Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
@Daviddavid – Unfortunately, the list of ‘AML Director Deals’ on here doesn’t really add up.
So, the following should be taken with a pinch of salt…
Prior to the RI, Stroll’s holding was listed at 25,580,675 shares on 14/09/22.
However, his RI was shown as 79,102,240, which, when divided by 4, suggests a holding of 19,775,560.
If you take 19.7m shares at 50p in old money, or £10 post 20:1 consolidation, cost = £197.7m.
Stroll’s RI was 79m+ shares @£1.03 = £84.4m.
Plus, his RI ‘rump’ of 4.1m shares @ £1.32 = £5.4m.
Ignoring the (relatively) small Nov.22 buys, that gives 102.9m+ shares, costing £284.6m.
Which would make Stroll’s average around the £2.76 mark (give or take a bit).
As always DYOR, but hope that helps.
Cheers, Paul. :)
PS
I was updating similar calculations for Michael de Picciotto & associates, so I’ll post those next.
advocate1973 – Quote – “Anyone see the massive slip up the other day”
@advocate1973 – I got a lot of green boxes on here this week, but that is a good one.
As my friend from Poland used to say “Lies have short legs”.
Take this example from ‘another place’, but a poster familiar to most on here…
@Swiss Tony - 09/11/22 - “I called it correctly from £23 down to £1.”
@Swiss Tony - 28/09/22 - “I am not short… I sold my rights though.”
So, they called the top, and the drop to £1, but were still holding AML shares in Sep.22?
(To qualify for the RI, that they didn’t take up, thus diluting their holding.)
Hmmmm…
Have a nice Sunday.
Take care, Paul. :)
TerryMC1 – Quote – “…was right for most of it…”
@TerryMC1 - Are you sure about that?
Big difference between what they claimed they said and what they actually said…
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&page=2&thread=16EB0448-6072-4769-97F8-D38F96A7BA54
Their Mercedes sell-off speculation was also just that…
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=7030ADC9-ED1C-463C-8222-EC9802C5E340
And their 2022 sales predictions weren’t right either…
Prediction - 18/02/22 – “It's taking them 3 weeks to build one Valkyrie. That's 17 per year.”
Actual - 2022 Deliveries = 80 Valkyrie
Prediction - 04/05/22 - “2022 is already definitely worse than 2021, and that's before people stop buying GT/sports cars before the update.”
Actual - 2022 GT/Sports Sales = GT @ 1,833 + Sports @ 1,271 = Total of 3,104 cars
Predictions:
- 06/10/22 - “H1 was 2675 sales, and that run rates looks similar in H2 so far. So roughly selling 5300 ish”
- 07/10/22 - “H1 sales were c.2500, therefore full year is 5000”
Actual - 2022 Sales = 6,412
Note - I filtered them last year, so no idea what they are posting these days.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Vorlich001 – Thanks for the link.
Loved the look of genuine fear in Chris’s eyes while driving the Pro into one corner.
But how unfit is he, with all the huffing and puffing while driving the road car?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure it is a handful, but I don’t drive fast cars for a living. ;-)
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Richard365054 – Spooky, I’d written this earlier, but hadn’t posted it before I saw your post.
- - - - - - - - - -
Clearly there was a lot of love in the paddock for Alonso’s result.
I also got the impression Lance had gained some respect out there too.
As he missed 3 days of testing with the new car on the race circuit and was clearly racing injured.
(Post race interview with flip flops for his broken toe & kept rotating the wrist he had surgery on.)
Although the views may have been very different if he took himself and Alonso out on lap 1!
Today’s ‘The Times’ has main features on AML in the business section and AMF1 in the sports section.
I hope the Saudi GP sees PIF say something/anything about their AML investment.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Son_of_Swiss & @TinyPie2 – Good to see Alonso is still keeping his feet firmly on the ground.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/64838388
As the risk of team/driver mistakes was a running theme of the latest ‘Drive to Survive’ series.
- - - - - - - - - -
In AML news…
A £2.40 SP means PIF have turned their circa £174m AML investment into £279m.
(As their average is just £1.49 from the placing & RI, so PIF is up £105m!)
Obviously, we all know the AML SP can go down, as well as up, so let’s see where it ends up.
Have a good weekend, cheers, Paul. :)
@RonR – Try here:
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BN7CG237/
The short tracker on here got messed up when Blackrock & Gladstone reduced this month.
(As they were removed completely, rather than reduced.)
