Member Info for AML_007

Ghini – 15/02/23 - Quote: “…Reason is those will probably be built by Multimatic, like the Valkyrie…
…Very small chance that MM will start building Valhallas before Valkyries are finished.”

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@Ghini – This was covered back in 2022… Multimatic do not build the Valkyrie, ‘just’ the tub.

https://media.astonmartin.com/first-aston-martin-valkyrie-customer-car-complete/

Quote - “Like all Aston Martin sports cars, Valkyrie is being built at the marque’s UK Headquarters in ***don. A dedicated project delivery team manages the build right through to delivery in a specially commissioned Valkyrie production area. A team of highly skilled technicians are hand-building each of the 150 cars, with each Valkyrie taking over 2000 man hours to create.”

EVO magazine also confirmed the Valkyrie was being built in ***don.

https://www.evo.co.uk/aston-martin/204787/interview-lawrence-stroll-executive-chairman-aston-martin-lagonda

Quote - “When we visited ***don in February, a further three were in build, two were waiting to be started, two completed cars were awaiting sign-off, with nine carbonfibre tubs freshly delivered from Multimatic awaiting their turn to enter the assembly hall.”

Note - Multimatic were involved in the development of the Valkyrie and the initial prototypes.
(And the Valhalla photo on their website suggests they are also involved in this car too.)

But Multimatic themselves do not take any credit for building production/customer Valkyries.

https://www.multimatic.com/vehicles/

However, if ever there was a case where lessons should be learned, it is Valhalla following Valkyrie.

The Valhalla selling price rules out a hand-built car, so its final design must incorporate production.
(Especially if AML are targeting a higher margin on each car they build/sell.)

Have a nice Sunday, cheers, Paul. :)

@Ghini – I read that as deliveries to the Singapore dealer were due end of 2024.
(Rather than first deliveries ‘anywhere’.)

Unfortunately, no date on this piece, but it is still talking about production in 2023.
https://www.stratstone.com/aston-martin/new-cars/valhalla/

Hopefully, the 2022 Results and 2023 Guidance will shed some light on this soon(ish).

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Doyezee – 15/02/23 - Quote: “SP up 15% in 5 days on no news and now at 52 week high. Must be something going around ‘closed circles’ to fuel this”

@Doyezee – The trading volumes are still low in 2023 and I think all the big players are just holding.

But, as you say, there is no real news driving the price up and it was 89p as recently as 02/11/22.

And I’d definitely prefer it to be hovering around £2, rather than 90p. {Wink}

Let’s see what 2023 will bring.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Doyezee – It would be interesting to hear what PIF’s plans for AML are.

PIF got two board members back in Nov.22, but no real announcements about the future.

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@Ghini – Below in an extract from a post I wrote on 29/12/22…

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“MarketScreener shows the number of shares Mercedes held *before* the RI = 13,615,299.

Add a 4:1 RI (54,461,196), which was declared, as per rules above = 68,076,495 current holding.

Who really believes Mercedes would not follow UK stock market rules and try to sell shares ‘under the counter’ and hope no one notices?”

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Have a good weekend, cheers, Paul. :)

Happy Birthday Aston Martin!

110 years old today.

What would the people behind the 1923 Razor Blade make of the 2023 Valkyrie?

https://media.astonmartin.com/aston-martin-ignites-year-long-celebration-of-110th-anniversary/

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@TinyPie2 – Thanks for the link to the DB11 replacement.

@Richard365054 – Thanks for the sales updates.

@advocate1973 – No January RNS / 2022 trading update means AML’s revised targets were met:
- Wholesales of between 6,200 and 6,600
- Valkyries between 75 and 90

Even if they are at the bottom of the range, they are still a lot higher than Mystic Meg’s predictions.
(Quotes taken from one of my previous replies, as they remain filtered to me.)

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@Troll – 06/10/22
Quote: “H1 was 2675 sales, and that run rates looks similar in H2 so far. So roughly selling 5300 ish”

@Troll – 07/10/22
Quote: “H1 sales were c.2500, therefore full year is 5000”

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Anyway, have a good Sunday, cheers, Paul. :)

@Ghini – Last year, there was a brief 2021 trading update on 07/01/22.

This covered missing the previously published Valkyrie target (among other things).

So, there may be a 2022 update on Monday, if the revised 2022 targets were met/missed/exceeded.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Ghini – These days, I just want to avoid the risk of repeating what is already posted in a green box.

As the whole point of a Troll is to get a reaction to what they post, so why would I want to read it?

I’ve said this before, an internet forum can be like a big pub, with lots of different people in it…

Just because someone is allowed in, doesn’t mean I need to waste my time listening/talking to them.

