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@Berrin – Honestly, how can anyone be expected to keep up with the sheer scale of the nonsense?

For the first two weeks of October, @c2645sg repeatedly posted “£194m cash left @ June 2024”. Yet, yesterday, they started posting “£59m cash left as of June 2024”, as if nothing had happened before.

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c2645sg – 22/10/24 - Quote: “How can asking questions be arrogant?”

@c2645sg – Too easy, when you are not prepared to answer any questions asked of you! ;-)

So, once more with feeling… Do you still hold your AML shares? If not, when did you sell them?

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c2645sg – 22/10/24 - Quote: “Also, what's your native Language Noah?”

@c2645sg – Given your regular supply of malaphors, what is yours? ;-)

c2645sg – 01/10/24 - “Laughing out my ass.”

c2645sg – 22/10/24 – “It's really not rocket surgery.” #NeverNotFunny

And not forgetting your regular poor use of ‘Technical’ English, E.g.:

c2645sg – 21/02/24 - “AML have said themselves there will be a fulsome refinancing… Cash raise or debt for equity swap. No other way… tons of dilution coming your way…”

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Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg – 21/10/24 - Quote: “Whoever wrote that post to me is filtered so I have no idea how I could read it, never mind step in.”

@c2645sg – Hmmm… are you sure? Because at 8.20am on the 14th Oct, I made a post about you complaining about AML ‘fanboys’ being ironic, given the fact that your own AML SP target was £30.

A mere 20 minutes later, you responded by changing the subject and using an old quote of mine from 2021, while ignoring the multiple posts I’ve made since then, explaining when my faith in AML was rewarded and the mathematics behind how it was. #CherryPickingQuotesAgain

Now, you want us to believe you didn’t read my post, because I’m filtered to you, and the fact you posted something about me 20 minutes after my post about you is pure luck/coincidence? < Roll Eyes >

[Harry Hill] "What are the chances of that happening, eh?" [/Harry Hill] ;-)

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TheAnswerIsNo - 21/10/24 – Quote: “Yawn”

@TheAnswerIsNo – I’m surprised you are only just getting bored now. Because if we are to believe your quote from earlier this month (see below), you joined LSE Chat after making a ton of money from AML and haven’t got bored posting your fake poor English nonsense on here for over three years since then.

TheAnswerIsNo - 04/10/24 – Quote: “I maded £771000… I got Ferrari with my profit”

Maybe it is just me, but if the above post isn’t true, it would make you quite pitiful really. Alternatively, if you did make £771k and can’t think of anything better to do than spend years posting gibberish on a random Share Chat, it would, without a doubt, make you an even more spectacularly sad individual, wouldn’t it? #GetALife

Previously, I pointed out that you claimed you “solded” your AML shares at (take your pick) £21 / 21.65 / 21.74 / 22 / 22.72 / 22.73 after reading @c2645sg’s advice to sell. Except that @c2645sg never posted any advice to sell when the SP was around the £22 mark. Instead, @c2645sg posted about topping up at £19 after the SP had dropped from its peak. #ThosePeskyIncovenientFactsAgain

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Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)

PS

Anyone else want to ask @c2645sg about his AML being “£40m short” calculation? ;-)

Son_of_Swiss – 16/10/24 – “You twist reality or simply lie and really don’t care what anyone else thinks”

@Son_of_Swiss – See below for another example of @c2645sg and ‘Brandolini’s Law’ in action. ;-)

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c2645sg – 16/10/24 - Quote: Jefferies: "The firm now projects a negative free cash flow of £424 million for 2024, significantly increasing the likelihood of new equity needing to be raised."

H1 was 313m cash burn, so Jefferies are now expecting AML to burn another 111m in H2.

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c2645sg – 16/10/24 (+ same post, multiple times, in the last two weeks) - Quote:

£382m liquidity - customer deposits of £188m = £194m cash left @ June 2024

H2 CAPEX (350m for the year / 2 for H2) is £175m, and bond debt interest payment is circa £60m (due in Q4) That’s £235m of outflow in H2

£235m outflow > £194m inflow imvho. So they are £40m short, minimum.

And that’s the best case scenario. Add in recalls, supply issues, selling fewer cars, the cost of raising more money etc. All figures taken directly from AML.

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@c2645sg – What exactly is the “£40m short” figure you are calculating here?

As it appears to be a meaningless ‘H1 cash left, minus H2 capital and H2 interest’ number?

