Member Info for AML_007

TheDuke2 – Quote - “You also never mention that the bond rating has been upgraded last year from CCC to CCC+ with a chance to go to B or better - bringing the risk premium down.”

@TheDuke2 – In addition to your point above, PIF is now AML’s “new anchor shareholder”.

Which holds the possibility (DYOR) that PIF could provide an alternative source of funding.

Their $20bn speculative bid for F1 highlights that they have a LOT of money to play with.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@advocate1973 – In addition to PIF’s 130m shares, Invesco have 72m, Mercedes 68m and Geely 53m.

Perhaps they are all making a terrible mistake (DYOR), but I’ll keep holding for a while longer.

Unfortunately, pointing out where @Troll has been a troll makes no difference at all. {Roll Eyes}

And, with a record of 45 posts in a single day, they have more time to throw at this than we do.
(There has definitely been a marked increase in my green filtered boxes recently.)

Given @Troll’s rather unhealthy obsession with my AML holding, I stopped posting details on here.

Instead, I wrote things like this:
“I’m also still here and topping up every now and then too (as funds allow).”

A 100% truthful statement that deliberately didn’t include two things:
- Total number of shares I bought.
- The price I paid for each of those shares.

I also didn’t post what I did, or did not do, about the RI.

Therefore, any @Troll claim to know what my AML average is today is clearly a bare faced lie. #Fact

Have a good weekend, Paul. :)

@Gkerr – Apologies for the delay in replying…

“Just” hitting the LTIP starting point of a £10 SP before Jun.24 would be worth a drink. ;-)

Thankfully, there is a very BIG difference between what the CEO needs and what I need.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Vorlich001 - Hopefully this link will bring up page numbered 133:

https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/annual-reports/aston_martin_annual_report_2022.pdf?rev=6a462584d1c54890a85a324a2663c3d7&hash=9A3C425CE6101D99D4249E882AA19A4F

The key point is that the £18 SP target was set in Jun.22, before the 4:1 RI.

As per this note on P134:
“While the recent capital raise has impacted the share price, no adjustments have been made to the targets.”

For reference:
Pre-RI – 114m shares @ Feb.21 SP peaks of £22 = Market Cap of £2.5bn.

Post-RI – 698m shares & matching Market Cap of £2.5bn = SP of £3.62.

The recent post-RI SP highs of £3.00 gave a MC of £2.1bn.
(Which would be around £18 SP pre-RI.)

So 698m shares @ £18 SP post-RI gives a £12.6bn Market Cap target.

Which is a HUGE carrot, but I would say it is on the end of a VERY LONG stick. ;-)

Cheers, Paul. :)

One advantage of watching the highlights this morning was it had the final stewards’ decision.

How much did Aston Martin pay to sponsor a car that everyone called a Red Bull?

Compared to that, I’d say the current AML deal with AMF1 is a bargain.

Example of the links in practise here:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2269756/motorsport

Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)

@Son_of_Swiss – Thanks for the article on Jeff Slack, that was an interesting read.

Did you see this video of Alonso trashing a DBX 707 around the track?
(OK, the script is a bit cheesy, but the car looks very impressive for such a big unit.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kLN3s0EZTw

Have a good weekend, Paul. :)

PS
I will be trying to avoid the F1 result until I can watch the highlights early on Monday morning.
[ Which for older readers sounds like a “Whatever Happened To The Likely Lads” episode. ;-) ]

@Son_of_Swiss – I’m sticking with the filter, but can’t imagine they posted anything crasser that this:
(Made at a time when it was already clear there would be significant civilian casualties.)

@Troll – 03/03/22 - Quote – “Putin will take Ukraine with ease and will not stop there, why would he when he can just walk right in and claim them.”

One year on, Putin hasn’t taken Ukraine and, given HUGE Russian losses, it hasn’t been easy either.

Guess their predictions for world events are as inaccurate as their 2022 AML sales forecasts. ;-)
- Valkyries 17 vs 80, GT/Sports “stop buying” vs 3,104 & total sales 5,000 vs 6,412.
(All old quotes taken before filter was applied last year.)

So, let them huff & puff as, quite frankly, who cares what they say?

"If it looks like a Troll, posts like a Troll, and reacts like a Troll, then it probably is a Troll."

Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)

@TinyPie2 - I know beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but , to me, those watches are U-G-L-Y.

But the green is a similar shade to the font used in "This message has been filtered" boxes on here. ;-)

It is almost three months since I made this statement on this thread…

18/12/22 - “I think the AML SP rollercoaster may be with us for a while longer.”

Which seems like a good excuse to revisit these numbers…

Michael de Picciotto & associates:
26/08/22 - Before the RI their £8.73m invested in AML was worth £2.75m, down almost £6m. {Eek!}

Sep.22 – RI & Rump – Added another £5.4m into their AML pot, with a few more top ups after this.

Closed 2022 with a total of 6,486,541 shares, which cost £14,919,497, giving an average of £2.30.

07/03/23 – AML SP briefly breaks £3 and their 6.4m shares were worth £19.4m, up £4.5m/30%.

You could argue their original faith in AML was mis-placed, when they were in a £6m hole.

However, despite finding themselves £4.5m up just over six months later they held, rather than sold.

