Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I forgot to mention,
you can see all these chart patterns yourself, if for each company on this site, you just click 'share charts' on the top panel, then select the longest time period (currently 5 years) , and they come into view.
The neckline doesn't have to be horizontal (like it was for AAL); it's allowed to slope a bit (as it does for BHP).
The pattern is supposed to bounce along this line. three bumps, being two shoulders of equal height, on either side, and the summit will be in the middle.
A reverse H&S is the same, but inverted, as with Anto. If it breaks through the neckline as the formation completes, then it will comprise a price breakout.
So with my amateur eye, I see copper and the rest of the commodities complex maybe pulling in different directions. Even the big boys don't yet know which way it will go, but just maybe, they are selling AAL to buy BHP and RIO, to hedge their bets. BHP and RIO give you copper exposure, without focusing your entire investment in one jurisdiction.
Nonetheless, at some point, AAL becomes cheap.
The 1661 buy in is looking good but trimmed
WOW
And I don't know why all my caps disappeared, and everything ended up in lower case.
as a minor aal investor, i am finding this a fascinating thread, because i am a buyer of more, if we can discern a price bottom.
thanks to toffappleton1 and all others for the views. i have a few observations to add.
for those who pay heed to head & shoulder chart formations, note the following:
aal had a classic 'in your face' head and shoulders formation that lasted a couple of years, that it violated a few months ago, falling below the neckline, that back then, portended the fall we just saw. i am surprised it took so long.
however, its peers tell a slightly different story. bhp had a similar formation, but only barely pierced the neckline, then got back above it. the h&s formation seems to have been rejected.
rio is even weirder; the shoulder-head-shoulder formation is ****ahoop; it was a head-shoulder-shoulder formation, invalidating the pattern.
i think the key to it all, is anto***asta, which i am taking as a proxy for the copper price. anto had a reverse head and shoulders formation in the same period. it is currently coming up, out of the right shoulder. if it breaks through the neckline, charting theory says it is going to soar higher.
here is where it all collides: these patterns suggest to me, that commodities miners in general are going to get a spanking, but copper is going to go the other way; it is primed to go up. rio and bhp are much closer correlated to copper than aal, so are caught between 2 forces, and the battle is still playing out. but aal's mix of products is less geared towards copper, so is being dragged the other way, not least by pgm metals and diamonds.
that might help explain what is going on. views welcome.
Bugger!
Two days out!
Doubling down is the surest way to ruin.
These boards are full of traders who claim to be constantly doubling/averaging down on losing positions.
Vodafone for example - imagine if you’d averaged down multiple times on that - as many have done.
Hit yet another all time low today - 65p
Beware - you will end up all in on a dog of a share and financially ruined. Stick to a sensible sized positions and diversify. Doubling down is the primary cause of stock market losses.
Ademcg
Agreed.
Although I usually invest for the medium/long term rather than trade, I try to cut any losses at 7-8%. Unfortunately, sometimes they take the elevator down and hit -20 or worse before I can place a sell! I might then hold for a while in hope of a recovery, but I rarely double down.
With POLY 4 coming onto the market, this share should rise to £50.00.
There has been a deliberate attempt to sabotage the company, maybe by insiders or rival fertiliser firms who are simple going to disappear.
I never go all in.
Scale into and out of positions as you are likely to get your entry and exit slightly wrong unless your a skilled trader.
I bought my first position on Friday, but when negative 10% was reached instead of doubling down I cut that position. With it only being a third of the total position I was wanting it's not a significant sum to lose, but I preserved most of my initial capital and when combined with other cash reserves will mean a re-entry ( at whatever point it settles) will be more impacful than any averaging down exercise.
Has a buy recommendation today (Tempus). Part of its logic is possible spin off of the Diamond business and other divestments, countered by lack of credibility with Wanblad giving doubts over ability to keep Woodsmith on track and so forth .. this share of course has had large historical swings but must be worth a medium term amass.
