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c2645sg – 23/08/22 - Quote:
“Yup.
If no-one takes up the rights issue, AML are insolvent.”
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@c2645sg – Oh come on, what has happened to all your AML research?
AML’s RI target is £575m.
Yew Tree, Mercedes and PIF have committed to £257m.
(At £105m, £56m & £96m respectively.)
And the balance of £318m is underwritten.
(Even ignoring the potential £60m from Invesco.)
Therefore, how is it even possible for “no one” to take up the RI and AML to become insolvent?
(With Stroll controlling enough votes at the General Meeting.)
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@c2645sg – You also appear to be ignoring the whole point of the debate around Invesco.
These are just two recent examples of your consistent view that AML is a basket case.
20/08/22 - Quote:
“AML shares in circulation will more or less double, current holders will be diluted by the same amount, and the cash raised will only see the company through the next 12 months.”
19/08/22 - Quote:
“Profit warning in 2022 and 2023 for sure.
As well as 2 dilutions for shareholders.”
And this is your forecast for how the RI will unfold.
04/08/22 - Quote:
“Therefore double the number of shares, rights issue price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31.”
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Here is a reminder of the options Invesco have today:
- Sell
- Hold
- Invest an extra £60m in the RI
- Some combination of the above
Which brings us back to @Kong1’s original question, why put more money into AML at this time?
As, you now appear to be saying that Invesco putting in an extra £60m+ is their best/only option.
What is your logic behind that view?
Given the fact that Invesco do not need to put £60m in themselves to avoid AML going bust?
(As that has already been taken care of in the short term by the RI underwriters.)
Anyway, this reminds me what a waste of time long replies are on here.
Goodnight, Paul. :)
@Ghini – Apologies, just time for a quick reply now, but agree that the Vanquish isn’t being pushed.
AML 2022 H2
https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/results-centre/2022---results-centre/h1-2022/aston-martin-lagonda-h1-results-2022---presentation.pdf?rev=d1ab3725b138468ba9c061b53c20abff
Whilst Slide 28 shows 3 x mid-engine models, Slide 29 doesn’t show the "AM9" on the timeline.
c2645sg – Quote:
“Of course they are all desperate to put more money into AML
If they don't, AML is insolvent and they get NOTHING back.”
@c2645sg - Really?
Invesco, who are not an AML ‘insider’, have several options:
- Sell now and get ‘something’ back.
- Keep their existing investment and accept the PIF + RI dilution.
- Take up their RI allocation and increase their investment in AML by £60m.
Note - I assume/hope that a further £60m investment would require some sort of internal approval.
Which I think is the point @Kong1 was making.
If anything, he was in agreement with your statement from the other day….
c2645sg – Quote:
“Hence why most analysts are saying this fund raise will not be the last.
Dilution in September, and then some more in 12-18 months”
So, I believe @Kong1’s question was why put money in now, if you will need to put more in later.
(Your view / DYOR)
Stroll already has enough votes in hand to pass the resolutions, so will AML become insolvent?
If Invesco do not take up their RI options, will they remain unsold, or will PIF/A.N.Other take them?
With no sign of an AML dividend, what is Invesco’s strategy for making a return on their investment?
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c2645sg – Quote:
“AML_007, what is your guess for the RI price?”
@c2645sg – I’ve already gone through my RI calculations with you.
Based on AML’s numbers, & what others have signed up for, AML want £4.11 per share.
Therefore, the final RI price/share ratio doesn’t really make any difference to me.
As my take up of the RI will be based on what I can afford, not what the RI price is.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Kong1 – “Whos going to put the money in when if you look back, its not going to be enough”
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The 15/07/22 RNS confirmed Yew Tree, Mercedes & PIF would all take their full RI allocation.
At that point, I did wonder what Invesco would be doing with their 14.6m+ shares.
Today’s RNS appears to suggest that Invesco will be putting in an extra £60m+ via the RI.
RNS – 22/08/22 – Quote:
“Immediately following Admission of the New Shares, the Yew Tree Consortium, MBAG, PIF and Invesco Limited are each expected to beneficially own a significant percentage of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.”
Which ties back to this statement from the 2022 H1 update.
Stroll – 29/07/22 – Quote:
“Having spoken to a number of our largest shareholders over the last two weeks, it is clear there is extremely strong support for the raise.”
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Today’s RNS also confirms all AML directors will also take up 100% of their RI options.
(Which is another £4m+ from Michael de Picciotto.)
- - - - - - - - - -
As always, DYOR.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Ghini – Quote: “New generation sports and GT cars will be 2024.”
RNS – Quote:
“This will be followed with a full range of new next-generation GT/Sports cars starting in 2023, which will comprise the three core GT/Sports cars, each of which will be available as a coupe and volante/roadster.”
