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Me too.
I think they are downplaying the future potential of Woodsmith in order to keep a lid on the takeover price.
I hope that the project commences production by 2027, as planned.
OR
Any AGM chatter? Don’t think they can discuss deals though? Cheers
I’m assuming you’ve never tried to buy something, that wasn’t up for sale in the first place
I have stuck with POLY 4 since Sirius shambles. I reckon this is the perfect long term investment. The world may collapse around us but food production will still play an important part in our everyday activities. The Chinese showed a great deal of interest I in this product in the initial stages, so they will be watching this scenario with some envious interest. The game has just begun. Roll on a billion pound industry!
Seems to be growing.
If BHP have to take the unwanted SA assets to seal a deal, it will limit their offer. They might even walk away, as a large part of the attraction of their first offer was that AAL shareholders would be shouldering the risks of the disposals. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the offer is increased to 30, but here's hoping :)
Yuri.F To describe Woodsmith as endless delays in various stages is entirely unjust and unworthy of you. Anglo bought the mine in the early stages of construction, and decided from the start that they would take a slightly different approach to the engineering challenges.
What is being achieved here is a low impact, highly efficient mine that will access a world class resource for between fifty to one hundred years.
The huge financial aspects of the project can be justifiably articulated, but not the engineering.
My take on the saga is this. And for the record I got carried away with the story of riches. Losses now recouped. SXX design standards and procedures were probably significantly lower than AAL who may not have been as due diligent as they should have been. Once they took over Woodsmith and imposed their standards and methods the CAPEX requirements exploded. Not surprisingly the programme was extended to minimise cash burn. Alongside market forces on the existing businesses became a double whammy.
As for its future, Woodsmith does appear to have a future and one would hope any suitor has carried out its own due diligence on Woodsmith. BUT that could equally to mothball if copper is the prize or to complete with the copper boom and windfall.
I’m sitting tight at the moment.
Not a bad idea in my view
So more than a billion of impairment AAL announced a while ago, endless delays in various stages of project delivery doesn't raise any flags?
Would BHP be interested in the Woodsmith SXX mine, and who's ordering the polyhalite?
Interested 😁
Little holding.
HI picstloup, glad to hear that the recent bid talk has recouped much of your SXX losses, I remember your balanced and rational view of events re the SXX takeover. Sadly, an awful lot of others blamed anyone but themselves. Events subsequent to the SXX demise illustrate how far from ever being able to fund the development of the mine they were. My cautionary words then still underestimated that gulf by some distance. In this takeover bid Woodsmith is almost irrelevant, BHP want AAL 's copper and maybe additional iron ore , but I wouldn't be surprised if ,when the bid (or another from elsewhere) succeeds, that a partnership for woodsmith or even the whole thing is up for sale again.
From today's FT:
Who are Anglo American’s possible suitors?
https://archive.ph/Rohha
4 years ago I had a nearly £50k loss in Sirius/Woodsmith. Not life-altering, but depressing. I put all the take-over money, and a lot more, into Anglo. With the Thungela bonus, it has put me significantly into profit (roughly the same as the previous loss).
Woodsmith is an amazing resource. It is taking longer to bring to production than the inept Sirius team hoped, but rewards will come to those with patience. I'll certainly invest my profits in the AAL take-over on whoever finally gets Woodsmith.
Gertfrobe, who lost possibly the same as me on Sirius, spent the next two years digging up every negative story about Anglo s/he could find to post here. A really sad waste of energy.
The completion timelines at the Woodsmith mine have changed, primarily because the decision was taken when Anglo took control to avoid the cost incurred with multiple tunnel boring machines and focus on the slower but cheaper single TBM option.
There was a big piece on Woodsmith in the FT last November. Read it again today. That said the company hopes to get to $380 per tonne (due to the sustainability/organic premium) but that there are issues to achieving that. The other polyhalite producers in Boulby said they are lucky to get to $260 for their product because there's no market for it.
BUT, they are producing in limited quantities and AAL (and SXX previously) have signed a number of quite hefty offtake agreements. Quoting from that piece in the FT, BHP's CCO, Vandita Pant, said: "Crop production went up 50 per cent since 2000 and farmed land has only gone up 3 per cent [per capita]. To meet another 35 per cent increase [by 2050], we need to increase productivity even further. The key becomes crop yields.”
In that piece the FT described BHP as "another mining company that has entered the fertiliser business." So you sense BHP considers Woodsmith a hugely attractive feature to AAL's portfolio. And that's before you even get to the copper.
In essence, AAL (or whoever takes it over) must create that missing market for polyhalite, almost from scratch. But if they do then analysts have estimated the mine value at £13 billion (more than a third of current market cap) but if they fail to achieve that, then it is estimated to be worth c£1bn. So this is not a share without a fair dollop of risk - but the fact the world's biggest miner is prepared to take that risk is hugely encouraging to me...
RR
“Anglo’s completion timeline has been a little more realistic“
What about the new owners?
I
Gertfrobe. Sirius Minerals went bust four years ago and sold the project to Anglo, so quoting the former is pretty irrelevant. Anglo’s completion timeline has been a little more realistic. I’ll be happy if it’s up and running in a couple of years.
There is a lot of value here. Even if Anglo remains independent , it can’t go back to the inbred arrogance and complacency that has characterised successive Boards and managements. A break-up will yield at least £35 per share. And that’s the minimum third party offer that can be accepted.
The crystal ball used in planning this money pit needs a service.
“Fertiliser development company Sirius Minerals has unveiled the findings from the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for its North Yorkshire polyhalite project in UK, and expressed its plan to produce 20 million tonnes per annum of potash, with initial production of ten million tonnes per year.
The company expects to produce its first product in 2021, followed by the end of fit out and ramp-up with a ten million tonne per year rate expected in 2023”
Had aspirations to reach 20+ million tonnes.
OR
I seem to remember from back in the sirius minerals period that once completed it was said that Woodsmith would be worth 20bln
Not sure AAL is worth much more than claimed to be honest so sold out and bought into BHP. Agree the potash mine is what they are really after and would sell diamond mines and possibly steelmaking coal division. Good luck if You decide to stay in AAL for higher price, but there are limits on how much BHP are willing to pay.
AIUI, potash is much more work than polyhalite. The price is high due to Ukraine’s war with Russia.
OR
Potash is approx £1000/tonne