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@Ghini – I’m happy to be corrected, but my understanding is that Rule 9 of the Takeover Code requires a mandatory offer to be made when the 30% controlling interest mark has been reached. The offer price would be the highest price paid by Stroll/Yew Tree/Associates in the 12 months before the 30% point was reached.
Alternatively, Stroll/Yew Tree could issue a ‘No intention to bid statement’ which would stop them making a full bid for the next 6 months following the point 30% was reached, subject to various bits of small print.
Now, if (big IF) the 30% had been reached on 01/12/22, then the highest price Yew Tree paid would have been £12.32 on 16/12/21 and many LTH on here would have been jumping for joy / having a heart attack.
Unfortunately, apart from the RI & Rump, there wasn’t any Yew Tree buys until recently, so the highest price in the last 12 months for any offer would be sub £2.
Part of the mandatory offer rules also allows a “Squeeze-out of the minority”. For this to happen, then Stroll/Yew Tree would need 90% of the remaining shares to accept the offer. The good news (for us) is that EXCLUDES the 30% that they are starting from.
Using rough numbers:
- Stroll/Yew Tree have 28.4% = 198m shares
- They need another 10.9m to reach 209.6m / 30%.
- That leaves 489.1m/70% they don’t control, from a total of 698.7m shares
- 90% of those 489.1m shares must accept the offer (440.2m)
- Which gives an effective veto to anyone with more than 10% of the 70% = 48.9m shares
If you assume (DYOR) that Stroll/Yew Tree would not consider reaching 30% / making a bid without PIF and Mercedes on board, that would still leave Invesco (72.8m shares) and Greely (53m) as the key to allowing a mandatory bid to pass/fail.
More details here:
https://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/PDF/takeover_guide.pdf
Hope that helps.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Son_of_Swiss – My apologies, I’m sticking with the filter/Green Boxes, but is this a real quote?
“I bet Stroll is employing people to ramp on here, makes so much sense…”
So, the logic that ‘makes so much sense’ is that Stroll is paying people to ramp the AML SP, at exactly the same time as he, and his associates, are systematically increasing the percentage of AML that Stroll has full control over, by buying more shares?
Really? {Rolls Eyes}
If we are going to run with idle speculation, then, surely, it would make more sense for Stroll to be de-ramping the SP, so he can increase his control of AML for less money?
Alternatively, I would suggest (DYOR) that the SP rise since the low of 89p on 02/11/22 (after Q3 results) is due to the tens of millions of shares being bought by Stroll/Yew Tree/Bertarelli/Michael de Picciotto/Saint James/etc. since then. (As per multiple RNS).
I can’t be bothered to research it, but perhaps there is a better correlation between the times when AML shorts have increased and the number of #ProjectFear posts that appear on here? {Wink}
Anyway, Christmas is coming and there are things to do…
Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)
@Brewman91 – Details of the original ‘Long-term Incentive Plan awards’ (LTIP) are here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/directorpdmr-shareholding-om28fft8tzldwc6.html
However, I read this afternoon’s RNS slightly differently to @Ghini…
The LTIP was agreed in Jun.22, a month before the PIF placing & RI was announced.
Therefore, the 4:1 RI will have diluted the value of the original LTIP shares.
These were the closing SP from the day before each RNS
10/06/22 - £6.118
19/12/22 - £1.77
Amedeo Felisa
Original LTIP = 323,674 @ £6.118 = £1.98m
Add extra 549,154
Total LTIP = 872,828 @ £1.77 = £1.54m
Doug Lafferty
Original LTIP = 110,974 @ £6.118 = £0.68m
Add extra 188,281
Total LTIP = 299,255 @ £1.77 = £0.53m
So, even with the extra shares, the LTIP starting point today is worth less than in Jun.22 (around 78%).
DYOR on what that may, or may not, say about where these two think the SP will end up.
@Ghini - Happy to be corrected if I’ve got the wrong end of the stick.
