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Https://furtherafrica.com/2026/02/10/tanzania-gas-project-progress-ntorya-2026/

“Tanzania gas project progress at Ntorya is accelerating as Aminex advances pipeline construction and upstream work toward first gas in 2026”

“Construction milestones and development pace

Tanzania gas project progress has entered a decisive phase as Aminex advances upstream activities and pipeline construction at the Ntorya gas development in southern Tanzania. The project, led by Aminex, is moving into a stage where infrastructure delivery aligns closely with field readiness. This alignment keeps timelines for initial gas production in 2026 firmly on track”

“Teams are building the pipeline alongside upstream facilities, which reduces coordination risks between production and transport systems. This approach reflects experience gained from earlier regional gas projects. As a result, the transition from construction to commissioning is expected to be smoother”

They are crediting Aminex with bit more “leading” of the project than is actually the case - but presumably that may be because Aminex PR were behind it. Regardless, it’s a nice piece of publicity!

Https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/orca-announces-special-dividend-1035803698

Interesting. I’ve posted many times before of the bad relationship between Orca and the Tanzanian authorities- which I understand were largely caused by Tanzania’s frustration over their perception that Orca’s board is greedy and has not been sufficiently interested in developing the Songo Songo field.

This update from them today states:

“Unfortunately, and despite our best efforts, the Government of Tanzania refuses to engage with us in a constructive negotiation on the extension and future of the development of the Songo Songo license and field”

Their license expires 9th October this year.

Orca’ has previously stated that the Tanzanians have said they may look at alternative arrangements to operate the field.

Currently Tanzania’s largest of the two natural producers by volume.

Songo Songo is tiny by comparison to Ntorya and experiencing declining pressure and production. I imagine the Tanzanians aren’t that interested in battling on with Orca and having to spend their share to try to boost the lifespan of that field. Particularly when they have much easier options with Mnazi and Ntorya.

It’s an interesting part of the wider story to keep an eye on.

It puts pressure on to get Ntorya into production to protect the energy security of the country.

It also potentially leaves a lot of demand looking for a new supplier.

AI view on next steps following topographical survey:

Here’s what AI thinks next steps look like:

1. Final survey outputs & engineering design

~2–6 weeks

• Flowline route finalised

• Trench depths, crossings, tie-ins designed

• Bill of materials locked

(Engineering can start before final survey delivery and tighten once the final model lands.)

⸻

2. Procurement & mobilisation

~3–5 weeks

• Pipes ordered (often already pre-qualified suppliers)

• Civil and pipeline contractor mobilised

• Equipment and camps set up

If ARA is pushing pace, procurement may already be running in parallel.

⸻

3. ROW prep, trenching & pipe stringing

~2–3 weeks

⸻

4. Pipe laying, welding, testing & tie-in

~3–6 weeks (depends on length and number of flowlines)

⸻

So when can pipes realistically go in the ground?

With land and approvals done:

➡️ As little as 8–10 weeks after LiDAR survey completion

➡️ More conservatively: ~10–14 weeks

In other words: within the same quarter the survey wraps up.

What this signals strategically

• This is no longer “early studies” — it’s pre-construction execution

• Airborne LiDAR at this stage usually means:

• routing decisions are imminent

• contractors are being lined up

• first gas timelines are being protected

Https://www.instagram.com/reel/DUdBwggDYS6/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

AI putting the work into layman’s terms: This project is about accurately mapping the ground at the Ntorya Gas Field so gas flowlines (pipes) can be designed and built in the right place, at the right height, and without nasty surprises. What they’re actually doing:

• Planning the survey first: Deciding exactly what area needs mapping, how accurate it must be, and how the data will be collected.

• Setting up ground reference points (45 of them): Surveyors place and precisely measure fixed points on the ground using GPS. These act like “anchors” so everything measured from the air lines up perfectly with real-world coordinates.

• Flying a LiDAR survey over the area: A plane or drone flies over the site firing millions of laser pulses at the ground. By timing how long they take to bounce back, it creates a very detailed 3D model of the terrain, even through light vegetation.

• Taking aerial photographs at the same time: These are processed into orthophotos — aerial photos that are corrected so distances and positions are accurate, like a map rather than a photo.

• Mapping key features: Roads, rivers, buildings, slopes, vegetation, existing pipelines — anything relevant to routing the flowlines safely and efficiently.

