Member Info for AML_007

Despite AML’s rejection of their takeover bid, Geely have taken up 7.5% / 55m+ shares:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/holdings-in-company-p1vkvkev15fauwk.html

@EG68 - An extra 14m shares for PIF brings their AML investment to over £192m!

@Poleaxe - I think all trading in, and therefore any possible shorting of, AMLN has ended.

As the RI shares themselves are due to go live tomorrow at 8am.

See the revised timetable, linked to the Queen's funeral Bank Holdiay.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/rights-issue-offer-period-amended-azox0d3765nhy4q.html

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Ghini – At the Revival, it is actually the people in ‘normal’ clothes who look funny. ;-)
(Light blue racing overalls for me, in the 1960s style of Surtees, Clark, Hill, etc.)

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@Richard365054 – I was lucky enough to be a last-minute replacement for a free ticket.
(That also covered the March grandstand and ‘Club House’, plus Paddock Access.)

Unfortunately, that did mean an early start and late finish, with a lot of driving/traffic queues.

Well worth all the effort, with the added bonus of seeing Sir Jackie Stewart being interviewed.
(He was just a few feet away, when we just happened to be in the March marquee as he arrived.)

https://www.raceagainstdementia.com/

Last time I was at Goodwood it was as a volunteer.

Which is a great way to get the Revival experience without the cost and accommodation hassles.
(Separate campsite with shuttle service, so you can arrive on Thursday and leave on Monday.)

You pay the full ticket price in advance, but it is refunded at the end if you complete your work.

I did 3 x PM shifts which left me free in the mornings to have a good look around.

Cheers, Paul. :)

PS
Goodwood held a Ferrari 75th anniversary parade, so perhaps Aston Martin will get 110 years in 2023.

I was at Goodwood yesterday and visited the Aston Martin stand at the ‘Earls Court Motor Show’.

Aston Martin had three cars on display representing:

The Past – DB5

The Present – DBX 707

The Future – Valhalla

I must say the Valhalla does look very good when you see it in real life.
(Especially the whole rear end/diffuser set up.)

The other joy of the Revival is seeing the old cars both in the pits and on the track.
(My ears are still ringing from some of the racing pipes that were very LOUD!)

Cheers, Paul. :)

@wildtiger – The ‘new price’ is linked to the RI, so there isn’t an ‘old price’ comparison as such.
(Whereas you could talk about the old/new price pre/post the 20:1 consolidation.)

PIF bought over 23.2m shares @ 335p = £78m+.

They have committed to take all of their 93.1m RI shares @103p = £95m+

Giving them a total cost of £173m+ for 116m+ shares at an average cost of 149p.

Hope that helps.

Cheers, Paul. :)

D'oh!

Must type faster! ;-)

@TescoTrader - £0.10 is the ‘nominal value’ of all AML shares.
(Including the ones that you already own, regardless of what you paid for them.)

There are 559m new RI shares being issued for £1.03, but with a nominal value of £0.10.

Hope that helps.

Cheers, Paul. :)

Obviously, the approaching Rights Issue may also have influenced Friday’s closing SP.
(Along with all the usual external factors at play at any given time.)

But, if my maths is correct, it does appear that the initial PIF investment has gone well.
(As despite an almost 20% dilution of shares, there was a small 5%+ rise in the SP.)

Close of business Thursday, 08/09/22
116,459,513 shares @ 456.7p
MC = £531.9m

RNS 7am Friday, 09/09/22
PIF’s 23,291,902 ‘Placing’ shares (@335p / £78m) to be added at 8am

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/admission-of-placing-shares-total-voting-rights-cm3620j23hwqr2y.html

Close of business Friday, 09/09/22
139,751,415 shares @ 482.8p
MC = £674.7m

Clearly the fact that AML’s MC is still significantly below the previous highs remains grim.

And the RI dilution will be 400%, so we will have to wait and see how that turns out (DYOR).

Cheers, Paul. :)

Quote - “The people you mentioned; ie the large shareholders, AML shares worth just a pocket change or a flutter for the fun of it.”

There is a case (rightly or wrongly) for saying Stroll is having a flutter on AML with pocket change.

But there is no way Mercedes have just taken £56m from Petty Cash for some ‘fun’ with AML. ;-)

Mercedes, Invesco and PIF will all have required some form of approval for their AML investments.

