Member Info for Ufufuo

I agree Fowler. In my view:

August = earliest possible

September = realistic and probable

October = at very latest

M&P ALREADY DRILLING THEIR FINAL WELL

A great find from Carl on Telegram yesterday. This article confirms that M&P is currently drilling the third and final well of their 3 well campaign (KASA 1-X):

https://dailynews.co.tz/mnazi-bay-drilling-project-delivers-320-jobs-20bn-in-local-contracts/

“Engineer Mwose said the project, which involves the drilling of two production wells and one exploration well, began on February 6, 2026. By June 5, 2026, drilling of the two production wells, MB5 and MS2, had been completed, while drilling of the third well, KASA-1X, was still underway”

This aligns with satellite imagery which shows the set up of the rig for KASA was in progress as far back as 18th May and looked substantially in place by 21st May.

TPDC MANAGING DIRECTOR CONFIRMED WE WILL USE THE SAME RIG

On 11th March, the Managing Director of the TPDC confirmed that we will be using the same rig directly after the M&P campaign.

So, we are now on the final countdown. M&P just need to finish the final well that is in progress and the monster rig will then head down the road to us.

IMPLICATIONS FOR LIKELY CH1 SPUD WINDOW

Based on available technical data, we can map out a highly realistic timeline for when the rig should arrive at Ntorya:

KASA COMPLETION:

As a complex directional exploration well with a 3,000m horizontal step-out, Kasa is probably a 65 to 80-day drill (considerably longer than the first two wells in M&P’s campaign). Having probably spudded end of May / start of June, M&P is probably on track to release the rig between at some point during August.

RIG MOVE & SET-UP:

Moving an 8,000m-rated heavy rig down the road to Ntorya will probably take 3 to 4 weeks for teardown, transit, and rig set-up. Since Aminex has already commenced civil works at the CH-1 pad, there should be no site delays.

CH-1 SPUD DATE:

This makes a mid-September 2026 spud window highly probably (with late August possible if M&P finishes flawlessly).

So, we are looking at a likely 3-month countdown to the drill bit spinning at CH-1. Crucially, this timeline aligns with the target date for completion of the pipeline and first gas from NT-2, meaning we get an extraordinary double whammy of first production in nearly a decade and the much anticipated CH-1 drill happening.

The next ~3 months will change Aminex forever. It is going to be an exciting ride!

Following on from yesterday's post regarding Tanzania's FYDP IV, I have updated my Kinyerezi III satellite imagery video to include a more recent image. I am pleased to say that construction work at Kinyerezi III continues to advance.

FYDP IV contains some very powerful targets for the period to 2030/31, including:

• Increasing power generation capacity to more than 15,000 MW

• Increasing onshore natural gas production to 1,000 MMSCFD

• Increasing domestic natural gas utilisation to 800 MMSCFD

For anyone following Tanzania's energy sector, Kinyerezi III is an important project in that context.

The Tanzanian Government has confirmed that it is now planned as a 1,000 MW gas-fired power station. At that scale it is set to effectively double Tanesco installed gas fired power generation in Tanzania and it becomes one of the most significant drivers of future domestic gas demand.

It is deeply encouraging to see the connection between strategic targets set out in FYDP IV and physical infrastructure now being developed on the ground. The policy objectives are transformational in scale. Projects such as Kinyerezi III provide tangible evidence that the infrastructure required to support those objectives is already taking shape.

The updated video can be viewed here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15lrcfM8F5mzQ_PAbm7yL4h5O2jBGV-nX/view?usp=drive_link

Hi Northern,

Yes. On 28 April, they advised that:

o 85% of route clearing activities have been completed.

o Approximately 50% of pipeline welding has been completed.

o Trenching activities are scheduled to recommence in May 2026, following the planned suspension due to the current rainy season.

Happily, they are back underway with the pipeline and making great progress - as confirmed by satellite imagery.