You know the sort, telling you Covid vaccines allow the 5G network access to your bank account. ;-)

Anyway, as you say, Happy New Year to all and let’s see what 2023 brings.

Cheers, Paul. :)

Ghini – 07/12/22 - @advocate: One: you can ignore people, you do not have to respond to them. Two: dont embarrass yourself by showing to world you do not know Star Wars. He talks like Yoda. "The greatest teacher, failure is." So now you know..

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@Ghini – An old quote I know, but your “He talks like Yoda” did make me laugh at the time.

If, and it is a big IF, you believe everything you read on the internet…

@TheAnswerIsNo talks like that because he is from Africa and has never been to England.

Hmmmm…

So, if you think this sounds like Yoda’s wisdom…

@TheAnswerIsNo – 25/08/21 – Quote: “Peoples not want electric car. Cloth brain people want electric car. I not buy car which have no engine which cost much. And battery might break! Then more money for non noise from engine. It bad in my opinion.”

Then perhaps you don’t know Star Wars either. {Wink}

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And that is before you consider he only mentioned selling AML at the top six months after he joined.
(Initially, he just complained about electric cars, throwing sticks, bad legs, cloth brains, etc.)

At which point, he started thanking “C26” for the good advice to sell, as he made lots of “monies” too.

Given his great selling prices, you’d think thanking C26 would be the first thing he would do on here.
(As, apparently, he ‘solded’ @ £21 / £21.65 / £21.74 / £22 / £22.72 / £22.73.)

But here is the real rub…

@c2645sg never actually posted any advice to sell when the AML SP was in the £21/£22 range.

As they were apparently still buying in Jun21:
“Nice, hit my limit order of 1910. Keeping some in reserve in case it goes lower.”

And still holding in Nov21:
“I am an unhappy shareholder. The share price has dropped from £23 to £16 this year”

More details about what @c2645sg did, or did not, post about the AML SP here:

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&page=2&thread=16EB0448-6072-4769-97F8-D38F96A7BA54

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@Ghini – Thankfully, your other quote of “you can ignore people”, is the definitely good advice.

"If it looks like a Troll, posts like a Troll, and reacts like a Troll, then it probably is a Troll."

Cheers, Paul. :)

@TheAnswerIsNo – By chance, I’d recently unfiltered you for my other post.

Are you really saying that predicting the SP is a guide to cleverness?

In which case…

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Quote - @TheAnswerIsNo – 13/10/21: “Its not complicrated, go to £18.75 slowsly and then will be £14.55 on Fevruary 7th. Ifs I not right I go away forever to badland and lives there.”

Actual AML SP on 7th Feb.22 = Range £11.17 to £11.53

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Quote - @TheAnswerIsNo – 13/01/22: “I buyed smaller amount at £13.26 and leave until July and then sell and get outs.”

Actual AML SP in Jul22 = Range £3.51 to £6.29

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Hmmmm...

Back in the filter box you go. {Wink}

@Ghini – I see a lot of green boxes, but assume, based on your reply, this is Karenable related.

In which case, never let the facts get in the way of more idle speculation based on ‘sand’. {Wink}

Karenable – 28/12/22 – Quote - “If this latter figure is accurate”.

Hardly the solid foundation to build a compelling case upon, especially as there are rules:

“In accordance with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) rules, Panel of Takeover and Mergers board (PTM) rules, an investor who acquires, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% of a UK Company, must, under the Companies Act 1985 Section 198, disclose their interests to the London Stock Exchange and the company, within two days.”

For reference, the timeline for Geely’s stake being made public was 3 days:
- 28/09/22 – Crossed threshold
- 29/09/22 – Notified
- 30/09/22 – RNS confirmation

But, according to Karenable, 3 months after Geely got their shares from either Mercedes or Invesco, neither company have declared a corresponding reduction in their own AML holdings?

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Note:
MarketScreener shows the number of shares Mercedes held *before* the RI = 13,615,299.

Add a 4:1 RI (54,461,196), which was declared, as per rules above = 68,076,495 current holding.

Who really believes Mercedes would not follow UK stock market rules and try to sell shares ‘under the counter’ and hope no one notices?

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Cheers, Paul. :)

@Ghini – I’m happy to be corrected, but my understanding is that Rule 9 of the Takeover Code requires a mandatory offer to be made when the 30% controlling interest mark has been reached. The offer price would be the highest price paid by Stroll/Yew Tree/Associates in the 12 months before the 30% point was reached.

Alternatively, Stroll/Yew Tree could issue a ‘No intention to bid statement’ which would stop them making a full bid for the next 6 months following the point 30% was reached, subject to various bits of small print.

