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Positives are the TPDC building the pipeline now for use later this year but the bottom line, ARA have shafted AEX. Probably less than $20m total development cost until first gas. Which the only positive is that AEX will start to have funds to develop Kiliwani next year. But the bottom line is that we’re all here to make money by a sustainable increase in SP and that’s not going to happen until later in the year when we have a rig contractor and spud date or first gas, whichever comes first. A good increase in resources from the seismic results mid-year may give us a 20-30% SP increase, but it’s drilling that’ll push us above 2p.
And Aimster, what happens to the remainder of the $35 million carry unspent?
Oh yes I remember
In the event that the minimum production target of 40 MMcf/d is achieved prior to Aminex's 25% interest having been carried for the full $35 million, APT will assign one quarter of its share of profit gas to pay the unspent Carry amount until the full $35 million is realised by Aminex
In your opinion of course
Yup, from the July 2018 RNS:
"Subject to the detailed terms set out in the Farm-Out agreement, it is intended that the Farm-Out will accelerate the development of the Ntorya project, carry Aminex through to a minimum gross production rate of 40 MMcf/d and be self-funded through a full field development project."
"Fully carry Aminex for its share of costs up to $35 million in respect of its remaining 25% interest (post-transaction) (the "Aminex Carry"), which implies a potential expenditure during the carry period of up to $105 million for the aggregate 75% working interest held by APT and Aminex"
"In the event that the minimum production target of 40 MMcf/d is achieved prior to Aminex's 25% interest having been carried for the full $35 million, APT will assign one quarter of its share of profit gas to pay the unspent Carry amount until the full $35 million is realised by Aminex"
Nice negative thread title Aimster. Would expect nothing else from you. Best ignore it folks and let it slip down the list
Well guys ..it looks like the market agrees with me rather than the rose tinters. 1.06p as I post.
Glad you guys corrected Aimster, it doesn't look like he'll hold his own hands up.
HonestTom & Smudger63 as LTHs (from at least 2017) I would have thought you would be as p@ssed off as me by now.
Aimster, I'm not sure if any of your negative comments have had an impact on SP over the years (very much doubt it). If they have, I'd like to thank you.
Thank you, I have managed to collect more on the cheap.
Looking forward to first gas now, oh and a bit of drilling when a rig pops up.
Ta, lad.
If AEX has taught me one thing Aimster, it's patience. Todays rns tells us that that patience may reward us sooner than I thought.
A lot of excitement here over a damp squib.
My stetson is quite safe.
Oh, here he is....
Anyway, more importantly, I think proscuitto is an AWACs pilot.
AS some of you might know, the latest FXC-6 aircraft circumnavigate our planet on the edge of space. They are only overhead any part of our planet once every seven days.
Page 2
Calculating the earnings
Assume Ntorya is targeted October 2023 for production of first gas. One well brought online.
17 MMscfd, 25% interest, US $3.65 / mcf, 365 days /yr, > $4 million (G&A + minutiae), 4.123 557 000 Billion shares
((17 MMscfd * $3.65/mcf * 365 * 0.25) - $4 million)) / 4.123 Billion = US $0.000403 /sh ( 0.000336 pounds/sh)
Aminex Earnings =~ US $0.000403 /sh .. enough to prevent insolvency but just barely.
Now subtract the 2024 KNDL development costs. How is Aminex supposed to cover the development costs of KNDL? They'll need to negotiate a superb financial arrangement with Orca Energy. Also, the Ruvuma breast-feeding with the free-carry will last only so long and then the real costs start to kick in.
My estimated 2022 Earnings for Orca Energy is US $1.86 / sh. Next year, the ' Protected Gas' clause expires. They will receive cash for an additional 45 MMscf/d with a netback of ~ US $2.80/ mcf. Revenue should spike by about 50%. Orca Energy supplies ~ 71% of the total gas production in Tanzania and supports ~ 50% total power generation in Tanzania.
Orca Energy [est] US $1.86 /sh earnings. Aminex [est] US $0.000403 / sh earnings
Will Orca Energy make an offer for the KNDL stake?
If you want to know what Aminex should be trading at, multiply the earnings by 6 (half-way point between P/E of WEN at 9.5:1 and P/E of Orca Energy at 2:1). It will be touch and go right down to the finish line. If it arrives, the accelerated gas production is a lifeline for Aminex.
