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Could not agree more and I have been. Got some just under 1p and some more just over. Free money.
What a time to buy..just before news of GSA and development licence then NT2 test and rig news... not to mention 3D seismic results.
Go post there if you want to pump Orca.
Aminex are just about to enter their brightest point in the History of the company with the development of their 25% stake of a current estimated resource of 8TCF. Perhaps more time should be devoted to AEX on the AEX bb?
Roll on the GSA, 25 year development licence & FID
Yes, thats some of it, but more so, they want control over the upstream infrastructure, which they haven't got at the Songo Songo gas field or the SS processing plant.
Thanks for your reply, however I am not that familiar with the outcome of the 2015 Tanzanian oil/gas review. Does it relate to the fact that Orca can sell gas also directly to industrial companies at market prices and not only to TPDC or Tanesco?
In short, Orca's PSA which is due to expire soon and was issued some 20 plus years ago does not conform with the out come of the 2015 Tanzanian oil/gas review.
Please tell me what you don't like. When I am invested in a company, I like to see both sides of the coin. So any negative input, that I might not be aware of is appreciated information.
Yes well, I've been watching Orca as many years as Aminex and I'm inclined not to agree, so thanks but no thanks.
Bullfrog, you are correct that Orca's gas reserves are decreasing at a high rate and you also include the explanation for that, as reserves can only include gas that can be expected to be produced during the license period.
"The reduction in reserves was attributed to a 21% reduction in the time remaining until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence (3.8 year remaining at year end 2022 versus 4.8 years at year end 2021), which was partially offset by increased Company conventional natural gas sales and forecasts (which will be classified as Additional Gas (as defined in the Songo Songo PSA) (“gas sales“) until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence in October 2026)."
It will be more appropriate to compare reserves and company valuations when and if Orca gets a license extention. I think the odds are in favor of such a license extention, especially as Orca from 31st of July 2024 can stop deliver "protected gas" at cost.
I encourage all AEX holders to take a look at Orca as well. I think it offers good value at low risk.
Good post Bullfrog
Or is Orca so lowly valued because its reserves are running out? ORCA have BCF whereas Aminex and ARA are looking at reserves in multi TCF. We will have to wait for the CPR before we can start making real comparisons.
Total Proved (“1P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2022, were 141 billion standard cubic feet (“Bcf“) compared to 160 Bcf at year end 2021, representing a 12% decrease.
Total Proved plus Probable (“2P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2022, were 167 Bcf compared to 188 Bcf at year end 2021, representing an 11% decrease.
The reduction in Gross Company 1P reserves from year end 2021 to year end 2022 was primarily attributed to 2022 gas production and the number of years remaining on the Songo Songo Licence. The reduction in reserves was attributed to a 21% reduction in the time remaining until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence (3.8 year remaining at year end 2022 versus 4.8 years at year end 2021), which was partially offset by increased Company conventional natural gas sales and forecasts (which will be classified as Additional Gas (as defined in the Songo Songo PSA) (“gas sales“) until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence in October 2026).
The Company had record gas sales of 29 Bcf in 2022, representing an increase of approximately 42% compared to year end 2021. With the installation and commissioning of inlet compression at the Songas Gas plant in March 2022, the Company was able to contribute to a significant increase in gas to power generation caused in part due to drought conditions in Tanzania throughout 2022 and the commissioning of the Kinyerezi 1 Power Plant extension in Q4 2022.
Net Present Value of 1P future net revenue discounted at 10% was $147.2 million at year end 2022, compared to $177.8 million at year end 2021, representing a 17% decrease.
Net Present Value of 2P future net revenue discounted at 10% was $170.7 million at year end 2022, compared to $209.9 million at year end 2021, representing a 19% decrease.
The reductions in net present values of 1P future net revenues from year end 2021 to year end 2022 was primarily attributed to lower reserves at year end 2022 as a result of the reduced number of years outstanding on the current Songo Songo Licence and an increased need for future development capital to supply increased gas sales.
Some good news with the SCIR news release but this shouldn't have much of an impact. Hopefully, you took some profits on this irrational exuberance.
In comparison to Orca Energy Group, AEX is already priced as if it were in FULL production.
Facts: Comparative Peer Analysis
The ambition for Aminex is to arrive at 35 MMscf/d (25% of 140 MMscf/d). Orca Energy Group is well beyond this level, and still has little market recognition. Orca Energy Group is trading well below its cash per share level. If this is what you are hoping to achieve, you had best get ready to be disappointed.
