The UK Govt. also gave me cash back, via a tax refund, reducing my AML share costs still further.
- - - - - - - - - -
The following are just a small selection of fictional statements about my AML average:
c2645sg – 21/01/24 - Quote: “your average above £15”
c2645sg – 19/02/24 - Quote: “Paul/AML007, hurry up with that AML average, otherwise you might not be able to claim(lie) you are in profit (haha) much longer.... ;)”
c2645sg – 16/04/24 - Quote: “Zero chance of agreeing with me if you can't even agree with yourself.
Bet you wish you had sold at £15 and bought at £1.50 now, huh? 90% destruction in wealth.”
c2645sg – 17/04/24 - Quote: “Then they try to tell you they are up. They can't even be honest with themselves never mind anyone else.”
c2645sg – 26/04/24 - Quote: “I guess that's not an issue to you because when you have lost so much money, it gets to the point where it really doesn't matter any more?”
- - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg - 07/03/24 – Quote – “You keep trying to weave a false narrative, it won't work.”
Based on the facts vs. friction highlighted above, who is the one trying to weave a false narrative?
@c2645sg regularly quotes my 2020/21 buys, but always refuses to answer my simple question:
“…please share with the group how many shares I bought in 2022 & how much I paid for them.”
@2645sg also never mentions de Picciotto / St.James buying 5.8 million shares in 2022 @ £1.06 avg.
The simple mathematics of AML shareholding averages shows that 2022 was the year that counts.
End of Part 5…
Part 6 of 6
Let’s round off this series of ‘Facts vs. Fiction’ posts with some double standards and hypocrisy…
@c2645sg is clearly entitled to hold this opinion:
c2645sg – 26/11/21 - Quote: “My shareholding is none of your business AML007”
However, why then is anyone else’s shareholding any of @c2645sg’s business?
E.g. c2645sg – 08/04/24 - Quote: “Noah, whats your average here?”
As I’ve lost count of the number of times that @c2645sg has asked me about my shareholding.
These examples, 3 questions in 9 days, suggests an unhealthy interest, bordering on obsession.
c2645sg – 30/01/24 – “What’s your average now 007?”
c2645sg – 31/01/24 – “Whats your average here 007?”
c2645sg – 07/02/24 – “What's your AML pot average Paul?”
Although, the fact these questions usually come after I’ve highlighted fictional posts may be a clue.
- - - - - - - - - -
MarkPatrick – 26/02/24 - Quote: “C26: Wrong. We are not ALL waiting to hear AML007’s average. I for one am waiting to hear if YOU are invested here? Been waiting a long time. Please do tell?”
So, despite @c2645sg keen interest in other people’s AML holdings, @c2645sg will not confirm if they actually own any AML shares themselves, which does seem a rather hypocritical position.
Similarly, @c2645sg expects others to post the details of their AML share sales on here too.
c2645sg – 17/04/24 - Quote: “Let us know when you sell, please?!”
But @c2645sg never posted on here when they sold their ‘considerable amount’ of AML shares.
c2645sg – 27/10/20 – Quote: “More proof that long term thinking is better than short term. Forget wave theories. Buy a company that has this kind of potential and let it run. I won’t be selling ANY of the considerable amount I have for at least 3 years or anything under £1.50.”
For context, an AML SP target of £1.50 = £30 post the 20:1 consolidation in Dec.20.
After all, @c2645sg (falsely) claims to have called the 2021 SP peak, so it stands to reason that they would have posted something along the lines of ‘this is as good as it will get, so I’m selling now’.
@c2645sg – Tell you what, if you show me your “I sold” posts, then I’ll show you mine. ;-)
- - - - - - - - - -
@EveryoneElse – Apologies for the sheer length of these posts, but please see ‘Brandolini’s Law’.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law
Cheers, Paul. :)
Yawn.
What's you AML average, aml007?
Simple question, simple answer, we don't need 6 pages of guff.
Or are you too scared t post it?
Your? Same ting you asked innit?
But I would have not believe you is you put numbers on this post - purely to$$er.
@c2645sg – So, after highlighting your ‘double standards & hypocrisy’ in Part 6, you believe the best way to bait me into answering your question is to suggest I am “too scared” to reply? < Roll Eyes >
I offered to “show you mine” in return for you showing me where you posted about selling your ‘considerable amount’ of AML shares. So, if you are really that desperate to know, quid pro quo.
Cheers, Paul. :)
PS
@c2645sg - Are you using the Cambridge dictionary definition of ‘guff’?
Guff - noun – Speech or writing that is nonsense.
As you are completely correct that many of your quotes in my posts (“Picciotto was buying millions of shares at £18/19” or “Priced for its 8th bankruptcy now”) definitely meet the definition of ‘guff’.
Excuse after excuse.
If you're so sure about your AML investment, you'd post your average and stand by it.
We all know why you don't.... Because it shows you up to be the terrible investor you are.
You said your faith in Stroll would waved at £15, now it's £1.50, a TENTH of that.
It quite clear that aml cloth paul makes substantial huge loss here. £15 donw to £1.50. He can not claim otherwise. He desperate man. Claim not loss until solded.....wait for £15 will be forever! Haha! HAHA!