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@Ghini – Quote: “Reading the circular confirmed Vanquish mid engine is no longer in the plan.”
A polite question... Where does it confirm that?
The 2022 H1 update listed two “Mid-engine super-cars”, the Valhalla and the AM9 (aka Vanquish).
I read today’s RNS as including the Valhalla, not specifically excluding Vanquish.
“Over the coming years, the Company…will focus on:
- the development of the Group’s high margin mid-engine vehicles, including the Valhalla
special edition”
@Ringers – “do you understand how they arrive at the calculation of a 16.67% dilution?”
AML shares today = 116,459,513
Extra PIF shares = 23,291,902
Total shares after PIF, but before RI = 139,751,415
Original 166m shares as a % of post PIF total of 139m = 83.3%
Therefore, original holding has been diluted by 100% - 83.3% = 16.7%
It seems the swearing filter doesn't like the first part of the c-o-c-k-p-i-t!
https://media.astonmartin.com/
The 'Q' car has been revealed, a DBR22.
https://media.astonmartin.com/introducing-the-dbr22-celebrating-a-decade-of-exclusivity-and-a-lifetime-of-thrilling-open-****pit-sportscars/
Kong1 – 30/07/22
Quote - “How can this be reversed that’s the question I’d like to know.”
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@Kong1 – I wish I could give you an answer, but I have that same ‘nagging’ question myself.
As others have said, the PIF investment and RI just doesn’t seem to be enough for the long term.
It ‘should’ (DYOR) be enough to keep the wolves from the door in the short term.
(As Stroll has more than enough votes to carry any AML motion though.)
So, the question I’d like to know is what long-term future do PIF and Mercedes think AML have?
Why would they support AML now, if AML is simply kicking fundamental issues down the road?
Maybe, the RI prospectus will shed some light on this, or maybe it won’t, time will tell.
Unfortunately, it is now practically impossible to have any kind of sensible debate on here.
I certainly haven’t got the time to counter someone who can make 46 posts in a single day (13/06/22).
So, the two long posts I’ve just made this morning will be my last on here for a while.
Again, to be clear, I am not trying to defend/ramp the AML SP, the fall from £21 to £4 is grim.
But with so many real facts to work with, why add negative spin, or simply make stuff up?
Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg - 28/07/22
Quote: “If AML go bust, Merc don't get the money they are owed.”
@c2645sg – That is significantly different from your previous view.
Where you said Mercedes would get all of AML for free if it went bust.
c2645sg - 24/05/22
“Why would Merc pay £2 when they can get it for nothing?”
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Actually, you posted a LOT of Mercedes speculation recently…
c2645sg - 24/05/22
“Merc's tie-in is only 365 days from their free shares hitting the market, which was late 2020. I wonder if they are selling now?”
10/06/22
“There has been a huge seller every afternoon for weeks now.
Another 35,000 shares ditched.
I wonder if it's Merc, and the next thing they do is rip up the deal.”
13/06/22
“It certainly looks as though Mercedes are selling up, and if that's true then just think about how screwed AML is. NO engine supplier!”
16/06/22
“The danger is Moers has gone in conjunction with Mercedes, which could mean Merc have seen bankruptcy approaching and are the sellers?”
01/07/22
“Maybe Invesco have made a deal with Merc to oust Stroll.”
01/07/22
“Mercedes are in control here, always have been, they can veto ANYONE buying in to save their own interest.”
04/07/22
“Merc will veto any takeover and pick up the pieces in administration.”
- - - - - - - - - -
Reality:
- Mercedes are NOT selling their AML shares
- Mercedes are putting £56m into AML in 2022
- Mercedes support the arrival of PIF as a major shareholder who will dilute their holding
- Mercedes are pushing back their timeline for getting more AML shares (or AML shares + cash)
RNS - 15/07/22
“Mercedes-Benz AG which owns approximately 11.7% of the issued share capital of the Company as at the date of this announcement and which is expected to own approximately 9.7% following the proposed Placing has irrevocably agreed to: (a) vote in favour of the Capital Raise at the General Meeting; and (b) take up in full its entitlement to shares to be issued in the Rights Issue for a total equity investment of £56.0 million. The Company continues to enjoy a long-term strategic relationship with MBAG.”
AML H2 2022 – 29/07/22
“Amendment to Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Mercedes-Benz AG extends timeframe for tranche 2 share issuance into 2024”
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c2645sg – 13/06/22
“Pure desperation when you post takeover rumours.”
– In which case, what do you call posting Mercedes sell off rumours?
(Including claims of no technology agreement, no engine, vetoes, bankruptcy.)
c2645sg – 06/07/22
“I am here to counter the ramping lies that are spouted”
- In which case, am I here to counter the de-ramping Mercedes lies you spouted?
