Member Info for Ufufuo

Crucially, look at what happened when President Samia came to power in 2021 and opened the country up to investment. How did the companies react?

• Aminex/ARA in less than a year, equipment mobilisation and line clearance had started for the largest onshore 3D seismic campaign in East Africa. Data acquisition ran July 2022 to Oct 2022. The data was interpreted throughout 2023. Gas Sales Agreement signed Jan 2024. 25 Yr Development Licence formally handed over Sept 2024.

• Orca attempted two initiatives. Both failed:

o 3D Seismic Acquisition Program (2022–2023): Intended to map exploration targets to secure a license extension, this $20 million project was terminated in late 2023, resulting in a total capital write-off with zero new drilling targets identified. The matter went to court. Orca was found at fault and was ordered to pay damages to the contractor totalling $17.9 million.

o SS-7 Offshore Well Intervention (2024): to restore production from this shut-in well. Costs rose to $27m. Was abandoned Dec 2024 after failing to yield sustained gas flows.

By the time the contract came up for renewal, Tanzania had had enough. Orca had pulled more cash out of the country than they put in and hadn't made any meaningful progress in developing the field. They weren't "forced into submission"; the government simply refused to renew a 25-year contract with an operator too heavily focused on value extraction.

BOTTOM LINE

You have:

• One company that architected their own downfall with a failed strategic pivot

• One tale of a Board pushing through a lucrative buyout

• One expiring contract not getting renewed, due to a decades-long story of which started with frictions caused by a completely unique legacy style contract, followed by a perception of corporate greed driven by an open policy of value extraction (prioritised over investment).

It is clear therefore that the narrative that Scirocco, Orca, and Wentworth were "forced into submission" by the Tanzanians is completely factually incorrect.

VOTE OF CONFIDENCE

In addition, M&P operates without issues and is investing heavily in Tanzania. Amber Energy of UAE an Taifa Gas are keen to take over Songo Songo from Orca. ARA Petroleum talks of their very good relationship with the Tanzanians and are happy to invest millions in the development of Ruvuma.

Tanzania's energy sector is also experiencing validation from global heavyweights, with American supermajor Chevron and Russian state gas companies signalling interest. Also, the Equinor-Shell-ExxonMobil consortium pushing to finalize a $42 billion LNG mega-project, and Nigerian operator FIRST E&P wanting to explore the Mnazi Bay North Block.

Tanzania is increasingly seen as a good place to invest and has bold domestic and regional energy and natural gas ambitions. ARA and Aminex are at the heart of that.

BP, I don’t wish to offend but can I ask if you are from inherited wealth? You don’t seem to have a business background.

ARA anything other than full committed!??? Whaaaaaaaaat!??? Ha ha hah!

Are we talking about a different ARA to the one that was pictured, all smiles, at the offices of PURA this week!? You know, the meeting where they were all excitedly pawing over those images from the 3D seismic?

The same ARA that is busily constructing the CH-1 pad that is now very clearly visible from satellite images?

The same ARA that has confirmed to Aminex that it has already agreed in principle the contract for the provision of processing facilities at NT-2, CH-1 and NT-1?

The same ARA that has confirmed to Aminex that it will be signing the contract for the rig for CH-1 in Q2?! So, end of next month at the latest!

The same ARA that announced just 2 months ago that have gone on a big hiring spree for the following 10 roles for the Ruvuma project: Seismic Interpreter, Geomodeler, Petrophysicist, Reservoir Engineer, Production Supervisor, Drilling Engineer, Site Civil Engineer, Field Engineer, QHSE Site Supervisor, Logistics and Inventory Supervisor?!?

The same ARA that is pinching itself because it is operator of a multi-TCF onshore gas and condensate field, sitting pretty with a GSA and a 25-Year Development License and operating in a country that is:

* Rapidly building gas infrastructure (including Kinyerezi III, which is so huge it will double the country's gas-fired generating capacity).

* Actively moving forward with agreements to build export pipelines to Uganda, Kenya, and beyond.

* Pushing hard on gas for industries, homes, and vehicles.

The same ARA that has already invested many, many millions into their Aminex stake, the farmout, 3D seismic, establishing a team inTanzania, and the current civil works?! The same ARA that is now just a few short months away from seeing that massive investment turn into a money-printing machine?!

There is literally no way any sane person can honestly think that ARA is anything but 1,000% committed and locked in, ready for many very profitable years ahead. Having looked after Aminex through recent years, it is also very clear that Aminex will be at the party and reaping the rewards too.

It has been a journey. The destination is looking more fabulous than I had ever imagined. ARA clearly could not be more committed!

