Member Info for AML_007

@c2645sg – You said “tell me exactly” & then you complain the accuracy of the reply is pedantic?

Are you sure English isn’t a second language for you? ;-)

Anyway, do you still think 2024 Q1 cash is required for the 2023 refinancing fees?

Or does ‘wrong’ mean something else to you as well?

What about evidence that 2024 Q1 sales are “DB12s shipped out as demonstrators/press cars”?

Or your best guess at how many shares I bought in 2022 & how much I paid for them?

Finally, you don’t really believe your response counts as an articulate reply now, do you?

Happy Friday everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

PS

“Someone is selling big chunks the last few afternoons, another 30k and 20k sells this afternoon.”

You do know there are 823m+ AML shares in circulation, don’t you?

Where 30k = 0.004% of 823m.

So, perhaps ‘big chunks’ is another English expression you don’t really understand. < Roll Eyes >

C2645sg – 17/04/24 - Quote:

“When you start dissenting my points articulately, I'll start taking you seriously.

So, tell me exactly what is wrong with anything I have said?

Explain clearly and articulately, without resorting to name calling and swearing.”

- - - - - - - - - -

@c2645sg – Are my posts are not clear and articulate enough for you to understand? ;-)

It would take too long to cover “anything”, so let’s just pick two from the last two weeks…

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – 06/04/24 – Quote: “…and all that extra cash they need for refinancing fees.”

Wrong - “The proceeds from the offering of the Notes… will be used… to pay expenses and fees in connection with the transactions”

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/successful-pricing-of-194163115-billion-refinancing-d5vum9klhftyumb.html

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – 17/04/24 - Quote: “Cash raise soon, last one was announced at £4.40 and new shares were priced at £1.03”

Wrong – Last cash raise was announced at £3.95 and new shares were priced at £3.71.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/result-of-equity-issue-c8j3x74zrxlapmm.html

- - - - - - - - - -

@c2645sg – As for not resorting to name calling, well…

c2645sg – 21/01/24 - Quote: “I get the impression Paul doesn’t really exist, but is a cabal of middle aged, passive aggressive, Aston driving, woefully endowed, divorced simpletons, spouting off on Telegram, and pasting the highlights here.”

- - - - - - - - - -

As always, so much mis-information and so little time to challenge it all.

Have a nice day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

@c2645sg – As you well know, I have never denied that I bought AML shares at high prices.

However, the key to me making money from AML in 2023, was all about what happened in 2022.

So, why not simply answer this question, rather than keep going out of your way to avoid it?

“…please share with the group how many shares I bought in 2022 & how much I paid for them.”

Or explain how you think you know anything about my average without that piece of the puzzle?

Cheers, Paul. :)

Quote: “Never take refuge in the false security of consensus…..”

@c2645sg – So, AML’s refinancing rates for a £1bn+ deal should have been set based on some sort of fortune cookie wisdom, rather than professional rating agency assessments? Who knew? ;-)

- - - - - - - - - -

Quote - “What’s your average here aml007?”

@c2645sg – True to form, you desperately drag out that old chestnut in a vain attempt to distract from your fake news posts regarding demonstrators/press cars registered in Q1 2024, Valkyrie recalls, extra Q1 2024 cash needed for refinancing fees (which were already paid in 2023), etc.

Why do you repeatedly expect me to answer your questions, when you refuse to answer mine?

Afterall, I asked you this very simple question on 06/04/24:

“…please share with the group how many shares I bought in 2022 & how much I paid for them.”

The fact you are not prepared to even guess, confirms you have no idea what I did, or didn’t do.

Have a nice day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg – 12/04/24 – Quote:

“Stroll sold a pile of shares on the last rise up, tells you all you need to know.”

@c2645sg – Why do you include the selling in May23, but not the buying in Aug. & Sep.23?

Stroll/Yew Tree actually increased the number of shares they hold/control during 2023.

From 198.6m at the end of 2022 to 208.5m at the end of 2023.

So, what does that tell us that we need to know exactly?

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – 12/04/24 – Quote: “I'd say the company is in worse shape (more debt and payables etc) with better cars for sale than when he took over.”

@c2645sg – Well you would , wouldn’t you. < Roll Eyes >

However, the three main, internationally recognised, credit rating agencies all agree that AML has improved under Stroll, even if AML is not 100% out of the woods yet.

Fitch

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-assigns-aston-martin-first-time-b-exp-stable-idr-rates-proposed-notes-b-exp-11-03-2024

Moodys

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Aston-Martin-Lagonda-Global-Holdings-plc-credit-rating-825513888

S&P Global

https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3136380

So, why should your opinion count for more than companies who do this for a living?

- - - - - - - - - -

Have a nice day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

Quote – “3 recalls in a week!”

@c2645sg – Thanks for providing the links to the DBX recalls.

