If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
@Son_of_Swiss
This is my ‘back of an envelope’ Rights Issue calculation based on the RNS.
Does the following logic make sense and do my numbers add up?
Yew Tree:
- Currently hold 25m+ shares
- Full RI entitlement = £105m
Mercedes:
- Currently hold 13m+ shares
- Full RI entitlement = £56m
Therefore, AML are looking to raise the equivalent of around £4.11 per share held.
(Regardless of the final RI ratio, or RI SP.)
Does this simplistic approach give the right scale for taking up all your RI shares?
Cheers, Paul. :)
@c2645sg – What does a post I made in May21 have to do with your AML dilution & SP statements?
Do you accept your statements about % dilution & SP drops were wrong, based on facts/evidence?
(Where the AML SP rose 25% within weeks of a 20%+ dilution.)
- - - - - - - - - -
When someone recently asked you about your AML investment, you replied “None of your business.”
However, to the casual observer, you do seem to be fascinated/obsessed with my AML investment.
But how does anything I’ve said, or done, make the errors in your posts correct/facts/the truth?
- - - - - - - - - -
Another example:
c2645sg - 24/05/22
Quote – “Since the company kept the AGM super quiet (no RNS)”
- Obviously, AML didn’t keep their AGM quiet and there was an RNS.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AML/notice-of-agm/15424081
Quoting my posts on here will not make your false AGM statement correct/factual/truthful.
Anyway, I'm already late for my early morning run...
Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg – 06/07/22
Quote: “Just checked IG. On the 7th Dec the SP dropped from 1622
to 1520 intradady.
3 days later it was 1393.
Unsure which part of that is NOT A SP DROP.”
- - - - - - - - - -
@ c2645sg – As you sometimes like to say… “Nice cherry picking".
Let’s be clear, you are the one stating that dilution automatically leads to a drop in the SP.
Yet, your ‘evidence’ is to pick one day’s SP, while simply ignoring the SP on other days.
Because, taking Dec20 as a whole, AML’s SP did not drop as a result of the dilution.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/AML/historic-prices?startDate=01-12-2020&endDate=31-12-2020&submitbtn=Filter
AML Closing SPs:
04/12/20 (Pre-Dilution) – 79.95p or 1599p post consolidation equivalent
07/12/20 (Post-Dilution) - 81.65p / 1633
11/12/20 – 1417 – Lowest Dec20 closing post dilution (with 1360 being the lowest SP reached)
31/12/20 – 2009 – Highest Dec20 closing post dilution
Unsure which part of that £4.10 (25%) SP rise following a 20%+ dilution is a drop? ;-)
Now, you can argue the Dec20 SP rise had nothing to do with the dilution and you may well be right.
However, that would also provide the same logic that breaks your tenuous link to the brief drop in SP.
Note - The real fact here is that the AML SP has dropped from over £20 in Dec20 to under £4 in Jul22.
This fact is not in dispute.
To be clear, when I say the AML SP is ‘grim’ I really mean it & I am not defending the SP in any way.
But isn’t ramping AML to point out how many of your posts are not the facts/truth you claim they are.
Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg – 19/06/22
Quote: “And how would current holders like a 30% dilution and therefore 30% price fall?”
c2645sg – 29/06/22
“Raising 200m when the sp is just under 600m means a 33% dilution.”
c2645sg – 01/07/22
“Utter waffle… If you dilute the market by 40%, ie raising £200m when the market cap is £500m, then the share price drops by circa 40%. That's how dilution works, no amount of nonsense piffle is going to detract from that. You can’t create all those new shares without the existing shares being worth a WHOLE LOT LESS.”
c2645sg – 06/07/22
“Do you think you can dilute shareholders 40% to raise £200m without the SP dropping 40%?
If so, let us know how.”
- - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg - Repeating the same statements doesn’t make them any more accurate.
As we had the same debate back in Jan22, when you posted this reply to @Vorlich001:
c2645sg - “You think you can dilute the company by 10% and expect the SP not to drop in value to compensate? Deluded. Utterly deluded. Show my one company in the entire history of the stock market where this has happened? Just one. Then you have the ghost of a point. Until then, I'll keep showing you up for the fool you obviously don't mind looking.”