Hi everyone, I want to share the fact that the Aminex Investor Group on Telegram has uncovered clear satellite evidence that Kinyerezi III is ALREADY Under Construction. This single development strongly supports that ARA’s estimate that the 280MMscf/d plateau will be reached within 5 years of first gas (if not before); two to five years earlier than Shard is modelling.

• While there hasn't been a peep in the media or any official announcements , satellite images irrefutably confirm that the 1,000MW Kinyerezi III power plant has been under construction since February/March 2025.

• We are already 14 months into a build that typically takes 24 to 36 months to complete and operationalise for a plant of this scale.

• This 1,000MW combined cycle plant will likely require ~160 MMscf/d to operate.

• Because they broke ground 14 months ago, this additional gas demand will most likely be needed between Feb 2027 and Feb 2028.

Single Plant Set to Double Tanzania's Gas Power Capacity

• To put this in perspective, Tanzania's total existing gas-fired power production (both grid and off-grid) currently sits at 1,009.62 MW.

• Kinyerezi III alone is 1,000 MW.

• Knowing that a single plant is currently being built that will double the state's entire gas-fired capacity within the next 10 to 22 months is obviously a very big deal in itself.

• This isn't just a headline or an agreement; it is hard evidence that a huge source of demand for our natural gas is physically being built right now.

Shard Capital Must Rethink Their Pessimistic Estimates

• Shard Capital's reports have given us very conservative share price estimates. They recently adjusted their 12-month target range to 3.25-3.70p/share.

• Their DCF/NPV calculations heavily discount early years production. They base their targets on the assumption that the Ntorya plateau of 280 MMscf/d won't be reached until 2033 at best, or 2036 at worst. This is in stark contrast to ARA's guidance, which estimates the plateau will be reached by H2 2031.

• Shard's thesis revolves around tracking a few key government initiatives and projects, one of which is Kinyerezi III. However, they used completely incorrect estimates for the plant (modelling it at 300MW instead of 1,000MW) and incorrectly stated that the project was "yet to start construction".

• With the correct figures, Kinyerezi III is actually the 2nd biggest driver of demand among the projects they highlight.

• This single plant ALONE represents over 57% of the total 280 MMscf/d plateau that Shard was worried about reaching.

Satellite images can be seen here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hxNpUQ48Sq-6AU4D7xCkf0YM-z3qbqay/view?usp=drive_link

To anyone concerned over Mackay's share sale, look at the UK Market Abuse Regulation (UK MAR) rules and the basic maths. It seems clear to me that his share sale was a smart financial move to fund the purchase of his available options, not a red flag.

1. FINANCIAL LOGIC

He sold his 2,654,988 shares at 2.16p, raising roughly £57,300. At the 1.4p strike price, that cash buys over 4 million options before taxes. Even after heavily discounting for HMRC (Income Tax/NI on the gain) and dealing charges, he can still comfortably buy back over 3 million shares. This maneuver realistically allows him to increase his total shareholding by ~ 20% to 30%, without spending a single extra penny of his own money.

2. OPTIONS DEADLINE

Mackay holds 20m options at 1.4p that expire this November. He needs cash to exercise them by then or he loses them.

3. WHY SELL NOW?

The Annual Report just dropped. This creates a brief "open window" where the market is fully informed, allowing him to get formal Board clearance to trade.

4. WHY HE CANNOT SELL LATER

If he waits to raise the cash, he risks getting completely locked out by UK MAR all the way to his November deadline:

• MAY/JUNE/JULY (PREP): The Board will receive non-public updates on CH-1 rig mobilisation and preparations forSept production. The absolute second he holds inside info, he is banned from trading.

• AUG/SEPT (EXECUTION & FINANCIALS): Likely timeframe that CH-1 is actively drilling and first production begins. PLUS, the mandatory 30-day financial closed period hits for the September Interims. Complete double blackout.

• OCT/NOV (ANALYSIS & RAMP UP): Even after the drill bit stops, Mackay will hold highly sensitive inside info regarding CH-1 drill results/analysis, early production ramp-up figures, and operational prep for the NT-1 rework.

BOTTOM LINE:

From June to November, Mackay is likely to be drowning in non-public, price-sensitive operational data. If he didn't sell immediately after the AR, he could be locked out until his options expired. This was probably his ONLY safe window to fund a 20%+ free upgrade to his shareholding.

