Member Info for Jettydog

I posted on 30th Mar. "SCIR's holding has value but to whom? The obvious option is the Zubairs for both funding and control reasons. I am puzzled why this wasn't done in 2018 when AEX farmed out". Nothing has changed and there really is only one buyer in town.
To take blackgold's point it really doesn't matter to us as we are fully carried and funded to full production which is precisely why I switched from SCIR to AEX three years ago. Its just a matter of patience until production approaches and the share price rises accordingly.

No, I don’t think there is anything else but some short-term thinking going on.
At full production with $40 million plus net revenue this company is worth many many times its current value. I expect the share price to rise during this year as CH1 nears. To carry on growing next year as more drills and the pipeline development adds value until 2024 and full production level.
There is truth in the saying “familiarity breeds contempt” and many people will have looked at AEX in the past and decided not to invest. For the last five years in truth that has been a good decision but there is another saying “the past is not a good indicator of the future”. Looking forward with the money raised, global situation favourable and critically an operator who actually know what they are doing I am genuinely optimistic for the future here.
If investors look at AEX with fresh eyes and get over historic prejudice then there is lots to like. Some will, some won’t but the truth is AEX is entering a period of sustained asset value growth and that will take the market cap and share price up with it.

The price of gas ARA and ourselves is indeed fixed but what is likely to change is Tanzania's demand for the gas especially if they can export it at a vastly higher price. The various company presentation in 2018 and 2019 outline the pre-3d seismic forecast and that is for up to $40 million per annum net to Aminex at the then expected production levels.
ARA know what they are doing so the significant time and money invested in the seismic analysis is I believe designed to acheive payback in higher reserves and higher flow rates. What is the share price like to be in 30 months time when we start hitting full production levels?

I fully agree with Crusty, the recent placing clearly shows that. They raised just enough to keep the lights on until the Ruvuma money starts to flow and nothing else. In the RNS when they say "AET, the operator on the adjacent Songo Songo field, will be acquiring an extensive field-wide 3D seismic survey in 2022 with full-fold coverage of some 12.5 km2 into KNDL". This to me is a due dilligence "have a look for yourself" first stage towards a farmout, hopefully on a similar basis to Ruvuma i.e. give up 50% and control for a full carry.

From the RNS " the Company's estimated running costs for 2022 (before one-off costs and exceptional items) are approximately US$1.4 million". They have raised $4.4 million or 3 x $1.4 million plus a $200,000 contingency.
i.e. fully funded for 2022, 2023 and 2024 when gas will be flowing down the pipeline and cash and cashflow will not be any sort of issue.
If you need to make money sort term then probably look elsewhere, if you want a safe bet that will increase very nicely over the next two years, I think this is the place.
Regarding the placing discount this is sadly the hit cash poor, small cap companies take in raising cash for shares. It highlights the issue the SCIR have funding their share of the costs and why their market cap is where it is.

I absolutely hate when companies I am invested in dilute the shareholding. In this case it is hopefully for the least worst reason and AEX now are fully funded to production revenues. It is a massive benefit to people who were looking to invest but have seen the price creeping up in recent weeks as evidenced by 4,939,278 sold and 40,239,471 bought so far today.
The combination of 3d seismic and the CH1 drill are powerful pluses to come this year so the mid term looks positive.

To take Crusty's point $35 million spent over 4 or 5 years and under the Zubairs control is worth a lot less that $35 million handed over up front.
My point is that the clock is ticking and each step we get nearer to production and the money that brings will boost our value and our share price. Production revenue is worth well over $20 million a year to AEX from memory and that's before the new 3d seismic and AEX have all their ducks in a row to get there. The AEX shareprice has to go up, the question is not if but when and how much. Eighteen months is not a long time and world market for gas isn't going to go down.
I genuinely hope SCIR and more importantly their shareholders do well going forward. It feels more of a gamble with potentially bigger returns if things go well, I personally feel more comfortable at AEX.

