What the fence-sitters (and the shorters) should realise, is that AB saying 'contracts take months to secure' is proven in the RNS for the contract awarded today, and that AFC has been working on LOADS of similar projects for the same or longer times, so the flow of contracts may just have hit their inflection point, leading to a flurry of orders!
£31m to get: Mass production in place To produce the 160kW system to demonstrate to clients that are waiting for it Field trial in Spain in early 2021 Get Alkamem scaled up and I to a commercial fuel cell
Fully Electric Vehicles on the increase05 Aug 2020 19:09
In another sign of growing EV sales (and falling ICE ones) around the world, the recently released UK car sales figures for July showed the ongoing fall in sale of petrol and diesel cars, and an increase only in full battery and hybrid cars.
Another interesting sign of the changing EV market (and the maturing of the full battery electric segment) is that BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales appear to now be cannibalising PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) sales, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
This has been seen earlier in EV sales figures from California, where EVs have reached close to 10% of all new car sales, but it appears the trend is now spreading around the world.
It seems, then, that BEVs are now meeting people’s range expectations and the ‘stepping stone’ of the PHEV is being abandoned in favour of the full BEV.
Sounds like a loaf of hype. It reminds me exactly of the RNS when AFC listed 13 years ago, claiming pretty much the same. But I suspect, like AFC had, they will have another 10-15 years to get it right, to get it mass manufacturable, and to get it cheap enough. If they listed today I wouldn't buy the stock for 5-10 years, having held (endured!) AFC for 12 years!!
Pointless argument though, as the vast majority of new clean vehicles are BEV. Mass manufacturers don't yet see a mass market for FCEV vehicles, only BEV. . You can invent a market and fill it if there are only one or two manufacturers willing to invest in it, and only willing to make one FCEV each, whilst the rest of their range becomes BEV. . The market for FCEV is really big commercial vehicles, but this is a far smaller market than the BEV is getting with cars, small vans, medium vans, a few large vans (eg Renault Master), and motorcycles.
IMO AFC will be 1bn plus in 2021. The ducks are lined up. . And on that note, AB said in the recent results RNS "Feedback from the market following our EV system launch and roadshow events further demonstrate market interest in our product. For most though, the AFC Energy fuel cell forms part of a larger energy portfolio strategy and as such, shareholders should be mindful of what would be a reasonable timeline between "enquiry" and "sale" as the solution provided by AFC Energy in this regard should not be seen as a commoditised consumable for which simple "buy" decisions can be made without taking into account other considerations. The announcement of our collaboration with Extreme E announced in July 2020, confirms this assertion where discussions first commenced in January 2020 and various configurations were considered to meet the specific needs of the application." . The point here is that a lot of other prospective buyers also started talks after the EV Charger roadshow, so must also now be at or near to the point of a sale, as they started looking at buying in January or before, some way back when it was launched, so I'd say this was more of a hint at sales than a warning of how long it takes to convert a sale.
Demand from employees will be converted to supply by employers. But many companies will need charging solutions because their local grid can't handle a fleet of vehicles charging up. And AFC have that solution.
This will be a billion pound company by the middle of 2021. In the recent fund raising the II's were falling over themselves to get stock in this company. By the end of this year we will have several deals running and a 160kW demonstration system. Then early next year the proving of on site AFC generator. And over the same timeframe, updates on Alkamem and mass manufacturing. So by the middle of 2021 those II's will have seen a lot more meat on the bones, and along the way they'll be hoovering up AFC stock like a Dyson on steroids.
For shipping, our fuel cells will have to wait a while to do propulsion, but right now they could easily replace the on board diesel gensets used for ancillary power. Think cruise ships and all the power that is used on board, it doesn't come from the propulsion engine, it comes from diesel gensets.
"Carnival is studying the use of ammonia on their huge fleet of cruise ships."