Ghini – 15/02/23 - Quote: “…Reason is those will probably be built by Multimatic, like the Valkyrie…
…Very small chance that MM will start building Valhallas before Valkyries are finished.”
- - - - - - - - - -
@Ghini – This was covered back in 2022… Multimatic do not build the Valkyrie, ‘just’ the tub.
https://media.astonmartin.com/first-aston-martin-valkyrie-customer-car-complete/
Quote - “Like all Aston Martin sports cars, Valkyrie is being built at the marque’s UK Headquarters in ***don. A dedicated project delivery team manages the build right through to delivery in a specially commissioned Valkyrie production area. A team of highly skilled technicians are hand-building each of the 150 cars, with each Valkyrie taking over 2000 man hours to create.”
EVO magazine also confirmed the Valkyrie was being built in ***don.
https://www.evo.co.uk/aston-martin/204787/interview-lawrence-stroll-executive-chairman-aston-martin-lagonda
Quote - “When we visited ***don in February, a further three were in build, two were waiting to be started, two completed cars were awaiting sign-off, with nine carbonfibre tubs freshly delivered from Multimatic awaiting their turn to enter the assembly hall.”
Note - Multimatic were involved in the development of the Valkyrie and the initial prototypes.
(And the Valhalla photo on their website suggests they are also involved in this car too.)
But Multimatic themselves do not take any credit for building production/customer Valkyries.
https://www.multimatic.com/vehicles/
However, if ever there was a case where lessons should be learned, it is Valhalla following Valkyrie.
The Valhalla selling price rules out a hand-built car, so its final design must incorporate production.
(Especially if AML are targeting a higher margin on each car they build/sell.)
Have a nice Sunday, cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – I read that as deliveries to the Singapore dealer were due end of 2024.
(Rather than first deliveries ‘anywhere’.)
Unfortunately, no date on this piece, but it is still talking about production in 2023.
https://www.stratstone.com/aston-martin/new-cars/valhalla/
Hopefully, the 2022 Results and 2023 Guidance will shed some light on this soon(ish).
- - - - - - - - - -
Doyezee – 15/02/23 - Quote: “SP up 15% in 5 days on no news and now at 52 week high. Must be something going around ‘closed circles’ to fuel this”
@Doyezee – The trading volumes are still low in 2023 and I think all the big players are just holding.
But, as you say, there is no real news driving the price up and it was 89p as recently as 02/11/22.
And I’d definitely prefer it to be hovering around £2, rather than 90p. {Wink}
Let’s see what 2023 will bring.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Doyezee – It would be interesting to hear what PIF’s plans for AML are.
PIF got two board members back in Nov.22, but no real announcements about the future.
- - - - - - - - - -
@Ghini – Below in an extract from a post I wrote on 29/12/22…
- - - - - - - - - -
“MarketScreener shows the number of shares Mercedes held *before* the RI = 13,615,299.
Add a 4:1 RI (54,461,196), which was declared, as per rules above = 68,076,495 current holding.
Who really believes Mercedes would not follow UK stock market rules and try to sell shares ‘under the counter’ and hope no one notices?”
- - - - - - - - - -
Have a good weekend, cheers, Paul. :)
Happy Birthday Aston Martin!
110 years old today.
What would the people behind the 1923 Razor Blade make of the 2023 Valkyrie?
https://media.astonmartin.com/aston-martin-ignites-year-long-celebration-of-110th-anniversary/
- - - - - - - - - -
@TinyPie2 – Thanks for the link to the DB11 replacement.
@Richard365054 – Thanks for the sales updates.
@advocate1973 – No January RNS / 2022 trading update means AML’s revised targets were met:
- Wholesales of between 6,200 and 6,600
- Valkyries between 75 and 90
Even if they are at the bottom of the range, they are still a lot higher than Mystic Meg’s predictions.
(Quotes taken from one of my previous replies, as they remain filtered to me.)
- - - - - - - - - -
@Troll – 06/10/22
Quote: “H1 was 2675 sales, and that run rates looks similar in H2 so far. So roughly selling 5300 ish”
@Troll – 07/10/22
Quote: “H1 sales were c.2500, therefore full year is 5000”
- - - - - - - - - -
Anyway, have a good Sunday, cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – Last year, there was a brief 2021 trading update on 07/01/22.
This covered missing the previously published Valkyrie target (among other things).
So, there may be a 2022 update on Monday, if the revised 2022 targets were met/missed/exceeded.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – These days, I just want to avoid the risk of repeating what is already posted in a green box.
As the whole point of a Troll is to get a reaction to what they post, so why would I want to read it?