Although, perhaps you forgot this also suggests you were posting fake news about the Valkyrie…

c2645sg – 18/02/22 - Quote - “Just wait til the Valkyrie recall hits the press.”

c2645sg – 11/03/22 - Quote – “Anyone seen a Valkyrie actually working yet?

Me neither, all of them have been recalled due to not starting, oil leaks etc”

I’m happy to stand corrected if you can provide the links to those Valkyrie recalls after all.

Have a good weekend everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg – 09/04/23 - Quote:

“Thats because all the DB12s shipped out as demonstrators/press cars were UK registered.”

Son_of_Swiss – 09/04/23 - Quote:

“…All the demos and press cars went out last year…”

- - - - - - - - - -

The briefest of brief checks suggests that @Son_of_Swiss’s statement carries some weight…

Press Car - DB12 AEB

https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/aston-martin/db12

Press Car - DB12 ABB

https://www.evo.co.uk/aston-martin/db12

Both cars were first registered in Sep.23, so definitely not part of the 2024 Q1 numbers.

Evidence - UK Government Records:

https://vehicleenquiry.service.gov.uk/?locale=en

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – 14/12/22 - Quote:

“When you state things then fail to provide evidence, you lose all credibility…

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”

@c2645sg – Based on your own standard, please provide evidence for your DB12 statement.

How many demonstrators/press cars were registered in Q1 2024?

Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

@chesil356 – I think this is more to do with the pre & post 4:1 Rights Issue in Sep.22 (DYOR).

There were 1,525,926 ‘warrant shares’ exercised/issued in 2021 at the £10 option price.

And 8,990,975 ‘warrant shares’ issued between 3rd & 26th July 2023 at the £1.67 option price.

The SP ranged from £3.17 to £3.72 during those July dates, which was above the £1.67 option price.

To date, no ’warrant shares’ have been exercised/issued in 2024.

Hope that helps, have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)

@c2645sg & @Richard365054 – Thanks for the German and UK numbers respectively.

For the 3 Months to March 2024:

Germany = 76

UK = 385

Q1 Total = 461

And, compared to the 3 Months to March 2023:

Germany = -38

UK = +79

Q1 Total = +41

So, perhaps ‘swings & roundabouts’ is a better way to describe Q1, than “sales plummeting”?

C2645sg – 06/04/24 – Quote: “…and all that extra cash they need for refinancing fees.”

@c2645sg – That is simply not true and you either:

- Know it, but post the fake news anyway, as part of your scaremongering / de-ramping strategy.

- Don’t know it, which suggests you don’t understand refinancing at all / didn’t read the RNS.

RNS – 13/03/24 - Quote - “The proceeds from the offering of the Notes… will be used… to pay expenses and fees in connection with the transactions”

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/successful-pricing-of-194163115-billion-refinancing-d5vum9klhftyumb.html

Pretty ironic that after complaining about Stroll, you post “downright lies” yourself. < Roll Eyes >

Cheers, Paul. :)

PS

As for me losing a fortune, please share with the group how many shares I bought in 2022 & how much I paid for them. What’s that? You have no idea? Who knew? So, again, you are simply making stuff up, with no evidence whatsoever to back up your false claims. It’s all a little bit pitiful really.

@c2645sg – Ups and downs in the AML share price is hardly news now, is it?

E.g., Michael de Picciotto / St.James Invest SA had 6.3m AML shares at the time you wrote this…

c2645sg – 13/10/22 – Quote: “Priced for its 8th bankruptcy now.”

Thankfully for them, they didn’t listen to you & sell quickly before AML went bust. < Roll Eyes >

As the closing SP on 13/10/22 was 91p, making their 6.3m shares worth £5.7m at that time.

Instead, they ignored your fake news and held until 18/05/23, when they sold some at £3.35.

At which point, their 6.3m shares were now worth £21.2m (ignoring shares bought after Oct.22).

So, the real test of any investment is the price you get when you actually sell, isn’t it?

At this point, Geely & PIF haven’t sold any of their AML shares, have they?

(And neither have Mercedes, despite your numerous sell off rumour posts.)

Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg – 02/04/24 - Quote: “AML is down 95% from IPO.

If that's what you call investing, then everyone should ignore you, and quite rightly.”

@c2645sg – You once said “I have a photographic memory, I NEVER forget.”

Yet, you now appear to be forgetting that you yourself said investing in AML was a good idea.

c2645sg – 27/10/20 – Quote: “More proof that long term thinking is better than short term. Forget wave theories. Buy a company that has this kind of potential and let it run. I won’t be selling ANY of the considerable amount I have for at least 3 years or anything under £1.50.”

So, was buying a ‘considerable amount’ of AML shares not what you call investing?

And for context, your target AML SP of £1.50 = £30 post the 20:1 consolidation that followed.