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Quote - “Gone bankrupt 7 times before! Each with “big players" invested.”

I’m not sure you are comparing ‘like with like’.

As the original AML ‘big players’ from the 1920s & 30s, had names like Count Louis, Lady Charnwood & Sir Arthur Sutherland, which are hardly Mercedes in 2022. ;-)

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Having said that, I wonder what both Invesco’s AML average and their thought/approval process is.

Especially as PIF’s total investment of £174m (Placing + RI) will have an average of just £1.49!!

Which would put PIF up £33m (on paper) if AML’s forecast TERP of £1.78 was achieved.

Nice work if you can get it.

Obviously, DYOR on what you think the actual TERP will end up at.

Cheers, Paul. :)

Quote – “So in the example of EG68 a MC of £1.69bn would mean a rise of another 450M to reach break even, until then he is down. Correct?”

@Ghini – Assuming AML’s TERP valuation is correct, then yes, MC needs to increase by £450m.

Obviously, the TERP starting point could be higher or lower, but the breakeven would still be £1.69bn.
(Where gains made on the RI shares would offset the losses on the original shares.)

@EG68 - Sorry, got a meeting starting at 1pm.

Unfortunately, I'm still working out the options myself and couldn't/wouldn't offer advice.

I think a lot of PIs will have to make similar calls based on the availability of 'spare' cash for the RI.

Good luck!

@EG68 – AML have listed the TERP as £1.78 based on the Friday’s close.

Which puts your £1.67 calculation in the right ball park.

So, to break even on your £121.2k costs, AML SP needs to increase post RI to just over £2.42.
(50,000 shares x £2.424 = £121,200)

AML’s TERP of £1.78 x 698m shares = Market Capitalisation of £1.24bn post RI (& PIF placing).

Therefore, your breakeven point requires AML’s MC to increase to £1.69bn+ (698m shares x £2.42+).

As always, DYOR as to whether you think those numbers will be achieved.

Hope that helps, cheers, Paul. :)

@Richard365054 – Unfortunately, I’m not paid to post and have admitted this is a waste of my time.

Although, it’s quite amusing to see @c2645sg going to such lengths to change the subject (again). ;-)

However, my apologies for continuing, what @Leonidas1 called, the whole ‘Punch and Judy’ thing.

Cheers, Paul. :)

c2645sg – 03/09/22 – Quote:
“What's your average then Paul?”

@c2645sg – Nice try. ;-)

But why would I tell you my average?

As your standard reply to me, or anyone else, asking about your AML holding/average is…

c2645sg – 26/11/21
Quote: “My shareholding is none of your business AML007”

Do you really believe there is one rule for you and a different rule for the rest of us?

Anyway, you have changed the subject (again).

The question was about your AML RI predictions and what were the most likely outcomes:
- An extra 5bn RI shares?
- An RI price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31?
- Or both/neither/something else?

Thankfully, there shouldn’t be long to wait for the details, as the AML circular stated:
“The exact number of New Shares to be issued pursuant to the Rights Issue will be set out in the Prospectus which is expected to be published on or around 5 September 2022”

So, until then, have a nice Sunday, cheers, Paul. :)

@c2645sg – You really do take things out of context to change the subject, don’t you? {Roll Eyes}

In fact, the poster doth protest about Trolling too much, methinks. ;-)

Your post about dollar exchange rate and interest rates was clearly linked to the RI cash raise.

As you included this section in the middle of it...

c2645sq – Quote:
“If you think the forthcoming fund raise would see them through until the bond debt matures in 2024, then you might need to rethink.”

So, pointing out there is no impact on the cash requirement was relevant to your fund raise statement.

Was me writing “Obviously, the P&L charge due to FX changes is a difference story!” not clear enough?

Now I have provided your requested rebuttal…

Perhaps you can clear up your AML RI predictions for us?
- Is it an extra 5bn shares?
- Or an RI price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31?
- Or both/neither/something else?

Have a good weekend, Paul. :)

PS
Quote - “Your average buy price for AML is £15 Paul”

[Panto]

“Oh no it isn’t!”

[/Panto]

c2645sg – 01/09/22 - Quote:
“Pound v Dollar at last results on July 29th was 1.22
Today it is at 1.16, a 5% drop, so you can imagine what this has done to the interest payments.”

