Member Info for AML_007

c2645sg – 07/04/22 – 14:41
Quote – “Like I said 12.5 and 15% were demanded when inflation was 1% and interest rates were 0.25%...
Would you as a bondholder accept 7% in a high inflation environment when the last guys got 12.5-15% in a low inflation environment? No, me neither.”

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@c2645sg – You must know that the bond market isn’t based on “What the last guys got”?

So, why post this?

However, just in case, once again, Google is your friend…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating

S&P rated the last AML bonds at CCC – “An obligor is currently vulnerable, and is dependent upon favourable business, financial, and economic conditions to meet its financial commitments.”

However, it is possible to get a good credit rating in times of high inflation.

Please Note – I’m not saying AML will get AAA rated next time (or at any time for that matter).

Just pointing out what bond holders will accept is based on the current rating, not the last one.

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Which brings me back to this …

c2645sg – 02/02/22 – 08:30
Quote – “Very few people have noticed Invesco were the big shorters now turned big longers!”

@c2645sg – You often seem happy to speculate about the motives for ‘Big Boy’ sells.

Care to speculate why Invesco hold 12m AML shares if there will be no profit/equity gain in the future?

Cheers, Paul. :)

Son_of_Swiss – 08/04/22 – 11:37
Quote – “If anyone seriously thinks whatever they say, are you listening C3p0, is going to have any effect whatsoever on the share price then they are seriously deluded!!!

A total of 15% of the shares are held by private investors of which probably less than 1% actually read the posts on LSE.

Which is why I cannot for the life of me understand why C3p0 seems to spend his whole life on here?????”
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@Son_of_Swiss – I would say the opposite, it must work, otherwise why go to so much trouble?

All Spam, Junk Mail, etc. assume a very small success percentage, but still think it is worthwhile.

You are right, the bulk of the AML shares are held by Stroll & his associates, who are all holding.
(Even those you bought @ £19.)

And Stroll isn’t going to read some of the stuff on here and say “You’re right, I’ll sell up now” is he?

So, the constant stream of negativity is not aimed at those people who actually run the company.

It must be aimed at the small retail investor who may be worried.

However, there is now so much nonsense posted on here it is almost impossible to keep on top of it.

I’ll try to do my bit today and then leave it to others for the next few weeks, as this is a waste of time.

Have a good weekend everyone.

Cheers, Paul. :)

c2645sg – 06/04/22 – 16:13
Quote – “Google is your friend.
Read this first then starting googling Florian, Andreas, Nebula, etc.”

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The great thing about Google is you can usually find just about anything you want.

For Example…

Take the heading of this Aston Martin press release dated 16/03/22.

“INTRODUCING THE NEW V12 VANTAGE: A SPECTACULAR FINALE FOR AN ICONIC BLOODLINE”

Now copy and paste it into Google and press return.

As if by magic, look how many different websites carry the details of the AML press release.

However, what combination of words on Google will bring up @c2645sg’s Nebula press release?

As far as I can tell, the only two places it appears is where @c2645sg has posted it on Share chats.

In this case (excuse the pun) it seems Google is not my friend, as it doesn’t have the press release on it.

Perhaps with the right combination of words I be able to find it on Google tomorrow morning.

Until then, take care, Paul. :)

@c2645sg – Is this your way of saying you were wrong when you said the Valkyrie does work?

- “Until we see an owner drive one properly, we can still assume they don't work.”

- “…no customer has a working version.”

As it is pretty hard to crash a car that “Looks great, but it aint moving.” ;-)

Or are you saying an F1 inspired car might lead to F1 car incidents?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLvLusxqpj4

After all, even Ferrari drivers crash their cars on the road.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-60958879

@TinyPie - D'Oh!

2 years of working from home has destroyed my eyesight!

Cheers, Paul. :)

@selecta6 - Exactly, it is a written agreement to do what he is told!

The key (for me) is that despite the last 12 months, he has renewed this for another 12 months.

Cheers, Paul. :)

c2645sg – 15/03/22 – 18:05
Quote – “Paul, how about we meet up instead?
Where are you based? I am in the UK in June.”
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@c2645sg - What, instead of you settling the three bets that you made (and lost) on here?

Why would I agree to doing something that results in the two charities losing out?

No, if it is all the same to you, I’d prefer you to donate the money you owe to charity.

