Member Info for Jettydog

I personally couldn't care less if people are long or short term, positive or negative, that doesn’t matter at this stage. We have the asset, it is being monetized, its just about patience now.
The main thing for me is the PIs keep the board focused on their non operator status, don't waste any new cash and make sure they return as much money as possible to the shareholders.
A farm-out free-carry then watch the cash come in model is the way forward.

Hi, fully agreee both points.
We should see by 2025 between £20-30 million annual revenue. If the board maintain non operator staus and don't invest in anything new they can cash cow this and return nearly all that money to the investors (and if they try anything else we should stop them).
That is a dividend of 0.4p to 0.6p per share. If we look at dividend ratios in the market 5% is good so that equates to a share price of 8p to 12p.
As Gaslady suggests if Kiliwani North offers a farm out free carry then that is extra to the pot.

The share price needs to realign significantly over the next two years as we approach full production. Key points are:-
Reassessment of reserves from 3D siesmic - Q3/Q4
Successful drill CH1 - Q4/Q11
Work on the pipeline - 2023/4
More drilling CH2,3,4 - 2023/4
All these will help rachet up the price but there also needs to be agreement over SCIR and their 25%, license extensions, price negociation with TPDC.....

The company is resubmitting its FCA Application to provide e-money services in the UK. This is how they make their money in Malaysia so given the UK economy is 4 times bigger I wonder what the opportunity here is?

Full production is just over 2 years away but then Aminex get $30-40 million of revenue/profit annually for 30 years or more. That should mean a fantastic dividend and return for the shareholders.
The share price will not stay sub one penny for two years then suddenly rocket up in the final weeks and months of 2024. As we get closer the share price has to react positively and move upwards.

Has any other small to medium company on LSE ever had 9,381,682,212 Ordinary Shares in issue?

The Zubairs own 30% of Aminex from memory and as Alph points out already carry 75% of the financial risk of this whole project.
The SCIR deal calculation is $51 million spend over 30 months in return for $30-40 million annual return over 30 years. not a bad deal usless you are a Scirocco shareholder.
The same return calculation for us incidentally sat here at a market cap of £31m i.e. 1 years revenue/profit.

I didn't know I was psychic when I posted about dilution of the shares this afternoon. I think with 9,199 million shares out consolidation will have to be on the agenda.

I have been in and out of this share for a few years now. I think it is way ahead of companies in this part of the energy sector certainly in value.
The big issue regarding the share price is the dilution of the shares. I think 8,599 million shares is a massive number and some consolidation will probably be needed at some stage.

It is ridiculous that Mobilityone has such a poor market cap especially when compared to the vast majority of other companies on here. The 2021 show pre-tax profit of £2 million and reduced borrowings by over a million. So, clearing £3 million a year and £4.67 million in the bank the company is “worth” only £6 million?
Added to the above, the Group expects to commence the issue of MasterCard prepaid cards in the 3rd quarter of 2022 i.e. now. Hopefully the Central Bank of Malaysia will also soon give its decision for the Group to expand its money transfer business via the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication ("SWIFT") network.
Finally, the Company's wholly-owned subsidiary in the UK, plan to re-submit the FCA Application by September 2022 to provide e-money services in the UK. As this is with additional information based on the FCA's feedback I view this as a very positive step.
I know the market is down across the board but it is slightly crazy how undervalued this company currently is. Given there are only 106 million shares in issue I would like to see either a share buy back or dividend scheme as that would massively improve the share price for very little money. We will soon be in a situation where our market cap is less that the cash in the bank!

It's carnage out there, everything is taking a kicking. I have to say Aminex is holding up remarkably well.