@c2645sg – Exchange rate drop from Q1 ($1.32) to H1 ($1.21) made no difference to interest cash.
(Obviously, the P&L charge due to FX changes is a difference story!)

AML 2022 interest costs (cash):
Original guidance - c.£125m @ £1 : $1.35
Q1 2022 Update - c.£130m @ £1 : $1.32
H1 2022 Update - c.£130m @ £1 : $1.21

Which suggests that AML have fixed their 2022 interest dollar requirements @ £130m cash.

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c2645sg – 01/09/22 - Quote:
“5 billions (for the pedant) of new shares could be created and announced on Monday.”

@c2645sg – But is that likely, especially given your predicted RI price of £2.45 from 04/08/22?

As 5bn shares at £2.45 would raise £12bn, which is over 20x the £575m AML are looking for.

Alternatively, 5bn shares could raise ‘just’ £575m, if they were £0.12 each.
(An RI price discount of over 99% against yesterday’s close of £4.49, which is also unlikely.)

So, why talk of the maximum number of shares AML “could” issue, as though it might happen?

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c2645sg – 30/08/22 - Quote:
“Can anyone imagine how difficult it will be to rollover the huge AML bond debt in 2024 now?”

@c2645sg – Is that before, or after, PIF’s investment and corresponding seat on the AML board?

As it is possible to imagine PIF providing long term/bond finance to AML in 2024 (DYOR).

Anyway, I’m already late for my morning run, cheers, Paul. :)

PS
[Pedant On]
It is billions when you don’t specify a number, e.g., “maybe even billions”.
But billion if you do, e.g., ‘5 billion new shares’ or ‘£1.5 billion’.
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/billion
[/Pedant Off]

{Wink}

@badflaw - I could be wrong, but I think the cut off was at yesterday's close and the announcement is after close today.

https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/FTSE_FAQ_Document_UK_2022.pdf

Sorry, got to go, cheers, Paul. :)

@c2645sg – Thank you for confirming what a complete waste of my time this is. {Roll Eyes}

“What’s the point of arguing with someone who thinks a billion starts at 2,000,000,000”

As clearly there is no point in trying to debate with someone who thinks “billions” is singular.

You wrote “maybe even billions” and I pointed out that “billions” must be a minimum of 2bn.

#Fact

#ShouldHaveGoneToSpecSavers

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“The lower the SP falls, the bigger the dilution required, the more shares they need to create.”

Agreed, no one is disputing this, the question was how many RI shares would be needed?

How low would the AML SP need to be for the RI to issue “maybe even billions” of extra shares?
(Compared to your prediction of double earlier this month.)

#YourWordsNotMine

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“Hence why no-one should listen to a single word you say.”

Whereas, everyone should listen to everything you say?

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=7030ADC9-ED1C-463C-8222-EC9802C5E340

Or are you still standing by your recent Mercedes speculation as the truth/facts?

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Cheers, Paul. :)

c2645sg – 28/08/22 - Quote:
“Invesco you say?
The creditors own high debt companies, such as AML and CINE.
Equity holders will get wiped out and creditors will take over.”

c2645sg – 28/08/22 - Quote:
“Invesco have been acquiring AML shares.
They know what's coming. and so do you.”

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@c2645sg – You appear to be mixing up AML’s bond holders with their equity holders.

Your FT quote suggests Invesco would get control of CINE as a secured lender.

But in AML, Invesco are “just” another ‘non-insider’ equity holder.

So, if “equity holders will get wiped out” …

Why are Invesco potentially acquiring an extra £60m+ worth of AML shares via the RI?

What exactly do Invesco know is coming?

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c2645sg – 04/08/22 - Quote:
“Therefore double the number of shares, rights issue price of £2.45 and TERP of £3.31.”

c2645sg – 28/08/22 - Quote:
“Hundreds of millions of new shares, maybe even billions, and people selling them instantly after the RI. If you think the SP will rise on the back of that, then it's top up time. Crack on!”

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@c2645sg – Has your estimate for the number of RI shares really gone from 139m to 2,000m?

“Double” = 116m today + 23m PIF = 139m.

“Billions” = A minimum of 2,000,000,000.

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Anyway, there is the rest of the Bank Holiday to enjoy.

Cheers, Paul. :)