Now, if (big IF) the 30% had been reached on 01/12/22, then the highest price Yew Tree paid would have been £12.32 on 16/12/21 and many LTH on here would have been jumping for joy / having a heart attack.

Unfortunately, apart from the RI & Rump, there wasn’t any Yew Tree buys until recently, so the highest price in the last 12 months for any offer would be sub £2.

Part of the mandatory offer rules also allows a “Squeeze-out of the minority”. For this to happen, then Stroll/Yew Tree would need 90% of the remaining shares to accept the offer. The good news (for us) is that EXCLUDES the 30% that they are starting from.

Using rough numbers:
- Stroll/Yew Tree have 28.4% = 198m shares
- They need another 10.9m to reach 209.6m / 30%.
- That leaves 489.1m/70% they don’t control, from a total of 698.7m shares
- 90% of those 489.1m shares must accept the offer (440.2m)
- Which gives an effective veto to anyone with more than 10% of the 70% = 48.9m shares

If you assume (DYOR) that Stroll/Yew Tree would not consider reaching 30% / making a bid without PIF and Mercedes on board, that would still leave Invesco (72.8m shares) and Greely (53m) as the key to allowing a mandatory bid to pass/fail.

More details here:
https://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/PDF/takeover_guide.pdf

Hope that helps.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Son_of_Swiss – My apologies, I’m sticking with the filter/Green Boxes, but is this a real quote?

“I bet Stroll is employing people to ramp on here, makes so much sense…”

So, the logic that ‘makes so much sense’ is that Stroll is paying people to ramp the AML SP, at exactly the same time as he, and his associates, are systematically increasing the percentage of AML that Stroll has full control over, by buying more shares?

Really? {Rolls Eyes}

If we are going to run with idle speculation, then, surely, it would make more sense for Stroll to be de-ramping the SP, so he can increase his control of AML for less money?

Alternatively, I would suggest (DYOR) that the SP rise since the low of 89p on 02/11/22 (after Q3 results) is due to the tens of millions of shares being bought by Stroll/Yew Tree/Bertarelli/Michael de Picciotto/Saint James/etc. since then. (As per multiple RNS).

I can’t be bothered to research it, but perhaps there is a better correlation between the times when AML shorts have increased and the number of #ProjectFear posts that appear on here? {Wink}

Anyway, Christmas is coming and there are things to do…

Have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)

@Brewman91 – Details of the original ‘Long-term Incentive Plan awards’ (LTIP) are here:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/directorpdmr-shareholding-om28fft8tzldwc6.html

However, I read this afternoon’s RNS slightly differently to @Ghini…

The LTIP was agreed in Jun.22, a month before the PIF placing & RI was announced.

Therefore, the 4:1 RI will have diluted the value of the original LTIP shares.

These were the closing SP from the day before each RNS
10/06/22 - £6.118
19/12/22 - £1.77

Amedeo Felisa
Original LTIP = 323,674 @ £6.118 = £1.98m
Add extra 549,154
Total LTIP = 872,828 @ £1.77 = £1.54m

Doug Lafferty
Original LTIP = 110,974 @ £6.118 = £0.68m
Add extra 188,281
Total LTIP = 299,255 @ £1.77 = £0.53m

So, even with the extra shares, the LTIP starting point today is worth less than in Jun.22 (around 78%).

DYOR on what that may, or may not, say about where these two think the SP will end up.

@Ghini - Happy to be corrected if I’ve got the wrong end of the stick.

Cheers, Paul. :)

Son_of_Swiss – Quote:
“It’s complete crap claiming that Mercedes are selling all their AML shares from the usual source”

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@Son_of_Swiss – Well, Christmas is the usually a time for lots of repeats on TV…

So, are any of these new posts similar to the de-ramping Mercedes stuff posted earlier this year?

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=7030ADC9-ED1C-463C-8222-EC9802C5E340

@Son_of_Swiss - In Oct22 we were told a 200,000 sale was HUGE in context.

Since then, Stroll & associates have made buys of over 64,000,000 shares.

If a 200k sell was worth a warning, why isn't 64m buys a good thing?

Anyway, I've got to go, have a good day, cheers, Paul. :)

@Son_of_Swiss - Do any of the green boxes cover today's RNS and Stroll's latest buy of 3m shares?

Ghini – Quote – “…Why did he not buy sooner after RI or at lows? Ok maybe to wait and see how low it would go but even the last two or three weeks there have been lower days he could have bought..? It can make a big difference..”

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@Ghini – Compared to their overall average, the impact of the 4:1 RI makes the SP since then ‘noise’.

