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>>is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism………
Shows there was an ulterior motive behind exaggerating targets and timescales.wouldn’t you for a £1m bonus? Which begs the question again wether those targets that were given were actually then a genuine expectation? With what there is now being more in line with more realistic geological expectations of quality and quantity of BR’s resources and its optimisation which both aspects were all alluded to in the preliminary study prior to any of the phase 1 and 2 drilling and other technical work being input.
So in that respect, maybe it shouldn’t be looked on as though the project has fallen as far short of those targets, but more in line with what could have and has been achieved from the study recommendations so it should be leaving a far lesser degree of disappointment, if any than the amount currently being perceived by shareholders.
Some positive news at least is that all the warrants that were issued along with the last placing in ‘21 will expire 2yrs after the date they were approved at the ‘21 AGM which will be on Tuesday 24th. About 55 million ‘altogether’ with 49m+ @ 8p
What with the incentivised 24,800,000 directors and staff warrants at 10p that CB would still get of those 10m, is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism using targets and timeframes to continually try to rally the share price up toward the strike prices.
Early on got close, but no cigar! Which is somewhat ironic.
MTMU
curious to know on what basis you believe a buyback of a mere half million would add 2p to the sp. Also whether you can recall a single company ever whose sp benefitted so much from such a modest stimulus.
Unless of course you're teasing us.
If not such a dividend, even a half a million gbp invested in a share buyback scheme in 2024 would add at least 2p to the share price imho..
Especially in the context of it being so extremely affordable versus Manica ongoing revenue .. and still allow him rainbow chase his already chosen rainbows too.
Manica gives so many opportunities to enhance shareholder value that go way outside the box that Mr Bird has been conditioned to think within off the back of years of no such ongoing strong revenue in any of his AIM companies. He just needs to open his mind up.....
(but he won't because his ego is obsessed with the thrill of the rainbow chasing drill for one more chart topper.. 5p a share is boring to CB .. 15p a share may barely excite him... 50p a share would get the old dog boned)
Living on planet hopeful which is why I’m still in this share - but I take your point, pretty unlikely.
If we are generating even 7m net over next 2 years after overheads , I don’t mind investing 2-3m in a smart exploration program in nw Zambia .
Still leaves 3 or 4 m that should be distributed.
My main issue with xtr at the moment is the cryptic mumbojumbo that are our financial statements.
By accident or design ?
Either way I really really don’t like it - the financial reporting is not fit for purpose
A dividend of ANY amount from Bird and his cohorts, let alone £1M? What planet do you live on Cyber? When has Bird ever found it necessary to feed his `loyal ` investors with a dividend?.
Thanks for some interesting posts in reply to Ricks podcast. As this shows, it isn't only the explorers who are feeling the heat:
https://www.mining.com/web/freeport-mcmoran-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-on-production-boost/
But as pointed out by BH, gold is back at $2000 an ounce and looking strong.
Also to repeat one of the other points from the RR interview in response to bens good post there.
From 8.57 “When price is not indicative of value and the board have gone quiet, what do you do.” …..I BUY
And to add a variant on Bens point that,
>> Right now, most AIM companies do not offer dividends so there is simply no guarantee of a ROI.
The significant variant to this is,
Right now, most AIM natural resource companies do not have sustainable income to underpin their market cap.
What will see xtract excel, once global demand increases, will not necessarily be only from its own level of promotion that it can put out, but the stability and encouragement that its income will offer through its own continued exploration potential compared to its many peers in the sector that have had to park up their projects through that lack in funding, or even worse.
The longer the recession grips, the stronger xtracts position should be when it turns.
As much as everyone was v disappointed that BR fell well short of what was promoted , this current £9.5m market cap is kind of ridiculous.
Some confirmation that we are indeed at 85kg plus per month gold and a clear demonstration of the net element that’s flowing through to xtr would demonstrate what a great entry point there is now and all the way up to 2.5p regardless of BR.
A million quid dividend wouldn’t go amiss either.