Rig contract due by end of June and could land any day now

Great article just published confirming significant progress with Tanzania's natural gas infrastructure.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE ARTICLE:

"THE Tanzanian government plans to construct 10 new CNG stations across the country as part of efforts to promote cleaner and cheaper energy for transport."

"TPDC is finalising procurement for five mobile CNG stations"

"Discussions are ongoing with six private companies to develop mini-LNG projects to convert natural gas into liquid form for transport"

"In regions already served by the gas pipeline, including Mtwara, the government is prioritising household and institutional gas distribution through pipelines"

THOUGHTS:

The CNG expansion is highly encouraging. Adding these 10 fixed and 5 mobile stations will almost double the footprint, raising the number of stations from 18 to 33!

Add in the 6 companies planning mini-LNG projects, and it's clear that domestic demand and off-take capacity are expanding rapidly. This provides a brilliant backdrop of domestic demand for Ntorya's commercialisation.

Full article here:

https://dailynews.co.tz/tanzania-to-construct-10-more-cng-stations-to-boost-cheaper-energy-for-transport/

Up ~ 10% in the past month

Up ~ ~70% in the past 6 months

Up ~ 95% in the past year

Up ~ 215% in the past 5 years

Rig contract due within the next month. Then huge catalysts of production starting in 4 months and the much anticipated CH-1 drill.

This is just getting started!

Morning everyone. I think a key piece of Tanzanian policy may have passed some by, so I wanted to share a few critical details from the draft "Fourth Five-Year Development Plan 2026/27 – 2030/31" (FYDP IV).

FYDP IV receives binding approval concurrently with the 2026/27 National Budget. From July 1 2026, it becomes operational policy dictating national budget allocations and ministry spending. It has some very powerful stats for us.

POWER GENERATION:

The draft lifts capacity targets to over 15,000 MW by 2030/31. This is materially above the previous PSMP 2035 target of 12,225 MW. The near-term target is now 22.7% higher AND brought forward by 5 years.

ONSHORE GAS (p.151):

The plan targets increasing onshore natural gas production to 1000 MMSCFD by June 2031. With current capacity below 300 MMSCFD, the reality is a target to more than triple onshore production in the next 5 years. In-country utilization is targeted to increase from 290 to 800 MMSCFD.

MTWARA LNG:

Crucially, point 3.i specifically targets fast-tracking contract negotiations for the Mtwara LNG Project by June 2027. Most here know this project:

• Plans 1.5 to 3 MTPA initially (scalable to 9). A 3 MTPA plant requires approx 430-450 MMSCFD of feedstock gas.

Includes its own 100 MW (scalable to 300 MW) gas fired power plant.

• Includes regional LNG/CNG distribution to Kenya, Zambia, DRC, etc.

• Lists its two PRIMARY supply sources as 1) Ntorya Gas Field (Ruvuma) and 2) Mozambique Offshore Area 1.

INFRASTRUCTURE:

Page 24 states that downstream distribution cannot meet rising industrial demand. To fix this, the "Natural Gas Infrastructure Expansion Programme" will add 1,200km of pipeline by 2031, plus new storage and CNG stations to promote investment in gas-based fertiliser, petrochemicals and power.

REGIONAL HUB:

FYDP IV includes explicit targets for Tanzania to become a Regional Gas Trading Hub supplying 3,500 MMSCFD by 2031.

Tanzania's gas ambitions have been dramatically ramped up.

CONCLUSION:

The targets for onshore production are incredibly encouraging, and fast-tracking Mtwara LNG proves it is a top government priority and it underpins scenario planning for potentially drastically increased production if CH-1 is successful and proves up that aggregated 7.95 TCF for Ntorya.

Unreasonable? Yes. Unreasonably low! 😊 This should help:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jZg341SxxBZuu6UZzcY61BzrT7JFrw79/view?usp=drive_link

That is a valuation based on clearly laid out and conservative modelling assumptions. Using real world data, much of it provided by Aminex or ARA themselves. Using an industry standard model to generate share price valuations (Discounted Cash Flow / Net Present Value).