Again, this is in the context of the 6.4 Michael de Picciotto/Saint James shares covered by RNS:
- After the RI + Rump – Total holding = 5.8m+ shares, with an Avg. of £2.44.
- After next 217k shares in the 90-96p range – Total = 6m shares with an Avg. of £2.38.
- After next 432k shares in 111-141p range – Total = 6.4m shares with an Avg. of £2.30.

Therefore, as long as the SP is lower than their current average, it will still ‘improve’ their position.
( Obviously, buying more at the lowest price would improve it further, but no one is perfect. {Wink} )

It is worth remembering the value, on paper, of their holding when the RI was first announced.

At close of play on 02/09/22, the SP was 480p and their 2020 & 2021 AML shares were down £5.6m!

In the context of a HUGE ‘paper loss’, adding another £5.1m to cover the RI + Rump was significant.

Clearly, they could be throwing good money after bad and should have cut their losses (DYOR).

But, I, and I’m sure many others on here, hope their commitment to AML’s future pays off.

Cheers, Paul. :)

As always, DYOR, the following is just my observations…

AML gave a TERP of £1.78 and this is the closest the SP has been to that since the RI in September.

Which, for me at least, is a reminder of what a ‘good’ AML SP will look like these days.

As PIF are already ‘up’ on their £192m AML investment, as they have an average of just £1.48!
(Placing + RI + Rump)

Which leads me to Michael de Picciotto/Saint James, who, like Stoll, increased their AML holding.

As he is often referenced for being a director/insider who bought AML at over £18 in 2021.

There is a list of Director deals here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/DirectorsDeals.asp?shareprice=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda

But there appears to be something wrong with the running totals in the list.

I can find 18 x RNS to cover 92% of the 6.9m shares listed, leaving 0.5m shares unaccounted for.

- 2020 – 262,039 shares - Avg. = £10.00 (post 20:1 consolidation, 50p in ‘old money’)
- 2021 – 380,715 shares – Avg. = £16.06 (early 2021 £18 deals offset by later 2021 £12 ones)
- 2022 – 5,843,787 shares – Avg. = £1.06 (including 4.8m RI @ £1.03 and some sub £1 deals)
Total of 6,486,541 shares, at a cost of £14,919,497, equals an average of £2.30.

Ignoring the 0.5m MIA, at £1.73, Michael de Picciotto’s 6.4m shares are still ‘down’ £3.7m (ish).

However, the point is the AML SP doesn’t need to be near £18 to break even on those 6.4m shares.

As “just” a 57p rise (around 33%) from Friday’s close of £1.73 would do it (did I mention DYOR?).

Whilst SP has risen 84p/94% since the Nov.22 low of 89p, who knows when/if that might happen.

As, unfortunately, I think the AML SP rollercoaster may be with us for a while longer. {Roll Eyes}

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday. Cheers, Paul. :)

I’m still resisting any temptation to un-filter @Troll.

But I am mildly curious to know what word was used to describe the 4m buys in today's RNS.

27/10/22 - Quote: “huge is in context, light volume in AML these days, 200k sell was huge.”

Since that was written, Stroll & associates have increased their stake from 19% to over 27%.
(Which is over 61 million shares bought.)

What is the context of these 61m buys, when a 200k sell was large enough to mention?

Anyway, I’ve got to go, so catch up later.

@Son_of_Swiss – As @Ghini has already said, the legal action itself is real.
(As confirmed by AML via a Jun.21 RNS and the Sep.22 RI Prospectus.)

However, AML included the following in an email to me back in Apr.22:

“… the company will at all times remain fully compliant with all disclosure obligations to which it is subject.”

Therefore, if there was any real news, worthy of reporting, AML would be required to announce it.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Ghini – My apologies, I thought you meant Stroll taking it private with his own money.

But just to pick up on some of your thoughts while I’m here…

Shareholder pressure – So far, unhappy shareholders haven’t translated into any real pressure.
As Stroll has all the votes he needs and all his plans have passed with clear majorities.
It is a similar story regarding negative press, as I only remember one RNS response to ‘news’.

RI – I agree that we don’t really know what was said to the big players before the RI.
However, it wasn’t just their support on paper, as they also coughed up tens of millions in cash too.
Which gives the impression that they must think it will be worth it in the end (whatever that is).

Public >> Private >> Public again – I can’t see this after the mess AML got into after the original IPO.
Would Stroll make more money selling out once vs. extra costs to go private & then go public again?

As I said before, I would like to know what AML’s master plan with PIF is.
PIF certainly have enough cash to replace the existing bonds at a better rate, but will they?
As @TinyPie2 said yesterday… “Only time will tell.”

As always, DYOR.

Have a good weekend, Paul. :)