Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
@livestock – Thanks for link.
The thing I like about these professional ratings agencies is they balance the good and the bad.
And, overall, AML is clearly improving in their view with is a positive thing.
Will be interesting to see the approach Adrian Hallmark will take when he arrives.
Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :-)
@c2645sg – Do you need a hug?
After all, you did say that… “The more someone posts on here, the more desperate they are.”
And your posts yesterday had such an air of desperation, that perhaps they were a cry for help?
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c2645sg – Quote - “Because there is not a cash raise today, you think that's it forever?”
@c2645sg – Many people, myself included, have said there ‘may’ be a cash raise in the future. DYOR
The point, which you appear to be desperately trying to avoid, is you confused refinancing with CR.
AML raised over £1.1bn with neither a cash raise, nor a debt for equity swap and zero dilution.
Can you at least acknowledge your error, before getting slightly hysterical about something else?
c2645sg – 21/02/24 - Quote: “AML have said themselves there will be a fulsome refinancing…
Cash raise or debt for equity swap. No other way… tons of dilution coming your way…”
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c2645sg – Quote - “Why refinance when you ended up paying more in fees than what you save?”
AML Option 1 – Refinance existing debt due to expire in 2025/26.
AML Option 2 – Replay the existing debt in full in 2025/26.
Do you really want me to spell out why Option 1 costs AML less in 2025/26 than Option 2?
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c2645sg – Quote – “How are they going to pay for this debt refinancing?”
@c2645sg – You asked this before & I’ve answered it before, did you even read the RNS?
RNS – Quote - “The proceeds from the offering of the Notes… will be used… to pay expenses and fees in connection with the transactions”
I also told you AML still had £106m left over from the money they raised last year to pay off debt.
https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2023-results/aston-martin-lagonda-fy-2023-results.pdf
“Cash as at 31 December 2023 includes the remaining £106m of proceeds from August’s share placing, following the redemption of a portion of the outstanding second lien notes in November”
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@c2645sg – You calculated the new bond interest incorrectly, as it is neither $137m, nor £107m.
One bond is $, the other £, you have just added the 2 interest numbers together. < Roll Eyes >
@TheDuke2 explained PiK interest, highlighting how your old bond interest numbers are wrong too.
So, you posted the same mis-information four times in less than 30 minutes. #SchoolBoyErrors
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So many false narratives and so little time to challenge them all.
The good news is it is Friday, so have a good weekend everyone, cheers, Paul. :)
PS
Please don’t worry about my average, I’m fine & you seem to be worrying about too much as it is.
@TinyPie2 - Nothing wrong with a balanced assessment, there may be good and bad days ahead.
Although perhaps “no way” is another English phrase that @c2645sg doesn’t really understand? ;-)
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Prediction:
c2645sg – 29/02/24 - Quote: “No way AML can refinance on better terms than when the rates were almost zero, when still making hundreds of millions in losses, sales declining etc.”
Reality:
Oct.20 – AML $1.09bn loan @ 10.5% - Bank of England Base Rate = 0.1%
Mar.24 – AML $0.96bn loan @ 10.0% - Bank of England Base Rate = 5.25%
“Better terms” = BoE base rate increased over 5,000%, but AML bond rate reduced by 5%.
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Prediction:
c2645sg – 21/02/24 - Quote: “AML have said themselves there will be a fulsome refinancing…
Cash raise or debt for equity swap. No other way… tons of dilution coming your way…”
Reality:
AML raised over £1.1bn with neither a cash raise, nor a debt for equity swap, plus zero dilution.
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Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)
@selecta6 – Sorry, there should have been a < Wink > in my reply, as most F1 drivers have ‘glanced’.
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@NoahsArk – Please see the text book definition of refinancing:
“Refinancing is the replacement of an existing debt obligation with another debt obligation under a different term and interest rate.“
AML currently has two long term bonds:
- First Lien of £935m at 10.5% interest maturing in November 2025
- Second Lien of £169m at 15.0% split interest (8.9% cash; 6.1% PIK) maturing in November 2026
Yesterday’s RNS confirmed these two debts would be replaced with a single one, maturing in 2029.