Thanks and goodnight, Paul.

c2645sg – 15/03/22 – 17:33
Quote – “Haha, so after all that piffle, Invesco have reduced by £30million.
That didn't take long!”

c2645sg – 15/03/22 – 17:34
Quote – “I'd bet any money that Invesco bought in, then instantly loaned them out to the shorters.”

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@c2645sg – Why do you keep making bets you have no intention of honouring?

As you are clearly not a man of your word are you?

Still, another chance to see if you have any honour and raise some more money for charity…

The link provided shows Invesco holding 9m AML shares on 31/10/21.

RNS stating increase in their holding to 12m shares was dated 02/02/22, some 3 months later.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AML/holding-s-in-company/15311787

The following is your logic for posting on here, which sounds like @TinyPie’s ‘Russell's Teapot’…

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c2645sg – 14/05/21 – 15:56
Quote – “That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence”

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So, prove your Invesco statement, or make the following charity donations:
- £500 to Great Ormond Street Children’s Hospital.
- £500 to the DEC Ukraine fund

Which makes it a total of £1,500 for GOSH and £1,000 for Ukraine.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@c2645sg - Can you provide any evidence that you have settled your debts to charity yet?

Until then, talk to someone else.

Cheers, Paul. :)

I know a lot of my Sunday posts were deleted.

So in this one, I will not mention the other poster’s ID to see if that helps.

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Quote – “Is this the level of intellect I have to deal with? Slower than a week in jail.”
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I’m always happy to bow to other people’s knowledge of what a week in jail feels like. ;-)

But this is the apparent level of intellect that we have to deal with…

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Quote – “After the oil price spike to $140 in 2008, AML car sales were down 16.7% in 2008 and 30% in 2009.
FACT.
https://carsalesbase.com/europe-aston-martin/”

Quote – “I shared a link showing how sales dropped 17% and 30% when oil prices last spiked to $140 If you want to try to ignore that or re-write history, crack on....”

Quote – “Sales dropped massively when the oil price rose, not exactly rocket science.”
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Well, there is a big difference between correlation and causation in this claimed ‘fact’.

Here is a beginner’s guide:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQfacqVvOEM

So, yes, it is a fact that oil prices spiked to $140 a barrel in the middle of 2008.

It is also a fact that AML car sales were down in 2008 & 2009.

However, whilst there may be a tenuous correlation at best, there certainly isn’t a causation link.

As the missing fact is that oil prices had also collapsed to less than $40 a barrel by early 2009.

https://www.statista.com/chart/27000/brent-crude-barrel-price-timeline/

Therefore…

If the high oil price causation logic/fact was true…

The low oil price in 2009 would have lead to an increase in AML sales in 2009.

At least the statement that this isn’t exactly rocket science is correct.

Cheers, Paul. :)

c2645sg – 07/01/22 – 08:11
Quote – “I haven't lied once and don't tell anyone to do anything with their position.
I merely post facts and people can judge accordingly.”

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Well, to me, the post below sounds suspiciously like telling people to do something with their position.

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c2645sg – 17/12/21 – 07:17
Quote – “We should all put limit orders in for £11.25 and £10.75.
Who's game? If enough people did it, we'd pretty much secure that price.”

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But the really interesting context for the post above are the posts below.
Both made in the weeks before the ‘we should all buy’ advice above.

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c2645sg – 07/12/21 – 08:35
Quote: “You bought back in knowing the Valkyrie is in serious doubt, and the court case still hanging over us?”

c2645sg – 14/12/21 – 13:43
Quote – “Bankruptcy might be possible now.
Vultures are definitely circling. Big problems ahead no matter what happens.
Thus will hit the SP and now they will need to compensate Merc in cash.
Oh dear.”

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So, just 3 days after saying bankruptcy might be possible, @c2645sg was suggesting buying into AML.

And, clearly, anyone who was “game” in Dec.21 would now be down 25% wouldn’t they?

Hardly, the noble “saves someone some money” crusade he claims to be on (see below).

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c2645sg – 03/03/22 – 18:56
Quote – “So, I feel like it's a bit of a duty to show up the charlatans for what they are.
All I get is abuse back, but if it saves someone some money then it's worth it.”

