Member Info for Dodgy_knee

Yes, the UK is going down. But this may bring new customers to B&M, as they are forced to go to budget stores.

The accompanying problem for all retail, is that of the likely increase in shoplifting.

We can still make life extremely uncomfortable for the BoD though.

None of them want to be charged with misconduct, if indeed that's what it is.

You want them to sneak into one of your other investments and do the same?

Just anecdotal information.

A couple of years back, there was a perceived heist of equity value from the shareholders by the directors, to the creditors. All arm's length, wink wink.

The share price had drifted down over time, from around 50p, to about a penny, when the dilution then happened. The share price drifted gradually back to around 10p after the dilution. I stress 'over time,' it wasn't a one day re-price.

I know that the shareholders believed themselves to have been swindled out of their equity, and there was a lot of chatter about taking the BoD to court. I lost track of the saga. Is anyone familiar with the story? Are there any lessons for Hummingbird investors?

It was recent, so is a bell-weather for current small-cap / AIM investor rights.

There also seems to be a trend, don't invest in companies beginning with Hu.

Having been involved with some business sales, an offer isn't concluded on a buyer-beware basis; it is all subject to an extensive review of the books by the buyer or his nominees.

If there were any hidden problems, the buyer has every right to walk away, and then the broader market must assume that something ugly was found.

So, if there is something ugly lurking unknown to the broader market, better to decline the offer, declare yourself undervalued, and nobody is the wiser.

I'm just describing a possible scenario.

I have been reflecting more on AAL. AAL is NOT interchangeable with RIO and BHP.

The latter two are greatly diversified both by product and jurisdiction, with a copper bias. AAL is southern Africa focused, and a major miner of PGM (Platinum group metals), which have taken a proper kicking (just look at what happened to the palladium price), and it is so heavily into the diamond business, that it owns DeBeers. The wholesale diamond price has fallen by about 70%, and may fall by another 70%. Read the recent Zerohedge article on that.

The two year head and shoulders pattern telegraphed in advance, this near 20% fall in AAL. This has been in the making for a looong time. The price then bounced back to 2000p, we can call that a resistance line, and I sold most of my AAL shares there (at a small %age loss I might add, but that's the head over-ruling the heart). This was a textbook retracement to resistance, and has bounced back down off it, so I think the biggest drop is yet to come.

I can't see what will turn the platinum/palladium price around, if cars are truly going all EV. Plus, diamond prices, have always been artificially manipulated UPWARDS, and I think the jig there is up. They can simply be made in a lab, at a fraction of the cost.

I don't know where the fair value for AAL should be, but I moot that any confidence to keep holding at this price ought be based in conviction in the prospects for the price of PGM and diamonds (which I don't have). You need to know why you think it is undervalued, if you sit tight or buy more. I'm open to well informed arguments.

GLTA.

@Toffappleton1,

It is true that since 1999, the FTSE has made no headway, but 1999 was at the time, a record peak.

The US stock markets themselves were flat between WW2 and the late 60's, with many believing that the DOW would never break thru 1000. Arguably it only did so through currency devaluation !!!

Compared to Blighty, I would say that the US markets are a far better example of rigging or absurdity. Their current aggregate PE ratios are off the charts. They are well into bubble territory.

I have heard this rationalised, on the basis of low interest rates, and because capital needs yield, and had nowhere else to go. But even the recent rise in interest rates could not pop the bubble.

But the comparator here is the Tokyo stock exchange from 1989, which popped spectacularly, and in 34 years, hasn't saw those highs again. I think at one point, it was down 90%.

So old Blighty might be stuck in the mud, But if a global crash kicks everything over, we could say that we would take a hit, but we would not be wiped out as individual investors, as say the yanks might be.

If there is manipulation, I think it's worse when it's to the upside. You think you would cash in, in time, but we wouldn't.

@toffappleton1,

I actually agree with you that the markets are rigged, but that should not be our default assumption. I do agree with you that n@ked shorting is a bane to us small investors.

So, we should look at price movements in this sector with open eyes, just to mull on things we maybe overlooked.

Note also that commodities might crash in a global downturn, because price is determined at the margins. We might get anything between a commodities supercycle, or an extended commodities slump.

I tender the view, that the big five FTSE commodities giants, need not and do not move together over the medium term, regardless that they seem to in the short term.. Out of those 5, we have four groups, and this is why the chart formations differ:

---ANTO is a) for copper, in b) a singular jurisdiction (Chile).

---BHP and RIO, have a lot of copper exposure, but in more diverse jurisdictions, plus they are multi-commodity miners.

---AAL is less on the copper, more into PGM and diamonds, both having had a spanking. What need now for PGM, when the car industry is going EV, so no need for catalytic converters. The recent AAL RNS might not have been the actual cause of the recent drop, but just the final straw. If traders seek copper exposure, AAL is cutting its production, ANTO involves too much jurisdictional risk, whereas RIO and BHP are still diversified companies with a lot of copper exposure.