Final thoughts before clocking off for the weekend.
Did Colin expect his appearance with the Roasties to boost the SP? What is his strategy for returning shareholder value here?
Ultimately the only thing that will drive this share is news and concrete news that will bring shareholder value.
The current market is full of companies that have a huge sp/value disconnect. Money may be in short supply and investors keen to invest in companies with a clearly positive future. This brings us back to Rick Rule's idea of lifestyle companies.
If you would like an insight into what can happen when one of these overlooked, abandoned companies does release game changing news, have a gander at Tempest Therapeutics. Last week it rose 4000% in one day. That is what can happen should the right news be released. News that provides a guarantee that shareholders will be rewarded for buying in. Right now, most AIM companies do not offer dividends so there is simply no guarantee of a ROI.
I sincerely hope that Colin is getting his ducks in a line. Gold price is now just shy of 2000 USD. He must surely have received an interim report of BR's feasibility.
I have been frustrated by how tedious the wait for any material news has been here. Once Q2 gold is reported and BR report is released, we will be that much closer to finding out if 2024 will be our year. If only to stop us hearing Colin bang on about Kalumbila. Have a good weekend everyone.
Great word.. and not just directed towards my last post here, perhaps .. or at least not all my posts here - and elsewhere - even, Naughtiegordie .. but no worries any which ways :-)
NUGATORY ? had to google it ;)
Fine entertainment, thanks all .. but kinda confusing granted.. still, I think I'm now confident in saying that VulcanBoB is absolutely not the one and only Mr Colin Bird !.. but remain much less confident in saying that Old School Values is not the one and only Mr Colin Bord :-)
Ps: Through all this, I'm remain very confident that Howezap is Howezap
Analytical
I think VB also said that I was you on here !
I filtered him a few months ago as his motivation was clear.
If anyone looks at his posting history they can see that he is a snide and nasty piece of work wanting to spread fear and worry to as many people as possible.
I actually feel a little pity for him now. What a way to spend a life.
Jezzoo --- There can be only one !
No! I am Colin bird
>>The current debt problem and the geopolitical risk tell us that gold is a safe bet in a volatile world.
Sure sums up xtracts particular economic outlook that’s been discussed.
A point worth a shout is in relation to the whole negativity behind having multiple CB companies in the stable. On subject of financing, Andmillsy pointed out from Galileo financials that a loan of 45k was paid to xtr. If this was a bridging loan then there is a good point to be made in favour of being in the position to loan/borrow funds between his various companies in time of need to keep working capital working. It benefits both companies and as a group they can work together. Absolutely nothing unusual in that respect.
Https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Rising-Rates-Geopolitical-Tensions-And-Debt-Maturities-Create-Risky-Mix.html
Makes interesting reading. At least gold should do well.
Interesting discussions here.. Howzap is a proper long-term holder here and his bigger picture mid /long-term postings here are helpful and good, thanks
(That Rick Rule interview semi interested me .. we all take different things from it, of course.. my biggest takeaway is that the occasional big wins cover over the plentiful smaller hits from the inevitable dog bets that even good players make in this sector.. because, for one reason or other, there are soooo many small cap exploration names that turn out to be car crashes for shareholders, alas)
Ben 'owell's post below is a -n other - good one.... and the last para is nail on 'ead stuff (imho)
''The frustration with CB is there is no inkling of shareholder value at the moment. No dividend from Manica, no publicly available strategy RE Bushranger and certainly no short to mid term option of selling Zambian assets.''
That's a fair and reasonable shout..... and, ironically, I see big picture as Mr Bird's strength more than small picture ..ouch
( he's very consistent in leaving much room for improvement in smaller picture stuff such as timely RNS feedback eg Assays reporting from down the Bush(Ranger)... and where the buck is q2 manica figures RNS as another eg !!)
I agree XTR look the best placed. Trouble is that is down 82% whereas AFP is down 34% and GLR a lowly 10% in my account. Equally AIM as a whole no better. If Rick is right and most of these companies will go to the wall then it makes sense for the majors to just let the explorers bankrupt themselves and pick up the pieces in a couple of years time. AA can just drag things out and are under no pressure to do us any favours.