Let’s bring some scale into this.
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c2645sg – 04/03/22 – 09:25
Quote – “80,000 share sell just gone through, you selling already CC?
I reckon the bog boys are offloading because of all the contagion in the market.
All the Russian investments will be getting written off and other risky assets will be sold down to cover.”

c2645sg – 04/03/22 – 10:33
Quote – “Carpy keeps telling us 85% of the shares are tightly held, non-retail, who WHO is selling?”
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Ignoring the typo, how can 80,000 shares, or 0.07% of the AML total, count as a ‘Big Boy’ sell?

However, this is line with the pattern of @c2645sg emphasising any ‘large’ sells as newsworthy.
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c2645sg – 07/12/21 – 14:50
Quote – “Another 100,000 shares just sold £1.3m”

c2645sg – 10/12/21 – 13:32
Quote – “Another 50,000 shares sold at 1pm ish.”
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Whilst going out of his way to dismiss any large AML buys as nothing.
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c2645sg – 19/12/21 – 11:31
Quote – “No-one can say that £5m from Stroll is a 'large insider buy', it's tiny.”

c2645sg – 19/12/21 – 14:38
Quote – “Adding 5m to a near 1bn pot is peanuts.”
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So, 500,000 shares bought in Dec.21 are tiny/peanuts, but 80,000 shares sold in Mar.22 are ‘Big Boy’.
Doesn’t quite stack up with @c2645sg’s claims of just being here to balance out the debate, does it?

Similarly, when Invesco increased their holding by 6,000,000 shares, there was no speculation.
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c2645sg – 02/02/22 – 08:30
Quote – “Yeah, they just doubled their holding.”

c2645sg – 02/02/22 – 08:30
Quote – “Very few people have noticed Invesco were the big shorters now turned big longers!”
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Where’s @c2645sg’s ‘Big Boy’ theory for an institutional investor going long with 12m AML shares?

What are the Invesco team seeing/missing compared to @c2645sg’s own analysis?

On paper, Invesco’s holding is down over £30m in a little over a month, but appear to be holding.

Should this decision be referenced with terms like ‘fear’ and ‘emotion’ and ‘they were all warned’?

Last year, @c2645sg offered me £500 if I replied to him.
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Quote - c2645sg – 06/07/21 - 16:57:
“@AML007… £500 quid says you don't reply ;)”
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In order to raise £500 for Great Ormond Street Children’s Hospital, I took the time and trouble to reply.
However, @c2645sg didn’t confirm a £500 donation was made and my replies were all deleted.

Then, in Nov.21, @c2645sg offered to bet me “any money” that he knew how I would behave.
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c2645sg – 26/11/21 – 12:56
Quote: “Crack on though AML007, you'll be right.
I bet you any money your own fear will get the better of you and you start selling when the losses run into the thousands.”
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Well, I’m still here and haven’t started selling, despite my (theoretical) losses running into £000s.

So, for the second time, I’d like @c2645sg to donate £500 to Great Ormond Street Children’s Hospital.
Plus, add £500 to the DEC Ukraine fund for the crass “Putin will take Ukraine with ease” comment.
(You do know that unarmed civilians are being both targeted and killed, don’t you?)

Compared to ‘any money’, I think £1,000 is more than reasonable @c2645sg, don’t you?

But here’s the rub, @c2645sg was adamant that his shareholding had nothing to do with me.
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c2645sg – 26/11/21 – 10:57
Quote: “My shareholding is none of your business AML007, that's why I ignore your question.”
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Yet, he is happy to have a very clear double standard when it comes to my holding, isn’t he?
To be honest, I may have missed a few of these (I just copied & pasted as I went along).
But there were certainly enough to register on the man crush/stalker scale.
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c2645sg – 02/12/21 – 12:27
Quote: “AML007, still holding?”

c2645sg – 06/12/21 – 12:38
Quote: “AML007 still holding? ;)”

c2645sg – 13/12/21 – 12:04
Quote: “AML007, still holding?”

c2645sg – 14/12/21 – 14:52
Quote: “Topping up yet AML007?”

c2645sg – 14/12/21 – 16:27
Quote: “No sign of AML007 and his/her passive aggressive ignorance.”

c2645sg – 20/12/21 – 16:19
Quote: “AML007 is 20% down.”

c2645sg – 24/01/22 – 08:03
Quote: “AML007, how big is the loss now, £4k?”
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Given @c2645sg’s apparent concern, I should add that I did also top up at times, rather than sell.

There is not £1 that I have put into AML that I need any time soon, so I am happy to wait and see.
Am I happy that the SP is where it is? No, of course not.
Am I somehow gripped with fear? No, why would I be?
I am certainly not sleeping in a basement during air raids, or watching tanks roll down my street.
And I am very fortunate to be able to have ‘spare’ money to do with what I want compared to many.

