Member Info for Ufufuo

Nope. 4hrs old.

This is interesting on the demand side:

https://dailynews.co.tz/coast-region-to-become-manufacturing-hub/

“PLANS to transform the Coast Region into Tanzania’s LEADING MANUFACTURING and logistics HUB are at an advanced stage”

“Prof Mkumbo further disclosed that 60 additional investment plots at BEMC have already been allocated and are ready for investors”

“Earlier, Tanzania Investment and Special Economic Zones Authority (TISEZA) Executive Director Mr Gilead Teri named the first six licensed companies and outlined their planned investments”

“He said Canary Industries Limited is expected to invest 1bn/- in food-grade packaging to support value addition for domestic products”

Other investors include Grosso Engineering and Fabricators Limited, which will invest 5.2 million US dollars (over 12bn/-) in hot-dip galvanising; Novara Global Steel Limited, investing 8 million US dollars (about 20bn/-) in iron product manufacturing; and Jaribu Cashews Production Limited, which will invest 5 million US dollars (over 12bn/-) in cashew and coffee value addition”

“Mr Teri said Shah Steel Global will invest 5 million US dollars (over 12bn/-) in ferro-alloy manufacturing, while MCGA Auto Limited plans to inject 50 million US dollars (over 123bn/-) into vehicle assembly. He noted that the combined capital of the six companies exceeds 180bn/-“

“According to Mr Teri, the car assembly project alone, which aims to reduce vehicle imports, is expected to create about 1,000 direct jobs and more than 3,500 indirect jobs”

“Looking ahead, he said BEMC will involve both local and foreign investors, with the aim of achieving a cumulative investment of 8.5tri/- once the project reaches full operational capacity”

“Mr Teri stressed that all six investors are required to commence operations within one year, warning that licences would be revoked for those who fail to honour contractual obligations”

Consider that in the context of this:

https://constructionreviewonline.com/tanzania-to-construct-30km-pipeline-from-dar-es-salaam-to-bagamoyo/

“The government of Tanzania has announced plans to construct a 30km pipeline network from the capital Dar es Salaam to the nearby town of Bagamoyo. This is in line with the government’s plans to extend its natural gas supply network in order to provide cheaper energy for factories and households.”

“Bagamoyo, a fast-growing town in Eastern Tanzania is home to a range of medium-sized factories which produce various products including beverages and steel metals. Moreover, Tanzania is currently pushing to increase the uptake of natural gas compared to other forms of energy”

The current valuation disconnect you’re pointing out is a standard feature of the exploration lifecycle. The market is notoriously inefficient at this stage, often refusing to price in strategic value until the drill bit turns and first gas flows. This price lag is exactly what creates the extraordinary opportunity! Historical precedents show the market consistently undervalues such assets right up until the re-rate occurs—just look at these examples:

1. COVE ENERGY

• Stage 1 (2009 @~12p): Acquired 8.5% interest in Mozambique

• Stage 2 (2010 @~40p): Discovery. Windjammer well hits giant field. "East African Gas Story" born

• Stage 3 (2012 @~240p): Bidding War. Acquired for £1.2 Billion ($1.9B) after Shell/PTTEP war

READ ACROSS: Aminex sits in the same strategic coastal gas trend. Cove re-rated ~20x in 3 years

2. HARDMAN RESOURCES - "Free Carry" Parallel

• Stage 1 (2001 @~A$0.20): Scepticism. Early Mauritania discoveries but doubts on funding

• Stage 2 (2003 @~A$0.80): Carry Rerate. Secured partner (Woodside) to carry development costs

• Stage 3 (2007 @~A$2.02): Acquired by Tullow Oil for A$1.47 Billion

READ ACROSS: Hardman proved that a junior can reach a billion-dollar exit without dilution if they are fully carried (like the $140M Ruvuma carry)

3. AFRICA OIL CORP - "Geological" Parallel

• Stage 1 (2010 @~C$0.80): Entering the East African Rift (Kenya/Ethiopia)

• Stage 2 (2012 @~C$10.50): Discovery. Ngamia-1 Discovery confirms rift-basin model works

• Stage 3 (2013 @~C$8.00+): Plateau. Established as a major regional player

READ ACROSS: A ~13x increase driven by proving the geological model—exactly what the CH-1 well aims to do for the Ruvuma stacked sands

4. HERITAGE OIL - "Connectivity" Parallel

• Stage 1 (2004 @~30p): Discount. Uganda acreage assumed "stranded"

• Stage 2 (2009 @~250p): Connectivity. Drilled wells proving a massive, linked basin

• Stage 3 (2010 @~550p): Asset Sale. Sold assets to Tullow for $1.45 Billion

READ ACROSS: Proving basin connectivity (as expected for CH-1) was the specific trigger for Heritage’s ~18x gain