I’ve said this before, an internet forum can be like a big pub, with lots of different people in it…
Just because someone is allowed in, doesn’t mean I need to waste my time listening/talking to them.
You know the sort, telling you Covid vaccines allow the 5G network access to your bank account. ;-)
Anyway, as you say, Happy New Year to all and let’s see what 2023 brings.
Cheers, Paul. :)
Ghini – 07/12/22 - @advocate: One: you can ignore people, you do not have to respond to them. Two: dont embarrass yourself by showing to world you do not know Star Wars. He talks like Yoda. "The greatest teacher, failure is." So now you know..
- - - - - - - - - -
@Ghini – An old quote I know, but your “He talks like Yoda” did make me laugh at the time.
If, and it is a big IF, you believe everything you read on the internet…
@TheAnswerIsNo talks like that because he is from Africa and has never been to England.
Hmmmm…
So, if you think this sounds like Yoda’s wisdom…
@TheAnswerIsNo – 25/08/21 – Quote: “Peoples not want electric car. Cloth brain people want electric car. I not buy car which have no engine which cost much. And battery might break! Then more money for non noise from engine. It bad in my opinion.”
Then perhaps you don’t know Star Wars either. {Wink}
- - - - - - - - - -
And that is before you consider he only mentioned selling AML at the top six months after he joined.
(Initially, he just complained about electric cars, throwing sticks, bad legs, cloth brains, etc.)
At which point, he started thanking “C26” for the good advice to sell, as he made lots of “monies” too.
Given his great selling prices, you’d think thanking C26 would be the first thing he would do on here.
(As, apparently, he ‘solded’ @ £21 / £21.65 / £21.74 / £22 / £22.72 / £22.73.)
But here is the real rub…
@c2645sg never actually posted any advice to sell when the AML SP was in the £21/£22 range.
As they were apparently still buying in Jun21:
“Nice, hit my limit order of 1910. Keeping some in reserve in case it goes lower.”
And still holding in Nov21:
“I am an unhappy shareholder. The share price has dropped from £23 to £16 this year”
More details about what @c2645sg did, or did not, post about the AML SP here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&page=2&thread=16EB0448-6072-4769-97F8-D38F96A7BA54
- - - - - - - - - -
@Ghini – Thankfully, your other quote of “you can ignore people”, is the definitely good advice.
"If it looks like a Troll, posts like a Troll, and reacts like a Troll, then it probably is a Troll."
Cheers, Paul. :)
@TheAnswerIsNo – By chance, I’d recently unfiltered you for my other post.
Are you really saying that predicting the SP is a guide to cleverness?
In which case…
- - - - - - - - - -
Quote - @TheAnswerIsNo – 13/10/21: “Its not complicrated, go to £18.75 slowsly and then will be £14.55 on Fevruary 7th. Ifs I not right I go away forever to badland and lives there.”
Actual AML SP on 7th Feb.22 = Range £11.17 to £11.53
- - - - - - - - - -
Quote - @TheAnswerIsNo – 13/01/22: “I buyed smaller amount at £13.26 and leave until July and then sell and get outs.”
Actual AML SP in Jul22 = Range £3.51 to £6.29
- - - - - - - - - -
Hmmmm...
Back in the filter box you go. {Wink}
@Ghini – I see a lot of green boxes, but assume, based on your reply, this is Karenable related.
In which case, never let the facts get in the way of more idle speculation based on ‘sand’. {Wink}
Karenable – 28/12/22 – Quote - “If this latter figure is accurate”.
Hardly the solid foundation to build a compelling case upon, especially as there are rules:
“In accordance with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) rules, Panel of Takeover and Mergers board (PTM) rules, an investor who acquires, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% of a UK Company, must, under the Companies Act 1985 Section 198, disclose their interests to the London Stock Exchange and the company, within two days.”
For reference, the timeline for Geely’s stake being made public was 3 days:
- 28/09/22 – Crossed threshold
- 29/09/22 – Notified
- 30/09/22 – RNS confirmation
But, according to Karenable, 3 months after Geely got their shares from either Mercedes or Invesco, neither company have declared a corresponding reduction in their own AML holdings?
- - - - - - - - - -
Note:
MarketScreener shows the number of shares Mercedes held *before* the RI = 13,615,299.
Add a 4:1 RI (54,461,196), which was declared, as per rules above = 68,076,495 current holding.
Who really believes Mercedes would not follow UK stock market rules and try to sell shares ‘under the counter’ and hope no one notices?
- - - - - - - - - -
Cheers, Paul. :)