Everyone else – Sorry, I know it is a mistake to ‘Feed the Troll’.
Unfortunately, despite the colossal waste of time, now

@TinyPie – There doesn’t seem much point in highlighting the errors, but still…

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c2645sg – 28/02/22 – 09:39
Quote – “But that is nothing in comparison to high interest rates.
Watch the debt and interest payments balloon from here.”

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c2645sg – 28/02/22 – 10:39
Quote – “2021, net debt rose to £892m, from £727m in 2020.
The CFO says the cash burn will be roughly the same for 2022.
So we can conclude that debt will rise by roughly the same again for this year.

That means it would stand at £1057 million!
1% increase in interest payments is an extra £10m per year.
2% increase is an extra £20m per year....
You get the idea.”

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c2645sg – 28/02/22 – 11:04
Quote – “These figures are all direct fro the AML company RNS.”

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Clearly, @c2645sg’s 2022 debt figure of £1,057m is not a fact in the RNS, it is his own conclusion.

Similarly, his interest rate increase warnings are also ignoring the facts in the RNS too.

As at 31/12/21, the “Loan Notes” stood at £1,074.9m and these have (high) fixed interest rates.

So, by what maths would a 1% base rate increase result in an extra £10m payment a year?
(Given it makes no difference to the fixed interest payments on the Loan Notes.)

Cheers, Paul. :)

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AML/final-results/15339038

2022 Outlook
- 75-90 Aston Martin Valkyrie programme vehicles are planned for shipment.
- There are currently no plans to issue additional shares to Mercedes-Benz AG until early 2023.

@MarkPartrick - Two people in a Valkyrie does appear 'cosy'.

Good luck, Paul. :)

D'Oh!

Links got broken.

See photos in this article.

https://www.evo.co.uk/aston-martin-valkyrie/17980/aston-martin-valkyrie-production-begins

@MarkPatrick – Sounds like a great trip. {Cool}

It also sounds like you know the difference between a ‘Body in white’ from Multimatic...
(As seen on the left of this photo, with some bits added to it.)

https://media.evo.co.uk/image/private/s--FXQx4vnb--/f_auto,t_content-image-full-desktop@1/v1636026104/evo/2021/11/Aston-Martin-Valkyrie_05.jpg

And a production line. ;-)

https://media.evo.co.uk/image/private/s--9kmAKF2j--/f_auto,t_content-image-full-desktop@1/v1636026107/evo/2021/11/Aston-Martin-Valkyrie_02.jpg

Your comparison with a motorsport assembly set up sounds spot on to me.

If anything, the 2,000 man hours being quoted adds to the appear to customers.

Cheers, Paul. :)

PS
Did you make a decision on the Valhalla?

@TinyPie – I’m also still here and topping up every now and then too (as funds allow).

So far, I’ve also stuck to my promise to simply ignore the trolling going on here.

But, “Just once for Becky”. ;-)

A few weeks ago, the quote below directed to @Vorlich001 by a regular poster on here.

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Quote – “You think you can dilute the company by 10% and expect the SP not to drop in value to compensate?
Deluded. Utterly deluded.

Show my one company in the entire history of the stock market where this has happened? Just one.
Then you have the ghost of a point. Until then, I'll keep showing you up for the fool you obviously don't mind looking.”

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Just one you say?

Close of business Friday, 04/12/20
1,824,014,450 shares @ 79.95p
Total value = £1.46bn

RNS 7am Monday, 07/12/20
Extra 474,657,287 shares to be added at 8am

Close of business Monday, 07/12/20
2,298,671,737 shares @ 81.65p
Total value = £1.87bn

So, this company was diluted by more than 10% and the SP did not drop in value to compensate.

I didn’t need to search the ‘entire history of the stock market’ to find this company either.

Given this poster also claims “I have a photographic memory, I NEVER forget.”

It would seem odd that they have somehow forgotten about Aston Martin? ;-)

Anyway, I’m off to bed now, as I have a very early morning run lined up.

GLA, cheers, Paul. :)

@TinyPie – Thanks for the link.

I liked the way Stroll corrected the interviewer about the “cash position”.

Even with the usual Mandy Rice-Davies caveat of “He would say that wouldn’t he?” :-)

Cheers, Paul. :)