Member Info for Ufufuo

I was also reading that update with interest this morning Alcapone1

It’s a healthy price for gas sales.

Also interesting that the update states:

“Total Proved plus Probable (“2P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2025, were 19.2 Bcf”

It puts the scale of Ntorya in context!

Orca’s licence is still set to expire in early October this year. No news on any progress resolving their dispute. That’s ~8 months remaining. Looks like Orca’s longstanding poor relationship with the Tanzanians is coming home to roost. It all strengthens ARA and Aminex’s hand.

Some great comments in this article that has just been published today:

https://thebizlens.co.tz/2026/01/28/tanzania-highlights-oil-gas-investment-drive-at-india-energy-week-2026/

Beyond upstream developments, Ms Makamba said the government is continuing to invest heavily in gas distribution infrastructure to support industrial use, power generation, household consumption and transport.

She emphasised that the expanded use of natural gas has already begun to lower energy costs for industries and households, while reducing reliance on more expensive and environmentally harmful fuels.

“The oil and gas sector is a critical enabler of national economic growth. Tanzania, like other resource-rich countries, places strong emphasis on partnership with the private sector in order to benefit from advanced technologies and capital,” she said, underscoring the government’s preference for collaborative models that balance commercial viability with national development priorities.

Ms Makamba further observed that Tanzania’s energy demand continues to rise, driven by sustained economic growth, urbanisation and industrial expansion.

This trend, she said, heightens the need for reliable, affordable and sustainable energy sources capable of supporting the country’s development ambitions.

She also highlighted Tanzania’s strategic geographical position, noting that the country is well placed to serve neighbouring states through its ports and through regional power interconnections linking East Africa with other parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

According to the Deputy Minister, this positioning strengthens Tanzania’s role as a regional energy and logistics hub, while reinforcing the importance of cross-border cooperation and environmental stewardship.

Thanks to Carl on Telegram for finding this:

https://dailynews.co.tz/rea-eyes-to-supply-power-to-5593-households-in-lindi/

Just another small piece in the puzzle. Tanzania is building out natural gas and energy infrastructure at an impressive rate.

Their economy is going like the clappers. Inflation is low. Population growth and industrial demand growth are rapid. Tanzania keen to encourage inward investment and to position itself as a regional energy hub.

Aminex feels like the right investment, in the right place, at the right time.

All outlined in here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bpR5OCv2-R2ELV8DHCJe03KHYYyYsZIf/view?usp=drive_link

February this weekend folks. Pipe sections are in country. Pipe laying due to commence.

It’s happening 🤩

Then consider the 7.95 TCF aggregated GIIP for Ntorya on CH-1 success case (with more potential across the wider license)!

That opens up a whole new world of possibilities. The potential to have plateau production at more like 780mmscf/d!

Pie in the sky? Absolutely not. Just remember Ntorya has been named as primary feedstock for the proposed Mtwara LNG Project (backed by TPDC), which is set to produce 3 MPA (requiring ~ 450 mmscf/d equivalent upstream production for feedstock) rising to 9MTPA (requiring ~ 1,350 mmscf/d)

Plus, the planned 1,000 Kinyerezi III gas power plant (likely needing ~ 150 to 170 mmscf/d), the billion dollar fertilizer plant, planned natural gas exports to neighbouring countries, etc, etc.

So, 780mmscf/d can absolutely be achieved. Timing will be the question. However, even if you assume several years from First Gas to achieve plateau production, that justifies a share price of nearly 19p

It’s not called a World Class Giant for nothing you know! 🤩

Absolutely bullfrog!

The high confidence area associated with NT-1 and NT-2 with estimated 3.45 TCF gives ARA enough confidence to put that 280mmscf/d base case production plateau on the table.

In itself that will make Aminex very wealthy. Check the numbers. That scenario alone justifies a share price of ~9p

Valuation model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cIqc5WxsaKIVcgWBjy3AT73E8XwJo7OC/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113586101107712767943&rtpof=true&sd=true

…then there’s the workover of NT-1.

It will be interesting to see flow results there following that as well.

That is an interesting thought cperkin.

Plus, the Board stating that CH-1 might well flow at 50mmscf/d or more.

That could give us very healthy production rates from the Initial Phase alone.

I know many here grasp the true potential of Aminex, but it has been frustrating that existing and potential investors are not well served by available “official” valuations. Specifically:

1. Operator Confirmed Schedule: they ignore the ARA target to reach plateau "within 5 years of First Gas" and the 35-year production horizon.

2. CH-1 Success Case: Aminex (RNS 29 Feb 24) advised that a CH-1 success could lift aggregated GIIP from ~3.45 TCF to ~7.95 TCF – an outcome that would literally be a game changer for the company. Yet, there are no available valuations that model this.