5. PANOCEAN ENERGY - "Utility" Parallel

• Stage 1 (2002 @ ~C$4.00): Production. Established, steady production growth in Gabon

• Stage 2 (2005 @ ~C$30.00): Expansion. Ramped up volumes; market valued the cash flow

• Stage 3 (2006 @ ~C$60.00+): Exit. Acquired by Addax for C$1.6 Billion ($1.4B)

READ ACROSS: Proved that the market eventually pays huge multiples for "established" African utility cash flow—resulting here in a ~15x gain

6. TULLOW OIL - "Super-Scale Asset" Parallel

• Stage 1 (2000 @ ~14p): Small Cap. A small, diversified explorer

• Stage 2 (2007 @ ~400p): Basin Master. Opened Ghana (Jubilee) and Uganda

• Stage 3 (2012 @ ~1,400p): Peak. Became the dominant E&P player in Africa

READ ACROSS: A 100x return over a decade, proving that establishing a new major gas field in Africa (as Aminex is doing in Ruv

Industries, homes, institutions, cars…now ships. It’s all about that gas…they literally can’t get enough of it! 😁

Happy New Year!

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/historic-docking-as-dar-welcomes-gas-powered-vessel-5313458

Yes mjapac, it’s just a shame that Shard:

* is using a conservative gas sales price of $3.8/mcf (I confirmed that with them)

* is not accounting for any sales to industry (which would be at considerably higher prices).

* is not accounting for any sales of condensate (again, very valuable).

* is assuming a production plateau of considerably less than 20 years. Whereas, last year's AGM presentation specifically said "20+ years +" (for 3.45 TCF) - yes, they added the two + signs!

* is not accounting in any scenario for the proposed extended production horizon of 35 years.

* is modelling the field reaching production plateau of 280mmscf/d by either 2033 or 2036. However, ARA says 280mmscf/d to be reached within 5 years of 1st gas (Q3 2026) – So, by Q3 2031. As Shard is using an NPV12 discount rate, estimating the doubling of production (and therefore revenues) from 140mmscf/d to280mmscf/d ~2yrs to 5yrs later has a huge impact on valuations.

* is not accounting for 7.95 TCF GIIP for Ntorya on CH-1 success case - which would definitely enable a higher production plateau - and this would be needed to produce and sell as much of the gas as possible withing the licence period (more like 700mmscf/d).

* is not accounting for the 'tax shield' in early years due to revenues received as $104M loan capital repayment from Ndovu & $119M Tax Losses. A huge impact as this boosts initial years of net revenues and so adds more to valuation considering NPV12 being applied.

Https://businessinsider.co.tz/ntorya-project-boosts-tanzanias-gas-economy/

Prosciutto frequently likes to refer to Aminex as a “shell” and to question why ARA clearly wants the company to continue to exist and to thrive. He/she is at it again today. Let's help explain the situation for prosciutto…

Aminex is far from a “shell” — it holds some of the most strategic gas assets in Tanzania, delivering unique value to ARA Petroleum and shareholders:

NTORYA:

Ntorya (Ruvuma PSA): Aminex’s 25% stake in Ntorya offers exposure to what is reputedly East Africa’s largest onshore gas field, with a current high confidence area containing 3.45 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas (expected to increase to 7.95 tcf on success case with CH1) and a 25-year development licence. Aminex remains the only publicly listed vehicle providing access to this exceptional Tanzanian resource.

KILIWANI:

Kiliwani North (63.8% interest): Aminex has reinterpreted existing 2D seismic to identify drilling targets. 88 BCF unrisked mean GIIP across Kiliwani North and Kiliwani South. Existing Development License until 2036. Aminex has recently confirmed that they will resume work at Kiliwani once revenues are incoming from Ntorya.

NYUNI:

Nyuni Area PSA: Aminex holds 93% working interest with best estimate prospective resources over 4.8 TCF. Adjacent blocks boast approximately 80% drilling success, bolstering Nyuni’s prospectivity. In the last Annual Report, Aminex confirmed:

“Significant discoveries have been made in several accumulations within adjacent blocks with reported volumes in excess of 50 TCF having been discovered with a high drilling success rate. Several discoveries have been made by the Shell-led consortium in Blocks 1 and 4 lying approximately 50 kms from the Nyuni Area PSA”.

The report also stated the following regarding Nyuni:

“In 2024, Aminex was encouraged to submit a revised proposal incorporating a much reduced work programme to continue exploration activity on the PSA. A revised programme was submitted to TPDC in late 2024 for consideration whilst discussions continue”

TAX EFFICIENCY:

Aminex holds over $115 million in unspent tax losses, a powerful deferred tax asset capable of sheltering future profits from Ntorya, significantly bolstering post-tax cash flow and returns.