Cheers, Paul. :)
Son_of_Swiss – Quote:
“It’s complete crap claiming that Mercedes are selling all their AML shares from the usual source”
- - - - - - - - - -
@Son_of_Swiss – Well, Christmas is the usually a time for lots of repeats on TV…
So, are any of these new posts similar to the de-ramping Mercedes stuff posted earlier this year?
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=7030ADC9-ED1C-463C-8222-EC9802C5E340
@Son_of_Swiss - In Oct22 we were told a 200,000 sale was HUGE in context.
Since then, Stroll & associates have made buys of over 64,000,000 shares.
If a 200k sell was worth a warning, why isn't 64m buys a good thing?
Anyway, I've got to go, have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)
Ghini – Quote – “…Why did he not buy sooner after RI or at lows? Ok maybe to wait and see how low it would go but even the last two or three weeks there have been lower days he could have bought..? It can make a big difference..”
- - - - - - - - - -
@Ghini – Compared to their overall average, the impact of the 4:1 RI makes the SP since then ‘noise’.
Again, this is in the context of the 6.4 Michael de Picciotto/Saint James shares covered by RNS:
- After the RI + Rump – Total holding = 5.8m+ shares, with an Avg. of £2.44.
- After next 217k shares in the 90-96p range – Total = 6m shares with an Avg. of £2.38.
- After next 432k shares in 111-141p range – Total = 6.4m shares with an Avg. of £2.30.
Therefore, as long as the SP is lower than their current average, it will still ‘improve’ their position.
( Obviously, buying more at the lowest price would improve it further, but no one is perfect. {Wink} )
It is worth remembering the value, on paper, of their holding when the RI was first announced.
At close of play on 02/09/22, the SP was 480p and their 2020 & 2021 AML shares were down £5.6m!
In the context of a HUGE ‘paper loss’, adding another £5.1m to cover the RI + Rump was significant.
Clearly, they could be throwing good money after bad and should have cut their losses (DYOR).
But, I, and I’m sure many others on here, hope their commitment to AML’s future pays off.
Cheers, Paul. :)
As always, DYOR, the following is just my observations…
AML gave a TERP of £1.78 and this is the closest the SP has been to that since the RI in September.
Which, for me at least, is a reminder of what a ‘good’ AML SP will look like these days.
As PIF are already ‘up’ on their £192m AML investment, as they have an average of just £1.48!
(Placing + RI + Rump)
Which leads me to Michael de Picciotto/Saint James, who, like Stoll, increased their AML holding.
As he is often referenced for being a director/insider who bought AML at over £18 in 2021.
There is a list of Director deals here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/DirectorsDeals.asp?shareprice=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda
But there appears to be something wrong with the running totals in the list.
I can find 18 x RNS to cover 92% of the 6.9m shares listed, leaving 0.5m shares unaccounted for.
- 2020 – 262,039 shares - Avg. = £10.00 (post 20:1 consolidation, 50p in ‘old money’)
- 2021 – 380,715 shares – Avg. = £16.06 (early 2021 £18 deals offset by later 2021 £12 ones)
- 2022 – 5,843,787 shares – Avg. = £1.06 (including 4.8m RI @ £1.03 and some sub £1 deals)
Total of 6,486,541 shares, at a cost of £14,919,497, equals an average of £2.30.
Ignoring the 0.5m MIA, at £1.73, Michael de Picciotto’s 6.4m shares are still ‘down’ £3.7m (ish).
However, the point is the AML SP doesn’t need to be near £18 to break even on those 6.4m shares.
As “just” a 57p rise (around 33%) from Friday’s close of £1.73 would do it (did I mention DYOR?).
Whilst SP has risen 84p/94% since the Nov.22 low of 89p, who knows when/if that might happen.
As, unfortunately, I think the AML SP rollercoaster may be with us for a while longer. {Roll Eyes}
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday. Cheers, Paul. :)
I’m still resisting any temptation to un-filter @Troll.
