Member Info for Ben18

I agree that it has taken BHP's approach to wake Anglo's Board and management from their inbred complacency. The result is the self break up of the rambling empire, leaving a core that will be an easier and compelling takeover target for BHP, Rio or Glencore. There is a lot of value that will be released from this, including on the spun off Southern African assets removed from Anglo's dead hand. Target value > 4000.

There is a lot of value here. Even if Anglo remains independent , it can’t go back to the inbred arrogance and complacency that has characterised successive Boards and managements. A break-up will yield at least £35 per share. And that’s the minimum third party offer that can be accepted.

I have a good look at this one in the light of the recent falls (and rebound). Too may unknowns and too little meaningful communication from management. So for now, in the words of the Den, I'm out. Good luck.

There seem to be various estimates of the 2Q impacts. On another site, a writer has calculated $10m loss for the quarter. The problem is that we are not producing the gold. if you can deliver the gold, it is an opportunity cost loss but if you can't deliver the gold, the loss will have to be cash settled, money HUM does not have. I would be surprised if the counterparty doesn't have the ability to accelerate the cash drain by margin calls. All this means that Coris is once again going to have to cover the deficit. I really can't understand why Coris persists with the management and the current Board. There is a good company here being squandered by incompetent leadership.

Oh and a cautionary tale. The younger members may not remember the last gold spike in the early 2000's where Ashanti went bust and Anglogold and Barrick got close due to their hedging losses.

What worries me most about that 60koz hedge is whether it is subject to a margin call. The other side of the trade has an exposure of c$15m, cash that HUM doesn't have currently, and, because of the Corica situation, doesn't have the comfort of gold delivery as the near term exit.

Maybe Wagner was the mystery recipient of the missing $5m?

This share can't progress until there is full disclosure of the reasons why the previous - successful - CEO was suddenly sacked. The RNS on this was tightly worded and completely unintelligible. Who did the CEO pay and why? Given how much the CEO was paid this doesn't look like "hands in the Company's till". So who was the recipient and why did the Board find the transaction so unacceptable?

Me too. Thought the story had promise mining high grade gold in Scotland but seems we just got mined for our money. Can’t win them all. Not enough value left now to be worth the effort of trying to sell the holding.

I made this point recently. The Board and management have no Ghanaian representation and no Ghanaian shareholders of note. This is a big mistake when applying for a Mining Licence for what will be, we hope, a highly lucrative natural resources operation. Domestically this could look like colonial exploitation. I would not be surprised if the MIIF stake is being lined up by the Ghanaian Government as a condition though how this is done is an open question. In this regard, compare Atlantic to Thor Explorations, another rapidly emerging AIM Lithium play, for host country content.

Looking at the Board, you are right. They have no independent non-execs, let alone a majority, on a Board over-represented by management and large shareholders. This Board needs a wholesale restructuring and whilst they are at it they can include some Ghanaian members.

Pretty happy with the Presentation yesterday. Management made convincing arguments particularly on funding. The key now is the Mining Licence which kicks off the rest of the development timetable. In Lithium, there is race to production and being online in 2026 will still be ahead of the pack and yield the supra returns.

Topped up today despite not really understanding the DFS release. The central questions are : when does the Company expect to reach a cash positive position (mid 2025 or 2Q 2026); what is the peak funding requirement ($185m? less the 2025 cf? plus working cap? and staying alive cash?) and how much new money does the Company have to raise to fund the peak requirement (and how much are the existing shareholders going to be diluted). Any insights welcome.

Sorry guys, understand the grieving process but time to move on. Plenty of alternative gold companies listed in London.

It is sensible to try and analyse what you are investing in. POG is now a bet on a quick sale, probably of the assets (not an open offer) at a price >$600m. There is no fallback option. Read the Company releases. They have said this.

More guesswork. POG (at PLC level) is not currently a going concern on the normal 12 month cash flow test as it is not servicing the current debts so no Board or auditor could sign off the accounts on that basis. So what is the point in delay? There must be some belief that this could change imminently. The only thing I can see would be an agreement to sell an asset (or all the assets) to cover the next 12 months debts (which now total >$600m). Fail in this and BDO comes in as Administrator.

Given the refusal of the Company to comment, all we can do is speculate. But the auditor explanation does not wash. The Company is allowed to publish its results with the audit certificate pending. More likely, the Board is unable to determine whether the figures should be compiled on a going concern or liquidation basis.

The lack of disclosure from the Company is very frustrating. Two questions that the Company should publicly address urgently; i) is granting of the export licence a material event for POG (as people have been led to believe) and, if so, why is it not being properly disclosed in a RNS; ii) why has publication of the 2021 Report and Accounts been delayed again? According to the FCA Listing Rules, these should have been delivered by end April and POG can't just sail past such deadlines without comment.

And listed businesses are usually put into Administration over a weekend with trading suspension on the Monday opening.

Isn’t the key question what BDO is being lined up to do? BDO does debt restructuring work similar to Alix. But BDO also does Insolvency and Administration.

Mid May is a bit optimistic. It took the Ukrainians 6 weeks to rout the Russian army in the north. Now the Ukrainians can concentrate on the East, we should allow them another 6 weeks to rout the Russians in the south. To all those apologists for Putin and his war criminals, invest in POG if you wish but don't lose your soul doing it.