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Hi Crusty, I hope you are keeping well. The SCIR deal was important to ARA as it took them from 57.5% to 82.5% of the gas here. That will make a big difference to them especially when making large investment decisions. We should be clear AEX has very little say what happens as we are very much the passengers. So when I said it was great news that the deal had closed it was through the medium of ARA now being keen to push on with one (big to them) hurdle cleared and AEX to benefit in turn.
You used the word transformational in one of your posts over what is to come, I agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment.
The Scirocco RNS a week ago gives me great confidence that the Tanzanian government are positive and helpful and that this blockage will be gone in the next two weeks. I then expect everything to progress at a much faster pace.
"Scirocco is pleased to announce that the divestment of its 25% interest in the Ruvuma asset has been approved by the Tanzanian Minister of Energy. With this approval now received, all conditions precedent to the transaction are satisfied and Scirocco and its counterparty, ARA Petroleum Tanzania, can now proceed to complete the transaction in the coming weeks."
While I rarely comment on shares I do not own, I do feel invested in EQT as a former LTH and I watch the company closely and will re-invest when I feel positive about the future of the company. Please forget Altair and the sellers, it is the revenue figures (or lack of) that is depressing the share price. If I look back at my EQT posts in 2020, back then predicted revenue for 2022 was 66.0€m with an operating profit of 11.0€m. No wonder the share price was 10 times higher than it is today.
I still think Eqtec has a future but I need to see solid revenue and profit forecasts. With the big projects in trouble I would like to see the smaller projects coming live and generating hard bankable revenue. That would give me confidence to put my money here.
There is a massive amount of gas in the ground. The government are very keen to get this flowing and are prepared to invest in infrastructure. Aminex are sitting fully carried on 25% of the revenue. We are now within 12 months of cash hitting the company bank account. I am surprised that the share price has taken this long to react.
Yes, I remember. I bought in sub 0.2 and watched it 10 fold. The problem now is that increase was based on Northfork, Billingham and Deeside plus the company had a lot less issued shares and debt then.
I will be watching carefully as I love the current entry point but there has to be clarity where the ongoing revenue to pay for debt and salaries is coming from. The company needs a big steaming positive business case they can replicate and replicate.
Let's get this in context although AEX has gone up 20% in a week which is great, it has dropped a lot (it was over 1.5 last October). The dawning realisation that we are six months away from gas and therefore from money flowing may mean investors are realising AEX shares are a good place to be.
I have been in and out of EQT several times over the last 3-4 years. I am currently out but watching to see when to rejoin the fold. Lots to like here, good technology, wealth of projects including some big ones in countries with good infrastructure. I am confident that as soon as the money starts to flow this share should increase rapidly. As many have posted the negative is the timeframe for when EQT becomes cash generating and can move away from the cycle of dilution which all PIs hate (with the latest Altair slice it will be over 10,000,000,000 shares)!
Yes, this could have a massive impact on the revenue potential of the field. We are expecting a major upgrade on the published reserves figure and if that is coupled with a higher unit price from TPDC that will be fantastic. Clearly the global market price has risen exponentially.
Yes I was wary of a rollercoaster ride albeit with an upward trend. So far though it's been a fairly steady incremental increase. Let's hope it carries on that way because there is still a very long way (and rise) to go.
I am particularly glad that Aminex are not the operators and can only report what ARA choose to tell them.
ARA are the boots on the ground, will have lots of 3d siesmic and will have interpreted enough to confirm the location of the first drill (and possibly drills 2 and 3). The rig will be either there or on its way. That they choose not to report each individual step doesn't mean it isn't happening nor does it particularly worry me with ARA's history and reputation. If it does to you then maybe invest elsewhere and the best of luck.
Independently we have the boss of the TPDC saying gas will flow in 18 months, more bullish than either ARA or AEX and a very good indication in my opinion.
Given that all the gas prices are in US Dollars the potential UK revenue from our 25% has increased something like 10% in the last week.
So expectations are that gas will flow sooner than we originally thought, reserves will be higher than previously was said and we will get more money for the gas we sell.
Not a bad situation to be in.
KirSin as I posted a few days ago, "Director General of TPDC, Dr. James Mataragio said during the visit of the Wakurungezi Board that gas production will start after 18 months from now where 60 million cubic feet will be produced per day." So 18 months means cash flowing in the first half of 2024 not Q4 as previously thought.
Yes milk about £1.60, bread about £1.50. Wine not too badly affected.
Seriously it depends on when. Anything from 1.5-3p on a successful CH1 drill then there are more drills and a pipeline over the next 18 months (2p-5p) then gas and therefore money starts to flow and then more drills and more gas and more money. It will be very volitile short term over the next 2-3 years but I expect the share price to go up significantly over the longer term.
I was greatly heartened by the info BG put out on Saturday "Director General of TPDC, Dr. James Mataragio said during the visit of the Wakurungezi Board that gas production will start after 18 months from now where 60 million cubic feet will be produced per day." I have not heard such positive words from the TPDC and this more than anything else makes me bullish about the future.
Nice info Blackgold.
So 18 months means cash flowing in Q1 of 2024 not Q4 as previously thought, good news. Reading back through the corporate presentations the flow rates seem more aggressive too, again positive. Also nice to see the government and therefore TPDC getting to grips with the pipeline. With ARA taking over the SCIR slice this should really start to fly.
This has been de-risked as far it is possible to make any mining opportunity. People investing now should see a 5-10x return in just over two years, a lot better than any savings account or similar. The question is when to buy and when to sell the same as any investment.
In Aminex's case by 2025 there is profit, dividends and Kiliwani to consider. I think those who can schedule their investment over a three to four year period will see the best return.