@TheAnswerIsNo – You are so fake, it is hardly worth the effort of highlighting it. < Roll Eyes >
Thankfully, here is one I prepared earlier…
Professor Henry Higgins himself would have been impressed with how you vastly improved your written English in the space of just two years.
TheAnswerIsNo – 25/08/21 – Quote: “Peoples not want electric car. Cloth brain people want electric car. I not buy car which have no engine which cost much. And battery might break! Then more money for non noise from engine. It bad in my opinion.”
TheAnswerIsNo – 08/03/23 – Quote: “Essentially 80% of the cash AML raised has already been vaporized. It’s a spectacular financial accomplishment and they really should name the next model the “Vanish”.”
Unfortunately, after reaching a point where you could make an exquisite play on words with ‘Vanish’, you then ‘somehow’ forgot how to write English coherently and have reverted back to your unique version of pidgin ever since, which must be some kind of first in the world of linguistics.
Alternatively, you forgot which user name you had logged on with and gave the game away. ;-)
- - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – What a surprize, I’ve highlighted your false/mis-information posts on here and, in return, you desperately change the subject back to me, in the vain hope that no one will notice.
So now I don’t post my average because I’m either too scared or not prepared to stand by it?
Nothing to do with you refusing to answer any questions, but expecting others to answer yours?
Are you sure English isn’t a second language? As you clearly don’t understand the word hypocrisy.
That ‘faith’ quote is from May21 & I’ve shown, with real numbers, 2022 was the year that counts.
However, in good will, I’ll offer you another ‘quid pro quo’ deal, if you what to know my average…
“…please share with the group how many shares I bought in 2022 & how much I paid for them.”
As you might say, simple question, simple answer, we don't need more posts of your guff.
Anyway, I’m off now and will be back on Monday night / Tuesday morning.
Cheers, Paul. :)
PS
@EveryoneElse – Did I mention ‘Brandolini’s Law’?
AML007:
The reason I am here is to stop the ramping:
"Topped up again, bought some more, this is undervalued, blah blah" all the BS of the day so people buy more.
It's working, you won't even share your average now, even when asked, haha.
Job done.
C26: ‘ The reason I am here is to stop the ramping’…because me and my team mates are contracted to negatively impact on sentiment. Just like tampers, we don’t take a balanced view or let facts get in the way.
Sorry - rampers not tampers!
Tim/c666bj/theanswerisstupid, don’t you ever look at the blank wall in your call centre and wish you had a proper job?
Son of Swiss don’t try and stop him/her - the more filtered messages I seem to get lately the more the share price creeps up!
It's down from £4 to £1.50 in 10 months.
Q1 results are always the worst of the year, released this Wednesday, and The Fed meeting for interest rates/inflation is this week too.
Price was run up for big sells again today.
C26 have you short this stock? As your continuous messages on this message board shows your desperation and that you are losing money.
For me, it’s a turn around story and if LS, Mercedes and Geely has invested in this company then I’m confident this company with make shareholders good money.
I am not short. Stop believing the criminals on here saying so, and listen to critical evaluation for once in your life.
People have been screaming turnaround since IPO, and AML is down 95%.
AML is burning through c.£400m of cash every year, and need to cash raise to sustain itself, because of economies of scale. It just can't do it on it's own.
Look at the DB12 software issue. Massive problems because they probably have a team of 20 working on it. Bentley, for example, have near unlimited resources for that kind of problem because they are owned by a huge multinational. Creating new software for every car in a multinational is cost effective because it's shared across every car in the range.
You are a sheep? You follow big companies' investment and invest just because they invest? Are you crazy? You know PIF are massively down on most of their recent investments? Check Lucid for one. You know Geely are in a tight spot right now because they have over-invested badly? If they got the chance to takeover AML with it's £1.3bn in debt they would probably have to decline right now.
Tell us all how AML will make enough money to pass back to shareholders?
Stroll has been promising FCF positive for years, and it gets put back every year.
Jam tomorrow, plain and simple.
Happy to hear your thoughts on all of the above. Let's keep it professional/on point and stop the conspiracy theories and name calling, it's not a good look and does nothing positive for the share price.
PS are you short on NCYT?
Stroll lies to shareholders all the time, and you're ok with that?
He said "let me be clear, black and white, we don't need any more cash" while raising £650m weeks later.
He says demand led model, then loads dealers with DBX, flooding the market and destroying used sales prices, just to miss already reduced sales targets he himself has made.
That's the definition of an liar, where do you stand on that exactly?
LondonWatcher
Posted in: NCYT
Posts: 58
Price: 68.00
Strong Sell
RE: Novacyt ' growth '27 Apr 2024 16:37
Can you trust a CEO who lied in the past and hide the facts from shareholders? I won’t as someone who lied in the past can do the same in future. For me it’s a question of ethics.
Omg….c26 I did not realised that you need a lot more help than I imagined. Take good care of yourself!!
I guess that means you have no answers to any of my questions.
I don't think it's me who needs help, I make my own luck.
Good luck with your gamble!