In one sentence: They’re using aircraft-mounted lasers and aerial photos, checked against ground measurements, to produce an extremely accurate map of the land so gas pipelines can be planned and built properly at Ntorya.

Https://dailynews.co.tz/mps-push-for-10pc-growth-to-achieve-vision-2050/

“He also recommended expanding exploration to the Ruvuma Basin, where potential gas reserves could exceed 100 trillion cubic feet”

I’m going to make myself a strong tea and have a little sit down!

The claim that governance rules won't save us from "corruption" ignores commercial and legal reality.

=== COULD ARA BUY US OUT CHEAPLY? ===

The theory that ARA will use the Board to take Aminex private for peanuts fails on three commercial / legal counts:

1. VOTING RULES

In a takeover attempt by ARA (a Related Party), they cannot vote their own shares. The deal requires approval from a majority of INDEPENDENT shareholders. If the offer is derisory, we (the 72%) simply vote "No." ARA cannot force a squeeze-out.

2. VALUATION ANCHOR

The $140m Farm-Out Carry sets a hard floor. Irish Takeover Rules require an Independent Valuer. They cannot ethically value the company at the current ~£87m Mcap when a partner has committed ~$140m to the asset. The Carry forces a valuation based on asset potential, not share price.

3. TIMING

If ARA wanted to "steal" Aminex, the time was BEFORE the Farm-Out, when we were distressed. They didn't. They chose to back the company to First Gas. It makes no commercial sense to turn hostile now that the asset is de-risked.

=== THIRD PARTY BUYOUT PRECEDENTS ===

If "Greed" drives the Board, they will demand the highest price from a Major. History shows what happens when East African assets like ours get acquired and ARA/Aminex negotiate from a position of strength.

1. COVE ENERGY (East Africa Parallel)

Scenario: Tiny shell with 8.5% interest in Mozambique.

Outcome: Bidding war between Shell and PTTEP.

Sold for: £1.2 BILLION ($1.9bn).

Share Price Impact: Re-rated ~20x in 3 years.

Lesson: Giant gas assets attract Giant Majors. Competitive tension destroys "low ball" offers

2. HARDMAN RESOURCES ("Carry" Parallel)

Scenario: Junior facing funding doubts, then secured a "Free Carry" (like Aminex's $140m). Outcome: Acquired by Tullow Oil. Sold for: A$1.47 BILLION.

Lesson: The "Carry" removes desperation to sell, forcing full value.

3. HERITAGE OIL (The "Connectivity" Parallel)

Scenario: Assets assumed "stranded" until drilling proved a connected basin.

Outcome: Once connectivity was proven (CH-1 target), assets became strategic.

Sold for: $1.45 BILLION.

Share Price Impact: ~18x gain.

4. PANOCEAN ENERGY ("Cash Flow" Parallel)

Scenario: Established steady production (Aminex blueprint).

Outcome: Market eventually valued the utility cash flow.

Sold for: C$1.6 BILLION.

Share Price Impact: ~15x gain.

=== CONCLUSION ===

As shareholders in Aminex, our interests are protected in two distinct ways:

1. Internal Defence: Strict Irish voting rules and the $140m Carry prevent them from taking us private on the cheap.

2. External Leverage: Their 27% stake blocks opportunistic low-ball bids from outsiders, forcing any acquirer to pay a strategic premium.

Cheers RJ.

I’d need to look that up Watchouse. Sounds positive though. Will look into it when I have time 👍

That's a good point. However, the protections are almost identical. The Irish rules (like the UK ones) were heavily influenced by the same EU directives.

Independent Committee: Still required.

Fairness Opinion: Still required.

Voting Arithmetic: ARA still cannot vote on their own Scheme of Arrangement; it still requires a majority of independent shareholders.

With Aminex trading below fair value, thoughts naturally turn to takeover potential. Specifically, how ARA’s 27.43% holding influences this.

Here is why ARA serves as a price anchor, not a blocker.

=== 1. WOULD ARA BLOCK A TAKEOVER? ===

This seems unlikely. ARA is a rational commercial actor driven by ROI.

PROFIT MAXIMIZATION ARA invested to generate a financial return, not to hoard assets. If a Major enters with a premium offer providing a massive multiple, blocking it would just limit ARA's own profit. Their large stake aligns with minority shareholders: they want the highest possible exit price.

LEVERAGE, NOT BLOCKAGE Because ARA is a multi-billion dollar operator, they are not desperate to sell. They have the balance sheet to "go it alone" if offers are too low. They are not blocking a sale; they are blocking a CHEAP sale. This is a key difference to a lot of the low ball buyout examples such as Solo/Scirocco.

