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Am I right ? Will Prosciutto continue saying we would be lucky to get the offer of a 30% discount and take it to get out ?
On the other hand has he got the gumption to write the 3D seismic results are in fact, Fake News ? His latest Missive awaited with interest......
Are you sure the development licence isn't simply a figment of your collective imagination ?
You leaving at 1.5 now Rojo? You keep lowering your sights.
Folks are going to miss you
Don't be silly bigpot !
but Mrs RoJo likes prosecco, so if you'd like to buy us a case I'd be most grateful.
Rojo is Prosecco
...and anyway, if your friend Stock|Cheque/Haggismcshaggis is right and the development licence is a done deal, it's had very little effect on the SP.
1.5p might prove to be a more than fair offer!
...and why not ?
A 30% premium would take the SP to circa 1.50.
Worth careful thought I think...
XD ??
You're expecting a dividend ??
Crazier than I thought you were perky
Proscuitto has been quoting +30% since about 0.5p....I guess it will still be +30% post 25 year development licence, so in the range of 2p to 3p XD
RoJo, hoping pal Proscuitto repeats his usual monologue tomorrow, "we should all accept a 30% premium to the share price" !
Crazy spread!!!
Bug bare of mine.
Tick down on the back of four trades totalling £31
With up coming drills back then, it was on every ones radar. I'd hazard a good guess it is mainly Lths who have picked up on the news so far. Once the RNS lands I expect it to grow from there and the more solid future plans they provide, the higher it's likely to climb.
Back in 2016 (prior to Brexit and COVID) this would have rallied to 3x to 4x the market cap already.
It is indeed a useful report. Don't forget that the 2 - 2.5p (or 2.8p unrisked) was based on the pre 3D seismic resource estimates of 763bcf.
As I posted the other day, when you consider the results of the 3D seismic, the valuations should be a lot higher. My post from the other day:
As the company’s stockbroker, it may be helpful to use the Shard Capital’s figures to derive valuations based on different scenarios. They published this research note on 29th Feb 2024: Is there a “big-picture” change in the cards? (research-tree.com)
In the report, they give an unrisked valuation of 2.8p for a scenario where Aminex has resources of 763bcf and produces at a rate of 140mmscfd. For a scenario where we have resources of 1.7tcf and produce at 250mmscfd they give an unrisked valuation of 4.6p.
Their earlier report from May 2023 (The time has come! (research-tree.com)) had practically the same figures (2.7p and 4.5p respectively). When considering potential outcomes of the – then yet to be confirmed – 3D seismic results, on p.6 of that report, they state:
“as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed”.
They then outline two scenarios based on different rates of production. Long story short, they say that 3D seismic results of 2TCF would justify valuations 4 to 6 times greater than the share price at the time of the report – which was 1.03p. So, somewhere between 4.12p and 6.18p.
Obviously, the 3D seismic has confirmed a good likelihood of there being 3.45tcf associated with just the existing NT1 and NT2 wells – and 7.95tcf aggregated including CH1.
If 2TCF justifies between 4.12p and 6.18p…
3.45TCF would justify between ((4.12 / 2) x 3.45) 7.2p and ((6.18 / 2) x 3.45) 10.66p
If CH1 brings us to 7.95TCF that would justify ((4.12 / 2) x 7.95) 16.38 and ((6.18 / 2 x 7.95) 25.57p
So, in summary, the 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2 may justify a valuation of between 7.2p and 10.66p per share. If CH1 brings us to 7.95tcf, that would increase that to between 16.38p and 25.57p per share.
There are lots of variables at play here – for one of those, you may be interested to know that the Shard figures are based on a presumed gas sales price of $3.9/mscf – probably conservative.
Just a yardstick. I hope this helps
It’s worth rereading the report highlighted by gaslady, this is an extract:
“ Valuation – We have adjusted our model for the updated production schedule (first gas now
expected in 1H25) and we have moved our valuation forward by a year. This has had an
offsetting effect to our valuation, resulting in an unchanged fair value range for the shares of
between 2.0-2.5p/share.
We believe that the recent pullback in the share price (likely due to delays in the first gas
production schedule) provide a good risk/reward opportunity, especially given the future
potential in next 12-24 months, highlighted by today’s announcement.”
Nothing is misinterpreted in this statement that's been published on several websites including a version they translated into English that says the same thing.
"In the small natural gas sector, he said, effective management is underway where, under the Sixth Phase Government, it has been granted a licence for the extraction of natural gas at the Ntorya well in the Mtwara region, with the last licence being issued in 2006."
The pertinent words being 'HE SAID', which means it is quoted directly from his speech at the Energy Convention.
https://youtu.be/-McXXaPA_60?si=XXNVYb2jDK7AygH9
Yup. definitely agree
Chillout bobat, for every seller there's a buyer. Not a bad thing to circulate some stock to new buyers.
The Licence approval in Parliament has to go through the Tanzania Government process of BEING ISSUED, to the operator, ARA Petroleum Tanzania, upon which the operator can then advise Aminex that IT HAS RECEIVED THE LICENSE.
Aminex cannot RNS anything until it has been advised by the operator that the License is in in their possession.
We know Tanzania Government processes are slow, so this could take more than a day or two, but the significant posts by Aminex on it's Twitter account indicate they KNOW that it's on it's way, but as I say, they cannon STATE IT AS FACT until it becomes A FACT when ARA take possession of the Licence paperwork.
Dkt. Doto Biteko is not just the Deputy Prime Minister, no, not just that, he is also the Minister for Energy, so if anyone knows the Licence has been granted, it is him, and he's the one that told the press
Winalot,
Good point a out the results deadline.
I don't believe this statement is correct though "With ARA being non listed, if they don't want news out then it wont be put out, regardless of whether AEX legally have to."
ARA can't dictate what AEX must legally advise it's shareholders just because ARA is a private company.
If there's a non disclosure agreement in place then what ARA tell AEX can be kept secret under that agreement.
AEX would be misleading the market if they stated prior to ARA receiving the license, that it has been granted, because the process of the issue of the license to ARA and receipt of it by ARA must be fully completed before AEX tell the market.
AEX could advise the market that they expect the licence to be issued soon, there is nothing wrong with saying that, and ARA cannot stop AEX from saying it.
AEX are, in my view, using Twitter to wake the market up to what they know has happened and what they expect to happen soon. If investors don't want to grab the opportunity of loading up before the news hits, that their prerogative.
I am not scare mongering. I am invested in here. Just writing whats going through on Level 2. We should be over 1.50.
Bobat123 scaremongering?
4m shares is 0.095% of the stock.
Laughable!!!!
Calm down bobcat
I like the February2024 shard capital report...:-)
https://aminex-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Shard-Capital-Aminex-Ruvuma-29-02-2024.pdf