Member Info for Jettydog

Yes milk about £1.60, bread about £1.50. Wine not too badly affected.

Seriously it depends on when. Anything from 1.5-3p on a successful CH1 drill then there are more drills and a pipeline over the next 18 months (2p-5p) then gas and therefore money starts to flow and then more drills and more gas and more money. It will be very volitile short term over the next 2-3 years but I expect the share price to go up significantly over the longer term.

I was greatly heartened by the info BG put out on Saturday "Director General of TPDC, Dr. James Mataragio said during the visit of the Wakurungezi Board that gas production will start after 18 months from now where 60 million cubic feet will be produced per day." I have not heard such positive words from the TPDC and this more than anything else makes me bullish about the future.

Nice info Blackgold.
So 18 months means cash flowing in Q1 of 2024 not Q4 as previously thought, good news. Reading back through the corporate presentations the flow rates seem more aggressive too, again positive. Also nice to see the government and therefore TPDC getting to grips with the pipeline. With ARA taking over the SCIR slice this should really start to fly.

This is the first stages of a two year plus process to increase the value of this share. There will be lots of different news events happening all along the way. Best thing is to sit back and enjoy the ride.

This has been de-risked as far it is possible to make any mining opportunity. People investing now should see a 5-10x return in just over two years, a lot better than any savings account or similar. The question is when to buy and when to sell the same as any investment.
In Aminex's case by 2025 there is profit, dividends and Kiliwani to consider. I think those who can schedule their investment over a three to four year period will see the best return.

Happiness, positivity and bon homie from passing 1p. What it going to be like when we pass 2p?

planning and planing

It is a pleasant prospect. Aminex have around 92% of the asset from memory and satisfying the TPDC on progress shouldn't be too difficult (they could pay us some of the cash they still owe us for example). In 2023 and 2024 they could be planing, putting things out to tender, hiring staff, reviewing outsource arrangements.... Very easy to squirrel away 24 months (see Ruvuma).

I fully agree, Orca would not be doing this purely to be neighbourly. It has to be a case of them doing due diligence before putting a deal together. They have plenty of cash and if we have big reserves next to theirs it could be a sweet deal. Don't Scirocco own a small piece of this, that could work out well too as they are definitely in a place to raise cash quickly.
Of course Aminex could potentially leave it in the ground and in 2025 when they are flush with cash develop the field themselves. They would have to rehire operational staff to drill and run the thing. Nice to have options, makes it easier to make a more advantageous deal.

Maynard Keynes said “in the long term we are all dead” which is true but hopefully the vast majority of Aminex shareholders can last out the next two years.
There is a lot of impatience around with people desperate for the share price to “take off”. The share price will not stay sub one penny for two years then suddenly rocket up in the final weeks and months of 2024. As we get closer the share price has to react positively and move upwards. Yes it will move up and down, this is a public share but the long trend has to be upwards.
Aminex have proven reserves, licenses, high gas prices, experienced operator, helpful government, 3D seismic and fully funded. True full production is over 2 years away but then Aminex get a minimum of $40 million of revenue/profit annually for 30 years or more.
Key triggers are:- Reassessment of reserves from 3D siesmic - Q3/Q4; Successful drill CH1 - Q4/2023Q1; Work on the pipeline - 2023/4; More drilling CH2,3,4 - 2023/4; license extensions; price negotiation with TPDC.....
Added to that in Kiliwani we have the potential for a second gas field farm out (ideally with an experienced operator and a full carry).

It just needs a little more volume and it will rise nicely. They have cash in the bank, increasing revenue and new product ranges and operations.

The significance of todays RNS is we may by year end have the potential for a second gas field farm out (ideally with an experienced operator and a full carry). I would expect a better terms than we had from ARA as were pretty much over a barrel then (see SCIR) while we are in a significantly better place now.
If we have long term revenue streams from both Ruvuma and Kiliwani this will make our future even better.

Frankly what is more interesting is the share price continues on a steady upwards climb. It really doesn't matter to me whether it breaks 1p next week or later as I don't plan to sell at the moment and I am confident it is headed significantly higher than that.

If the SP reaches 4p by year-end, I'll will buy my own bottle of Chateau Lafite smudge. Glass held.

While anything is still in the ground there is always some risk in getting it out and sold. Taking that on board the Aminex ducks are all organising themselves in a very neat row. Proven reserves, Licenses, Prices, Exerienced operator, Helpful government, 3D siesmic and fully funded. The Scirocco share and contribution needs to be resolved reasonably quickly but we are less the four months away from the drill breaking ground.
A successful spud will mean Aminex are on course for huge future revenue which will transform the market cap and the share price. I have already said we have to push the board to return that cash to the shareholders. I doubt anyone will now be selling and I am looking forward to a steady rise in the share price this year and next.

Thanks SQ you are certainly right. Call me schizophrenic but part of me wishes them all the best and another part wants them to crash and miss out on a nice rise in AEX.

Hi Pete, living up to your Crusty description I see.
While I agree with your post on Monday that it's a successful drill that will make the real difference. I am slightly puzzled who would choose to sell now? Not too many would see any profit and even you must admit AEX is a interesting speculation over the next 6-9 months.

Total of two shares trades today for combined total of a mighty £3. Both exactly on the bid and ask which is strangely pleasing.

Big buys of 400 shares worth a tidy £28 though.........

It is interesting that the price has been rising steadily despite a 500k sell. Now that is cleared this stock should do much better I think?