Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Indeed blackgold, and in the company stockbroker’s view, even a confirmed 2tcf may warrant a share price 4 to 6 times the value that it was at the time of the report (noted in report as 1.03p) - 4 times more for the same production rates as base case. 6 times more if the increased resources enabled higher production.
That was based on 2tcf!
Oh, Rojo! “Watch the SP is my advice” are your own words from a post on 24th of April, when the share price was at 1.125.
So, it is your own advice that you are so sharply dismissing and that you don’t want!!!! 😂
The share price has risen nearly 40% since you said them, so I can see why those words now offend your sensibilities!
Particularly as you subsequently said:
At 1.125, referring to the CPR “Without it, I don't see the SP going anywhere”.
At 1.15p “Well perky, if you're right and the licence is a done deal, it has had virtually no effect on the SP”
At 1.15p “No surprise if the SP slips back...”
At 1.35p “Not looking great is it ? You think we'll be back to 1p in a couple of weeks joyo?”
Oh dear! 😂
You sound very agitated again by the way.
I think we’ll be just fine. As posted yesterday:
There will be plenty of profit according to the company stockbrokers:
"Therefore, as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed:
1) Extending the plateau of 140mmscf/s for 20 years, would result in an increased average annual FCF of c$25mm/year, and an approximated asset value of £175mm (~4x the current market cap), using a simplified 12% discount on FCF in perpetuity model. We note that in this case only 1Tcf of resources will be utilised in the 20-year period.
2) Theoretically, increasing the plateau to 250mmscf/s for 20 years would effectively exploit almost all of the 2Tcf of gas in this 20-year period. This hypothetical case, in our estimate, would generate an average annual FCF of about $40mm, representing an approximated asset value of ~£275mm net to AEX (~6x the current market cap)"
So, Free Cash Flow for Aminex of somewhere between $25m and $40m if the 3D seismic results were 2tcf. Obviously, they were very much higher than that.
Crusty, I love you but you are a stubborn mule! 😂. They say it’s a multi TCF asset. A world class giant. CH1 will be a very big step in proving that potential up. I’ll leave it there as I’m not going to endlessly debate the same point with you. Uf ❤️
There will be plenty of profit according to the company stockbrokers:
"Therefore, as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed:
1) Extending the plateau of 140mmscf/s for 20 years, would result in an increased average annual FCF of c$25mm/year, and an approximated asset value of £175mm (~4x the current market cap), using a simplified 12% discount on FCF in perpetuity model. We note that in this case only 1Tcf of resources will be utilised in the 20-year period.
2) Theoretically, increasing the plateau to 250mmscf/s for 20 years would effectively exploit almost all of the 2Tcf of gas in this 20-year period. This hypothetical case, in our estimate, would generate an average annual FCF of about $40mm, representing an approximated asset value of ~£275mm net to AEX (~6x the current market cap)"
So, Free Cash Flow for Aminex of somewhere between $25m and $40m if the 3D seismic results were 2tcf. Obviously, they were very much higher than that.
We do have a guide for what CH1 might prove up based on the high quality 3D seismic. Following the 3D seismic, ARA said:
Estimates related to NT1 wells:
“A most-likely (approximating to P50) estimate of 3.45 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) is now believed to be potentially connected to the reservoir sandstones encountered in the Ntorya-1 (NT-1) and Ntorya-2 (NT-2) discovery wells”
Estimates related to CH1:
“An upside aggregated GIIP volume for the Ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1, is estimated by APT to be up to 7.95 Tcf”
So ARA reckon there is potentially an additional 4.5tcf associated with CH1. To be confirmed by the drilling of the well course!
Oh, I think we'll be just fine! From Shard Capital report of 25 May 2023:
"Therefore, as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed:
1) Extending the plateau of 140mmscf/s for 20 years, would result in an increased average annual FCF of c$25mm/year, and an approximated asset value of £175mm (~4x the current market cap), using a simplified 12% discount on FCF in perpetuity model. We note that in this case only 1Tcf of resources will be utilised in the 20-year period.
2) Theoretically, increasing the plateau to 250mmscf/s for 20 years would effectively exploit almost all of the 2Tcf of gas in this 20-year period. This hypothetical case, in our estimate, would generate an average annual FCF of about $40mm, representing an approximated asset value of ~£275mm net to AEX (~6x the current market cap)"
So, Free Cash Flow for Aminex of somewhere between $25m and $40m if the 3D seismic results were 2tcf. Obviously, they were very much higher than that.
No reason for it not to rise. We’ve had regular news. Last RNS was only on Friday.
Knowing the license is approved has given investors confidence that the negotiations and paperwork are done and announcement of drilling schedule is coming.
Aminex is also clearly undervalued considering the asset, impending first gas / revenues etc
Reasons for more people to want to buy than sell the = rising share price