For a start, AML’s H1 Report said “Total cash and available facilities was £247m on 30 June 2024”

https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2024-results/aston-martin-lagonda-h1-2024-results.pdf?rev=8e39d368651845cf912981306a71e6bc

Jefferies FCF forecast of negative £424m sits between the latest Low & Average consensus figures.

https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/consensus

Given H1 Revenue was £603m (same H1 link as before).

The Low consensus for H2 Revenue = £942m (£1,545m Full Year – £603m H1) and the Average consensus for H2 Revenue = £1,005m (£1,608m Full Year – £603m H1).

Therefore, Jefferies’ Full Year FCF forecast must include a H2 Revenue forecast in this ‘ball park’.

Why do your calculations for cash “outflow/inflow” not include any H2 revenue, or other H2 costs?

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So much nonsense and so little time to deal with it all. < Roll Eyes >

Have a good Friday everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

Astonbroomes - 14/10/24 – Quote - “Jeez, you guys have a lot of time!”

@astonbroomes – Unfortunately, most people do not have the time required to challenge the tidal wave of nonsense that is posted here on a daily basis. Any attempt to have a sensible debate is drowned out by those with the time to make 50 posts in a single day.

So, you might as well stock up on the popcorn & enjoy the circus, as sensible debate is pointless. ;-)

AML_007 – 04/10/24 – Quote ““The key questions are: Do they need cash? If so, how much? Can they raise it? How will they raise it? I just wanted to calmly point out that AML have used four different methods to raise cash recently (Private Debt, key investors, unequal CR & a RI) and each one would impact PIs differently… Without doubt, the risks to PIs depends on the method of raising cash.”

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contrariankiks – 14/10/24 - “Paul, I think c3p0 was being sarcastic when he wrote those comments. Back in those days, everyone was saying the sp was going to the moon.”

@contrariankiks – What part of that post sounds sarcastic to you? Because @c2645sg was still topping up their “considerable amount” of AML shares months later, in Jun21, after the £22 SP peak.

c2645sg – 11/06/21 – “Nice, hit my limit order of 1910. Keeping some in reserve in case it goes lower.”

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c2645sg – 14/10/24 - Quote: “Remember he said he would lose faith below £15”

@c2645sg – How could anyone forget? When you always use it to change the subject from your posts. ;-)

But, once again, your photographic memory is letting you down, as I have repeatedly explained how my faith in AML was rewarded when the SP was in the upper £3 range. I even showed you how averages work and why 2022 was more important for AML than 2021. So, why can’t you ever remember this?

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=9FBFFE45-270E-49F7-B2E1-34BD119991A4

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@c2645sg – Alternatively, why don’t you acknowledge some of the lies/nonsense that you have posted in 2024? You know this year, rather than three years ago. ;-) Here are just two, from many, examples:

c2645sg – 21/02/24 - “AML have said themselves there will be a fulsome refinancing… Cash raise or debt for equity swap. No other way… tons of dilution coming your way…”

c2645sg – 08/05/24 – “Cash raise will be under £1 for sure now, probably around 50p depending on how much they need.”

#Facts - AML’s £1bn+ refinancing was nothing like your (multiple) predictions and the £135m Private Debt Placing was not the equity cash raise that you (repeatedly) warned about. Remember?

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Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg – 01/10/24 - Quote: “If they need anything close to the £650m cash raise last year, it was c.60% dilution. That would equate to 48p today.”

@c2645sg – With enough ‘real’ bad news around, why do you feel the need to post nonsense like this?

AML have raised a LOT of cash, in a number of different ways, over the last few years: Private Debt Placing; new investors (PIF & Geely); an unequal CR (Insiders vs. PIs) and a 4:1 Rights issue.

Each of these options had a different impact on AML’s PIs. So, if you are really here to help, why not spell those options out clearly, rather than post ‘fog’ about a 60% dilution leading to a 48p SP?

Starting with “cash raise”, the last time AML needed some cash it was £135m via a Private Debt Placing, not from existing shareholders, therefore there was no equity dilution.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/announcement-of-successful-private-debt-placing-hshq99jpjyjeiyw.html

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“last year” = 2023, when there was a £216m equity cash raise, not a £650m one.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/result-of-equity-issue-c8j3x74zrxlapmm.html

“… 58,245,957 new Ordinary Shares… gross proceeds of £216.1 million at a price of 371 pence… which represents a discount of 6.2% to closing share price of 395p on 31 July 2023”

A 6.2% discount applied from the ‘cash raise last year’ equates to 112p today, not 48p (using your 120p current SP starting point for a 60% discount to get 48p).