This video gives an excellent summary of Tanzania's growth prospects. It does also highlight some risks. A very nice summary:

https://youtu.be/sBKakh14ASo

Hi wookie, just open the Telegram app and search for Aminex Investor Group 👍

This article just posted says Danieli Group are looking at a EUR 1.5 billion steel plant in Mtwara. Right in our back yard. It states:

"Giacomo Mareschi Danieli, Chief Executive Officer of Danieli Group, stated that the company sees strong potential in Tanzania due to its natural resources, including gas and mineral ore, as well as its growing market and regional position".

https://www.tanzaniainvest.com/industry/mtwara-steel-plant-investment-danieli

This is an interesting World Bank and TPDC led project for distribution of natural gas in Tanzania: https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/corporate-procurement/business-opportunities/administrative-procurement/rfxnow-2014391-tanzania-city-natural-gas-distribution-ppp-project

Some key points:

• The Project aims at distributing natural gas to different end users such as households; industries; institutions and vehicles

• The project will encompass the construction and commissioning as well as operation of natural gas distribution infrastructures and sale of natural gas to end users

• The project will be implemented in phases covering the whole country

• Phase I will cover three (3) regions that is Dar es Salaam; Lindi and Mtwara. The implementation of this phase will be done in two (2) lots; where Lot 1 will cover Dar es Salaam region which will be subdivided into three zones namely Kinondoni and Ubungo districts; Ilala district; and Temeke and Kigamboni districts; and Lot 2 will cover Lindi and Mtwara municipalities.

Most interesting bit to me is that the scope is "COVERING THE WHOLE COUNTRY"

Closing date for initial responses from interested parties is 20th April 2026.

Coincidentally, 10 mins before you posted that, I posted this on Telegram…

“Presumably the final well might take a bit longer to drill (I added a couple of weeks in the guesstimates timelines earlier).

It will then take much longer to test as it’s an exploration well - but the rig shouldn’t be needed for that”

So, I think that in the same way that the first well has been drilled but the minister is saying it will be completed in 7 days, I think he may be talking all wells drilled, tested (and ready for production where applicable).

In which case, the rig should still be available to us much sooner.

M&P Annual Results issued today

“On the Mnazi Bay permit, drilling of the MB-5 well, the first well drilled on the licence since 2014, began on 6 February 2026. The well encountered the expected reservoir. It is currently being completed and will increase the field’s production potential from 100 to 130 mmcfd (100%). The drilling campaign will continue with the MS-2X development well, which will be followed by the KASA-1X exploration well”

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260311258609/en/Maurel-Prom-2025-Annual-Results

So, presumably just testing and getting it ready for production left to do on that one.

An even clearer picture of status!

I was just posting a follow up thought on Telegram…

Yes, to me it is hugely significant. Until now, I couldn’t be sure that M&P had started drilling before the Energy Minister visit less than 2 weeks ago. During that event he talked about launching drilling programmes after all.

Considering that, plus the fact we haven’t had confirmation of our rig contract, I was keeping an open mind about the risk of a winter 2026 or even start of 2027 drill.

The timing of the M&P drilling gives us a sort of backstop though - it’s possible ARA will bring in another rig and drill sooner (looking less likely with every week that passes) - but if we work out when the M&P campaign will finish, it gives us a realistic worst case.

• Drill 1 complete by 19th Mar

• 1 week relocate. Start Drill 2 by 26th Mar. Complete by 7th May (6weeks)

• 1 week relocate. Start drill 3 by 14th May. Complete by 25th June (6wks) to 9th July (8wks). Allowing for potentially deeper 3rd drill.

Then it’s a case of how long it would take to relocate the rig to Ntorya and to set up…brief research suggests about 2 weeks is possible.

That means we could theoretically be ready to start drilling 2nd half of July. August probably more realistic.

If we do end up using the same rig as M&P, it is encouraging to see that they are making excellent progress over there.

Translating these 2 sources, it transpires that the campaign as a whole is about 27% complete and “The first well we expect to be completed within the next seven days”

This one confirms they started drilling on 6th Feb:

https://fullshangweblog.co.tz/2026/03/11/makame-miradi-ya-mafuta-na-gesi-inazidi-kuimarisha-sekta-ya-nishati-nchini/

This one confirms the first well is to be finished in next 7 days:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVv51XXErdc/

It makes our options look much more promising for a CH-1 drill in late summer / early autumn.

Https://abdas.org/2026/03/04/tanzanias-ntorya-madimba-pipeline-project-set-to-strengthen-national-power-supply/?amp=1

An interesting comment in this article:

“As stated in a project report submitted to the minister, gas production at Ntorya is anticipated to commence in September of this year, prior to the OVERALL COMPLETION OF THE PROJECT, WHICH IS SET FOR DECEMBER. The minister underscored the necessity of achieving the September production target without exception”

To me, that most likely suggests that all 3 wells of the ‘Initial Phase’ are to be hooked up and producing by Christmas.

Working back, that would imply a UK summertime drill.

So…

💥 The pipeline is 35% complete!

💥 Exact target date set for completion (30th Sept)

💥 2nd media source reiterates “wells” plural

💥 Industrial investors have been submitting applications for the gas (specifically referring to Ntorya). That’s big!

