Member Info for Ufufuo

Pre NT-2 drill, estimated resources for Ntorya were 0.155 TCF GIIP. Current estimates are 16.4 TCF GIIP for Mtwara (including Ntorya), meaning estimated resources are 105.81 x greater now.

However, Aminex traded a 50% share of the asset to secure $140m gross free carry & $5m cash - accounting for this change, Aminex's net asset share has grown from 0.116 TCF (75% of 0.155) to 4.1 TCF (25% of 16.4); a 35.3 x increase.

Shares in issue increased from 3,475,897,030 (31 Dec 2016) to 4,475,001,044 today. Adjusting for reduced ownership & increased share count, Aminex's net resource share is still 27.39 x greater today per share than pre NT-2. Or, looking at it another way, for every share held in 2016, the gas "backing" that share has increased by more than 2,600% even after the farmout etc.

In addition, the drill target for CH-1 is much larger than was the case for NT-2. On 18 Oct 2016 an RNS confirmed:

"Ntorya-2 represents a low risk appraisal well targeting Resources of 153 BCF".

Fast forward to the 29 Feb 2024 RNS which said:

"A most-likely (approximating to P50) estimate of 3.45 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) is now believed to be potentially connected to the reservoir sandstones encountered in the Ntorya-1 (NT-1) and Ntorya-2 (NT-2) discovery wells"

And...

"An upside aggregated GIIP volume for the Ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1, is estimated by APT to be up to 7.95 Tcf"

CH-1 targets an aggregated GIIP increase for Ntorya of 4.5 Tcf, compared to the 153 BCF target for NT-2. The CH-1 target is 29.41 x bigger (or 7.62 x bigger adjusting for reduced ownership and increased shares).

In summary, FROM A SHAREHOLDER PERSPECTIVE (fully adjusted for ownership changes & dilution):

• Current estimated resources are 27.39 x bigger than pre-NT2

• The CH-1 target is 7.6 x bigger than the NT-2 target

Back then, the share price hit ~7.5p. Alongside the points above, we now also have:

• Gas Sales Agreement signed

• 25 Yr Development Licence awarded

• Two commercially viable wells drilled & 3D seismic giving greater drill confidence

• Drilling managed by a highly experienced, well-capitalised operator

• Route to market being built; production on track for e/o Sept '26

• Full Field Development Plan (14 wells) + 1 additional well on wider Mtwara licence to look forward to

• Production ramp-up details confirmed (based on pre-CH1 estimates)

• Surging regional & Tanzanian gas demand. Not least, Ruvuma Energy/Mtwara LNG project names Ntorya as primary feedstock

• Government changed from nationalistic, blocking regime to an outward-looking, investor-friendly, and supportive one

Holding 25% of an onshore multi-TCF gas field with all these factors, there is every reason to believe Aminex will considerably surpass the 7.5p achieved during the NT-2 drill. With production starting and more drilling ahead, value should continue to grow.

A quick recap of where the rig likely stands as we close out this week / heading into next week:

Kasa spudded on June 1. The planned timeline is 55 days total, with 29 days to reach Target Depth (TD) before 26 days of completion work begins. Here's what the well's status should look like after those 29 days:

> TARGET DEPTH REACHED: The active drilling phase—boring through the rock to the planned final depth—should be finished.

> TRANSITIONING TO COMPLETION: The rig crew will shift to the 26-day completion phase. This typically involves running and cementing the final production casing, installing the completion string (tubing), and perforating the wellbore so the gas can flow.

M&P finished MB-5 in 41 days vs 47 planned, a ~12.8% time saving. If they achieve that same level of time saving with Kasa for its 29-day drilling phase, they save about 3.7 days. Target Depth could be reached around June 25th or 26th. So, TD might be reached today!

Even if they don't run ahead of schedule, the active drilling phase should be finished by next Monday/Tuesday. The rig crew will then start the final completion phase, pushing us that much closer to the rig mobilization window!

A good update Roger. Thank you 🙏

They’ve said they expect to issue the rig contract in Q2. So, by end of this month. Assuming no news today, that’s just 14 trading days remaining - maximum.

Nice. Shows real confidence.

I agree Fowler. In my view:

August = earliest possible

September = realistic and probable

October = at very latest

M&P ALREADY DRILLING THEIR FINAL WELL

A great find from Carl on Telegram yesterday. This article confirms that M&P is currently drilling the third and final well of their 3 well campaign (KASA 1-X):

https://dailynews.co.tz/mnazi-bay-drilling-project-delivers-320-jobs-20bn-in-local-contracts/

“Engineer Mwose said the project, which involves the drilling of two production wells and one exploration well, began on February 6, 2026. By June 5, 2026, drilling of the two production wells, MB5 and MS2, had been completed, while drilling of the third well, KASA-1X, was still underway”

This aligns with satellite imagery which shows the set up of the rig for KASA was in progress as far back as 18th May and looked substantially in place by 21st May.

TPDC MANAGING DIRECTOR CONFIRMED WE WILL USE THE SAME RIG

On 11th March, the Managing Director of the TPDC confirmed that we will be using the same rig directly after the M&P campaign.