So, there will still be £1,140 million of debt on AML’s books after the refinancing.
Note - The RNS gave “no assurance” as to “the terms”, i.e. the interest due in the next five years.
However, the improvement in AML’s credit rating announced yesterday should help. DYOR.
Finally, the RNS did say the notes would only be offered to “qualified institutional buyers”.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/qib.asp
And that these QIBs would be outside of the UK, USA & EEA.
Obviously, there is a QIB, outside those countries, connected to AML, that might be interested…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Investment_Fund
Did I mention DYOR? ;-)
Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)
@Son_of_Swiss – It does seem that AML used the text book definition of refinancing after all. ;-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refinancing
“Refinancing is the replacement of an existing debt obligation with another debt obligation under a different term and interest rate.“
So much for @c2645sg’s numerous posts about paying off debt, cash raises, debt for equity and even TERP (associated with an RI), none of which are refinancing.
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c2645sg – 11/03/24 - Quote: “Cash from the balance sheet also used to pay for debt refinancing.”
@c2645sg – And once again you are left desperately clutching at straws.
As AML still has £106m left over from the money they raised last year to pay off some of the debt.
See the bottom of Page 10
https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2023-results/aston-martin-lagonda-fy-2023-results.pdf
“Cash as at 31 December 2023 includes the remaining £106m of proceeds from August’s share placing, following the redemption of a portion of the outstanding second lien notes in November”
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@selecta6 – In fairness to Lance, he hit that wall going a LOT faster than Max Verstappen did here!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8cliRvl2rk
And you don’t hear many people saying Max isn’t one of the greatest F1 drivers ever.
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Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)
C2645sg - 07/03/24 – Quote – “But the share price agrees with me”
@c2645sg – How exactly does the share price agree with your claim that inflation was over 6%?
Or were you just changing the subject to avoid answering the question / providing any evidence?
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And the Academy Award for most ironic LSE share chat post of the year goes to…
c2645sg - 07/03/24 – Quote – “You keep trying to weave a false narrative, it won't work.”
Or do you actually believe your Mercedes selling/profit warning/bankruptcy/etc. posts were true?
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Happy Friday everyone, cheers, Paul. :)
C2645sg - 06/03/24 – Quote - “Core ESPs were up 6%, WHICH IS LOWER THAN INFLATION!”
@c2645sg – Can you provide your evidence that inflation where AML sells cars was more than 6%?
Do you have a sophisticated model combining sales by country with that country’s inflation rate?
As the most basic of checks suggests that AML’s core ASP has increased by MORE than inflation.
UK - “4.2% in the 12 months to December 2023”
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/december2023
USA – 3.4%
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/01/11/december-2023-cpi-report/
Europe – 3.4%
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/18343103/2-17012024-AP-EN.pdf/9d885442-f323-cdde-e149-17ed99a63a6f#:~:text=European%20Union%20annual%20inflation%20was,and%20Belgium%20(both%200.5%25).
China – 0.2%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/270338/inflation-rate-in-china/
What impact do AML sales in China, with almost no inflation, have on the inflation average?
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c2645sg - Quote - “What happens if Lucid goes bust?”
What happens if the sky isn’t falling & it was just an acorn, that fell from a tree & hit your head? ;-)
For someone who claims to stick to facts, you do post a LOT of idle/hysterical speculation.
Or have you forgotten all your (incorrect) “Mercedes are selling” & “priced for bankruptcy” posts?
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Have a nice day, cheers, Paul. :)
05/03/24 – Quotes:
- c2645sg - “Asp’s are only up because of specials, including valkyrie.”
- Richard365054 – “ASPs have been steadily climbing regardless of specials.”
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And the winner is… @Richard365054, with @c2645sg being wrong yet again.
Both the “core” & “total” ASP are up, where the “core” ASP specifically excludes the Valkyrie.
Core ASP up from £136k in 2020 to £188k in 2023, see Slide #13 here:
https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2023-results/aston-martin-lagonda-fy-2023-results-presentation.pdf?rev=e898bb4b418a4352a4c2362e87fe1a31
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And let’s not forget 2023 Valkyrie production was 87, when @c2645sg insisted it was 17 a year max.