Clear, transparent, conservative data and assumptions, fed into an industry standard valuation model = realistic and robust valuations.

Utter nonsense. Anyone with any sense can see right through you.

Blue day today. Many more of those to come 😉

Your motivation is clear and obvious.

Anyway no matter. Rig contract within next ~ 5 weeks. With the civil works clearly well advanced, all long lead items on site and our rig being set up for its final drill just down the road before heading to us, it’s looking like we’ll see that contract sooner rather than later.

Production in 4 months too.

Huge catalysts looming large right in front of us!

Well said P26!

Still not seeing the basis for your valuation. Again, here’s an example for you:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jZg341SxxBZuu6UZzcY61BzrT7JFrw79/view?usp=drivesdk

Looking forward to seeing yours

The market IS buying!

Up over 250% over the past 5 years and up more than 110% over the past 12 months.

Please do share the rationale for your valuation.

If you are going to put a valuation out there, back it up

With some proper rationale.

This is going north of 10p during the CH-1 drill. Here’s my rationale:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jZg341SxxBZuu6UZzcY61BzrT7JFrw79/view?usp=drivesdk

Now show me yours

Up over 250% over the past 5 years and up more than 110% over the past 12 months.

The market has been slowly waking up.

Production in 4 months should ensure continued upward momentum. Plus the CH-1 drill of course.

Talk of Aminex being taken out sub 3p is baseless. ARA have protected Aminex through the difficult years. They could easily have taken Aminex out then. Everything points to them wanting Aminex around and to prosper.

We have an incredible few months ahead of us!

It is amazing that we can now look forward to production starting in around 4 months time.

No longer do we need to think in terms of “will this year be our year?” or “hopefully next year”. More than that, having a near term firm date, being pushed hard by the Deputy PM and Energy Minister feels amazing. With all the pipe sections on site, 80% of the pipeline route cleared and 50% of the pipeline welded already, the deadline feels ever more secure.

The CH-1 drill will be hugely significant event. Potentially more than doubling estimated GIIP for Ntorya. CH-1 is like a buried treasure chest of epic proportions but the pipeline is a multi-faceted gift. A gift that keeps on giving. It’s the golden goose! It gifts us:

• Confirmed commitment from the Tanzanians – the fact that they are stumping up ~$50m for the pipeline is huge. It demonstrates absolute commitment to the project.

• Security and significant revenues – after so many years of financial fragility, the pipeline gives Aminex security and enables significant revenues to build wealth and to develop other assets.

• The key for us to book reserves and instantly transform our balance sheet – it will allow a massive transformation in Aminex’s value as it is the final piece of the puzzle to allow us to book our share of the multi TCF Ntorya gas field as reserves.

A $50m commitment from Tanzania to the project. On track. ~4 months away. Not a lofty aspiration or a vague promise. 34km of steel pipe on the ground in Tanzania. 50% welded already.

The share price has steadily risen over the past couple of years as crucial milestones have been ticked off including completion of the farmout that secured the $140m gross free carry, the completion of the largest onshore 3D seismic campaign in East Africa, the signing of the Gas Sales Agreement, the award of the 25 Year Development License, the signing of the pipeline contract, the pipeline being manufactured and delivered and ARA being seen issuing tenders for upcoming drilling and production.

Gains so far have been driven by those developments. Logic and history suggest the rise in share price will quickly gather momentum as we approach the big prizes of production/revenue/reserves and the CH-1 drill.

Gas infrastructure rollout continues at pace. The bit about agreements with more than 5 companies to distribute gas via Mini LNG vehicles is particularly interesting.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DYPwvfXoxJ2/

The government has stated that it is continuing with the implementation of natural gas distribution projects in homes in Mtwara, Lindi, Pwani and Dar es Salaam regions, with Nanyamba Constituency among the areas expected to be reached by the service.

