Member Info for Ben18

Not the right deal for Anglo shareholders. Never mind. Anglo is now wide open for a counteroffer that gives its own shareholders the acquisition premium.

What a week, what a month, what a year for Thor’s shareholders. Where does it leave us? At this valuation, we have moved decisively beyond Thor as the cash cow from a single mine. By my estimate, there is now c $200m in the valuation for the exploration story (including here the Segilola extension). So we are now a growth story. As it says in the name, Thor is again an exploration play - only this time with cash to do properly funded drilling campaigns and further acquisition deals. And with a spread of projects from early stage (Marahui), to near resource (Guitry), to near pfs (Douta) and brownfield (Segilola extension). Still all to play for.

IMO, a Board should only accept a third party offer if it is unable to proceed independently. The bidder has calculated that the target has the value of the offer plus considerably more to make its efforts worthwhile. But, if the company can proceed independently, that same value - seen by the bidder - is available to the current shareholders. I appreciate that this is heresy in the City where lots of people are earning fat fees and fund managers are bagging the short term boost to their underperforming funds. Unfortunately, Adriatic's board is full of big company bureaucrats, many overboarded (Rawlinson), so there is no one with the energy and intelligence to fight this offer on behalf of the existing shareholders.

???? Strange comment Jimbos??? Of course not.

I sold my JKX shares in 2019 immediately after the two oligarchs fired the Board that had rescued the company from bankruptcy and quadrupled the share price. In 2021, the buyout price was half that of 2019. I have steered well clear of all the ex-Soviet republics ever since.

There is a Thor connection. One of the Board members fired for being too successful is our current Chairman.

To get into production will take at least 8 years from here and another $1.5bn (assuming FN is still good for the $600m). So the answer to your question is obvious. They need a takeover.

Buybacks can make a lot of sense if you have a big holder who is trying to exit through a limited liquidity quote. My guess is that the failure of Thor to rerate is mainly due to the bid constantly being hit by such a seller. Though, obviously, the antics of the State Governor hasn’t helped.

I would advise Dan not to go to Mali. I don't think anybody would be willing to make a $160m ransom payment for him. YAN is now worthless.

Africa is not a country. It is 54 different countries.

Mali is a failing state, losing a war to Islamists. Gold mining is its major industry and plundering it is the only way for Mali's illegitimate Government to pay for its Russian mercenaries. Investors should write down the value of all mines in Mali to a few months free cashflow at most.

Nigeria has nothing in common with Mali. The Osun State issue is about petty corruption by a local politician which is a global phenomenon. Thor has been able to rely on the rule of law to defend itself, so far, without actual damage. There has certainly been reputational damage to Nigeria but, at over 20% of the Thor share price, the investor reaction is clearly overdone.

Stockcheque. Look into Piedmont. This is company whose very grand designs have come to nothing and whose share price has accordingly collapsed. There is some cash on the balance sheet but no positive cash flow. Their cash will be used to survive and pursue their North American projects. They could try to sell the Atlantic contracts, which might be good depending on the purchaser, or they could try to sell their off take in competition with Atlantic, not so good. Either way, Piedmont cannot perform on its capex commitment currently.

I wonder if one of the Pasofino "bidders" is Coris, or its owner. Watch out for a fire sale.

Reviewing this disappointing investment. If the company is to get out of its current hole:

1) it needs to get completely out of the relationship with Piedmont, a company without the financial capabilities (and interest?) to perform on its commitments, and urgently find a replacement (most likely from China);

2) It needs to hope for Parliamentary ratification soon where the continuing delay is damaging Ghana's image in the mining world - something doesn't smell right here.

3) It needs a rebound in the spodumene price.

All this is a tall order and may be beyond the capabilities of the current management and Board. But, at these levels, hardly worth selling.

Saturday’s Daily Mail.

The RNS title is completely misleading. There is no comprehensive or meaningful refinancing. All that has happened is that Coris agreed to put last quarter’s scheduled repayment on to the end of the current facility thus avoiding the loan becoming non-performing. Whilst it is good news that Coris did not choose to pull the plug this time, we start the 3Q with exactly the same situation and dilemma over this quarter’s scheduled debt repayment. Betts now has to deliver on his third party, non equity, fund raising and quickly. Meanwhile, Coris can still pull the plug at any time.

My guess is that they are looking at selling royalty streams for a significant upfront funding. Could probably do up to a 20% rate on KOU if the royalty companies believe the mine forecasts.

Another poor quarter but, hey, next quarter will be better. Another emergency loan from the Coris Group but, hey, we’re going to refinance everything in the next quarter. Nothing actually changes. The future for shareholders is still (even more) in the hands of Coris. If Coris is nice then all will be well. If not, Coris could take the whole company. Still too much of a gamble.” For now.

It really is past time that management provides an update. Everyone should know the issue, commissioning progress vs running out of money (again), but the complete silence but eh company on progress(?) is creating a false market in the shares as well demonstrated by the disagreements on this chat board.

TO73 your concerns are ridiculous. Thor has a good operating track record and there is absolutely no reason to believe they are not selling gold normally. If you get off on investing in gold companies that are serial disasters, I recommend you sell your Thor shares (if you have any) and buy Hummingbird.

In the real world, an open pit mine will always show grade variances according to the exposed mineable ore. The 95k prediction must mean that the company is expecting higher grade ore to be available in the 2H. There does seem to be an issue with mining dilution, having to mine more tonnes for the same ounces, but given the current gold prices this again may be the right solution (volume over grade). TO73, I see no reason not to keep the faith at this stage.

Woodsmith is pretty irrelevant to the valuation. Plenty of value to realise without it. At least 4000/ps