So, we are now on the final countdown. M&P just need to finish the final well that is in progress and the monster rig will then head down the road to us.

IMPLICATIONS FOR LIKELY CH1 SPUD WINDOW

Based on available technical data, we can map out a highly realistic timeline for when the rig should arrive at Ntorya:

KASA COMPLETION:

As a complex directional exploration well with a 3,000m horizontal step-out, Kasa is probably a 65 to 80-day drill (considerably longer than the first two wells in M&P’s campaign). Having probably spudded end of May / start of June, M&P is probably on track to release the rig between at some point during August.

RIG MOVE & SET-UP:

Moving an 8,000m-rated heavy rig down the road to Ntorya will probably take 3 to 4 weeks for teardown, transit, and rig set-up. Since Aminex has already commenced civil works at the CH-1 pad, there should be no site delays.

CH-1 SPUD DATE:

This makes a mid-September 2026 spud window highly probably (with late August possible if M&P finishes flawlessly).

So, we are looking at a likely 3-month countdown to the drill bit spinning at CH-1. Crucially, this timeline aligns with the target date for completion of the pipeline and first gas from NT-2, meaning we get an extraordinary double whammy of first production in nearly a decade and the much anticipated CH-1 drill happening.

The next ~3 months will change Aminex forever. It is going to be an exciting ride!

Following on from yesterday's post regarding Tanzania's FYDP IV, I have updated my Kinyerezi III satellite imagery video to include a more recent image. I am pleased to say that construction work at Kinyerezi III continues to advance.

FYDP IV contains some very powerful targets for the period to 2030/31, including:

• Increasing power generation capacity to more than 15,000 MW

• Increasing onshore natural gas production to 1,000 MMSCFD

• Increasing domestic natural gas utilisation to 800 MMSCFD

For anyone following Tanzania's energy sector, Kinyerezi III is an important project in that context.

The Tanzanian Government has confirmed that it is now planned as a 1,000 MW gas-fired power station. At that scale it is set to effectively double Tanesco installed gas fired power generation in Tanzania and it becomes one of the most significant drivers of future domestic gas demand.

It is deeply encouraging to see the connection between strategic targets set out in FYDP IV and physical infrastructure now being developed on the ground. The policy objectives are transformational in scale. Projects such as Kinyerezi III provide tangible evidence that the infrastructure required to support those objectives is already taking shape.

The updated video can be viewed here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15lrcfM8F5mzQ_PAbm7yL4h5O2jBGV-nX/view?usp=drive_link

Hi Northern,

Yes. On 28 April, they advised that:

o 85% of route clearing activities have been completed.

o Approximately 50% of pipeline welding has been completed.

o Trenching activities are scheduled to recommence in May 2026, following the planned suspension due to the current rainy season.

Happily, they are back underway with the pipeline and making great progress - as confirmed by satellite imagery.

Rig contract due by end of June and could land any day now

Great article just published confirming significant progress with Tanzania's natural gas infrastructure.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE ARTICLE:

"THE Tanzanian government plans to construct 10 new CNG stations across the country as part of efforts to promote cleaner and cheaper energy for transport."

"TPDC is finalising procurement for five mobile CNG stations"

"Discussions are ongoing with six private companies to develop mini-LNG projects to convert natural gas into liquid form for transport"

"In regions already served by the gas pipeline, including Mtwara, the government is prioritising household and institutional gas distribution through pipelines"

THOUGHTS:

The CNG expansion is highly encouraging. Adding these 10 fixed and 5 mobile stations will almost double the footprint, raising the number of stations from 18 to 33!

Add in the 6 companies planning mini-LNG projects, and it's clear that domestic demand and off-take capacity are expanding rapidly. This provides a brilliant backdrop of domestic demand for Ntorya's commercialisation.

Full article here:

https://dailynews.co.tz/tanzania-to-construct-10-more-cng-stations-to-boost-cheaper-energy-for-transport/

Up ~ 10% in the past month

Up ~ ~70% in the past 6 months

Up ~ 95% in the past year

Up ~ 215% in the past 5 years

Rig contract due within the next month. Then huge catalysts of production starting in 4 months and the much anticipated CH-1 drill.

This is just getting started!

Morning everyone. I think a key piece of Tanzanian policy may have passed some by, so I wanted to share a few critical details from the draft "Fourth Five-Year Development Plan 2026/27 – 2030/31" (FYDP IV).

FYDP IV receives binding approval concurrently with the 2026/27 National Budget. From July 1 2026, it becomes operational policy dictating national budget allocations and ministry spending. It has some very powerful stats for us.

POWER GENERATION:

The draft lifts capacity targets to over 15,000 MW by 2030/31. This is materially above the previous PSMP 2035 target of 12,225 MW. The near-term target is now 22.7% higher AND brought forward by 5 years.

ONSHORE GAS (p.151):

The plan targets increasing onshore natural gas production to 1000 MMSCFD by June 2031. With current capacity below 300 MMSCFD, the reality is a target to more than triple onshore production in the next 5 years. In-country utilization is targeted to increase from 290 to 800 MMSCFD.