Yield: Aminex 0.00% .....Orca Energy Group 8.6%
Production 2022: Aminex NIL ..... Orca Energy Group > 86.8 MMscf/d additional gas + 35.8 MMscf/d protected gas which is set to become unprotected July 31, 2024. The protected gas is sold at cost. The company makes no profit on the protected gas but that is about to change on July 31, 2024.
Revenue 2022: Aminex NIL ..... Orca Energy Group > US $118 million
Earnings per share 2022: Aminex US $ (0.10) ..... Orca Energy Group US $1.39
Shares issued: Aminex ~ 4 211 million ..... Orca Energy Group ~ 20 million
Cash per share: Aminex US $0.001 ..... Orca Energy Group > US $5.15 (trading at US $3.45)
Market Cap: Aminex ~ US $66 million ..... Orca Energy Group ~ US $68 million (setting Class A to Class B price)
Enterprise Value: Aminex ~ US $69 million .. Orca Energy Group ~ US $33 million
Aminex is overvalued in comparison to its 'true' peer.
It may be time to adapt. Aminex has a negative working cap, '0' cubic feet of production and '0' cubic feet of 1P gas reserves.
" Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature's inexorable imperative. "
H. G. Wells
"Now, as the SP is slipping back down he's going to have to cancel his order and plead for his deposit back."
Lol, RoJo, no it's only a little fishing boat, a worrier 175, will suit me and my mates just fine.
Yes there's a lot more interest in Aminex now, I think we all know the news that's about to drop over the coming weeks and months. 😀
The spread is hiding the buys today as it did yesterday. The trades at 1.26 and above are buys and at 1.22 they are sells. I have confirmed this with dummy trades. All trades so far are shown as sells except a very small 351 trade at 1.35p which is shown as a buy. A few of these small trades at 1.35p went through yesterday presumably to create an artificial spread.
News due any day now and perhaps like SCIR they could release it intra day.
Jetty - the SCIR deal closure was NOT a big deal to them - they (or the JV) would have ended up with SCIR's 25% whether the deal concluded or not!!
Anyway we have talked this to death - I am with Roger; the BoD and Sultan stated that in no way would the SCIR "deal" impact or hold up any Ntorya development, that it would run parallel but in no way would it impact Ntorya. Now I know that will not satisfy you conspiracy theorists but actually I really could not care less.
As reported after the AGM October was always the anticipated "deadline" for completion of critical milestones (with or without the SCIR deal) let's hope that proves to be the case.
Bye for now and GLA.
Im actually starting to believe you could be clinically insane
Anyway, it's Wednesday so we have prosciutto's weekly post to look forward to.
That will calm things down.
Posts are becoming a little fractious.
I do have some sympathy for BG. His excitement has been building of late and so confident was he that the golden future had arrived that he put his name down for the Ferrari he's always dreamed of owning.
Now, as the SP is slipping back down he's going to have to cancel his order and plead for his deposit back.
Hi Crusty, I hope you are keeping well. The SCIR deal was important to ARA as it took them from 57.5% to 82.5% of the gas here. That will make a big difference to them especially when making large investment decisions. We should be clear AEX has very little say what happens as we are very much the passengers. So when I said it was great news that the deal had closed it was through the medium of ARA now being keen to push on with one (big to them) hurdle cleared and AEX to benefit in turn.
You used the word transformational in one of your posts over what is to come, I agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment.
BG did you get out of bed the wrong side this morning? Ffs it doesn't matter. You can win if you like its no skin off my nose. I just reported what I've witnessed with my own ears. You will believe what you want too, no matter what I say. Chill out, have a beer 🍺
No Roger, whether it's relevant or not, it is none of Aminex's business, in transferring SCIR 25% of the RuvumaPSA over to ARA and in no way have Aminex been part of the the SCIR/ARA transaction negotiations, so they are not at liberty to comment on any part of the deal but on public factual facts. Though, It is my personal belief that ARA has just accomplished or been the prime beneficiaries of the sale of the century. But hey, one's man's loss is another man's gain, and I suppose it's what makes the world go around.
So much so that Ethiopia Plans to Earn $182 Million From Electric Power Export and Eyes Tanzania. They are in discussions
https://allafrica.com/stories/202310170102.html
That was my point BG, if it held so much relevance it would have been in there.
3: "You then quote an RNS. Do you see any reference at all to the Scirocco deal in that?"
Lol, of course you wouldn't, the SCIR deal is none of Aminex's business is it.
Second part was for "IC". Didn't realise it was eas separate thread. Sorry