This was stated in Parliament by the Deputy Minister for Energy, Salome Makamba, while responding to a question by Nanyamba MP, Abdallah Dadi Chikota, who wanted to know when the natural gas distribution service in homes would start in the constituency.

Responding to the question, Makamba said that by April 2026, a total of 2,512 homes have already been connected to natural gas infrastructure in the regions implementing the project.

He also said that another 1,000 homes are expected to be connected in the 2026/27 financial year, while the implementation of the projects continues to be expanded in various areas of the country.

At another stage, responding to a supplementary question regarding the involvement of the private sector in domestic gas distribution, Makamba said the government, through TPDC, continues to expand natural gas pipelines and has already entered into agreements with more than five companies that distribute gas through Mini-LNG vehicles.

There’s a narrative sometimes pushed on this board that Scirocco, Orca, and Wentworth were "forced into submission" by the Tanzanians. This is a total distortion history. Here is the reality of what happened with those companies:

1. SCIROCCO ENERGY (Formerly Solo Oil)

After Neil Ritson retired as the company’s Executive Chairman in 2018, the new management abandoned the Tanzanian oil & gas strategy to pivot into European renewables and biomass.

The market disliked the pivot - the new investments did not generate the required returns, and the share price was badly impacted.

In May 2024, they delisted from and officially entered into a Members' Voluntary Liquidation (MVL) to wind up the company and distribute whatever cash was left to shareholders.

Tanzania didn't kill Scirocco; Scirocco's board did so with a failed strategic change of direction.

2. WENTWORTH RESOURCES

Far from being "forced" out, the Board negotiated a large cash exit for themselves and shareholders. In 2023, they were acquired by Maurel & Prom (M&P) for 32.5p per share—a 62% premium (putting aside the cash they held as M&P obviously wasn’t going to pay a premium for that).

Under their Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), Wentworth had spent years enjoying strong cash flows because they were reclaiming "historic costs" (i.e. a large percentage of revenues went straight to them to pay back their initial investments).

However, by late 2022, Wentworth’s CEO Katherine Roe publicly warned that their "cost recovery" pool was running out. Without those historic cost recoveries, revenues in 2023 were going to drop significantly. At the same time, the Mnazi Bay field needed fresh investment to keep production up.

Meanwhile, Katherine Roe had 6,543,278 unvested Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) Options. She knew the buyout would cause these to immediately vest as it would trigger the "Change of Control" clause. This is what the buyout meant for her financially:

Vested Options Triggered: 6,543,278 options × £0.325 = £2,126,565

In addition, she had existing personal holdings of 1,383,475 ordinary shares.

Total Holdings: 7,926,753 (Options + Shares)

Total Payout: 7,926,753 × £0.325 = £2,576,194

Total profit generated purely by the 7.5p buyout premium: 7,926,753 × £0.075 = £594,506

So, she made millions by ensuring the options vested. She compounded her gains as her options and her existing personal shares were all cashed out at the buyout premium.

To maximize her LTIP options, Katherine Roe needed to achieve a 16% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)) over the three-year cycle (roughly a 56% total return). Hitting only the 8% minimum threshold would have seen 75% of her options expire worthless.

Rejecting the M&P buyout would have required her to find a way to increase Wentworth’s share price by 56% by 2024/2025—a mathematical impossibility given that historic cost-recovery cash flows were drying up and the company was facing a $25.6m bill (32% of $80m) for the upcoming Mnazi Bay drilling campaign.

Some might wonder if Wentworth was simply too broke to pay their ~$25m share of the drilling costs. They weren't. On the eve of the takeover, Wentworth had zero debt and $30.2m in the bank (with routine operational payables fully offset by routine receivables). They had the cash to drill the wells.