But I am mildly curious to know what word was used to describe the 4m buys in today's RNS.
27/10/22 - Quote: “huge is in context, light volume in AML these days, 200k sell was huge.”
Since that was written, Stroll & associates have increased their stake from 19% to over 27%.
(Which is over 61 million shares bought.)
What is the context of these 61m buys, when a 200k sell was large enough to mention?
Anyway, I’ve got to go, so catch up later.
@Son_of_Swiss – As @Ghini has already said, the legal action itself is real.
(As confirmed by AML via a Jun.21 RNS and the Sep.22 RI Prospectus.)
However, AML included the following in an email to me back in Apr.22:
“… the company will at all times remain fully compliant with all disclosure obligations to which it is subject.”
Therefore, if there was any real news, worthy of reporting, AML would be required to announce it.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – My apologies, I thought you meant Stroll taking it private with his own money.
But just to pick up on some of your thoughts while I’m here…
Shareholder pressure – So far, unhappy shareholders haven’t translated into any real pressure.
As Stroll has all the votes he needs and all his plans have passed with clear majorities.
It is a similar story regarding negative press, as I only remember one RNS response to ‘news’.
RI – I agree that we don’t really know what was said to the big players before the RI.
However, it wasn’t just their support on paper, as they also coughed up tens of millions in cash too.
Which gives the impression that they must think it will be worth it in the end (whatever that is).
Public >> Private >> Public again – I can’t see this after the mess AML got into after the original IPO.
Would Stroll make more money selling out once vs. extra costs to go private & then go public again?
As I said before, I would like to know what AML’s master plan with PIF is.
PIF certainly have enough cash to replace the existing bonds at a better rate, but will they?
As @TinyPie2 said yesterday… “Only time will tell.”
As always, DYOR.
Have a good weekend, Paul. :)
@Son_of_Swiss & @advocate1973 – It is now approaching a month since I filtered @Troll#1.
(Although I’d can’t even remember when I first filtered @ClothTroll.)
I can see who is posting on ‘Thread View’, but their content is blocked in ‘Message View’.
As I’ve said before, not replying/correcting isn’t the same as agreeing, so let them huff & puff.
(The simple fact is I can’t see what they are posting, so it is really water off a duck’s back.)
I’ve got more than enough old quotes from previous posts should I ever need them.
E.g. On 27/10/22, @Troll doubled down on their claim that a “200k sell was huge”.
I believe drawing attention to a 200k sale (from a total of 698m shares) is de-ramping via #ProjectFear.
If @Troll was genuine, they must have sung from the rafters about 58m buys by Stroll/Yew Tree.
Is that what I have been missing? ;-)
Or perhaps they did find some honour and settled their outstanding debts to charity?
(Total owed = £1,500 to Great Ormond Street Hospital and £1,000 to DEC Ukraine fund.)
Something tells me that I didn’t miss that either.
Have a good weekend, Paul. :)
@Ghini – I can’t think of any reason why Stroll would want to take this private. (DYOR)
- Hold a bigger share? – Yes
- Block Greely? – Yes
- Believe he is about to “unlock long-term shareholder value creation”? – Yes ;-)
But I’ve said before that Rolls, Bentley, Lamborghini, Maserati & Bugatti all have big brothers.
And with the cost of developing new models and transitioning to the new EV world, it makes sense.
Following AML’s technology agreement with Mercedes it did seem like a good strategic fit.
(With Mercedes gaining a historic luxury car brand like BMW, VW & Stellantis before them.)
Clearly, Tobias Moers had a foot in both camps, which also seemed to fit with a longer-term plan.
Since those early days, Moers has gone, but Mercedes have stuck around and committed to the RI.
Mercedes also supported PIF getting on board, which would be odd if PIF wanted full control.
Which I guess is a long-winded way of saying I have no idea where AML will end up. {Roll Eyes}
However, I’m prepared to hold on a while longer to see what happens.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – Since the RI in September, Stroll/Yew Tree have now bought over 58 million extra shares.