At close of play today, with an SP of £2.63, they are still up £2m+.

Which illustrates the leverage the 4:1 RI has on averages regardless of earlier SP peaks over £20.

Did I mention DYOR? ;-)

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Daviddavid – Unfortunately, the list of ‘AML Director Deals’ on here doesn’t really add up.

So, the following should be taken with a pinch of salt…

Prior to the RI, Stroll’s holding was listed at 25,580,675 shares on 14/09/22.

However, his RI was shown as 79,102,240, which, when divided by 4, suggests a holding of 19,775,560.

If you take 19.7m shares at 50p in old money, or £10 post 20:1 consolidation, cost = £197.7m.

Stroll’s RI was 79m+ shares @£1.03 = £84.4m.

Plus, his RI ‘rump’ of 4.1m shares @ £1.32 = £5.4m.

Ignoring the (relatively) small Nov.22 buys, that gives 102.9m+ shares, costing £284.6m.

Which would make Stroll’s average around the £2.76 mark (give or take a bit).

As always DYOR, but hope that helps.

Cheers, Paul. :)

PS
I was updating similar calculations for Michael de Picciotto & associates, so I’ll post those next.

Vorlich001 – Thanks for the link, I think it is safe to say he liked it.

“It’s supercar central, but tonight we have upstaged them all.”

Cheers, Paul. :)

advocate1973 – Quote – “Anyone see the massive slip up the other day”

@advocate1973 – I got a lot of green boxes on here this week, but that is a good one.

As my friend from Poland used to say “Lies have short legs”.

Take this example from ‘another place’, but a poster familiar to most on here…

@Swiss Tony - 09/11/22 - “I called it correctly from £23 down to £1.”

@Swiss Tony - 28/09/22 - “I am not short… I sold my rights though.”

So, they called the top, and the drop to £1, but were still holding AML shares in Sep.22?
(To qualify for the RI, that they didn’t take up, thus diluting their holding.)

Hmmmm…

Have a nice Sunday.

Take care, Paul. :)

TerryMC1 – Quote – “…was right for most of it…”

@TerryMC1 - Are you sure about that?

Big difference between what they claimed they said and what they actually said…

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&page=2&thread=16EB0448-6072-4769-97F8-D38F96A7BA54

Their Mercedes sell-off speculation was also just that…

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=7030ADC9-ED1C-463C-8222-EC9802C5E340

And their 2022 sales predictions weren’t right either…

Prediction - 18/02/22 – “It's taking them 3 weeks to build one Valkyrie. That's 17 per year.”

Actual - 2022 Deliveries = 80 Valkyrie

Prediction - 04/05/22 - “2022 is already definitely worse than 2021, and that's before people stop buying GT/sports cars before the update.”

Actual - 2022 GT/Sports Sales = GT @ 1,833 + Sports @ 1,271 = Total of 3,104 cars

Predictions:
- 06/10/22 - “H1 was 2675 sales, and that run rates looks similar in H2 so far. So roughly selling 5300 ish”
- 07/10/22 - “H1 sales were c.2500, therefore full year is 5000”

Actual - 2022 Sales = 6,412

Note - I filtered them last year, so no idea what they are posting these days.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Vorlich001 – Thanks for the link.

Loved the look of genuine fear in Chris’s eyes while driving the Pro into one corner.

But how unfit is he, with all the huffing and puffing while driving the road car?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure it is a handful, but I don’t drive fast cars for a living. ;-)

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Richard365054 – Spooky, I’d written this earlier, but hadn’t posted it before I saw your post.

- - - - - - - - - -

Clearly there was a lot of love in the paddock for Alonso’s result.

I also got the impression Lance had gained some respect out there too.

As he missed 3 days of testing with the new car on the race circuit and was clearly racing injured.
(Post race interview with flip flops for his broken toe & kept rotating the wrist he had surgery on.)

Although the views may have been very different if he took himself and Alonso out on lap 1!

Today’s ‘The Times’ has main features on AML in the business section and AMF1 in the sports section.

I hope the Saudi GP sees PIF say something/anything about their AML investment.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Son_of_Swiss & @TinyPie2 – Good to see Alonso is still keeping his feet firmly on the ground.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/64838388

As the risk of team/driver mistakes was a running theme of the latest ‘Drive to Survive’ series.

- - - - - - - - - -

In AML news…

A £2.40 SP means PIF have turned their circa £174m AML investment into £279m.
(As their average is just £1.49 from the placing & RI, so PIF is up £105m!)

Obviously, we all know the AML SP can go down, as well as up, so let’s see where it ends up.

Have a good weekend, cheers, Paul. :)

Even by AML SP standards, that was a roller coaster of a day!

Hats off to anyone who got in at under 90p in November and out at over 240p in March.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@RonR - Looks like this site's shorts list has finally 'caught up'.

So, in February it has gone from 3.4% to 2.81%.

Just NOT via 1.04.

@RonR – Try here:
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BN7CG237/

The short tracker on here got messed up when Blackrock & Gladstone reduced this month.
(As they were removed completely, rather than reduced.)

D'oh!

Just spotted the swearing filter doesn't like G-a-y-d-o-n.

{Roll Eyes}