I have
Bought in on the day of the update, the shares had lost 6% which I thought represented good value, I went for a run only to return to a 13 % loss !!!!!!!!!!!
My worst / fastest / stupidest investment ever grrrrrr
But thinking of doubling up ?
I think it may be more to do with the fundamental differences between US businesses and markets and those in the UK (or at least FTSE 100). According to an old friend on Wall St, US investors focus on returns through growth and signs of reduced investment in the business tend to be punished. A company that prioritises investment for growth over distributing dividends is more likely to achieve a better valuation in the US than in UK. A company that fails to identify growth opportunities and so distributes excess to shareholders is more likely to be appreciated in UK.
You do realise that there are people from across the pond that can short UK shares too. The downward pressure amplified after US open on the day RNS came out.
Phoenixy
see
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B1XZS820/
there is NO evidence of a rise in AA short interest.
The collapse has been down to shorting pending the shambles by BOD. Hoping to see a bounce towards 1800-1900+ atleast in the next few days if not today.
And now that is why companies are now looking to list on New York stock exchange .Glencore ceo has said that they will achieve better valuation if they list the coal spin off there.
Also thought that all our stock market wants to do is hammer companies
Jeffrey,
I’m pleased to say the petition has received enough signatories to be considered.
When I feel the appropriate time has arrived I will send the petition to AA investor relations and a host of other blue chips that have been unjustifiably battered at the hands of the U.K. market. The misconduct of those responsible for valuing U.K. shares pose an existential threat to our stock market and economy, and must be addressed. Here’s the reply.
“Your petition is nearly ready to go.
***** ********* supported your petition – “Investigate the valuation mechanisations of UK stock markets.”.
5 people have supported your petition so far. We’re checking your petition to make sure it meets the petition standards. If it does, we’ll publish it. We have a very large number of petitions to check at the moment so it may take us longer than usual to check your petition. Thank you for your patience.
Once your petition has 21 signatures it won’t be able to add more until it’s been checked. So, please wait until it’s been checked and published before sharing it with lots more people.“
Toff, I have signed your petition.
Not hopeful, but the issues you raise do need to be more widely publicised.
HSBC says 'hold' and Tempus says 'buy'. Who will win, nobody knows, but PI's will be most likely to be the losers, if this continues to drift down lower. ☹️☹️☹️
I have signed
Doy
I largely agree with your sentiment about the present state of British politics, but I think you are unaware of how these petitions work.
After 10,000 signatures, petitions get a response from the government.
After 100,000 signatures, petitions are considered for debate in Parliament.
The government know full well the issues facing UK equity markets, which are in terminal demise. They must know the country would benefit if they could introduce measures to make London a desirable location for companies to list once more. I have a whole raft of measures in mind to reinvigorate UK markets. Unless radical measures aren’t taken, UK markets will fade into oblivion through lack of regulation and innovation.
Here is the link again for supporters to sign
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/653169/sponsors/new?token=tEsepLajN7mQE8SDiw07
Toff, you are suggesting the same government whose ‘watch’ both the UK market and the very wrong direction the country is going in ‘debate’ it all?!!!! And what do you think the outcome will be? People need tjj on wake up and smell the coffee, this country is not where it is because of Covid or any wars or any other reasons other that the totally corrupt, self obsessed, greedy, privileged minority that have stripped this country and the average man and woman to the bone. They do not care about the average person (actually, the majority of people) and it’ll take a damn sight more than a petition to change things for the better. You either play their game, don’t play their game or get a million people behind you and march to Parliament with your demands, then they might take you seriously!
Jeffrey,
These petitions are exclusively for ordinary citizens, not corporations. What makes this petition even more relèvent is the well publicised reluctance for any decent British company to list in the U.K.
U.K. indexes are toxic - engines of wealth destruction. If the government doesn’t address the reasons behind it, Britain will continue haemorrhaging its most dynamic companies to foreign markets, which will in turn, irreparably damage the U.K. economy.