Hi Edgar, I agree that SCIR's holding has value but to whom? The obvious option is the Zubairs for both funding and control reasons. I am puzzled why this wasn't done in 2018 when AEX farmed out. You may be correct that they have some great master plan and will pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat but I for one am happier with AEX, guarenteed funding and nice fat profits to come.

The farmout AEX did clearly set out both the costs and the value of the 25%. AEX got a carry of $35 million and a solution to the need for the operational skills and relationship with the government. I along with others were long time holders in Solo (including Chris) and saw that diluted to hell long before it became SCIR. At farmout stage I switched all my money from Solo to AEX as the carry made it a far safer bet. I cannot see a way SCIR get to fund the work and get to keep any significant revenue from their 25% and I guess neither can the market hence their current market cap.
Any company coming in has to find $35 million in operating costs, make a profit and agree a settlement figure with SCIR. Plus the company investing will not have control of the operation, for that reason I feel the eventual destination of the SCIR interest is likely to lie with the Zubair organisation.

I saw some chat this morning about the share price and whether it will hit 4p. I firmly believe the correct question to ask is not if but when and what needs to happen in the meantime.
If we stick to the plan outlined in 2018 when the farm out deal was done then production is now about two years away. With the projected revenue that will bring then 4p should be a poor and distant memory.
This year I want to see the seismic and the first drill done. That would make me comfortable that we are on track for 2024.
The sky high global gas prices are a positive too as it means production is a attractive option for Tanzania who will have a reason to get things done.
Patience is definitely a virtue in investment and I am confident that AEX are on a positive trajectory.

With 3D seismic results and a drill too I am optimistic 2022 will see a respectable share price increase.

I have always taken a longer-term view of this share. Looking are the original ARA buyout agreement the plan is full production in 2024. At that stage AEX will be very profitable and very valuable. I would welcome wiser heads than me to properly estimate that figure but a share price in double figures. Over the next two years AEX needs to go from sub 1p to the profitable price.
There will be a series of trigger points along the way, seismic, drills, reserve estimates but for me the critical trigger has already happened, the license renewal. If you take the longer-term view this has to be a great investment.

I expect to see a sustained run of positivity. Still plenty of good things to come.

We all know that with CH1 this share will be worth a lot more in a couple of years.
My only significant worry was what was likely to happen in the intervening period. I am more than delighted to get $1.85 million cash from the TPDC. If we can get KN-1 back in production and additional monies flowing then that is sprinkles with a cherry on top.
Gas prices sky high, money in the bank and KN-1 producing revenue, works for me.

Yes, bank borrowing was much lower at just over £2 million at the end of June ( £3.47 million same time last year) . Given the new income streams start Q4 2021 i.e. now I am very positive about the future.

When the money in the bank is higher than the market cap it should start going up.

The thing to note in todays RNS is the statement "this was mainly as a result of the Group's core business in mobile phone prepaid airtime reload and bill payment business activities in Malaysia". So the Mastercard business is added in Q4 and the SWIFT business in 2022. likewise the overseas expansion in region and in the UK should happen in 2022.
I am happy the core business is holding up well and remains profitable. The company has cash in the bank, low debt and clear growth plan for the next 12-15 months. Quite comfortable with that.

This is a long expressed desire to increase the margins on the excellent revenue figures and everything the company has been doing over the last 15 months relates to this. The partnerships with Moneygram and Alipay should show benefits in 2021. The partnerships with Martercard and SWIFT should show in H2 2021. The overseas expansion particularly in the UK should show in 2022.

I think £400 million is optimistic for 2021 but it should be fine for 2022. Especially so if the business money transfer side takes off thanks to the SWIFT deal.
Plus if they get the FCA license to operate in the UK I would say all bets are off on the size of the potential market. I would like to understand how the profit is holding up considering the big investments being made.

The market cap pressure will continue to grow with this share as revenue and profit continue to increase. We will have the 2021 H1 figures in a couple of weeks and hopefully they will kick the share price upward.
The company is clearly undervalued compared to most of the dross on AIM. They are investing in international expansion and the great new partnerships should be starting to contribute to growth. Over 3 million pounds of cash in the bank in addition to the other assets is a real plus too.