- - - - - - - - - -
Having asked for ‘just one’ example where dilution didn’t lead to an SP drop, I posted this:
Close of business Friday, 04/12/20
1,824,014,450 shares @ 79.95p
Total value = £1.46bn
RNS 7am Monday, 07/12/20
Extra 474,657,287 shares to be added at 8am
Close of business Monday, 07/12/20
2,298,671,737 shares @ 81.65p
Total value = £1.87bn
The ‘one company in the entire history of the stock market’ was…
The one company you post most about – Aston Martin.
AML was diluted by more than 20% and the SP did not drop in value to compensate. #Fact
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/admission-of-placing-and-consideration-shares-o39afeooteytqw9.html
@c2645sg - If you can point out an error, or personal attack, in this post, I will retract it and apologise.
Request – If you want to post something else entirely as a reply, please start a new thread.
(And you know I will not answer any of your questions until you pay your charity debts.)
Anyway, that all from me for today, as I’ve got to go.
Cheers, Paul. :)
2 x RNS in one day for Invesco.
Another 640,063 shares bought yesterday (30/06/22)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/holdings-in-company-72226vcn9f8hqdl.html
19/06/22 - c2645sg – 11:55
Quote – “More important things in life?
Yet you spent hours wrongly attacking me on here, passively aggresive, while I was indeeed correct the whole way down.
Are you finally going to admit the hard facts have hit home at £5, or is there some other BS excuse for that too?
I don't know how you people can live with yourselves.”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – As they say on the internet… “U OK hun?”
Should I have included some sort of trigger warning?
Was it “After a grim week for the AML SP” that made you question how I can live with myself?
I really didn’t expect anyone to interpret the word “grim” as ignoring the current reality of the AML SP.
And surely “it’s good to remember there are more important things in life” isn’t what set you off?
Honestly, my family is more important to me than an internet share chat board or Aston Martin.
I’ll also respectfully dispute your claim that I’m “wrongly attacking” you.
(Especially given the fact that you often quote other people’s previous posts on here.)
By chance, I already have a new series of posts to show you are not as correct as you claim to be.
But, ironically, I didn’t post them yesterday to avoid what @Leonidas1 calls the ‘Punch and Judy’ thing.
Perhaps I’ll now get around to posting them later this week after all.
Then if you can spot an error in what I’ve written, you can point it out and I’ll publicly retract it.
Obviously, you need to pay what you owe to charity before I’ll answer any of your questions directly.
(Last count = £1,500 to Great Ormond Street Hospital and £1,000 to DEC Ukraine fund.)
Anyway, I might be back this evening, but this is all for now.
Cheers, Paul. :)
After a grim week for the AML SP, it’s good to remember there are more important things in life.
I’m off for a run now, while my family are still asleep, before the eating and drinking starts at lunch. ;-)
Hope you have a good one, cheers, Paul. :)
Richard365054 – 25/05/22 – Quote:
“Sad to say I stopped watching this amateur video well before the end. What a wasted opportunity.”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
@Richard365054 – I did fast forward a large chunk of that ‘behind the scenes’ video.
However, the (much shorter) ‘real’ Valkyrie video he made is pretty good…
https://uk.motor1.com/news/588815/aston-martin-valkyrie-supernova-red-track/
Cheers, Paul. :)
@EG68 – Apologies if I am repeating what others have posted (some replies are filtered to me).
Yesterday’s AGM did approve ‘Resolution 21’ to allow the buyback of 11,645,951 AML shares.
Don’t know what AML are planning to do with this option (if anything).
But, at the very least, part of your suggestion is now technically possible.
Sorry, got to go, cheers, Paul. :)
@TinyPie – Thanks for the link.
“More than 100 new skilled automotive technicians have been recruited by Aston Martin at St Athan to support the ramp-up of DBX707 production”
Let’s hope some of these 100 staff include those who lost their jobs before.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LSE stats for today are here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda
Total number of shares sold = 418,955.