Ufufuo will tell you 160 MMscf/d, $4.00 /mcf, 15 P/E ratio ..... wishful thinking.
It is rather clever the way they have de-risked the 'Project' from a dependence on the spudding and outcome of CH-1. You don't suppose there might be another delay with CH-1 do you?
" Delays have dangerous ends " 1. Shakespeare.
The good news is that someone wants to keep Aminex alive. Having said that, you should prepare yourself for further dilution. Even though the float is already gargantuan, they'll require more money to cover some of the KNDL development costs next year and/or because the breast-feeding program at Ruvuma has ended.
Aminex is treading water and its nose is just barely above water level. How long must it continue to tread water?
Any quick stock price movement is due to pure speculation and will likely be met with inevitable exhaustion. TPDC would be wise to wait for the full 3D seismic interpretation before beginning with the pipeline.
Page 1
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year .. " Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR
NT-3 / CH-1 was to be drilled in 2018 and five years later ... " later this year ". Aminex has lived through a plague, and now fully understands why renaissance paintings are full of Rubenesque ladies lying on couches. With over 4.1 B shares, Aminex is the equivalent of a grossly overweight sumo wrestler. Aminex should set a weight loss goal: To be able to clip its toenails and breathe at the same time. Aminex is far from being a finely tuned athlete.
Mid-March is set for the interpretation of the 3D seismic. The interpretation of this 3D seismic will be a very important. You really don't want to hear phrases with ' isolated, small stratigraphic traps / pockets of gas.'
As mentioned before, NT-1, NT-2 were never an " extended well " test and now a two-week well-testing program is to take place. You should be worried about the one well. It is being re-worked but we'll see what happens here. You had best keep your fingers crossed.
The GSA for Ntorya Gas is to be finalized shortly but TPDC hasn't even hired a contractor yet for the pipeline. The picture of the pipe in the link posted by Smudger63 is the Mtwara - Dar es Salaam pipeline.
A further extension of the Ruvuma License shouldn't be a problem, but the exact drilling rig arrangements have yet to be announced.
The full 3D seismic results will be available by mid-year and will permit a full revision of gas reserve and resource potential for the field.
" It's all speculation " 1. RogerJolly, the happy-pill pusher. Truer words were never spoken.
Yes ... drill speculation and 3D seismic speculation. You're betting the farm on an inside straight. Victory is not within your grasp yet.
" Victory often changes her side " 1. Homer, Iliad, 8th cent. B.C.
The 3D seismic will ultimately be that binary decision point. Let's hope it's not Tembo2.
Please do tell me Prosciutto are you a Shareholder in Aminex ? Suddenly you have appeared here on the scene here with a very definite pessimistic opinion. I am I guess one of the longest surviving lth invested with Aminex plc and here quite simply because I believe there are excellent gas reserves at Ruvuma. My optimism has been bolstered and promoted by the recent actions of government, TPDC and Ara. They are aware of quite a great deal of the 3D Seismic programme by now, so this rather gives me a cause of optimism.
What basis do you have for your pessimism please ?
Mid March ... and no News Release
Even after adjusting for a hypothetical 25% of 17 MMscf/d, Aminex would still be seriously impoverished.
Options are very limited with respect to paying for the KNDL drilling costs.
Aminex has lost operator status for Ruvuma and will most likely lose operator status for KNDL. Your best scenario is that it could evolve into a " Wentworth" ... a lame duck.
In any takeover, if you can get a 30% premium above market as did Wentworth, you should quickly take it.
Ah, the ham-fisted ham-ster is on day release again LOL!
Yes, an absolute nointer, puts me in mind of that strange Range character over at the other place : )
Did Rojo only let Prosi-wotsit use his PC for ten minutes today or is he running out of garbage to type? I think the later.
Yes, the neg-heads have gone quite, they need a good dose of bad negative news, to cheer them up and bring them back out of their holes. : )
Oh smudge! Do you understand anything ?
The disappointing news will come soon enough BG.
I've been enjoying watching you all getting over-excited (again).
Like a coiled spring this, get that bucket and spade ready to help out with the pipeline RJ
https://www.africa-press.net/tanzania/all-news/madimba-gas-production-capacity-increases-by-two-folds
Lol RoJo. : )