But if they had spent that $25m, they would have drained their treasury precisely as their cost-recovery cash flows were dropping. They would have been forced to suspend the dividend, which would have tanked the share price and wiped out the CEO's 6.5 million unvested options. The Board didn't sell because Tanzania forced them out or because they were broke; they sold because draining the treasury to actually invest in the field would have destroyed their personal executive bonuses. They took the 30% premium, cashed out,

The deal was so lucrative for the Board that major shareholders like Fidelity actually voted against it, arguing the Board was taking a quick payday instead of holding onto a valuable Tanzanian asset.

It was a corporate buyout, plain and simple.

3. ORCA ENERGY

Whilst Scirocco and Wentworth are cut and dry cases, the Orca situation is more complex and nuanced.

UNIQUE PSA – ROOT OF DISTRUST & STRAINED RELATIONS

To understand why Tanzania came to view Orca with such deep suspicion—and why companies like M&P and Aminex don't face these same issues - you need to start by understanding the 'Protected Gas' part of the Songo Songo contract.

Orca’s contract is unique in Tanzania, particularly because they Orca were required to supply up to 45 MMscfd of gas to the state on a 'no profit, no loss' basis. As this gas shared the same infrastructure as their profitable 'Additional Gas,' it created a potential cost-allocation loophole. In 2011, the Tanzanian Parliament accused Orca of allocating a disproportionate amount of the shared field costs onto the commercial ledger (by doing so, Orca could recoup those costs from the commercial revenues before the state got its cut, effectively using accounting to reduce the state's share of profit).

Orca's Q3 2011/2012 Corporate Report:

"On 18 November 2011 the Parliament of Tanzania received a report from a special Parliamentary Committee that accused Orca’s subsidiary PanAfrican Energy Limited of certain irregularities and recommended that PanAfrican be removed from the Songo Songo Production Sharing Agreement... It is understood that the critical issue was whether or not PanAfrican had conformed to the terms of the PSA with respect to the allocation of costs."

This unique set-up resulted in distrust and a strained relationship.

PERCEIVED GREED

As was noted in recent Tanzanian press, Orca also apparently had a reputation for being greedy with dividends and not sufficiently interested in developing the Songo Songo field.

Aggregated Cash Extraction (2018 - Q1 2025)

According to Orca's Q1 2025 Investor Presentation, over this 7-year period, the company extracted a vast amount of cash out of Tanzania:

• Total Shareholder Returns: $129.0 million (USD)

• Dividends Paid: $52.5 million (USD)

• Share Buybacks (NCIBs and SIBs): $76.5 million (USD)

Year-by-Year Reinvestment Deficit

• 2018: Capex $5.8m, $16.1m returned to shareholders (large special dividend).

• 2019: Capex $4.2m, $9.0m returned to shareholders.

• 2020: Capex $27.0m, $45.7m returned to shareholders.

• 2021: Capex $26.6m, $38.2m returned to shareholders.

• 2023: Capex $8.1m, $6.1m returned to shareholders.

• 2024: Capex $27.5m, $5.9m returned to shareholders.

• 2025: Capex <$1.0m (down 94% YTD as of Q3), ~$20.0m returned to shareholders (inc. $14.4m special dividend).

January 24, 2020 press release titled "Outcome of Strategic Review Process” detailed a new strategy with three core pillars. One of those core pillars was:

“Return of Capital: The return of retained cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and/or dividends”

Directly beneath that point, it explained how they were going to execute that "Return of Capital" pillar:

"In conjunction with the announcement of this strategy, the Company intends to return a portion of its excess cash to shareholders through a substantial issuer bid. See “Return of Capital and Announcement of Substantial Issuer Bid”

“The Company also plans to introduce a dividend policy in the first half of 2020 providing for regular dividends determined on an annual basis, and will assess from time-to-time incremental returns of capital to shareholders relative to the merits of available investment opportunities."

In the same press release, then-CEO Nigel Friend stated: "It is now the right time to return a portion of our retained cash back to shareholders through a substantial issuer bid. The prudent management of capital and regular distributions to our shareholders will continue to be a core part of our strategy"