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Quote - “The people you mentioned; ie the large shareholders, AML shares worth just a pocket change or a flutter for the fun of it.”
There is a case (rightly or wrongly) for saying Stroll is having a flutter on AML with pocket change.
But there is no way Mercedes have just taken £56m from Petty Cash for some ‘fun’ with AML. ;-)
Mercedes, Invesco and PIF will all have required some form of approval for their AML investments.
- - - - - - - - - -
Quote - “Gone bankrupt 7 times before! Each with “big players" invested.”
I’m not sure you are comparing ‘like with like’.
As the original AML ‘big players’ from the 1920s & 30s, had names like Count Louis, Lady Charnwood & Sir Arthur Sutherland, which are hardly Mercedes in 2022. ;-)
- - - - - - - - - -
Having said that, I wonder what both Invesco’s AML average and their thought/approval process is.
Especially as PIF’s total investment of £174m (Placing + RI) will have an average of just £1.49!!
Which would put PIF up £33m (on paper) if AML’s forecast TERP of £1.78 was achieved.
Nice work if you can get it.
Obviously, DYOR on what you think the actual TERP will end up at.
Cheers, Paul. :)
Quote – “So in the example of EG68 a MC of £1.69bn would mean a rise of another 450M to reach break even, until then he is down. Correct?”
@Ghini – Assuming AML’s TERP valuation is correct, then yes, MC needs to increase by £450m.
Obviously, the TERP starting point could be higher or lower, but the breakeven would still be £1.69bn.
(Where gains made on the RI shares would offset the losses on the original shares.)
@EG68 - Sorry, got a meeting starting at 1pm.
Unfortunately, I'm still working out the options myself and couldn't/wouldn't offer advice.
I think a lot of PIs will have to make similar calls based on the availability of 'spare' cash for the RI.
Good luck!
@EG68 – AML have listed the TERP as £1.78 based on the Friday’s close.
Which puts your £1.67 calculation in the right ball park.
So, to break even on your £121.2k costs, AML SP needs to increase post RI to just over £2.42.
(50,000 shares x £2.424 = £121,200)
AML’s TERP of £1.78 x 698m shares = Market Capitalisation of £1.24bn post RI (& PIF placing).
Therefore, your breakeven point requires AML’s MC to increase to £1.69bn+ (698m shares x £2.42+).
As always, DYOR as to whether you think those numbers will be achieved.
Hope that helps, cheers, Paul. :)
@Richard365054 – Unfortunately, I’m not paid to post and have admitted this is a waste of my time.
Although, it’s quite amusing to see @c2645sg going to such lengths to change the subject (again). ;-)
However, my apologies for continuing, what @Leonidas1 called, the whole ‘Punch and Judy’ thing.
Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg – 03/09/22 – Quote:
“What's your average then Paul?”
@c2645sg – Nice try. ;-)
But why would I tell you my average?
As your standard reply to me, or anyone else, asking about your AML holding/average is…
c2645sg – 26/11/21
Quote: “My shareholding is none of your business AML007”
Do you really believe there is one rule for you and a different rule for the rest of us?
Anyway, you have changed the subject (again).
The question was about your AML RI predictions and what were the most likely outcomes:
- An extra 5bn RI shares?
- An RI price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31?
- Or both/neither/something else?
Thankfully, there shouldn’t be long to wait for the details, as the AML circular stated:
“The exact number of New Shares to be issued pursuant to the Rights Issue will be set out in the Prospectus which is expected to be published on or around 5 September 2022”
So, until then, have a nice Sunday, cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg – You really do take things out of context to change the subject, don’t you? {Roll Eyes}
In fact, the poster doth protest about Trolling too much, methinks. ;-)
Your post about dollar exchange rate and interest rates was clearly linked to the RI cash raise.
As you included this section in the middle of it...
c2645sq – Quote:
“If you think the forthcoming fund raise would see them through until the bond debt matures in 2024, then you might need to rethink.”
So, pointing out there is no impact on the cash requirement was relevant to your fund raise statement.
Was me writing “Obviously, the P&L charge due to FX changes is a difference story!” not clear enough?
Now I have provided your requested rebuttal…
Perhaps you can clear up your AML RI predictions for us?
- Is it an extra 5bn shares?
- Or an RI price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31?
- Or both/neither/something else?
Have a good weekend, Paul. :)
PS
Quote - “Your average buy price for AML is £15 Paul”
[Panto]
“Oh no it isn’t!”
[/Panto]
c2645sg – 01/09/22 - Quote:
“Pound v Dollar at last results on July 29th was 1.22
Today it is at 1.16, a 5% drop, so you can imagine what this has done to the interest payments.”
@c2645sg – Exchange rate drop from Q1 ($1.32) to H1 ($1.21) made no difference to interest cash.
(Obviously, the P&L charge due to FX changes is a difference story!)
AML 2022 interest costs (cash):
Original guidance - c.£125m @ £1 : $1.35
Q1 2022 Update - c.£130m @ £1 : $1.32
H1 2022 Update - c.£130m @ £1 : $1.21
Which suggests that AML have fixed their 2022 interest dollar requirements @ £130m cash.
- - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – 01/09/22 - Quote:
“5 billions (for the pedant) of new shares could be created and announced on Monday.”
@c2645sg – But is that likely, especially given your predicted RI price of £2.45 from 04/08/22?
As 5bn shares at £2.45 would raise £12bn, which is over 20x the £575m AML are looking for.
Alternatively, 5bn shares could raise ‘just’ £575m, if they were £0.12 each.
(An RI price discount of over 99% against yesterday’s close of £4.49, which is also unlikely.)
So, why talk of the maximum number of shares AML “could” issue, as though it might happen?
- - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – 30/08/22 - Quote:
“Can anyone imagine how difficult it will be to rollover the huge AML bond debt in 2024 now?”
@c2645sg – Is that before, or after, PIF’s investment and corresponding seat on the AML board?
As it is possible to imagine PIF providing long term/bond finance to AML in 2024 (DYOR).
Anyway, I’m already late for my morning run, cheers, Paul. :)
PS
[Pedant On]
It is billions when you don’t specify a number, e.g., “maybe even billions”.
But billion if you do, e.g., ‘5 billion new shares’ or ‘£1.5 billion’.
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/billion
[/Pedant Off]
{Wink}
@badflaw - I could be wrong, but I think the cut off was at yesterday's close and the announcement is after close today.
https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/FTSE_FAQ_Document_UK_2022.pdf
Sorry, got to go, cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg – Thank you for confirming what a complete waste of my time this is. {Roll Eyes}
“What’s the point of arguing with someone who thinks a billion starts at 2,000,000,000”
As clearly there is no point in trying to debate with someone who thinks “billions” is singular.
You wrote “maybe even billions” and I pointed out that “billions” must be a minimum of 2bn.
#Fact
#ShouldHaveGoneToSpecSavers
- - - - - - - - - -
“The lower the SP falls, the bigger the dilution required, the more shares they need to create.”
Agreed, no one is disputing this, the question was how many RI shares would be needed?
How low would the AML SP need to be for the RI to issue “maybe even billions” of extra shares?
(Compared to your prediction of double earlier this month.)
#YourWordsNotMine
- - - - - - - - - -
“Hence why no-one should listen to a single word you say.”
Whereas, everyone should listen to everything you say?
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=7030ADC9-ED1C-463C-8222-EC9802C5E340
Or are you still standing by your recent Mercedes speculation as the truth/facts?
- - - - - - - - - -
Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg – 28/08/22 - Quote:
“Invesco you say?
The creditors own high debt companies, such as AML and CINE.
Equity holders will get wiped out and creditors will take over.”
c2645sg – 28/08/22 - Quote:
“Invesco have been acquiring AML shares.
They know what's coming. and so do you.”
- - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – You appear to be mixing up AML’s bond holders with their equity holders.
Your FT quote suggests Invesco would get control of CINE as a secured lender.
But in AML, Invesco are “just” another ‘non-insider’ equity holder.
So, if “equity holders will get wiped out” …
Why are Invesco potentially acquiring an extra £60m+ worth of AML shares via the RI?
What exactly do Invesco know is coming?
- - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – 04/08/22 - Quote:
“Therefore double the number of shares, rights issue price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31.”
c2645sg – 28/08/22 - Quote:
“Hundreds of millions of new shares, maybe even billions, and people selling them instantly after the RI. If you think the SP will rise on the back of that, then it's top up time. Crack on!”
- - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – Has your estimate for the number of RI shares really gone from 139m to 2,000m?
“Double” = 116m today + 23m PIF = 139m.
“Billions” = A minimum of 2,000,000,000.
- - - - - - - - - -
Anyway, there is the rest of the Bank Holiday to enjoy.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg - “U OK hun?”
It is alright if you really don’t want to answer the question, no need to change the subject.
Obviously, it was my mistake for even attempting to engage with the stuff you post on here.
So, I’ll stop doing that again for a while and instead I’ll just leave you with this…
c2645sg – 18/08/22 - Quote: “charlatan.”
[The Princess Bride]
“You keep using that word.
I do not think it means what you think it means.”
[/Inigo Montoya]
Unless you include yourself in that definition for your baseless Mercedes sell off de-ramping? ;-)
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=7030ADC9-ED1C-463C-8222-EC9802C5E340
Have a nice day. Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg – 23/08/22 - Quote:
“Yup.
If no-one takes up the rights issue, AML are insolvent.”
- - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – Oh come on, what has happened to all your AML research?
AML’s RI target is £575m.
Yew Tree, Mercedes and PIF have committed to £257m.
(At £105m, £56m & £96m respectively.)
And the balance of £318m is underwritten.
(Even ignoring the potential £60m from Invesco.)
Therefore, how is it even possible for “no one” to take up the RI and AML to become insolvent?
(With Stroll controlling enough votes at the General Meeting.)
- - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – You also appear to be ignoring the whole point of the debate around Invesco.
These are just two recent examples of your consistent view that AML is a basket case.