"TAG-ALONG" EFFECT In a takeover, a buyer (like a Supermajor) wants 100% control. They must negotiate with ARA first. Once ARA—a sophisticated entity with no pressure to sell—agrees to a price (e.g., 25p), that effectively sets the benchmark for all shareholders. ARA does the heavy lifting of price negotiation for us.

VERDICT: ARA’s stake acts as a defensive shield against opportunistic low-ball raiders but does not impede a genuine premium offer.

=== 2. COULD ARA TAKE AMINEX PRIVATE FOR PENNIES? ===

Again, highly unlikely. If they wanted to do this, they had ample opportunity when Aminex was far weaker.

"IMPLIED ASSET" ANCHOR The carry acts as a valuation floor. The $140m gross committed spend translates to a $35m (~£27m) NET carried benefit for Aminex.

At a share price of ~2.0p (Market Cap ~£87m): If you deduct the ~£27m of committed funding, the market is valuing the ENTIRETY of the gas assets (including 7.95 TCF potential) at just £60m.

An independent valuer is legally bound to assess the company based on the FDP and 280 MMscfd production targets, not the depressed market cap. It is near impossible to justify a "fair" offer that ignores these numbers.

UK TAKEOVER CODE PROTECTIONS As a UK PLC, Aminex is protected. Any offer from ARA (a "Related Party") requires:

An Independent Committee of the Board (excluding ARA reps).

A "Fairness Opinion" from an independent investment bank (not the company broker).

THE VOTING ARITHMETIC Critically, if structured as a Scheme of Arrangement, ARA CANNOT VOTE on their own takeover scheme. The offer must be approved by a majority of the INDEPENDENT shareholders. If the offer is derisory, the independent shareholders simply vote "No" and block it.

INDEPENDENT VALUATION Investors often worry about conservative broker notes. However, in a takeover defence, the Independent valuer assesses "Strategic Value"—pricing in the full, unrisked potential of the 35-year license and the control premium. This creates a significantly higher figure than a broker's dai

Our circumstances are such that I think we would get a very good price.

See Appendix B:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bpR5OCv2-R2ELV8DHCJe03KHYYyYsZIf/view

That’s a good update.

So now we know that the pipeline is on / slightly ahead of schedule. Really good to see Aminex posting pictures of the right of way clearance and the pipeline sections in situ on site. So TPDC and the Chinese contractor are pressing on as expected.

The fact civil works for the following items started last month also is amazing to hear:

* well pad preparation for CH-1 including access road;

* well pad rehabilitation for NT-1 and NT-2:

* converting the original Ntorya-3 well site to the Ntorya Gas Field Base; and

* preparation of the site for all upstream production facilities and ancillary access roads.

All parties are really getting on with it then.

A lot of people just want to know when CH-1 will be drilled. Understandable as it is such a significant drill, targeting such a vast amount of gas.

I’m chuffed to bits to see the progress with the pipeline though. Not only is it very real, undeniable, physical progress on the ground. It is Aminex’s security. Route to market and to serious cash flows. Also the last obstacle before an updated CPR and bookable reserves.

On top of that, the RNS and tweets today show clear intent from Aminex to give us regular updates and to give us things like photos of the project progressing.

Sincere thanks to Aminex and partners. Great stuff. Very pleasing.

I thought it might be interesting to look at how much progress there has been since Samia came to power and we moved on from the nationalistic Magufuli era.

It was interesting to see how the project has progressed since.

I created a single slide to show the stark contrast. I could’ve added more but was short on space.

It tells a story though I think - a real step change in terms of progress. I hope some of you find it interesting

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IrWukDoySalnZZ87jo3G9M7l6vn09MKj/view?usp=sharing

You might indeed P26!

Now let’s get this baby into production. Groundworks and pipe laying to start as early as next week 🥳

And the the Indian Oil Company thinks Tanzania specifically is the place to be…

https://www.instagram.com/p/DUGaNUWjaf8/

Indian Oil Corporation Limited, a leading oil and gas company in India, has expressed interest in the country's oil and gas sector development strategies and has expressed its interest in investing.