Which, even allowing for some possible double selling on the day, is still just 0.4% of the total.
Which means that the remaining 116m shares, or 99.6% of the total, were held today.
Cheers, Paul. :)
@Lurkio13 – A belated reply to your post from first thing this morning.
Quote – “Imho AM will not be able to survive without being taken over/swallowed up by a larger parent company, and the only viable options are Daimler MB or VAG.”
As VAG have Lamborghini & Bentley, I always thought Aston Martin was a great choice for Mercedes.
(Like BMW with Rolls and Stellantis with Maserati, etc.)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Quote - “I guess the question is, are either of them prepared to buy AM and settle the debt, or would they rather wait until AM becomes insolvent, and then pick up the pieces after the debt is written off and the shareholders are wiped out?”
Can I have Door #1 please? ;-)
Although I think bond holders have first dibs on AML assets, so ‘some’ of the debt can’t be avoided.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Quote - “Karenable … is generally a Ferrari fan boy. He never has anything good to say about AM, and to be frank, over the last few years he has made many valid points.”
I hope the following doesn’t come across as bickering...
11/04/22 – Verstappen makes ‘Turtle’ comment.
14/04/22 – FIA politely remind their World Champion that it is a safety car, not a pace car.
https://www.fia.com/news/fia-statement-f1-safety-car
06/05/22 – Karenable leads with the first comment, while ignoring the second.
And this is actually the ironic thing, as there are lot of valid negative points about AML.
So, why go to the trouble of adding extra negative speculation or ‘spin’?
Karenable - “In Q4 2021, Aston “shipped” 10 Valkyries that were deposited in a warehouse in Southern England. These were most likely part of the 14 “delivered” in Q1 2022. If so, that would indicate that Aston was only able to ship and deliver and additional 4 Valkyries in Q1.”
AML – “24 deliveries (Q4 2021 + Q1 2022)”
Thankfully, lots of today’s posts are now filtered to me, so I will try to keep out of it going forward.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Quote - “I guess we shall see. Only time will tell how this will all play out in the medium to longer term.”
Hopefully, the AGM will be the next chance to get an update on where AML goes from here.
Cheers, Paul. :)
c2645sg – 06/05/22 – 10:34
Quote - “Be a man? wtf does that mean?”
- - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – As you have asked, here are some examples…
Invesco bought more shares and, at best, you were confused about warrants.
However, you called @carpymick a liar, when he was right and you were wrong.
Being a man means you apologise to @carpymick.
- - - - - - - - - -
Being a man means you don’t post an error and insult those posting facts.
c2645sg – 05/05/22 – 17:18
“Oh, btw, it IS 14 Valkyries TO DATE, not in addition to the 10 'sold' in Q4 last year. Suckers.”
The official Valkyrie count is “24 deliveries (Q4 2021 + Q1 2022)”.
- - - - - - - - - -
Being a man means accepting that two wrongs don’t make a right.
c2645sg – 18/02/22 – 10:34
“It's taking them 3 weeks to build one Valkyrie.
That's 17 per year., the target was around 120., less than 10%.”
You can quote other people who also got it wrong, but that doesn’t make your calculation right.
AML have admitted they underestimated Valkyrie production and reforecast accordingly.
- - - - - - - - - -
Being a man means not praising yourself for something you didn’t do.
c2645sg – 05/05/22 – 15:52
“Looks like the traders have gone. C26 bang on the money again.”
Bang on what money exactly? As this is what you predicted…
c2645sg – 18/01/22 – 08:27
“If Moers goes, this company is literally worthless.”
c2645sg – 19/01/22 – 07:44
“If AML lose the court case it will drop 20% in one day.
If Moers resigns, probably around the same.”
Well, in the 3 days of trading since Moers left:
- AML is not literally worthless
- The share price hasn’t dropped by around 20%, let alone in one day
- - - - - - - - - -
Being a man means living by the same standard that you expect others to follow.
c2645sg – 14/05/21 – 15:56
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence”
Yet, you have asserted the following without any evidence:
c2645sg – 18/02/22 – 08:03
“Just wait til the Valkyrie recall hits the press.”
c2645sg – 29/03/22 – 10:29
“The court ruled in Nebula's favour on March 8th 2022.”