(I’ve included their 4.8m RI ‘rump’ buys, as I don’t follow your previous logic that this was “expected”.)
This brings the percentage held by the three main AML ‘insiders’ (Stroll, PIF & Mercedes) up to 54%.
There are also other shares that Stroll has control/influence over: Lord Bamford; directors, etc.
This leaves the two main ‘outsiders’ (Invesco & Greely) with 18%, although Invesco did support the RI.
As for motives, I’m still waiting to see what the strategy is regarding AML’s “new anchor investor” PIF.
PIF had their two non-executive directors appointed on 01/11/22, but no other news since.
(Although PIF are now launching Ceer, for EV cars in Saudi using BMW tech.)
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Son_of_Swiss – No worries, I was only wondering if one of the green boxes had a new link in it.
@Ghini – The original AML notification included “with the support of a group of its customers”.
So, it stands to reason that another group of St.Gallen customers didn’t support the legal action.
Which allows the media to quote people from which ever side of the fence suits their angle.
When this first started, I always thought this would end up in a settlement of some kind.
And the longer it goes on, the less relevant Nebula’s dealership become to AML’s future.
- AML now sell specials via Pebble Beach, Festival of Speed, F1, etc.
- AML are actively targeting customers who are new to the brand.
Anyway, I was supposed to be spending less time on here. { Roll Eyes }
So, I catch up again in a few days, cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – Apologies if any filtered posts have already covered this today…
I wasn't able to find anything online that confirms anything other than the official statements.
22/06/21 – AML – RNS – Original notification
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/commencement-of-legal-proceedings-jkmtr4b4riw34mw.html
- - - - - - - - - -
Around nine months later, there was a post on here that claimed a press release dated 14/03/22 confirmed AML lost a case in Switzerland on 08/03/22.
The only catch was the poster sharing it said you needed to have friends in the press to see it.
(To my knowledge they haven’t posted a link to either the court ruling or an official press release.)
- - - - - - - - - -
14/04/22 – AML - Email response to me following the ‘press release’ posted on LSE Chat.
“Our position on this matter remains unchanged to that published in June 2021 and the company will at all times remain fully compliant with all disclosure obligations to which it is subject.”
- - - - - - - - - -
Six months after the Mar.22 ‘press release’…
AML said “These proceedings remain ongoing” in relation to both of the original Jun.21 cases.
They also confirmed the new counter-claim case at this point.
05/09/22 – AML – Placing & RI Prospectus – Page 214, Section 17
https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/capital-raise-july-2022/prospectus.pdf?rev=a8447604b4024a0a92fdf1816597ae70&hash=AFA2A2F2AB343E7ACCFD6559190C33A5
- - - - - - - - - -
Hope that helps, cheers, Paul. :)
PS
@Son_of_Swiss – I know BusinessF1 magazine was used as a source of the claim AML lost the case.
Whilst Google can find BusinessF1 losing a court case, it doesn’t appear to show AML losing one.
https://www.gov.uk/employment-tribunal-decisions/ms-e-herd-v-business-f1-magazine-ltd-3302912-slash-2021
However, please post a link to the Mar.22 court ruling if a link has now been provided.
TheRiflemans – 15/11/22
Quote: “Can you share the broker downgrade and what target price did they indicate?”
@TheRiflemans – I hope this link works…
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/AML/jefferies-downgrades-aston-martin-says-recapitalisation-risks-remain-7rwij38042owf6e.html
If not, use the "AML Share News” button near the top of this page and it is from 15/11/22 09.10am.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@TinyPie2, @Son_of_Swiss, @Vorlich001, @advocate1973 & @NoahsArk – Thanks all.
I'll try not to go back over old ground going forward, as my posting history more than covers that.
Two weeks away from LSE confirmed that I am no longer even curious about what @Troll posts.