Aminex’s $103 million loan to wholly owned Ndovu Resources is repayable from Ntorya production income. Crucially, loan repayments are treated as capital return and should be exempt from income tax and so further enhancing shareholder cash flows. Confirmed at AGM.

RUVUMA FARM-OUT & FREE CARRY:

Aminex farmed out 50% of its original 75% Ruvuma interest to ARA Petroleum. ARA carries Aminex’s share of development costs through to production, a $35 million+ commitment that de-risks Aminex’s financial exposure.

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP & RISK SHARING:

Through its listed status, Aminex offers ARA a mechanism to share exploration and development risk with Aminex shareholders. Future exploration activities can be funded via Aminex, with ARA potentially increasing its stake through farm-outs similar to the Ntorya arrangement.

Aminex shareholders will only support such risk-sharing if they stand to substantially benefit financially from successful exploration and development outcomes. This aligns ARA’s interests with those of Aminex shareholders, providing an incentive for ARA to help ensure Aminex profits significantly from the Ntorya project and beyond.

VALUE TO ARA PETROLEUM:

Aminex’s publicly traded shares offer a transparent market valuation and “free carry” style gains as the asset value grows, without incremental capital demands.

The company’s existing licences, regulatory approvals, and Tanzania partnerships reduce project risk.

Aminex’s listed status grants ARA unique advantages, including access to capital markets, tax-efficient transaction structuring under Omani tax law (15% income tax, no withholding tax on dividends, exemption on capital gains from listed shares), and liquidity for portfolio management, benefits hard to replicate for a private company.

VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS:

Aminex uniquely provides public market access to Tanzania’s world class and strategically important onshore gas project at Ntorya, with production, development, and exploration potential across its other licences.

Large tax losses, tax-efficient loan repayments, development carry, and asset scale set Aminex apart as a compelling investment with strong upside.

Aminex provides a synergistic platform where ARA and public shareholders collectively share exploration risk and reward, with aligned incentives driving Aminex’s profitability and long-term growth. This partnership model, enabled through Aminex’s public listing, provides a rare investment opportunity in Africa’s natural gas sector.

In summary, Aminex is deeply embedded in Tanzania (which is becoming East Africa’s ‘Energy Hub’), with valuable assets, poised to deliver real financial and strategic value to partners and shareholders alike — far from a shell, it is a rare investment gateway into Africa’s burgeoning natural gas sector with multiple shareholder value enhancing attributes.

Https://www.instagram.com/p/DSkZJCuDNhw/

What to expect in 2026:

• New PSAs & exploration work programs

• Faster CNG adoption for fleets & SMEs

• Early build-out of small-scale LNG for inland industries

Where the opportunities are:

Gas-to-industry, CNG mobility corridors, small-scale LNG logistics, upstream services, and digital/HSSE solutions.

“2026 is a key window to position early”

You heard the man!

Https://www.tanzaniainvest.com/energy/ntorya-gas-pipeline-development-update

So very true blackgold. Obviously it varies depending on exchange rates but I believe in today’s money, 120 billion TZ shillings is just over $48 million USD.

As you say, they will have spent a very big chunk of that on fabrication of the pipeline sections. No going back now!

There are plenty of examples of African oil and gas companies where the share price has lingered at ridiculously low prices, dogged by skepticism - then increasing 10 x or more as ground is broken, the physical infrastructure is seen being put in place and production starts.

Aminex is just about to go on that same journey I believe.

That’s right P26. This is not a re-run of NT-2. The asset is now so huge and the project has been de-risked and broadened in scope to such an extent that any thinking along the lines of:

“the price was X for NT-2, the price is Y now and the market often supports a re-rate of around 3 x for a big drill. So a 3 bagger from pre spud levels, so long as it’s around or slightly above NT-2 levels, sounds reasonable”

…is far too crude and in no way takes account of the massive increase in resources (I should have written “increased by over 2,700%” BTW!), or the situation with GSA, Development License, Field Development Plan, etc and resources uplift targeted by CH-1.

People would be well advised to arm themselves with the facts to avoid missing out on the true potential here.

Evening Watchouse,

Earlier, you mentioned "Still feasible to be a 10x bagger at this price. I did work out before that the peak of 7.5/8p on last drill results would be now around 6p as more shares in circulation. But this time, we have so much more going for us so has to be 10p plus in my view"

You are absolutely right...

Pre NT-2 resource estimates were 0.155 TCF GIIP. Current estimates are 16.4 TCF GIIP. So, estimated resources are 105.81 times greater now than they were then.

However, Aminex gave away a 50% share to secure the $140m (gross) free carry and $5m cash. So, Aminex’s net share of assets increased from 0.116 TCF (75% of 0.155) to 4.1 TCF now (25% of 16.4). So, 35.3 times greater.