3. High Margin Revenue Streams: They miss the premium revenue from Industrial Gas sales vs Power.

4. Transparency: Most notes are "black boxes." You can't see the assumptions.

With that in mind, I’ve spent time building a detailed Excel valuation model based on the specific Tanzanian Tax regime (2025 Finance Act), ARA and Aminex’s guidance, and the latest FDP inputs.

I have done this in such a way that it is fully transparent – there is no hidden magic. If you agree with the clearly stated assumptions, then you will be able to verify that the model is accurate for those. It's clear assumptions + industry standard valuation method + maths = share price estimates.

The model is interactive - the model has a tab for each of the two main scenarios. Within those, you can toggle between 3 different ramp-up scenarios and there are a few sensitivity analysis parameters you can play with.

The model can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cIqc5WxsaKIVcgWBjy3AT73E8XwJo7OC/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113586101107712767943&rtpof=true&sd=true

Conscious that Excel financial models are not everyone’s idea of fun, I have also created an article which outlines the key findings:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bpR5OCv2-R2ELV8DHCJe03KHYYyYsZIf/view?usp=drive_link

Hopefully people will find these useful. To me, this is not just my work. I have learnt a great deal from fellow posters over the years – Geoffrey and Samb highlighting Cove, B first put me on to the implications of 3.45 TCF and 6.95 TCF in terms of production scenarios, Andrew made me really think about the condensate, and so on and so on. Everyone has helped. So, this is a product of our collective research and knowledge.

The analysis became a bit of a beast! With so much data there, I have checked and re-checked it but if you do spot anything that needs to be updated, just let me know and I will happily take a look.

Enjoy!

Https://www.instagram.com/p/DT2ZukTAnDK/

REA AND TPDC COMPLETE NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION PROJECT IN LINDI AND PWANI REGIONS

The Rural Energy Agency (REA) in collaboration with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) have jointly completed the construction of a large and strategic Natural Gas Distribution Project in the areas surveyed by the gas pipeline developer in Lindi and Pwani regions where REA has funded and TPDC has built and distributed the infrastructure to the end user (Citizen) where until the Project is completed, REA has spent a total of 6.8 billion shillings to finance the Project.

Speaking to reporters after the completion of the inspection exercise of the Project's infrastructure in Kisemvule, Coast Region, on January 22, 2026 (Afternoon), Engineer Emanuel Yesaya, Acting Manager of Technical Assistance to Project Developers from REA, said a total of 530 households have already been provided with the Project's infrastructure, adding that the Project has been implemented by distributing natural gas pipelines of various sizes with a total length of 25 kilometers along with a small gas compression station in the Coast Region where the natural gas distribution infrastructure has reached homes in Vikindu ward, Kisemvule village.

Engineer, Yesaya said that the natural gas infrastructure has been distributed to the homes of citizens within the scope of the Project and added that citizens are free to use the energy for cooking where they will have to buy gas stoves to start enjoying the use of natural gas.

“The gas system in place enables citizens to buy gas at any time through a special Government payment number (Control number).” Engineer, Yesaya was quoted.

He also called on citizens to use natural gas as it is cheaper, emphasizing that the use of this energy will help significantly reduce environmental damage caused by the use of firewood and charcoal, he said that REA in collaboration with TPDC will continue to provide education to citizens to enable them understand the importance of using clean energy, especially natural gas, for cooking.

1.85 was a technical resistance level. 2.0 is an important psychological hurdle. We’ve gone through both. So it’s a good couple of days in my view. Onwards and upwards

.

Here is a picture of the right of way clearance for the pipeline. Boots on the ground!!! That path they are clearing is our route to market....to significant revenues...to bookable reserves...

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ml2jM7N7qwddl-Fy7s0b-aZFJfaHkE82/view?usp=sharing

You can be sure that a lot of people will be watching this today and looking for an entry / top up

Absolutely no reason for ARA to hold back on anything following that news + visual confirmation route in being cleared already!

Looking forward to that Ops Update! 👀 👏 🥳

“ We are very pleased to report that the pipe for the Ntorya to Madimba PIPELINE HAS ARRIVED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE”

Love it!!! Just love it!!! Absolutely love it!!!! 🤩

“the necessary pipe for the Pipeline has been manufacturedt and is scheduled to arrive in Tanzania in late January 2026 with groundwork and pipelaying to commence thereafter”

The way that was worded, it sounded like groundwork was due to start AFTER late January- i.e in early Feb.

So, it looks like the project is running ahead of schedule. Who would have thought!?

100% Roger.

IT IS UNDENIABLE

GROUNDWORKS FOR THE PIPELINE HAVE STARTED 💥

Nice work Watchouse!

This has made my day! Fabulous to see confirmation that work on the ground to clear the route for the the pipeline has definitely started. Amazing!!!!

This might help: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1QmLfHzi5WecNCi3fq4czzH7gynCG6mQc/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=113586101107712767943&rtpof=true&sd=true

Shows the pipeline route + dated satellite images