The company, which is ranked 88th in the world among the 500 largest oil and gas companies, expressed its interest on the sidelines of the India Energy Week 2026 celebrations underway in Goa, India, at a session chaired by the company's Director of Planning and Business and the Tanzanian delegation led by the Deputy Minister of Energy, Salome Makamba. The director, Suman Kumar, told the Tanzanian delegation that "Tanzania is a market for many products including energy products and our company would like to be a business partner with the country."

He added that “due to the increasing demand for products such as oil, LPG and energy resulting from economic growth, a growing population and rapidly growing cities, it provides opportunities for energy companies to collaborate in the distribution, processing and services of energy.”

For her part, Deputy Minister of Energy Salome Makamba said that “The Government of Tanzania welcomes investors and is ready for international investment in the energy sector, including the distribution of oil and LPG in line with the government’s drive to promote the use of clean cooking energy.”

In addition, the Deputy Minister added that “There is a need for investors to open branches in Tanzania and participate in joint purchasing of oil products to increase competition and ensure the availability of affordable fuel in the country.”

The India Energy Week 2026 is scheduled to conclude on January 30, 2026 and has brought together participants from over 125 countries, attracting many foreign investors in the energy sector.

IOCL, founded in 1959, is headquartered in New Delhi and has branches in Sri Lanka, Mauritius and the United Arab Emirates, directly employing over 35,000 people.

Looks like natural gas is the place to be…

https://www.africanpeacemagazine.com/international-oil-companies-increase-focus-on-natural-gas-investments/

International Oil Companies Increase Focus on Natural Gas

Investments Major international oil companies are accelerating investment in natural gas projects as part of broader portfolio rebalancing strategies.

Executives describe gas as a strategic asset supporting both energy security and emissions reduction goals.

Upstream gas developments, particularly offshore and deepwater projects, are attracting renewed capital allocation. Companies cite strong demand fundamentals and expanding LNG infrastructure as key motivators.

Midstream investments are also gaining traction, with new pipelines and processing facilities planned to support growing production volumes.

These assets are viewed as essential for ensuring market access.

Gas-linked revenues are increasingly seen as stabilizing cash flows amid oil price fluctuations.

This is influencing long-term capital planning across the sector.

Industry analysts expect natural gas to maintain a strong position in global energy markets over the next decade.

Or, from April 2024 to now the Aminex share price has risen from 0.78p to 2.05p today.

That's a 160% + gain

Anyway, no point chatting to a troll. Just giving oxygen. Bye

Interesting to note that RoJo's comment is not accurate.

The share price rose from ~0.8p in Apr 2024 to 2.0p at the very end of May. After that it lost some gains, falling back to about 1.5p by end of June.

The overall trend since Apr 2024 is UP as shown in this graph.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tBKMjxzJGETKsDNNQpigkrXccDO_gMv1/view?usp=sharing

Before anyone says it. I'm not interested in an ancient history lesson and talking about the share price of 10 to 20 years ago or more. To all intents and purposes, it is a different company now. Anyone with sense is looking forward to production in Q3 this year, ramp up to 280mmscf/d (base case) within 5 years of first gas, plus of course the hugely significant CH-1 drill that ARA says may increase GIIP for Ntorya from 3.45 TCF to 7.95 TCF.

Https://dailynews.co.tz/tanzania-sees-its-clean-cooking-energy-as-a-healthy-transformative-shift/

THE Tanzanian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office in Vienna, Naimi S.H. Aziz:

“Additionally, she highlighted natural gas as a growing, important transition fuel not only for power generation but also in transforming cooking to clean cooking, CNG in vehicles as well as industrial applications”

It’s good to see yet more evidence of boots on the ground operations happening in Tanzania.

M&P having a rig in Tanzania already gives us options.

Looking forward to the next Ops Update..

18 Dec RNS:

“the contracting process is well advanced for all services required for bringing the Ntorya-2 well (NT-2) into production, in line with the commissioning of the Pipeline, with the award of the principal contract expected in January 2026;

o the procurement process for the contracting of a drilling rig and associated services for the drilling of the Chikumbi-1 well (CH-1) and workover of the Ntorya-1 well (NT-1) continues. All tenders have been received and APT is currently evaluating the tenders”

23 Jan RNS:

“We will provide a further operational update shortly"

Https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260128955144/en/Maurel-Prom-Activity-for-the-year-2025

“The rig is now mobilised on site for the three-well drilling campaign. The spud initially planned for December will now take place during the first half of February. These wells will sustainably increase the gross production potential of the field, which currently stands at around 100 mmcfd, beyond the 130 mmcfd capacity of the facilities”