The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Agreed SC. As I posted on Telegram a short while ago:
I agree it needs to be formally confirmed. It is pretty darned specific though. South East Mtwara. Points directly as Ntorya/Madimba.
Lindi obviously plans to have its own LNG processing facility and that is 100k North.
It’s just one article I agree but it all adds up.
If I were Uganda…
“I want to buy your gas. I need to know how much it will cost before we start spending on a pipeline (which they have)”
“Oh, you haven’t agreed a price for the offshore gas? In fact negotiations aren’t going very well at all? Oh!”
“You’ve discovered a world class gas field onshore? Wow! Great! You’ve agreed the GSA and the gas will be ready from next year and at a much lower cost that the offshore stuff?” Blo*dy amazing”
“Ok, sign me up. Let’s crack on with spending money on planning that pipeline then”
From about two weeks ago:
https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/gas-pipeline-study-to-cost-uganda-tanzania-shs5-6b-4599142
They may plan to hook up to Madimba and take our gas from there? That’s even further east. Either way, it seems clear that the pipeline to ship gas to Uganda is starting from on our doorstep!
An excellent find by B on Telegram just now. This article mentions that they plan:
“a reverse liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline from the south-eastern Mtwara region to Uganda”
Our licence is Mtwara obviously. The offshore LNG is Lindi - about 100km North of Mtwara.
Ntorya is to the South and East of Mtwara.
This strongly suggests the pipeline to Uganda will use our gas.
https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/uganda-tanzania-trade-deficit-reduces-by-shs22b-4618968
No. The conference in Oman was So 22 - 24 April. This was, after the 16th April when the Energy Minister gave the speech in which he said The Development License had been approved by the cabinet (the final approval needed) and that TPDC had been instructed to issue the licence to ARA. Sounds like the delegation stayed on after the conference and was hosted by ARA
The fact that our license has all approvals - whilst negotiations regarding the offshore projects are being delayed again + it seems Orca can’t get the time of day from the authorities to discuss their expiring agreements - is hugely significant.
Seeing the Energy Minister on a jolly out in Oman suggests relationships are very good and he is very focused on Ntorya. Also very reassuring.
Really excellent find StockCheque! Thanks for sharing. As I just evidenced with photos on the Aminex telegram, one of the Tanzanian delegation was definitely the Energy Minister (who is also Deputy PM obviously).
So, the top brass are in town!
Oh, and AGM next month. I expect they will want to put on a show! They made a big effort last year. Lots of info. The seismic interpretation team there. Shard Capital too. With the news due and new PR firm in place, I expect this to be a good one 👍
A good reminder from Roger about the 3D seismic results just now. A World Class Giant (less than 1% of gas fields worldwide are Super Giants or World Class Giants!)!
Also worth a reminder that we are at a pivotal point in Aminex’s history and in terms of news due. The last year or two included the 3D seismic (largest ever survey onshore in East Africa they reckon!) but was largely focused on getting the agreements in place to fully secure the asset, so that ARA can race ahead and drill and develop the field…spending another $100m+ with confidence (for which Aminex is fully carried).
Shareholders have long understood these to be the things that needed to be cleared out of the way:
✅ Scirocco deal done (their 25% of Ruvuma going to ARA)
✅ Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) signed
✅ Field Development Plan approved
✅ 25-Year Development License approved by all parties
Those were the things that shareholders said needed to be ticked off before ARA cracks on with drilling - that last one has all approvals and is just awaiting issue by TPDC to ARA.
Production is expected within ~12 months. They’ve got to create the CH1 pad, transport and mobilise that rig, drill CH1, demobilise it, move it to the NT1 site to complete the workover on that well. They will presumably want to build in some contingency and plan to have that lot done comfortably in advance of completion of the pipeline and first gas.
So, the final bit of paperwork is just about to be issued. The one that ARA says “secures the asset”. Then, they have a great deal to do in 12 months or less. So, all those facts point to news very soon, including schedule for drilling CH1.
According to stockbrokers Shard Capital, Aminex is very undervalued at these prices. A great opportunity IMHO.