Https://www.nishati.go.tz/news/ndejembi-bomba-la-gesi-ntorya-madimba-likamilike-ifikapo-septemba-2026

NTORYA > MADIMBA PIPELINE 35% COMPLETE

Minister of Energy, Hon. Deogratius Ndejembi has called on the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) to fully supervise the Contractor implementing the project to transport natural gas from the Ntorya discovery area to the Madimba Natural Gas Processing Plant to ensure its completion by September 2026

He said this today, February 27, 2026 in Mtwara region immediately after laying the foundation stone of the Ntorya-Madimba natural gas pipeline project, whose implementation has reached 35 percent, explaining that the project will contribute to increasing the use of natural gas and stimulating economic growth

“We have set a ‘target’ of the month of September to ensure that these wells produce gas and connect to the Madimba main pipeline, by that time there should be no other incidents, so that this does not happen, we need high-quality management to ensure that TPDC is always on site, Tanzanians want to see development,” Ndejembi stressed

In addition, Ndejembi has called on TPDC experts to ensure that all activities are carried out with quality and in consideration the agreed time frame in the contract, noting that the project will stimulate the growth of the gas sector by increasing electricity production, attracting investment and promoting industries that will generate jobs for Tanzanians

He urged TPDC to accelerate the search and development of new wells to ensure adequate gas availability, especially considering that the transportation infrastructure already exists in the country, as well as fully implementing social responsibility projects in the project areas in collaboration with the citizens to solve challenges such as the construction of classrooms, drilling of water wells and other projects according to the needs of the relevant area

Furthermore, Minister Ndejembi said that the Government led by His Excellency President Dr. Samia Suluhu Hassan through the National Development Vision 2050 has aimed to increase the availability and use of natural gas, a step that will enable the achievement of the goal of generating 8000 megawatts of electricity by 2030

Previously, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Energy in charge of Oil and Gas Dr. James Mataragio said the Ntorya block will increase the availability of natural gas, noting that the demand for the gas is increasing every day and industrial investors have been submitting applications for the gas.

The pipeline project to transport crude natural gas from the Ntorya block was signed on July 3, 2025 between TPDC and the contractor companies China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co. Ltd. and China Petroleum Technology & Development Corporation at a value of US $ 46.8 million and is expected to be completed by September 30, 2026.

Https://www.instagram.com/p/DVQkav0jV1u/?img_index=2

Highlights:

The Minister of Energy, Hon. Deogratius Ndejembi has arrived in Mtwara Region for a working visit and was received by the Acting Regional Commissioner of Mtwara, Hon. Abdallah Mwaipaya along with leaders of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi and the Government, today, 27 February 2026.

During the visit, Minister Ndejembi was accompanied by the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Energy in charge of Oil and Gas, Dr. James Mataragio along with experts from the Ministry of Energy and Institutions that handle and manage oil and gas activities in the country.

While in the region, Minister Ndejembi WILL INSPECT AND LAUNCH VARIOUS NATURAL GAS PROJECTS , INCLUDING THE LAUNCH OF THE DRILLING exercise to increase natural gas production as well as research wells to increase natural gas reserves in the Mnazi Bay AND NTORYA BLOCKS.

https://www.instagram.com/p/dvob3l6cpr7/

this article just posted is a great reminder of the scale of ambition (including near term targets) and progress being made for energy & clean cooking in tz. highlights:

tanzania aims for 80 percent of its population to use clean cooking energy by 2034.

a more immediate national energy plan targets a 75 per cent transition rate by 2030.

the government has placed a particular emphasis on large-scale institutions that serve over 100 people.

this initiative includes prisons, military camps, schools, and major markets.

significant progress has also been recorded in rural electrification.

electricity has now reached all 12,318 villages in mainland tanzania, raising the overall national access rate to 85.5 percent.

the country’s current generation capacity stands at 4,437 megawatts.

officials expect this figure to rise to 8,000 megawatts by 2030 to meet growing industrial and domestic demand.

also, are you on the aminex investor telegram group? a lot of news and research gets posted there before anywhere else. some of which only ever gets posted on the group. don’t miss out! link to join: *************aminexinvestorgroup

Https://russiaspivottoasia.com/russia-tanzania-discuss-trade-investment-as-bilateral-trade-increases-20-in-2025/

“We know that Tanzania is interested in establishing gas exports. Large Russian companies are ready for any kind of cooperation. We are talking about joint projects in the field of production and export of hydrocarbons and natural gas”

Https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/uganda-and-tanzania-fast-track-refined-petroleum-pipeline-deal

A lot in the news in last 48hrs about refined petroleum pipeline from Uganda to Tanzania and natural gas pipeline from Tanzania to Uganda.

With EACOP to be pumping oil from July this year, it’s clear that these follow on projects are now gaining momentum.