This CR was not an equal split (98% ‘insiders’ vs. 2% PIs), resulting in some PI equity dilution, but not 60%. As 58m shares was around 8% of the 737m shares in circulation before the CR. But this is the point @NoahsArk was making that AML have the option to raise more cash from just insiders.

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AML also raised cash from Geely’s £94m investment in 2023, which added 28m shares to the 698m in circulation (4%), which also resulted in some PI equity dilution, but not 60%.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/substantial-investment-in-aston-martin-by-geely-q94k6aqturtuixu.html

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The £653m cash raise was in 2022 and was in two parts: a £78m CR from PIF, plus a £575m 4:1 Rights Issue. PIF’s 23m shares also resulted in a PI equity dilution, but were 20% of the 139m AML shares in circulation before the RI. However, from that point, if a PI exercised their RI options in full, there was 0% equity dilution resulting from the £575m CR, as you had the same % of shares before & after.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/4-for-1-c1635758-million-rights-issue-x5qk6ko1d4c1dpb.html

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Note – I don’t know which option AML will choose if they want to raise more money (DYOR).

Obviously, a combination of @c2645sg’s 86 posts in just 3 days and ‘Brandolini’s Law’, means it’s impossible to correct all the nonsense posted on here. < Roll Eyes >

Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

PS

I’m

TheAnswerIsNo - 01/10/24 – Quote - “You admit you wrongs all the while?”

Part 1: @TheAnswerIsNo - Can you point out what exactly was wrong with my Mar.24 post (see below)? I said there ‘may’ be a cash raise. I also pointed out that the AML refinancing was not the cash raise, or debt for equity swap, that @c2645sg predicted it would be on multiple occasions.

AML_007 – 15/03/24 - Quote - “@c2645sg – Many people, myself included, have said there ‘may’ be a cash raise in the future. DYOR The point, which you appear to be desperately trying to avoid, is you confused refinancing with CR. AML raised over £1.1bn with neither a cash raise, nor a debt for equity swap and zero dilution. Can you at least acknowledge your error, before getting slightly hysterical about something else?”

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Part 2 - @TheAnswerIsNo – I am also not wrong when I say you are faking the poor English you write with, as no one can write the paragraph you did in Mar.23 one day (see below) and then ‘somehow’ forget how to write properly the next. And it certainly isn’t my fault that you forgot to check what user name you were logged in under before posting, is it? ;-)

TheAnswerIsNo - 08/03/23 – Quote: “Essentially 80% of the cash AML raised has already been vaporized. It’s a spectacular financial accomplishment and they really should name the next model the “Vanish”.”

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TheAnswerIsNo - 01/10/24 – Quote - “You were tolded and you not listen”

@TheAnswerIsNo – Well, I was ‘tolded’ AML was going bankrupt by @c2645sg in Oct.22 and you are 100% correct that I didn’t listen. Which was a very good thing indeed, because if I had sold my shares then, with the SP in the 90p range, I would have crystallised a HUGE loss. Instead, I held on, topped up, lowered my average still further and sold AML shares in Jul.23. for a profit, after the SP had risen over 300% to the high £3s.

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As always, so much nonsense and so little time. < Roll Eyes >

Cheers, Paul. :)

Did anyone else get this error message when trying to connect yesterday?

“Connection failed: SQLSTATE[HY000] [2002] Connection refused”

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c2645sg – 06/07/23 – Quote: “The more someone posts on here, the more desperate they are.”

@c2645sg – In which case, what does your new record of 50 posts in a single day make you? ;-)

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#DoubleStandards

c2645sg – 30/09/24 – “Noah, stop the snide nonsense and talk like a grown up, it's pathetic.”

c2645sg – 30/09/24 – “AML007, Paul, where is your smug little face this morning?”

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#DoubleStandards

c2645sg – 30/09/24 – “they have been proven wrong so many times, and still they refuse to admit it.”