At least @c2645sg continued their unbroken record of incorrectly predicting AML sales numbers…
c2645sg - 20/01/24 – “UK sales down over 12% in 2023 compared to 2022… 7000-12% = 6160 sales.”
Actual sales = 6,620.
Which was not materially different to the 6,700 market guidance, so no profit warning required.
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So much mis-information on here & so little time. < Roll Eyes >
Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg – My apologies.
Silly me, I was waiting for your reply to my last post about the false claims you’ve made on here.
But, as always, you simply changed the subject, rather than providing even a “ghost of a point”.
So why do you continue to expect/demand that everyone else should answer your questions?
After all, you will still not say whether, or not, you even hold AML shares, let alone their average.
@MarkPatrick has asked reasonable questions about one of your posts, will you answer them?
If not, then please try not to get upset if I don’t shout “How high?” whenever you say “Jump!”.
Have a nice day, cheers, Paul. :)
PS
You also seem to be confusing another English word, as pointing out your de-ramping isn’t ramping.
Son_of_Swiss – 28/02/23 – Quote: Doug Lafferty just said it twice 'No equity raise'
[Mandy Rice-Davies]
"Well he would, wouldn't he?"
[/Mandy Rice-Davies]
< Wink >
Jokes aside, it will be interesting to see which way AML goes with the refinancing.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg – “infallible”?
Is English a second language for you?
Because the following are just some examples of your ‘I’m always right’ claims, not mine:
- To have correctly called the AML SP, when you didn’t.
- To repeatedly say Mercedes were selling up, when they weren’t.
- To predict a profit warning 8 times in 7 weeks, when no profit warning was issued.
- To quote “fulsome refinancing” and then talk about paying off debt, cash raises, debt for equity and even TERP (associated with an RI), none of which are refinancing.
- To confidently predict AML annual car sales numbers and be wrong year after year.
- To claim my average is “hideous”, without knowing any details about my 2022 dealing activity.
- To say that I’m selling now, when you have no access to what I am doing in the real world.
Similarly, you seem to be confusing the difference between ‘knowing’ & ‘sharing’ my average. ;-)
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@MarkPatrick – If the 'rinse & repeat' posts are bad now, wait until the results are out. < Roll Eyes >
Have a good one, cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg – Get over what exactly?
Get over the fact that you don’t want to use the UK Stock Exchange definition of a Profit Warning?
As it really doesn’t matter what you, me or Stroll think should be seen as material/marginal.
AML is a FTSE 250 company & therefore AML follows the UK Stock Exchange rules & definitions.
Is it really that difficult for you to use a simple FTSE technical term correctly on a share chat?
Same goes for quoting AML’s “refinancing” before talking about things that are not refinancing.
Otherwise, it might be said you appear to be posting ‘false or misleading’ information on here.
Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)
C2645sg – 22/02/24 - Quote:
“If that's not a warning that earnings will be materially less than expected, I don't know what is.”
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@c2645sg – You do appear to be confirming that you don’t know what a profit warning is.
The key word is “materially”, not to be confused with marginally, or not 100% the same as forecast.
AML are required by law to issue a profit warning, via RNS, if results will be materially different.
(Which AML did for their 2019 & 2021 annual accounts, but not for 2023.)
Only the UK Stock Market definition of materially counts, not what you think it is/should be.
Therefore, on a share chat, by definition, you are using the phrase ‘Profit Warning’ incorrectly.
@Son_of_Swiss – Sorry, we might have been talking at cross-purposes.
I thought you meant an existing ‘big player’ buying at these low prices to reach the 30% controlling interest mark & then making a mandatory offer under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code.
In those circumstances, the offer price would have to be the highest price paid by that ‘player’ in the 12 months before the 30% point was reached (which was the £3.71 CR on 01/08/23).
Part of the mandatory offer rules allows a “Squeeze-out of the minority”. For this to happen, then the ‘player’ would need 90% of the remaining shares to accept the offer.