@c2645sg – You like cherry picking quotes, so let’s put some of yours to the test…
c2645sg – Quotes:
15/06/22
– “If you had listened and sold at the top, you would not be poor.”
– “The share price is under a quarter of what it was, and I called it all the way.
23/06/22
- “Imagine filtering the one person who has called it right from £22 to £5.”
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- How does your Dec21 post count as calling it right to £5?
c2645sg – 17/12/21
“We should all put limit orders in for £11.25 and £10.75.
Who's game? If enough people did it, we'd pretty much secure that price.”
- If you were expecting £5 in 2022, why encourage buys at £10/£11 in 2021?
c2645sg – 24/01/22
“Where were you a year ago when I was calling £12 when we were at £19.”
- In Jan21 (“a year ago”) you were calling £12 as the bottom of a rising SP, not a drop target.
c2645sg – 13/01/21
“Agreed GT4, £12.40 is now the absolute bottom, barring truly exceptional circumstances.
£16 support is borderline, £14 looks pretty solid.”
- As, two days later, you raised your bottom for a rising SP from £12 to £14.
c2645sg – 15/01/21
“Support seems to be holding at £16, I'd say the bottom could be as low as £14, and I don't think we'll ever seen anything under £12.40 again as that what Merc got their 20% at.”
- If you were calling £12 in Jan21, why buy at £19/£22 in Jun21?
c2645sg – 11/06/21
“Even I topped up over £22”
c2645sg – 11/06/21
“Nice, hit my limit order of 1910.
Keeping some in reserve in case it goes lower.”
- You also didn’t listen to your Nov21 advice…
c2645sg – 04/11/21
“This jump is the best chance to get out now before the shizzle hits the fan.”
- As you were “unhappy” two weeks later…
c2645sg – 18/11/21
“I am an unhappy shareholder. The share price has dropped from £23 to £16 this year”
- Why complain about a drop in share price to £16 in Nov21, if you had predicted £12 in Jan21?
- Also, if you are an unhappy shareholder in Nov.21, you certainly hadn’t “sold at the top” had you?
Note - Nothing I’ve posted on here will explain away the inconsistencies in your posts above.
Cheers, Paul. :)
PS
And remember when you first appeared in Jul20 and said you knew AML’s market direction?
Quotes from @c2645sg on 03/07/20:
“Bought in the 30s, banking my profit”
“I never fight momentum/market direction”
“Do you honestly think the share price will be higher than the current 46p come results?”
- Ignoring the 20:1 consolidation, the SP went significantly higher than 46p, to over £1.13.
c2645sg – 29/07/22
Quote - “Remember Stroll saying 300 DBXs just missed the boat to China in Q1?
Where are they, still in Dover waiting to ship?
DBX sales reduced from 1595 to 1083.”
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@c2645sg – What Stroll actually said during the 2022 Q1 update was:
“Firstly, in the first quarter we had a boat of another couple hundred going to China that would have made the numbers roughly/exactly the same as the previous year.”
AML total wholesales:
Q1 2021 – 1,353
Q1 2022 – 1,168
2022 Q1 shortfall = 185
Which is close enough to the ‘couple hundred’ Stroll talked about to make the numbers the same.
2022 wholesales APAC:
- Q1 = 272
- H1 = 854
Therefore, Q2 2022 APAC = 582
Can you prove those 582 APAC sales in Q2 didn’t include Stroll’s 185/200 DBXs on the boat in Q1?
After all, you are the one calling Stroll a liar.
(“The man is unable to be truthful to shareholders”.)
How many China’ lock down stories/links have you have posted in the last few months?
Which actually make it more likely the APAC Q2 figures were boosted by the ‘late’ Q1 vehicles.
Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg – 28/07/22 – Quote:
“The point the author is making is this: It's worth Merc putting £56m into AML's rights issue, as AML owe Merc a hell of a lot more than £56m. If AML go bust, Merc don't get the money they are owed.”
@c2645sg – In that case, why didn’t the author actually write that?
They wrote “debt to equity conversion”, NOT bailing the company out to ensure they get paid.
As, by definition, “debt to equity” does not involve cash changing hands.
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c2645sg – 28/07/22 – Quote:
“So Merc taking part in the placing means:
1- Their holding is not diluted”
@c2645sg – Again, by definition, Mercedes’ AML holding is being diluted by the PIF shares.
From 11.7% today, to approximately 9.7% following the PIF placement. (As per the RNS.)
Therefore, their £56m equity investment is to prevent their holding being diluted further after the RI.
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I’ll come back to your previous AML going bust theories another day.