@c2645sg – You have been proven wrong so many times in 2024 alone & you still refuse to admit it. ;-)

Fulsome refinancing means “cash raise or debt for equity swap”, which it didn’t; “No way AML can refinance on better terms” when they could; ‘2024 AGM Resolutions mean Stroll taking AML Private’, but same resolutions in 2021, 2022 & 2023; Equity cash raise (“Cash raise will be under £1 for sure now, probably around 50p”), when it was a private debt placing; 8 x 2023 Profit Warnings, but no profit warning issued; 2023 annual sales forecast of 6,160 sales vs. actual sales of 6,620; AML winning the Nebula court case; Adrian Newey getting shares in AMF1 will dilute AML shareholders; Etc.

- - - - - - - - - -

#DejaVu

c2645sg – 30/09/24 – “…from a company who could go bankrupt at any moment?”

c2645sg – 13/10/22 – “Priced for its 8th bankruptcy now.”

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#Irony

c2645sg – 30/09/24 –“People have been screaming turnaround since IPO, and AML is down 95%.”

@c2645sg – With your photographic memory, why do you keep forgetting that you were one of these “people”? Where your £1.50 target equated to a £30 SP post the 20:1 consolidation in Dec.20.

c2645sg – 27/10/20 – “More proof that long term thinking is better than short term. Forget wave theories. Buy a company that has this kind of potential and let it run. I won’t be selling ANY of the considerable amount I have for at least 3 years or anything under £1.50.”

- - - - - - - - - -

Finally, just to be clear, none of the above is disputing the facts of yesterday’s Profit Warning (just demonstrating ‘Brandolini’s Law’ in action and highlighting hypocrisy).

AML (& Stellantis) made the front cover of today’s FT for a reason, and that reason wasn’t good.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@TheDuke2 – Thanks for the link, very interesting.

@Berrin – Your H2 consensus maths looks correct to me. < Thumbs Up >

https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2024-results/aston-martin-lagonda-h1-2024-results-presentation.pdf?rev=4aeafac65cd24534b88fcb6b226149be

2024 H1 Results - Page 13: 2024 H1 FCF = (£313m)

Expanding @Berrin’s answers into their component parts we get:

Consensus FCF high: Full Year 2024 = (£129m) Less H1 2024 (£313m) = +£184m H2 2024

Consensus FCF average: Full Year = (£199m) Less H1 (£313m) = +£114m H2

Consensus FCF low: Full Year = (£287m) Less H1 (£313m) = +£26m H2

All of the above consensus options show AML to be FCF positive in H2.

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c2645sg – 23/09/24 – Quote - “Average consensus for Free cash flow is MINUS £51m for Q3. Then the debt interest payments are due in Q4, around £60m payment, so anyone who expects FCF positive in H2 is not to be trusted.”

c2645sg – 23/09/24 – Quote - “So, let's take the average of £114m positive cash flow for H2. Q3 consensus is NEGATIVE £51m. Therefore Q4, has to be FCF positive to the tune of £165m when they have to pay debt interest of c.£60m in one payment. More chance of a bus to the moon.”

@c2645sg – Oh dear, your logic is now all over the place, as you desperately clutch at straws.

So, let’s get this straight, you are happy to quote the average consensus for Q3 FCF, but not H2 or 2025? (And by happy, I mean you are literally SHOUTING “minus” and “negative” like a Town Crier.)

But the same analysts who gave you Q3 should not be trusted for H2 or 2025?

Do you really think all of the analysts (Barclays, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Mediobanca Securities, Bernstein, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Kepler Cheuvreux & ODDO BHF) ‘somehow’ forgot to include the Q4 debt interest in their calculations? < Roll Eyes >

The analysts have provided their logic for a positive 2024 Q4 FCF in their wholesale forecasts.

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Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

PS - @c2645sg – I see you are still nit-picking other peoples’ posting history, while ignoring your own. Funny how no other poster, or the analysts above, can be trusted, yet no-one has been more spectacularly wrong about AML than you! #DoubleStandards

c2645sg – 13/10/22 – Quote: “Priced for its 8th bankruptcy now.”

#MoreComedyGold

c2645sg – 12/09/24 – Quote - “The more nonsense posted, the more I challenge it. :)”

@c2645sg – What about all the nonsense that you have posted in just the last few weeks? You said AML shareholders will be diluted when Adrian Newey gets shares in AMF1. You claimed you were ‘bang on’ about the private debt placing, when you only ever talked about an equity cash raise (“Cash raise will be under £1 for sure now, probably around 50p depending on how much they need.”).