Note: A press release only you have seen and the following statement doesn’t count as evidence.
c2645sg – 29/03/22 – 07:43
Quote – “Obviously you don't have any friends in the press, awwww, diddums.”
This rule also applies to demanding other people answer your questions, whilst not answering theirs.
- - - - - - - - - -
Being a man means that if you make bets, and lose them, you honour them and pay up.
(Current total owed = £1,500 to Great Ormond Street Hospital and £1,000 to DEC Ukraine fund.)
- - - - - - - - - -
I could go on, but what is the point?
I simply do not have the time to wade through the sheer volume of @c2645sg’s posts.
So, I will put his filter back on and hope others will tell me if I miss anything worth reading.
Have a good weekend, cheers, Paul. :)
Part 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – 01/05/22 – 11:54
Quote – “how do you explain the reduction of...
'% of voting rights through financial instruments"
the exact same day as an increase in ...
"% of voting rights attached to shares"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
It really is very simple and someone with your 20+ years of experience must know this.
Despite retaining share ownership, you lose your voting rights on “Shares lent to third parties”.
So, for Invesco, they own 12,910,584 shares (8A + 8B).
But they can’t vote on the 57,735 they have lent out (8B).
Leaving them 12,852,849 votes (8A).
The key fact is that Invesco, who are not a Stroll ‘insider’, have increased their AML holding.
(From 5.04% to 10.37% to 11.08%)
And their current 12m+ shares are worth £110m @ £8.53 a share.
Anyway, it is brightening up outside and I have chores to do.
Until next time, take care, Paul. :)
PS
c2645sg – 01/05/22 – 11:54
Quote – “Imagine being so biased on a share that you literally make up lies on a BB that are blatantly obvious to everyone.”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – Thanks for the belly laugh.
#Irony
@TinyPie & @carpymick – Hope you are both well.
I’ve been trying hard to simply ignore some of the nonsense posted on here.
But, as the rain has currently stopped my garden chores, I have time for one rebuttal.
Part 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
c2645sg – 29/04/22 – 14:23
Quote – “Most probably converted warrants”
c2645sg – 01/05/22 – 11:54
Quote – “I hope you realise warrants have no voting rights, until they are exercised and converted into shares.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – “Most probably” doesn’t sound like one of your hard facts now does it?
But you are 100% correct on your 2nd statement, which actually proves your first statement is wrong.
RNS – 29/06/21 – Total voting rights = 114,933,587
AML 2021 Annual Accounts:
“Since 1 July 2021, 30,318,600 subscription rights have been exercised by warrantholders and 1,525,926 new ordinary shares have been admitted to trading on the Main Market for listed securities of the London Stock Exchange.”
RNS – 31/12/21 – Total voting rights = 116,209,513
(114,933,587 + 1,525,926 = 116,209,513)
If Invesco has exercised any warrants in 2022, then the total AML voting rights would have increased.
(And AML would have issued a RNS to confirm this.)
So, either explain how Invesco increased their holding without buying shares.
Or apologise to @carpymick for calling him a liar.
c2645sg – 29/04/22 – 14:23
Quote – “They didn't buy any shares, so stop lying.”
Part 3
Which bring us back to this debate a few months ago…
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
MarkPatrick – 18/02/22 – 12:21
Quote – “I was hosted at the Valkyrie build facility in the last few days. I can say with complete confidence that some people’s commentary on here is complete nonsense.
c2645sg – 18/02/22 – 13:15
Quote – “Considering Multimatic are building the cars and AML are just applying final touches in Gaydon, you are obviously lying.”
MarkPatrick – 18/02/22 – 14:32
Quote – “There are carbon tubs lined up in the ‘corridor’ area leading into the Valkyrie facility. Inside the facility there are tubs at various stages of build up, right the way through to those being fettled ready for delivery to customers. Stunning engineering, which feels more motorsport than road car.”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Now, @MarkPatrick’s description matches the description of ‘Broadoak International’ on Instragram.