Cheers, Paul. :)
badflaw – 27/06/22 – Quote: “if you disagree with the data and interpretation of such data. please supply a reasoned counter argument”
@badflaw – Apologies, I’ve just got time for a quick reply now…
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Karenable Quote - “It’s also quite interesting that Mercedes has committed to put cash into AML for the 1st time in the Stroll era. I suspect this is actually more of a clever debt to equity conversion for Mercedes given AML’s £700+ mil. in payables.”
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What “clever debt to equity conversion” doesn’t need to be in an RNS/reflected in AML/Merc accounts?
Have Mercedes officially denied “a total equity investment of £56m” in AML via the RI, as per the RNS?
Therefore, Karenable is adding spin/idle speculation to the real data & avoiding the most interesting fact.
In their own words… “Mercedes has committed to put cash into AML for the 1st time in the Stroll era”
Now, you can say what you like about those of us on here still holding AML shares…
But no one can say that Mercedes doesn’t know anything about the car industry, nor AML’s issues.
Merc have a seat on the AML board and, despite “their inside man” Moers going, they are still here.
Sorry, got to go…
Cheers, Paul. :)
Doyezee – 21/07/22
Quote - “So correct me if I’m wrong please - regardless of whether or not existing shareholders are given the opportunity to buy more shares through the upcoming Rights Issue, shares we currently hold will depreciate by around 20% to accommodate the new shares being issued to PIF, Yew Tree etc?”
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@Doyezee – Unfortunately, the answer is it depends.
We do know PIF will get around 23.3m shares.
Which will increase the current total of AML shares from 116.5m to 139.8m.
As per my last post, let’s call that 140m shares to make the maths easier.
If the Right Issue is 1 RI share for every 1 original share.
Then this will create 140m RIS shares to add to the ‘post PIF’ total of 140m to give 240m AML shares.
If you get 2 RI shares for every 1 original share, this creates 280m RI shares.
Add that to the ‘post PIF’ 140m and you will have 420m AML shares.
If you get 1 RI shares for every 2 original shares, this creates 70m RI shares.
Add that to the ‘post PIF’ 140m and you will have 210m AML shares.
Etc.
The size of your original AML holding as a % of the new total AML shares will depend on the RI ratio.
It is also unknown (at this point) what the RI will do to the AML share price.
See the separate “AML - Dilution and SP” thread I started on 06/07/22.
Hope that helps, Paul. :)
PS
I’ll be back this evening if you have any questions on the above.
@Son_of_Swiss – At this point, I’m not really bothered about the number of shares as such.
But, to take your example, 100 shares should allow you to buy RI shares worth £411 (ish).
Call it £400 to make @c2645sg’s example easier to show.
(Our last posts crossed this morning.)
If RI @ £4 = 100 shares (1 original share : 1 RI share)
@ £2 = 200 shares (1:2)
@ £8 = 50 shares (2:1)
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Quote – “I doubt it can rise or fall too much now, as if it goes too high (say £10), PIs will not be happy voters at PIF getting in at 3.35.”
@c2645sg – Unfortunately for PIs, I think that ship has sailed, whether they are happy voters, or not.
Stroll will have enough votes to push this deal through and PIF will be getting their shares @ £3.35.
(Remember the JCB boss has already pledged to do what Stroll tells him, plus Directors, etc.)
Which means the AML SP / RI price is more likely to be linked to perceived impact of the whole deal.
DYOR
Cleary, PIF have the ability to significantly support the businesses they invest in.
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/industries/transport/pif-backed-lucid-announces-deal-to-sell-up-to-100000-electric-vehicles-to-saudi-government
Will AML also benefit in a similar way?
AML’s H1 results may give a better idea of what difference the RI will make to AML going forward.
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I know the RI is underwritten, but will the AML ‘Big Guns’ have the options to buy the RI ‘left overs’?
As, depending on the final timings, I may not have enough ‘spare’ cash to take up my full RI allocation.
(The good news is that I will be able to take up a fair chunk.)
But I imagine there might be a large number of AML shareholders who will not have the funds required.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg - Another cross check.
RNS states Yew Tree, Mercedes and PIF will invest £335m.
As before, Yew + Merc = £161m.
PIF is providing tow lots of funds:
£78m for 23.3m shares
+ RI of 23.3m shares x £4.11 = £96m
= £174m total.
£161m + £174 = £335m
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@Son_of_Swiss & @Doyezee – Sorry, I don’t know.
If the maths is right, then it will depend where the AML SP is around the time of the RI.
Sorry, got to go, catch up later, Paul. :)
@c2645sg - The RNS specifically gave the extra amount of cash that Yew Tree & Mercedes have signed up to pay.
Therefore, the £4.11 should apply to all other shareholders, as the ratio is the same.
(Assuming you agree with my maths.)
Cheers, Paul. :)