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c2645sg – 13/09/24 – Quote - “You do keep on forgetting to tell us when you buy”

@c2645sg – Make your mind up, as just a few weeks ago you told us that it was “job done” if no one posted their share buys and you thought this was “lovely”, now you are complaining people don’t??

c2645sg – 05/08/24 –“I am here to stop all your idiot gamblers punting your 'buys' and sharing them on here, ramping without challenge. Job done, nobody dare post an average or any share buys. Lovely :)”

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c2645sg – 13/09/24 – Quote - “@bullieh, are you not answering my questions? Where is your proof to backup your statements?”

@c2645sg – Why do you still maintain these double standards? Do you still hold the AML shares you paid £19 for in Jun.21? If not, when did you post on here that you were selling? Where is your evidence for your May24 claim that “Newey is not interested in Aston purely because of Stroll”?

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c2645sg – 13/09/24 – Quote - “Expecting something different from the same mistakes is idiocy.”

@c2645sg – Idiocy you say? Then why have you kept forecasting annual sales based on prorates? ;-)

2021 Predictions: c2645sg -“Projection this year of 5666 cars sold (based on 9 months figure of 4250).”

2021 Actual = 6,178.

2022 Predictions: c2645sg – Quotes: 06/10/22 “H1 was 2675 sales, and that run rates looks similar in H2 so far. So roughly selling 5300 ish” / 07/10/22 - Quote: “H1 sales were c.2500, therefore full year is 5000” / “AML's run rate of sales at this rate is 5500 per year”

2022 Actual = 6,412.

2023 Predictions: c2645sg – Quotes: 16/05/23 - “Q1 numbers were 1,269, so multiplied by 4 for full year is only 5076” / 27/06/23 “Sales in Q1 were 1200 x 4 = 5000 per year.”

2023 Actual = 6,620

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As always, so much nonsense and so little time to deal with it all. < Roll Eyes >

Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg – 10/09/24 – Quote - “Vorlich likes cherry picking.”

@c2645sg – So, you don’t thing you were cherry picking in this post?

c2645sg – 10/09/24 – “UK AML sales- July 2023: 63 .... July 2024: 32 August 2023: 27 ..... Aug 2024: 18 sales are DOWN compared to 2023”

Because UK AML sales: Aug.23 YTD = 637 vs. Aug.24 YTD = 634

https://www.am-online.com/data/manufacturer-insight

So, the ‘DOWN’ you were SHOUTING about is actually 3 units (0.47%).

Wouldn’t a more balanced reflection be that AML sales are currently pretty static year on year?

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c2645sg – 09/09/24 – “No-one should listen to you, you get it wrong just about every time.”

#MoreIrony

@c2645sg – Your photographic memory is really letting you down these days, as a large number of your 2024 themes/posts were not worth listening to either. How have you already forgotten how much you have got wrong in 2024? 2023 annual sales forecast of 6,160 sales vs. actual sales of 6,620; 8 x 2023 Profit Warnings, but no profit warning issued; Fulsome refinancing means “cash raise or debt for equity swap”, which it didn’t; “No way AML can refinance on better terms” when they could; ‘2024 AGM Resolutions mean Stroll taking AML Private’, but same resolutions in 2021, 2022 & 2023; No ‘cash raise within 4 months’ (before 05/07/24); Equity cash raise (“Cash raise will be under £1 for sure now, probably around 50p”), when it was a private debt placing. Plus, your unwillingness to acknowledge AML won the Nebula court case.

- - - - - - - - - -

Which brings us to the latest round of things you have been wrong about in 2024… Adrian Newey:

c2645sg – 09/09/24 – “Yet all people seem to post is Adrian Newey F1 news. How is he getting shares, more dilution to create free shares for him?”

c2645sg – 08/07/24 – “You do realise AML F1 HQ is in Northamptonshire? Williams F1 HQ is in Oxfordshire. You can't even ramp properly, what an idiot.”

c2645sg – 01/05/24 - “Newey is not interested in Aston purely because of Stroll. Adrian knows Stroll is only going to sell the team when he has made enough money, and isn't interested in working with a part-timer like Lance, no-one wants to work with Lance except daddy.”

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@c2645sg – How did you forget that AMF1 and AML are two separate companies? So, there is no dilution for AML shareholders when Adrian Newey gets shares in AMF1. < Roll Eyes >

Where is your evidence for Newey’s views on Stroll? As here is the evidence, from the man himself, saying that Stroll was the reason he was interested in Aston Martin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0wTgNZlRos

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As always, so much stuff, so little time to deal with it all. ;-)

Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

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