MTWARA LNG:

Crucially, point 3.i specifically targets fast-tracking contract negotiations for the Mtwara LNG Project by June 2027. Most here know this project:

• Plans 1.5 to 3 MTPA initially (scalable to 9). A 3 MTPA plant requires approx 430-450 MMSCFD of feedstock gas.

Includes its own 100 MW (scalable to 300 MW) gas fired power plant.

• Includes regional LNG/CNG distribution to Kenya, Zambia, DRC, etc.

• Lists its two PRIMARY supply sources as 1) Ntorya Gas Field (Ruvuma) and 2) Mozambique Offshore Area 1.

INFRASTRUCTURE:

Page 24 states that downstream distribution cannot meet rising industrial demand. To fix this, the "Natural Gas Infrastructure Expansion Programme" will add 1,200km of pipeline by 2031, plus new storage and CNG stations to promote investment in gas-based fertiliser, petrochemicals and power.

REGIONAL HUB:

FYDP IV includes explicit targets for Tanzania to become a Regional Gas Trading Hub supplying 3,500 MMSCFD by 2031.

Tanzania's gas ambitions have been dramatically ramped up.

CONCLUSION:

The targets for onshore production are incredibly encouraging, and fast-tracking Mtwara LNG proves it is a top government priority and it underpins scenario planning for potentially drastically increased production if CH-1 is successful and proves up that aggregated 7.95 TCF for Ntorya.

Unreasonable? Yes. Unreasonably low! 😊 This should help:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jZg341SxxBZuu6UZzcY61BzrT7JFrw79/view?usp=drive_link

That is a valuation based on clearly laid out and conservative modelling assumptions. Using real world data, much of it provided by Aminex or ARA themselves. Using an industry standard model to generate share price valuations (Discounted Cash Flow / Net Present Value).

Clear, transparent, conservative data and assumptions, fed into an industry standard valuation model = realistic and robust valuations.

Utter nonsense. Anyone with any sense can see right through you.

Blue day today. Many more of those to come 😉

Your motivation is clear and obvious.

Anyway no matter. Rig contract within next ~ 5 weeks. With the civil works clearly well advanced, all long lead items on site and our rig being set up for its final drill just down the road before heading to us, it’s looking like we’ll see that contract sooner rather than later.

Production in 4 months too.

Huge catalysts looming large right in front of us!

Well said P26!

Still not seeing the basis for your valuation. Again, here’s an example for you:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jZg341SxxBZuu6UZzcY61BzrT7JFrw79/view?usp=drivesdk

Looking forward to seeing yours

The market IS buying!

Up over 250% over the past 5 years and up more than 110% over the past 12 months.

Please do share the rationale for your valuation.

If you are going to put a valuation out there, back it up

With some proper rationale.

This is going north of 10p during the CH-1 drill. Here’s my rationale:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jZg341SxxBZuu6UZzcY61BzrT7JFrw79/view?usp=drivesdk

Now show me yours

Up over 250% over the past 5 years and up more than 110% over the past 12 months.

The market has been slowly waking up.

Production in 4 months should ensure continued upward momentum. Plus the CH-1 drill of course.

Talk of Aminex being taken out sub 3p is baseless. ARA have protected Aminex through the difficult years. They could easily have taken Aminex out then. Everything points to them wanting Aminex around and to prosper.

We have an incredible few months ahead of us!

It is amazing that we can now look forward to production starting in around 4 months time.

No longer do we need to think in terms of “will this year be our year?” or “hopefully next year”. More than that, having a near term firm date, being pushed hard by the Deputy PM and Energy Minister feels amazing. With all the pipe sections on site, 80% of the pipeline route cleared and 50% of the pipeline welded already, the deadline feels ever more secure.

The CH-1 drill will be hugely significant event. Potentially more than doubling estimated GIIP for Ntorya. CH-1 is like a buried treasure chest of epic proportions but the pipeline is a multi-faceted gift. A gift that keeps on giving. It’s the golden goose! It gifts us:

• Confirmed commitment from the Tanzanians – the fact that they are stumping up ~$50m for the pipeline is huge. It demonstrates absolute commitment to the project.

• Security and significant revenues – after so many years of financial fragility, the pipeline gives Aminex security and enables significant revenues to build wealth and to develop other assets.

• The key for us to book reserves and instantly transform our balance sheet – it will allow a massive transformation in Aminex’s value as it is the final piece of the puzzle to allow us to book our share of the multi TCF Ntorya gas field as reserves.

A $50m commitment from Tanzania to the project. On track. ~4 months away. Not a lofty aspiration or a vague promise. 34km of steel pipe on the ground in Tanzania. 50% welded already.

The share price has steadily risen over the past couple of years as crucial milestones have been ticked off including completion of the farmout that secured the $140m gross free carry, the completion of the largest onshore 3D seismic campaign in East Africa, the signing of the Gas Sales Agreement, the award of the 25 Year Development License, the signing of the pipeline contract, the pipeline being manufactured and delivered and ARA being seen issuing tenders for upcoming drilling and production.

Gains so far have been driven by those developments. Logic and history suggest the rise in share price will quickly gather momentum as we approach the big prizes of production/revenue/reserves and the CH-1 drill.