Also, for context, you were still ‘investing’ in AML after the SP peaked at £20+ in 2021.

11/06/21 – “Nice, hit my limit order of 1910. Keeping some in reserve in case it goes lower.”

Or was that not what you call investing either?

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – 19/03/24 - Quote: “Bottom line is no decent ceo will want the job with sociopath stroll making all the decisions. Even the banks are saying it.”

Or are really going to claim that Adrian Hallmark doesn’t qualify as a ‘decent’ CEO?

So, if that's what you call investment advice, then everyone should ignore you, and quite rightly. ;-)

As always, so much mis-information and so little time to challenge it all.

Have a nice day, cheers, Paul. :)

@livestock – Thanks for link.

The thing I like about these professional ratings agencies is they balance the good and the bad.

And, overall, AML is clearly improving in their view with is a positive thing.

Will be interesting to see the approach Adrian Hallmark will take when he arrives.

Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :-)

@c2645sg – Do you need a hug?

After all, you did say that… “The more someone posts on here, the more desperate they are.”

And your posts yesterday had such an air of desperation, that perhaps they were a cry for help?

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – Quote - “Because there is not a cash raise today, you think that's it forever?”

@c2645sg – Many people, myself included, have said there ‘may’ be a cash raise in the future. DYOR

The point, which you appear to be desperately trying to avoid, is you confused refinancing with CR.

AML raised over £1.1bn with neither a cash raise, nor a debt for equity swap and zero dilution.

Can you at least acknowledge your error, before getting slightly hysterical about something else?

c2645sg – 21/02/24 - Quote: “AML have said themselves there will be a fulsome refinancing…

Cash raise or debt for equity swap. No other way… tons of dilution coming your way…”

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – Quote - “Why refinance when you ended up paying more in fees than what you save?”

AML Option 1 – Refinance existing debt due to expire in 2025/26.

AML Option 2 – Replay the existing debt in full in 2025/26.

Do you really want me to spell out why Option 1 costs AML less in 2025/26 than Option 2?

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – Quote – “How are they going to pay for this debt refinancing?”

@c2645sg – You asked this before & I’ve answered it before, did you even read the RNS?

RNS – Quote - “The proceeds from the offering of the Notes… will be used… to pay expenses and fees in connection with the transactions”

I also told you AML still had £106m left over from the money they raised last year to pay off debt.

https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2023-results/aston-martin-lagonda-fy-2023-results.pdf

“Cash as at 31 December 2023 includes the remaining £106m of proceeds from August’s share placing, following the redemption of a portion of the outstanding second lien notes in November”

- - - - - - - - - -

@c2645sg – You calculated the new bond interest incorrectly, as it is neither $137m, nor £107m.

One bond is $, the other £, you have just added the 2 interest numbers together. < Roll Eyes >

@TheDuke2 explained PiK interest, highlighting how your old bond interest numbers are wrong too.

So, you posted the same mis-information four times in less than 30 minutes. #SchoolBoyErrors

- - - - - - - - - -

So many false narratives and so little time to challenge them all.

The good news is it is Friday, so have a good weekend everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

PS

Please don’t worry about my average, I’m fine & you seem to be worrying about too much as it is.

@TinyPie2 - Nothing wrong with a balanced assessment, there may be good and bad days ahead.

Although perhaps “no way” is another English phrase that @c2645sg doesn’t really understand? ;-)

- - - - - - - - - -

Prediction:

c2645sg – 29/02/24 - Quote: “No way AML can refinance on better terms than when the rates were almost zero, when still making hundreds of millions in losses, sales declining etc.”

Reality:

Oct.20 – AML $1.09bn loan @ 10.5% - Bank of England Base Rate = 0.1%

Mar.24 – AML $0.96bn loan @ 10.0% - Bank of England Base Rate = 5.25%

“Better terms” = BoE base rate increased over 5,000%, but AML bond rate reduced by 5%.

- - - - - - - - - -

Prediction:

c2645sg – 21/02/24 - Quote: “AML have said themselves there will be a fulsome refinancing…

Cash raise or debt for equity swap. No other way… tons of dilution coming your way…”

Reality:

AML raised over £1.1bn with neither a cash raise, nor a debt for equity swap, plus zero dilution.

- - - - - - - - - -

Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

@selecta6 – Sorry, there should have been a < Wink > in my reply, as most F1 drivers have ‘glanced’.

- - - - - - - - - -

@NoahsArk – Please see the text book definition of refinancing:

“Refinancing is the replacement of an existing debt obligation with another debt obligation under a different term and interest rate.“

AML currently has two long term bonds:

- First Lien of £935m at 10.5% interest maturing in November 2025

- Second Lien of £169m at 15.0% split interest (8.9% cash; 6.1% PIK) maturing in November 2026

Yesterday’s RNS confirmed these two debts would be replaced with a single one, maturing in 2029.