And both of these descriptions match what AML have gone on record to say they are actually doing.
So, perhaps @c2645sg can provide evidence for his statement of fact?
Especially as he is calling another poster a liar, and claims he himself never lies.
Cheers, Paul. :)
Part 2
Then there is the debate about where the Valkyrie is built.
Aston Martin say they are built in Gaydon and have supplied photos of the production line here:
https://media.astonmartin.com/first-aston-martin-valkyrie-customer-car-complete/
Quote - “Like all Aston Martin sports cars, Valkyrie is being built at the marque’s UK Headquarters in Gaydon. A dedicated project delivery team manages the build right through to delivery in a specially commissioned Valkyrie production area. A team of highly skilled technicians are hand-building each of the 150 cars, with each Valkyrie taking over 2000 man hours to create.”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
But @c2645sg repeatedly tells us that Aston Martin don’t make the Valkyrie, Multimatic do.
Yet, if Multimatic are building one of the greatest cars ever made, they don’t seem to mention it.
(Note – I have emailed Multimatic, but they didn’t reply.)
https://www.multimatic.com/vehicles/road-vehicles/
Clearly, Multimatic does take credit for the work it has done with Aston Martin.
And the development of the Valkyrie is rightly shown as something to be proud of.
Mulitmatic also lists the fact it is responsible for the production of 1,350 Ford GTs.
Based on their work on the Vanquish Zagato, it looks like they make the Valkyrie ‘Body in white’.
https://media.astonmartin.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/831021-500x333.jpg
End of Part 2.
Part 1
Thanks to @CarsCoffee for supplying this link to the Vantage v12 the other day.
https://www.instagram.com/p/Cb4hFYVKpFu/
As that Instagram account also had this post about the Valkyrie Spyder.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CbiYQ7QqLvB/
Which also included a few photos and this quote:
“After a tour of the Valkyrie production line, getting to see them in all their stages of construction from bare monocoque to complete car, you can begin to fully appreciate the remarkable feat of engineering that’s gone into these incredible machines. They’re simply game changing.”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Which seems like a good excuse to finish off this long post about the Valkyrie production line.
Let’s start with AML’s view of how many Valkyries they can build in a year.
23/02/22 - AML 2021 Annual Accounts
2022 Forecast = “75-90 Aston Martin Valkyrie programme vehicles”
And compare that with this analysis/prediction of the production line capacity a few days before.
c2645sg – 18/02/22 – 10:34
Quote – “It's taking them 3 weeks to build one Valkyrie.
That's 17 per year., the target was around 120., less than 10%.”
Obviously, only time will tell if 17, or 75+, is closer to the real Valkyrie production line capabilities.
End of Part 1.
c2645sg – 07/04/22 – 14:41
Quote – “Like I said 12.5 and 15% were demanded when inflation was 1% and interest rates were 0.25%...
Would you as a bondholder accept 7% in a high inflation environment when the last guys got 12.5-15% in a low inflation environment? No, me neither.”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
@c2645sg – You must know that the bond market isn’t based on “What the last guys got”?
So, why post this?
However, just in case, once again, Google is your friend…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating
S&P rated the last AML bonds at CCC – “An obligor is currently vulnerable, and is dependent upon favourable business, financial, and economic conditions to meet its financial commitments.”
However, it is possible to get a good credit rating in times of high inflation.
Please Note – I’m not saying AML will get AAA rated next time (or at any time for that matter).
Just pointing out what bond holders will accept is based on the current rating, not the last one.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Which brings me back to this …
c2645sg – 02/02/22 – 08:30
Quote – “Very few people have noticed Invesco were the big shorters now turned big longers!”
@c2645sg – You often seem happy to speculate about the motives for ‘Big Boy’ sells.
Care to speculate why Invesco hold 12m AML shares if there will be no profit/equity gain in the future?
Cheers, Paul. :)