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BG/RJ,
Election, good point, there will sure be some fanfare and blowing their own trumpet about the Gas.
Big push on clean cooking and energy... https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/inside-tanzania-s-sh4-6-trillion-clean-cooking-energy-plan-4617214
Which is why..."Tanzanian Government's, firm commitment to achieving first gas as soon as possible, with a deadline of no later than mid-2025. "
And with the Tanzanian election next year, they will certainly milk the progress of the Ntorya development for all its worth. 🙂😃
After thinking long and hard on the question of potential delays, and slept on it, I have concluded that I am the least concerned about the possibility of a delay than I have ever been.
The new Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Doto Biteko is the one driving this project, he's a man on a mission by the looks of it, he's definitely making things progress and at a much faster rate than any of his predecessors. He only went into office on 1 September 2023, yet has done more for the sector in 9 months that was done in many previous years.
I think the last thing anyone should be concerned about from this point onwards is delays. Of course they can happen due to unexpected circumstances, but everything the government has planned is easily achievable within the timescale given, so most unexpected circumstances should not actually cause any delay.
Whilst I'm confident, you'd be a fool not to think there could yet be another kick in the nuts. All looks as good as it can for now until official RNS and confirmation of schedule and driling plans.
I am a lot more positive now and things are heading in the right direction. All I'm saying is I cannot predict the future - and it' all a matter of opinion but given past experience there have been delays. Will be happy this time if there aren't but people on here seem to think it's a given that we will have gas being produced by the middle of 2025 and all I'm saying is given past delays this might not be the case - like I say time will tell!! Here'e hoping for many more weeks like last week.
Atb,
Northern
Only you and your one tick friends RoJo 😁
I followed your footsteps Edgar ! I have some early shares over at Hargreaves at 24p ish. Northern, when you talk about a Long Term Holder, it's interesting to discover who lays claim to that title. I received the one and only Aminex Dividend and wonder if anyone matches that record ? I also had some of those Warrants that were issued. Anyone else take them up I wonder ? p..s. they are now worthless by the way !
Many of us often wish you didn't get up in the morning johnnyflatearth !
I doubt it olddoodlebugger. You're probably optimistic. Time will of course tell.
If I continually worried about the past northern I wouldn't get up in the morning. What has gone before has gone this is a new era.
Past delays is my concern - I'm a very long term holder. Maybe my concerns are totally unfounded and I sincerely hope they arebut time will tell. The development licence might not now be too big an issue but we are still awaiting the RNS.
It's the promise re first gas by the middle of 2025 - like I say time will tell.
Atb,
Northern
To clarify from the same RNS you read...
"The TPDC is responsible for the Pipeline's construction. At the meeting with Aminex and ARA, it reiterated its, and the Tanzanian Government's, firm commitment to achieving first gas as soon as possible, with a deadline of no later than mid-2025. "
Sorry hit wrong button.
They do tend to leak things in their local press. Aminex have stated that they're looking at early to mid 25 for it to be production ready
Hope that helps
Up to 3 month dependent on terrain was suggested by a research enquiry to a Scottish pipe laying company a couple of years ago. Not sure on the individual timing stages and wouldn't expect to be told, although k owing Tanzania they do tend to leak things begore
Northern, what is not to be optimistic about?
Are you choosing not to notice how many times the government in Tanzania have told us that the license is being issued and has been passed by the cabinet? Apart from a handing over ceremony what more do you need? That is in the bag!
As for the CPR, you have been around long enough to know how long it took for the 3D analysis to take place. Also when the previous CPR was done. Now we are looking at an independent company more or less doing exactly the same work all be it over a more specific area. As that CPR company was only commissioned a couple of months ago, do you seriously expect to have the results on the table within a couple of months or so? While it would be nice to have it sooner, I don't see that coming before the autumn at earliest. No promises on time scale on that were placed.
Sorry mate on this occasion I just dont get what you are concerned for.
Fair enough – should have said no work has commenced on building the Pipeline. Yes the land has been secured. The pipeline has been designed. The Scope of Work completed and Tender docs prepared. The EIS is underway. So a lot of preparation work has been done. Anybody got any idea of when the pipeline will be ready to accept gas? If the tender goes out in July How long before bids are in? End Sept? How long to evaluate and award? By end Nov? How long to build? Three months? End Feb? Or is that being pessimistic?
Stockcheque,
I admire your optimism and at least they have given a rough guide, so have given indication of hopefully where they are heading in terms of progress. My only concern is the obvious one that we continually get promises - e.g. the CPR, the Development Licence(soon was the word used quite some time ago) so I would be more than pleasantly met it those timelines are met. Time will tell and fingers crossed that this time the promise of the date matches reality.
Atb,
Northern
Also, from the results "The TPDC is responsible for constructing the gas pipeline spur to Madimba and, we understand, it has made considerable progress." therefore "so no work has commenced" is not the case by a long way.
From the RNS:
The TPDC told Aminex and APT that:
● It has acquired the land required for the Pipeline.
● It has completed all front-end engineering and design works required for the construction of a 35km pipeline to connect to the TPDC's existing processing and transmission infrastructure at Madimba.
● It is in the process of completing the necessary Environmental Impact Study in relation to the construction of the Pipeline.
● It expects to issue a tender for the construction of the Pipeline in July 2024.
The TPDC is responsible for the Pipeline's construction. At the meeting with Aminex and ARA, it reiterated its, and the Tanzanian Government's, firm commitment to achieving first gas as soon as possible, with a deadline of no later than mid-2025
------------------------
I'd also just like to remind/advise that "achieving first gas as soon as possible" is not pipeline completion, it is much further on than just laying the pipeline, so we have to work backwards from mid-2025 to work out when the pipeline has to be finished construction, and then from there the latest that they could start constructing it to still hit the deadline, and from there we can calculate how much headroom they have between now and then to start it early.
Perhaps re-reading everything would be a good idea for you.
The position of the licence, the stage the pipeline is at, has been made quite clear over recent weeks through government announcements and RNS.
All pleasant and positive reading to enjoy in the garden on a nice sunny day like this.
Once fully researched andup to date, I'm sure you will realise the opportunities are here after seeing such a positive outlook. Good luck
Re the pipeline I thought I read that the ITT was still awaiting Government approval prior to issuance? If that's the case I'd assume the pipeline contract is yet to go to tender so no contract has been awarded, thus no contractor appointed so no work has commenced
Quite possibly, from the RNS:
"It (TPDC) has completed all front-end engineering and design works required for the construction of a 35km pipeline to connect to the TPDC's existing processing and transmission infrastructure at Madimba."
Having read the RNS a few times does anyone else take from it that the TPDC have already undertaken engineering works at Madimba in preparation for the 35km spur?