So, there will still be £1,140 million of debt on AML’s books after the refinancing.

Note - The RNS gave “no assurance” as to “the terms”, i.e. the interest due in the next five years.

However, the improvement in AML’s credit rating announced yesterday should help. DYOR.

Finally, the RNS did say the notes would only be offered to “qualified institutional buyers”.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/qib.asp

And that these QIBs would be outside of the UK, USA & EEA.

Obviously, there is a QIB, outside those countries, connected to AML, that might be interested…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Investment_Fund

Did I mention DYOR? ;-)

Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)

@Son_of_Swiss – It does seem that AML used the text book definition of refinancing after all. ;-)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refinancing

“Refinancing is the replacement of an existing debt obligation with another debt obligation under a different term and interest rate.“

So much for @c2645sg’s numerous posts about paying off debt, cash raises, debt for equity and even TERP (associated with an RI), none of which are refinancing.

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg – 11/03/24 - Quote: “Cash from the balance sheet also used to pay for debt refinancing.”

@c2645sg – And once again you are left desperately clutching at straws.

As AML still has £106m left over from the money they raised last year to pay off some of the debt.

See the bottom of Page 10

https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2023-results/aston-martin-lagonda-fy-2023-results.pdf

“Cash as at 31 December 2023 includes the remaining £106m of proceeds from August’s share placing, following the redemption of a portion of the outstanding second lien notes in November”

- - - - - - - - - -

@selecta6 – In fairness to Lance, he hit that wall going a LOT faster than Max Verstappen did here!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8cliRvl2rk

And you don’t hear many people saying Max isn’t one of the greatest F1 drivers ever.

- - - - - - - - - -

Have a good day everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg - 07/03/24 – Quote – “But the share price agrees with me”

@c2645sg – How exactly does the share price agree with your claim that inflation was over 6%?

Or were you just changing the subject to avoid answering the question / providing any evidence?

- - - - - - - - - -

And the Academy Award for most ironic LSE share chat post of the year goes to…

c2645sg - 07/03/24 – Quote – “You keep trying to weave a false narrative, it won't work.”

Or do you actually believe your Mercedes selling/profit warning/bankruptcy/etc. posts were true?

- - - - - - - - - -

Happy Friday everyone, cheers, Paul. :)

C2645sg - 06/03/24 – Quote - “Core ESPs were up 6%, WHICH IS LOWER THAN INFLATION!”

@c2645sg – Can you provide your evidence that inflation where AML sells cars was more than 6%?

Do you have a sophisticated model combining sales by country with that country’s inflation rate?

As the most basic of checks suggests that AML’s core ASP has increased by MORE than inflation.

UK - “4.2% in the 12 months to December 2023”

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/december2023

USA – 3.4%

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/01/11/december-2023-cpi-report/

Europe – 3.4%

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/18343103/2-17012024-AP-EN.pdf/9d885442-f323-cdde-e149-17ed99a63a6f#:~:text=European%20Union%20annual%20inflation%20was,and%20Belgium%20(both%200.5%25).

China – 0.2%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/270338/inflation-rate-in-china/

What impact do AML sales in China, with almost no inflation, have on the inflation average?

- - - - - - - - - -

c2645sg - Quote - “What happens if Lucid goes bust?”

What happens if the sky isn’t falling & it was just an acorn, that fell from a tree & hit your head? ;-)

For someone who claims to stick to facts, you do post a LOT of idle/hysterical speculation.

Or have you forgotten all your (incorrect) “Mercedes are selling” & “priced for bankruptcy” posts?

- - - - - - - - - -

Have a nice day, cheers, Paul. :)

05/03/24 – Quotes:

- c2645sg - “Asp’s are only up because of specials, including valkyrie.”

- Richard365054 – “ASPs have been steadily climbing regardless of specials.”

- - - - - - - - - -

And the winner is… @Richard365054, with @c2645sg being wrong yet again.

Both the “core” & “total” ASP are up, where the “core” ASP specifically excludes the Valkyrie.

Core ASP up from £136k in 2020 to £188k in 2023, see Slide #13 here:

https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2023-results/aston-martin-lagonda-fy-2023-results-presentation.pdf?rev=e898bb4b418a4352a4c2362e87fe1a31

- - - - - - - - - -

And let’s not forget 2023 Valkyrie production was 87, when @c2645sg insisted it was 17 a year max.

At least @c2645sg continued their unbroken record of incorrectly predicting AML sales numbers…

c2645sg - 20/01/24 – “UK sales down over 12% in 2023 compared to 2022… 7000-12% = 6160 sales.”

Actual sales = 6,620.

Which was not materially different to the 6,700 market guidance, so no profit warning required.

- - - - - - - - - -

So much mis-information on here & so little time. < Roll Eyes >

Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)