I am not currently a SCIR shareholder but I do have a long history with Solo and fights with the board so I hope you will allow me to make a brief comment.
When the updated siesmic figures emerge and with the increased world price of gas the Ruvuma reserves will be worth more than previously thought. I suspect when the numbers are in by the end of the year a 25% share of the reserves will be worth well over $1 billion. So for Wentworth this is as close to a no-brainer as it is physically possible to find.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and clearly the time to farm out was 2018 with AEX when retaining a small percentage for a free carry from the Zubairs should have been a possibility. The thing AEX then did right is to give up any idea of being an operator. They cut costs and just focused on having enough cash to get to first gas.
I really hope SCIR shareholders get something out of this. I don't like the deal on offer but as its not my call any more best of luck to all the people here.

With the updated siesmic and the increased world price of gas the Ruvuma reserves will be worth more than previously thought. I suspect when the numbers are in by the end of the year a 25% share will be worth well over $1 billion. So for Wentworth this is as close to a no-brainer as it is possible to find. I do feel so sorry for SCIR (and Solo) shareholders who have been very badly served by their directors.
As for Aminex, having Wentworth onboard will make the process move much faster as APT will not have to wait for SCIR to scrape funds together to get each stage done. Our board has cut costs and put the funds in place to take us to first gas. What I would like to see then is the board keep those costs down, not invest in any new venture and direct the massive Ruvuma "cash cow" profits back to their shareholders in fat juicy dividends.

Edgar, I fully agree with your comment. I acknowledge it will take a while to full production i.e. just over 2 years but my hopes of a 10 fold plus increase in the share price may now be considered as conservative (e.g. recent Phoenix magazine article). What I will say is I can't see how this stays sub one penny for two years then suddenly rockets up in the final weeks and months of 2024. The various steps of field development and infrastructure, CH1 drill, subsequent drills, pipeline, price negotiation etc will have to have some positive impact on what the company is worth. It has to be an upward trend.

Pete, thank you for the kind invitation and though it would be lovely to meet up again but I am sadly marooned in another part of the country. I am not expecting a particularly eventful AGM – the board will say, “we have the cash to pay our inflated salaries until ARA start sending the big cheques”.
What I am interested in is the value predicted in 2024 when we hit full production rather than speculative guesses for 3D seismic or CH1. I expect a steady increase over time to the full production figure so it would be good to know where we are headed.

Pete you are right in balance sheet terms if you are an accountant. Investors however look at a company in terms of returns they can get in divident and share price growth and in that light the free carry and de-risking of the ARA expertise has a very significant value.
I am intrigued what people think the value Aminex will have when we do get to full production, pipeline in place with $40 million plus annual net revenue?

Hi Chris and BD the old Solo crew still around then.
The look like good buys, I can't see AEX getting much cheaper and there is plenty of upside.

If feel you make my point for me. Notably "SCIR is severely affected by the risk that because they have insufficient capital to service their Ntorya obligations". So our free carry and security is the difference in MC i.e. £31 million close to the value of the free carry with a little added for ARA experience no doubt.
We are now 6 months away from CH1 and while I would never wish bad fortune to anyone but I do hope the long term holders benefit and plenty of the "Johnny come lately" crew miss out.

Hi Pete good to hear from you, okay if what you say is true why is SCIR with identicaI reserves but no free carry valued at £4 million?
I don't think the significant upgrade that is ARA planning, management and government relationship is factored into our value. You are obviously right that "a fundamental shift in valuation is when the P2 reserves becomes P2 resources and that requires a GSA, pipeline and imminent and obvious route to market". If you look at the 2019 plans this is all there and should happen during 2023 and 2024.
On the oil front the mere presence of it seems to have a positive effect on other companies share price and I would expect to see some reaction here.
My point is I am convinced this will rerate significantly over the next two and a bit years but it won't happen in one "big bang". It will trend up and yes the share price will move about as the speculators speculate but against a steady increase in value. I am sure there are plenty watching AEX and thinking they have loads of time and waiting to jump in at the last minute and make a quick profit. Some will and some will miss out hence tick, tick, tick...

It's a matter of time now. This company is currently valued purely on the amount of the ARA carry and there is nothing for the $500 million plus gas reserves due to AEX. The 3D seismic should increase that and even a whiff of oil would add significantly.
Tick, tick, tick....