---GLEN is on planet Mars as far as this sector goes. I understand they had a re-org, and their price history is a sort of reset.

I have no expertise in any of this. I just notice things and maybe collectively we can figure it out.

I forgot to mention,

you can see all these chart patterns yourself, if for each company on this site, you just click 'share charts' on the top panel, then select the longest time period (currently 5 years) , and they come into view.

The neckline doesn't have to be horizontal (like it was for AAL); it's allowed to slope a bit (as it does for BHP).

The pattern is supposed to bounce along this line. three bumps, being two shoulders of equal height, on either side, and the summit will be in the middle.

A reverse H&S is the same, but inverted, as with Anto. If it breaks through the neckline as the formation completes, then it will comprise a price breakout.

So with my amateur eye, I see copper and the rest of the commodities complex maybe pulling in different directions. Even the big boys don't yet know which way it will go, but just maybe, they are selling AAL to buy BHP and RIO, to hedge their bets. BHP and RIO give you copper exposure, without focusing your entire investment in one jurisdiction.

Nonetheless, at some point, AAL becomes cheap.

And I don't know why all my caps disappeared, and everything ended up in lower case.

as a minor aal investor, i am finding this a fascinating thread, because i am a buyer of more, if we can discern a price bottom.

thanks to toffappleton1 and all others for the views. i have a few observations to add.

for those who pay heed to head & shoulder chart formations, note the following:

aal had a classic 'in your face' head and shoulders formation that lasted a couple of years, that it violated a few months ago, falling below the neckline, that back then, portended the fall we just saw. i am surprised it took so long.

however, its peers tell a slightly different story. bhp had a similar formation, but only barely pierced the neckline, then got back above it. the h&s formation seems to have been rejected.

rio is even weirder; the shoulder-head-shoulder formation is ****ahoop; it was a head-shoulder-shoulder formation, invalidating the pattern.

i think the key to it all, is anto***asta, which i am taking as a proxy for the copper price. anto had a reverse head and shoulders formation in the same period. it is currently coming up, out of the right shoulder. if it breaks through the neckline, charting theory says it is going to soar higher.

here is where it all collides: these patterns suggest to me, that commodities miners in general are going to get a spanking, but copper is going to go the other way; it is primed to go up. rio and bhp are much closer correlated to copper than aal, so are caught between 2 forces, and the battle is still playing out. but aal's mix of products is less geared towards copper, so is being dragged the other way, not least by pgm metals and diamonds.

that might help explain what is going on. views welcome.

To buy clothes to go where?

The Market doesn't so far at least, like the news. Price down 10% as I type, effectively down to the offer price.

Paypoint already went through a formal government probe into anti-competitive practices, a couple of years ago, and was cleared. I don't have the details to hand, but I presume any complaint against them would have to go through the same body, which already cleared them.

That was my question. Is there a purpose to selling shares at a premium to the market price? If you know of such purpose then please share.

Do you think the board will be shocked when they have zero uptake, or are there really that many maroons out there who would pay 51p when the current price is 38p? It's like selling £5 notes for £10. Expect a big queue for that!

What is the real purpose of this ret@rded offering that's designed to fail? I start to lose confidence in a stock when the board behaves like this.

So I am advised in my ISA, that for every 5 shares of GCL that I hold, I qualify to buy another one for 51p, while the current market price is 38p, and has been under 50p for several months.
LOL - This looks totally ******ed. Why would anybody do that? What am I missing?

In the absence of news or broader market swings, I think the natural low for Boo today, is the 20 dma, but depending what data source you use, we might have had that already at 52.5 pence. I calc'd it at 52.3p, so my order was unfilled. Some people use the 21dma; I'm not sure which of the two these days is deemed superior or why.

Notwithstanding a drop in the overall market that whacks everything, this share has been grinding in a low zone for quite a while now, and is today at a noteworthy recent low.
It's an unloved share, thinly traded, lots of gloom and despondency; unless there are any further skeletons to declare, then today might prove to be a buying opportunity. I added some at 295p, as a return to the high 300's or even the 400's seems reasonable. It seems a bit undervalued, and it's also a bit niche; it might be a takeover target, or maybe it can pull itself out of its malaise by itself.
GLTA

Thanks shorters; I added ad 51p. Average cost for me now 85p. GLTA

Hat tip to pokerchips and compound for your recent posts below.
If somebody thinks otherwise, then please articulate, but my understand of all technical trading, including that of calls and puts, is that it drives price in the absence of news (the driver being a presumption of a shared understanding by those in the know, of where price will turn), whereas actionable news can change everything.
Pokerchips; do you think traders of calls and puts have access to info that we don't, or is it just a way to amplify hoped for gains, through margin?