(I unfiltered them after 45 x posts in a single day, back in June, made the chat hard to follow.)
So, I guess I’ll just never know what adjective they used for the recent Stroll/Yew Tree buys.
Especially, in light of this…
27/10/22 - Quote: “huge is in context, light volume in AML these days, 200k sell was huge.”
Because, if a 200k sell was huge, what was total buying of 39m+ within a few weeks of that date?
Surely, over 198 times larger than “huge” must be at least humongous?
Or maybe ginormous?
;-)
Anyway, I’ve got stuff to do, so take care, Paul. :)
Whilst I said I’d take a break from posting on LSE, after my last posts (29th Oct).
I went one step further, switched LSE off and haven’t even had a quick peek on here since.
So, apologies if I appeared to be ignoring any comments/questions from genuine posters.
However, rather than go back over old posts now, I’ll try to restrict my LSE chat still further.
As, two weeks away provided a much better ‘storm in a teacup’ perspective on things.
Clearly, I’ve wasted too much time engaging with @Troll, when I should know better:
- No honour – Makes bets in writing but refuses to pay up (to charity) after losing them.
- Hypocrite – Repeatedly ask other posters about their AML positions, without disclosing their own.
- Double standards – Wants other posters to answer questions but refuses to answer theirs in return.
- Self-praise – Quick to say they called everything right but won’t reply to a post showing they didn’t.
- Shameless – Claims to post facts, but posts Mercedes sell off rumours like a de-ramping “charlatan”.
- Etc.
"If it looks like a Troll, posts like a Troll, and reacts like a Troll, then it probably is a Troll."
Therefore, the filter will stay on this time and not replying/correcting isn’t the same as agreeing.
- - - - - - - - - -
Anyway, the AML SP has been on another rollercoaster ride since I was last here (102 >> 89 >> 158).
There was also some small comfort in the fact Stroll/Yew Tree have continued to build their holding.
(And that large ‘outsiders’ like Invesco & Greely haven’t sold significantly, subject to any RNS delays.)
Thankfully, I don’t need the money I have in AML any time soon, so I’ll continue to wait and see.
Good luck to anyone else in the same boat.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@advocate1973 – As promised…
Disclaimer:
The following is speculation, based on circumstantial evidence, which I obviously can’t prove.
But it looks like, after over two years / 2,500+ posts on AML, c2645sg blew their cover.
Because, on 23/09/22, c2645sg appears to have made a ‘schoolboy error’ on EZJ share chat.
When, eager to chastise EZJ posters, c2645sg forgot to log back into EZJ with their alternative LSE ID.
(Which appears to have covered EZJ and other airline stocks - @Toddjustin – Now banned/deleted.)
Words like “What's your average here Barso?” are very familiar to those of us on AML.
Similarly, “I told you this recession will be worse than anyone feared” follows a regular AML pattern.
But here’s the rub…
There is no record of c2645sg posting any recession warning on EZJ in 2022, or even 2021.
Now, it is possible that an EZJ warning was in a post that was subsequently deleted.
But 3 x EZJ posts in 63 minutes, with zero before (2 years) or since (month+) seems odd to me.
As we certainly all know that, on AML, c2645sg can be a one-person posting tsunami.
(I think their record was 46 x AML posts in a single day - 13/06/22.)
However, I must apologise to everyone else for ‘Feeding the Troll’, when I really should know better.
So, I will take another posting break from LSE for a while and simply filter c2645sg.
Cheers, Paul. :)
PS
Here are the EZJ posts in full:
13:50
“Cretinomics.
UK Interest rates will now be higher than anyone feared.
SONIA rates are now touching 5%.
I told you this recession will be worse than anyone feared.”
14:10
Quote: “Depression succession.
Unfortunately most people forget what it's like when everything contracts.
This market won't stop tanking until just about everyone has thrown in the towel. A long way to go.”
14:53
Quote: “A pessimist is a well read optimist.