focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I wish we could edit a post if/when we make a mistake, also, is there anyway I can stop all the effing adverts that hinder and stop me using the site easily. It drives me round the bend lol 😀🤣
So Highyield, why don't you attend the AGM yourself and ask those questions? Or maybe you don't actually hold any shares and so cannot attend the AGM? So, if that is the case, why are you even interested in the answer?
Are you just thinking about our best interests?
"Profit gas is split between the license holders and TPDC on a 30/70% basis, meaning that when all costs have been recovered, the licenseholders will only get 30% of total gas revenue. "
Highyield, I don't know where you get this info from, but I'm 100% sure ARA would not agree to a Development Licence if it was beneficial and profitable to both ARA and indeed AEX as having a 30% interest. Yes all looking extremely positive
Is it time for the late afternoon surge? 😁
TPDC has a 15% back-in rights, high
First of all, I will congratulate all longterm shareholders in AEX with the recent share price performance. It has been a while, since I commented here, and I expect there will be an AGM comming up soon. I think it would be very interesting to get some additional information regarding the PSA (production sharing agreement). From my understanding of the PSA, revenue from gas sales are divided into cost gas and profit gas in a 60%/40% split. Cost gas consist of opex, development expenses and tax payments. AEX will recover their carry of 35 MUSD (or 32 MUSD following the loan from Eclipse) through the cost pool mechanism. Profit gas is split between the license holders and TPDC on a 30/70% basis, meaning that when all costs have been recovered, the licenseholders will only get 30% of total gas revenue. Of course there will always be some level of opex that will be recovered through cost gas. When Wentwoth's cost pool had been recovered in the second half of 2023, gas revenue just matched their high admin expenses. It would also be interesting to hear if any of historical exploration expenses for drilling NT1 and 2 could be included in the cost pool and be recovered. I have also noticed from discussions here on the board, that TPDC may take a part of the license. In such a case, how large and what will they pay for it. Just their part of future development expenses, or maybee some part of old explorationexpenses as well.
1.6 - 2P
THAT WOULD BE ONLY A 25% INCREASE.
WITH NEWS OF THE DEVLOPMENT LICENCE LANDING, I THINK WE WILL SEE SOMETHING EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT!
GLA...
Do you have a signed copy of that arrangement? 😁
Ahhhhhhh, still intending to leave us in peace at 4pence. At this rate shouldn't be long :-)
Perky - read it again!
This was a separate short-term offer.
You were all to eat your berets, trilbys etc if the SP didn't reach 1.4p by Dec 31, 2022. The SP didn't but none of you lot performed your part of the bargain, and so my offer reverted to 10p. Got it now ?
Anyway one and all, I will have to love you and leave you - I am out for the afternoon.
Here's to a close above 1.50p ! GLA
Well done CP I thought I had seen those figures.
Perhaps a 4p lunch party should be held 😜
Oh dear another ROJO error. Will leave at 2p and eat his hat at 4p.... dear oh dear
RoJo
Posted in: AEX
Posts: 3,340
Price: 1.08
No Opinion
RE: Production within 18 months?28 Mar 2022 20:25
Smudge
I'm not sure you've quite grasped the hat-eating arrangement.
I will eat my sombrero if/when the SP reaches 4p.
You (everyone else) will eat your berets, trilbys etc if the SP fails to reach 1.4p by 2022 year-end.
You wonder away Rojo. There will come a day, I am sure, when the sp remains flat or even drops back - then you can have another day of gloating and schadenfreude and remind us all that you "told us so". Forgetting, of course, that the sp is already up well over 100% in but a few weeks.
For what it is worth my view is that is can continue to rise until and unless there is an announcement, or it becomes obvious, that the Dev License is not "imminent". What happens once we get it depends largely on what information or guidance is offered at that time on the sequencing and timing of the remaining deliverables; also on the timing of that release in relation to the AGM. We all know what happens with long periods of inactivity and silence. Maybe ARA and AEX have cottoned on to that fact and will ensure that this is avoided going forward.
Crusty - yes, quite!
Lots of crucial elements missing (as I've pointed out before).
Can this recent rise be sustained I wonder ?
At the party RoJo we have to see you in real life 🤣
With rise to rns official confirming licence sign off should take us through 2p, then I suspect it will consolidate until drilling. I have noticed that there is not the same increases 'factored in' nowadays until revenues are actually realised, possibly a consequence of the global move towards net zero, but I remain confident AEX can get back to around 5p provided the Tanzanian government don't throw a spanner in the works. Risks still remain, albeit they are greatly reduced and once the pipeline begins to physically be laid I will feel much happier. My paranoia is the result of being a shareholder here for 15 years!
MM's have offered me 1.5525p for 1,000,000 though no quote for 2,000,000. So not out of the woods yet.
Thank goodness. The have recognised that they cannot resist the momentum - back to 1.50 -1.60p.
Only up another 6.90% today - disappointing eh Rojo? And to think, that is without transparency of the terms of the GSA, completion of the Dev License, aDrill contract, CH1 spud date, NT1 & NT2 workovers, pipeline initiation or completion and of course production. Just think how disappointing the sp rise might be once we have all of these things... ho hum.....
It would seem to me that 10p could happen - you just never know and therefore a better investment strategy, assuming the headhear is worthless, might be:
HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT
The quoted spread of 1.40 - 1.60p is just a sham. No trades below 1.50p for a good while now - the real spread, for anything of meaningful size, is 1.525 - 1.575p.
If that still holds for the close it would bode very well.
The hat-eating has always been if/when the SP reaches 10p.
I was planning to post the event on youtube but would be quite happy to eat it at a 10p party if you prefer.
Of course, I could throw the hat away now as 10p isn't gonna happen.
Sorry that was his sell price but think he mentioned hat at 4p before but that's now 10p as of last week. I bet Gas lady will know.
4p then 2p then a hint at 1.5p later denied and now back at 4p lol
Remind me please - at what price was RoJo going to eat his hat?