And I can’t see why the other ‘big players’ would agree to sell at the current prices.
Note – I’d prepared a similar answer on here before and there are more details here:
https://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/PDF/takeover_guide.pdf
Hope that helps.
Cheers, Paul. :)
PS – I’m still not saying, or even suggesting, there will be a take over bid.
@c2645sg – You know the de-rampers are desperate when they start mis-representing posts. ;-)
#Facts - @Son_of_Swiss suggested there might be a takeover bid at these current low prices.
I corrected him, by pointing out that the big players can’t launch a takeover bid at these prices.
At no point did I say, or even suggest, there was going to be a takeover bid at £3.71. < Roll Eyes >
Some much mis-representation of facts, so little time.
Have a good day all. Cheers, Paul. :)
@chesil356 – Thanks for the link.
At least a 70% improvement from £268.2m to £455m in 2024 is a small step in the right direction.
“For the whole of 2024, Goldman said it forecasts adjusted EBITDA of £455 million, which is around 3% ahead of the City average.”
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@c2645sg – Is this your subtle way of admitting your 8 x 2023 profit warning posts were wrong?
As Goldman Sachs are clearly not predicting “materially below” profits, are they?
“A profit warning is an official statement to the stock exchange from a publicly listed company that says that it will report full-year profits materially below management or market expectations.”
https://www.ey.com/en_uk/strategy-transactions/profit-warnings
Remembering that a profit warning is a legal requirement that AML can’t keep “super quiet”.
Apologies for putting multiple thread replies into one place...
Starting with the 400 extra jobs, the 2022 accounts showed AML had 2,473 permanent staff.
I couldn’t see a total for agency staff, but another 400 people is still a decent % increase.
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@Richard365054 – There does seem to be an interesting debate about ‘Greenwashing’ these days.
As lithium doesn't grow on trees and 1/3rd of UK electricity still comes from fossil fuels (gas).
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@MarkPatrick – Any other feedback on your DB12 test drive?
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@astonbroomes – I don’t know how you can challenge multiple false claims & lies without highlighting them? Calming stating facts and figures seems like acting like a grown up to me. Replying with the equivalent of ‘Liar, liar, pants on fire” – not so much. ;-)
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@Son_of_Swiss - “only a tiny percentage is being traded atm”
Biggest trading day in the last 3 months was 4.4m, out of 823m total shares, round 0.5%.
https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda
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@Son_of_Swiss - “at these silly prices one of the big players makes a bid and take this over”
The Big Four (Yew Tree, PIF, Mercedes & Geely) would have to offer at least £3.71 per share.
Based on highest price they paid for any shares in last 12 months, which was the 01/08/23 CR.
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Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)
PS
Surely, the most ironic thing posted recently was “Imagine lying about…”. ;-)
@advocate1973 – There wasn’t even a wafer thin veneer of credibility in that “quarantine” post.
And bringing up old posts about the prices I’ve paid doesn’t really change that fact, does it?
After all, I’ve never denied I paid high prices for ‘some’, not all, of my AML shares, see quote below.
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AML_007 – 21/01/24 - Quote: “I have already made money from my AML shareholding.
Yes, I bought shares at high prices, but I also bought shares at low prices, that’s what an average is!
My experience was similar to that of Michael de Picciotto / St.James Invest SA.”
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Whereas, @c2645sg refuses to say if they still hold their “considerable amount” of AML shares.
Or show their “I’m selling” post, changing their 2020 buy advice of “let it run” for 3 years/£30.
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@advocate1973 – Anyway, I’ll try to pull together a post on AML averages in the next week, or so.
Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)
@Son_of_Swiss – Come on now, you know full well that @c2645sg has high standards…
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c2645sg – 14/12/22 - Quote:
“When you state things then fail to provide evidence, you lose all credibility…
That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
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So, I am sure @c2645sg must have very good evidence to back up this statement:
“All DB12s in quarantine waiting for software upgrade.”
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Obviously, the definition of ‘evidence’ doesn’t cover something you read on PistonHeads. ;-)
Cheers, Paul. :)