Agree on the ‘reduced dilution’ Ben, and let’s not get lulled into a false sense by thinking there will ‘not’ be any further raises. Maybe, maybe not, but if there is, we can be relatively confident it will be used for sole purpose of advancing projects and not to pay debtors and keep the lights on. There are two types of raise, one is the latter, the other is where there is a genuine growth opportunity. So should not be frowned upon if need be.
The balance is wether you either raise money from the market or give away some of your projects NPV to bring in a partner, which can be kinder on the treasury short term but can see a far worse financial hit than a raise in the long term.
CB is keener on an equal partnership JV, it’s going in with a major with a far more controlling interest that he would less likely want with being at the mercy of their timescales and potential to be diluted out which can often happen.
It’s the positioning of the company when we come out the other side of the resource sector 5hit storm that should be more seriously considered than any shorter term outlook now.
Really interesting debate inspired by RR's interview. I would agree there are many lifestyle companies out there. I would probably put TYM in there along with Bezant who seem permanently on tenterhooks about their Philippines asset. GLR shows slightly more promise and AFP have possibly the best hand (of Colin's others) with the deals they have with majors, Sandfire etc.
Xtract definitely the best placed though with the money coming in. Reduces dilution and improves our negotiating hand when it comes to JVs. I do appreciate CB's dislike of JVs as you simply lose control of progress. Bezant were forced to go down that route in Cyprus and that fell through terribly. Oriole (ORR) had to do that in Senegal and although they have good assets, they're waiting around for updates like someone waiting on a rural bus service.
On the flip side, if you don't go down the JV route, you have to actually get things done yourself and make your assets appealing (for purchase). CB has been incredibly slow with BR (18 months since drilling stopped there now?) and quite frankly it will be years before anyone wants to take anything in Zambia off our hands.
The frustration with CB is there is no inkling of shareholder value at the moment. No dividend from Manica, no publicly available strategy RE Bushranger and certainly no short to mid term option of selling Zambian assets.
The 1200 to 200 did catch my attention. Quite brutal. Given I own a few of Collins companies/exploration companies it is a bit concerning. AFP now taking a battering. I agree XTR should be fine. I have always been a fan of Manica and the NW Zambia licenses look interesting. BR I bottom drawered a long time ago. But thanks for posting the podcast link. He made a few interesting observations.
Hi flipper, overall I think his interview had some positive reassurances, I don’t think there’s any denying the long term outlook, with his point on the recessionary culling of many parasitic lifestyles companies like you say, interesting. I’ve prattled on before about it being an ideal time ahead to go after projects that fall within xtracts criteria, that their owners have or will face an almost impossible task of progressing assets on their own without significant dilution with xtract in prime position to negotiate with a really strong hand where feasible. That hand could be even stronger.
Many consider Colin bird companies to be lifestyle, but I would consider xtract is somewhat different now with the ability to easily cover its operational costs with surplus to progress its assets in whatever limiting capacities, but opinions will continue to vary until we can see results and forward spending can be aligned. Besides, spending £10m on an exploration phase is pretty fudging serious!
Think it will get worse in China as major property developers have massive debts and I read somewhere recently it could cause financial contagion for key resource buyers in Asia. Inventories risen sharply up 50% too.
Agree joeman 👍
At the front of this interview RR suggested a further capital starvation of the junior sector would reduce the +1200 companies down to a healthier 200 companies.
If he is right (and not withstanding the massive destruction in some peoples portfolios if it happened) XTR would be one of the 200.
We have significant income for the next few years and if we (with the mining contractor) invest some of that in a plant expansion then our income will extend 6 ... 7 or more years. So on the basis of that part of Rick's advice we should be happy to be here.
Whether the income gets turned into actual value added for us depends on Bushranger and the Zambian targets and how the money we put in the ground equates to success.