20/08/22 - Quote:
“AML shares in circulation will more or less double, current holders will be diluted by the same amount, and the cash raised will only see the company through the next 12 months.”
19/08/22 - Quote:
“Profit warning in 2022 and 2023 for sure.
As well as 2 dilutions for shareholders.”
And this is your forecast for how the RI will unfold.
04/08/22 - Quote:
“Therefore double the number of shares, rights issue price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31.”
- - - - - - - - - -
Here is a reminder of the options Invesco have today:
- Sell
- Hold
- Invest an extra £60m in the RI
- Some combination of the above
Which brings us back to @Kong1’s original question, why put more money into AML at this time?
As, you now appear to be saying that Invesco putting in an extra £60m+ is their best/only option.
What is your logic behind that view?
Given the fact that Invesco do not need to put £60m in themselves to avoid AML going bust?
(As that has already been taken care of in the short term by the RI underwriters.)
Anyway, this reminds me what a waste of time long replies are on here.
Goodnight, Paul. :)
@Ghini – Apologies, just time for a quick reply now, but agree that the Vanquish isn’t being pushed.
AML 2022 H2
https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/results-centre/2022---results-centre/h1-2022/aston-martin-lagonda-h1-results-2022---presentation.pdf?rev=d1ab3725b138468ba9c061b53c20abff
Whilst Slide 28 shows 3 x mid-engine models, Slide 29 doesn’t show the "AM9" on the timeline.
c2645sg – Quote:
“Of course they are all desperate to put more money into AML
If they don't, AML is insolvent and they get NOTHING back.”
@c2645sg - Really?
Invesco, who are not an AML ‘insider’, have several options:
- Sell now and get ‘something’ back.
- Keep their existing investment and accept the PIF + RI dilution.
- Take up their RI allocation and increase their investment in AML by £60m.
Note - I assume/hope that a further £60m investment would require some sort of internal approval.
Which I think is the point @Kong1 was making.
If anything, he was in agreement with your statement from the other day….
c2645sg – Quote:
“Hence why most analysts are saying this fund raise will not be the last.
Dilution in September, and then some more in 12-18 months”
So, I believe @Kong1’s question was why put money in now, if you will need to put more in later.
(Your view / DYOR)
Stroll already has enough votes in hand to pass the resolutions, so will AML become insolvent?
If Invesco do not take up their RI options, will they remain unsold, or will PIF/A.N.Other take them?
With no sign of an AML dividend, what is Invesco’s strategy for making a return on their investment?
- - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – Quote:
“AML_007, what is your guess for the RI price?”
@c2645sg – I’ve already gone through my RI calculations with you.
Based on AML’s numbers, & what others have signed up for, AML want £4.11 per share.
Therefore, the final RI price/share ratio doesn’t really make any difference to me.
As my take up of the RI will be based on what I can afford, not what the RI price is.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Kong1 – “Whos going to put the money in when if you look back, its not going to be enough”
- - - - - - - - - -
The 15/07/22 RNS confirmed Yew Tree, Mercedes & PIF would all take their full RI allocation.
At that point, I did wonder what Invesco would be doing with their 14.6m+ shares.
Today’s RNS appears to suggest that Invesco will be putting in an extra £60m+ via the RI.
RNS – 22/08/22 – Quote:
“Immediately following Admission of the New Shares, the Yew Tree Consortium, MBAG, PIF and Invesco Limited are each expected to beneficially own a significant percentage of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.”
Which ties back to this statement from the 2022 H1 update.
Stroll – 29/07/22 – Quote:
“Having spoken to a number of our largest shareholders over the last two weeks, it is clear there is extremely strong support for the raise.”
- - - - - - - - - -
Today’s RNS also confirms all AML directors will also take up 100% of their RI options.
(Which is another £4m+ from Michael de Picciotto.)
- - - - - - - - - -
As always, DYOR.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – Quote: “New generation sports and GT cars will be 2024.”
RNS – Quote:
“This will be followed with a full range of new next-generation GT/Sports cars starting in 2023, which will comprise the three core GT/Sports cars, each of which will be available as a coupe and volante/roadster.”
- - - - - - - - - -
@Ghini – Quote: “Reading the circular confirmed Vanquish mid engine is no longer in the plan.”
A polite question... Where does it confirm that?
The 2022 H1 update listed two “Mid-engine super-cars”, the Valhalla and the AM9 (aka Vanquish).
I read today’s RNS as including the Valhalla, not specifically excluding Vanquish.
“Over the coming years, the Company…will focus on:
- the development of the Group’s high margin mid-engine vehicles, including the Valhalla
special edition”
@Ringers – “do you understand how they arrive at the calculation of a 16.67% dilution?”
AML shares today = 116,459,513
Extra PIF shares = 23,291,902
Total shares after PIF, but before RI = 139,751,415
Original 166m shares as a % of post PIF total of 139m = 83.3%
Therefore, original holding has been diluted by 100% - 83.3% = 16.7%
It seems the swearing filter doesn't like the first part of the c-o-c-k-p-i-t!
https://media.astonmartin.com/