However, as you mention, there were also fewer shares in issue at the time of the 0.155 TCF estimate - 3,475,897,030 Ordinary shares in issue (as at 31 Dec 2016), compared with 4,468,501,044 now.

Factoring the increase in size of estimated net resources to account for the increase in shares in issue, the result is that Aminex’s net share of resources is still 27.43 times greater now – per share - than pre NT-2.

This means that for every single share an investor held in 2016, the gas “backing" that share has increased by over 2,600%, even after accounting for the Aminex’s reduced share in the project following the farmout and the increased shares in issue.

On top of that, CH1 is targeting 4.5 TCF - a much, much bigger target than NT2 ever was. Plus, a much higher COS after 3D seismic and two commercial discoveries already at Ntorya. Pipeline construction starting. GSA signed. Development License granted. Field Development Plan agreed with 13 or 14 more drills and agreed ramp up to 280mmscf/d and beyond. Etc, etc, etc.

This is a 10 bagger +++ all day long once the market sees the pipeline being built and CH-1 being drilled.

I meant to clarify…onshore or offshore…when you consider the cost differential

CH-1 is probably the most significant natural gas well accessible to stock market investors, globally, of all time P26 😉

I like that

https://www.independent.co.ug/motorists-all-aboard-tanzanias-clean-gas-push/

Https://energycapitalpower.com/tanzanias-ntorya-gas-project-advances-toward-2026-start-up/

I was just reflecting on the amount being spent on the Ntorya Project right now.

The Tanzanians have committed to spend 120 billion TZS on the pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba. That’s about $48 million. The fabrication of the pipeline itself will have been a big chunk of that and is already done.

Then, ARA is set to spend more than $50 million on the project in 2026. Including the workover of NT1, the drilling of CH1 and everything required to put those 2 wells plus NT2 into production.

That’s $100 million being spent. That’s after the costs of the 3D seismic and other stuff they’ve spent money on recently including wellheads, casings, tubulars etc.

Imagine if Aminex didn’t have the farmout and the Tanzanians hadn’t agreed to pay for the pipeline.

Moreover, the carry balance as at 31 December 2024 was US$29.2 million. So, $5.8 million net (Aminex share) had been spent, or $23.2 million gross. Plus whatever has been spent in 2025.

So, more than $125 million will have been spent by Q3 next year.

It’s making me appreciate the double dilution protection that the free carry and the investment from the Tanzanians offers. We would have been diluted to oblivion otherwise. These financial arrangements are a huge luxury for such a small oil and gas explorer.

Anyway, bring on 2026 for first revenues and the long awaited CH1 drill!

According to Gemini AI the 177MW generated by4 x Siemens turbines will probably require about 40mmsc/d of gas:

Using four Siemens turbines to produce 177 MW suggests each turbine is outputting approximately 44.25 MW.

Based on that power rating, you are likely looking at the Siemens SGT-800 gas turbine (which ranges from 47 to 62 MW but is often configured or derated for specific environmental conditions) or the aeroderivative SGT-A45. These are world-class industrial turbines known for high efficiency.

Calculation for 4x Siemens Turbines (Simple Cycle)

In a Simple Cycle configuration (common for modular power plants), these turbines typically operate at an electrical efficiency of about 38% to 38.5%.

Heat Rate: A Siemens SGT-800 in simple cycle has a heat rate of approximately 8,900 to 9,100 BTU/kWh.

Energy Required: To produce 177,000 kW for 24 hours, the plant needs approximately 38.5 Billion BTUs per day.

Gas Volume: Using a standard natural gas energy density (approx. 1,020 BTU per cubic foot), the consumption is:

~38 to 40 mmscf/d (Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day).

If the plant includes a "Combined Cycle" (using exhaust heat to power a steam turbine), the efficiency would jump to ~55%, and your gas requirement would drop to roughly 26–28 mmscf/d. However, 177MW across four individual units is almost always a Simple Cycle setup for reliability and rapid start-up.

Tanzanian firm Raddy Energy Solution Limited has signed an agreement to procure four gas turbines worth $320 million from Sweden's Siemens Energy, in a move expected to add 177 megawatts to the national power grid and strengthen electricity reliability. The high-capacity turbines will be shipped to Tanzania and commissioned by the end of 2027.

Raddy Energy is a sister company to Raddy Fiber Manufacturing, based in Mkuranga, Coast Region. The turbine deal marks the first phase of Raddy Energy's longer-term expansion strategy, with the company targeting a total generation capacity of 1,000 megawatts by 2030. The planned capacity is expected to support Tanzania's growing domestic electricity demand while creating opportunities for power exports to neighbouring countries.

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/tanzania-s-raddy-energy-to-import-320m-siemens-gas-turbines-in-power-expansion-drive-5303416