The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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If it gives me the chance to vote him out in the GE I'm happy.....
10,000 Tory party members so far have signed a petition to have Boris enter the election for his job on
conservativepost.co.uk
Agree with a lot of that Prickly, we might get a ceasefire relatively soon. The war must be crushing the Russian economy, Afghanistan (plus Chernobyl and generally being broke) did for the USSR in the 80s. At some point soon Putin will start to realise that a pyrrhic victory is better than none as the number of Russian dead and their economic crisis grow.
Britain looks like its getting trussed up but that shouldn't affect the copper price too much!
My bigger concern is actually the Chinese property bubble currently bursting, which has in fact started in earnest already.
A steady gold price and signs that Copper has inched off its bottom augur well at XTR. Once we get back to $4.00 lb which CB and Iceberg agree should be Sept Oct then normal service should be resumed . The Sp will reflect a small gold producer and large copper explorer . The cu price predictions are all over the place and the likes of Goldman Sachs are forever trying to explain why their estimates were so wrong . My guess for copper price is somewhere between $4.50 and $5.00 for a year from now. I am an optimist and think the war will end in the winter with both sides claiming victory and Russia clinging on to large chunks of mainly destroyed Ukraine . China will finally open up its economy post Covid (also having declared a victory) and Rishi will be PM. I hope some of these are correct. But I voted Remain and backed Hunt in the tory leadership ballot so my track record is poor.
We like your pointless speculation :)
Re copper and gold price. I tend to agree with Colin. Sept maybe oct will see some recovery of commodity prices. I do think that China will be buying again. Importantly I think that speculators will move in.
The market will be in wish away a recession mood.
Then it will come back to bite as we move into January. It will be an interesting short lived aim exploration bonanza. I hope folks make hay while it goes well and close down positions in risky stocks.
Given this, from now till September we might see some big low volume movements in some shares. There is just a sign of some bounce returning.
At least imo. - but feel free to ignore as it’s all just pointless speculation :)
When I say hopefully eureka is ramped up, there is a couple of points to note there. We are into the third quarter now so hopefully ‘operations’ as stated could well be under way again.
Secondly it’s not actually that clear in the audited report if commencement will still be into further drilling and testing with more trial mining, running the ore for processing or both? So may not quite be there just yet from reading into the report. Whereas Colin in interview has stated once the pit dries out from being hampered by the rains it ‘will’ start producing.
But, it is clear enough they are doing all the right things to get into the geology to fully understand the ore body to extend open pit to the north west, 300m of strike has been added and is open down plunge too, as the historic pit was not dug deep enough to get to the core of the deposit. Loads of potential with a detailed mine planned and with the objective to get ore to a local processing plant where there is an agreement in place to start getting some income.
So it certainly does look promising that Eureka will make a fair contribution and more importantly, soon!
Expected to shift 250,000TPA over 3years, are there any estimates of average grades, income expected etc?
Frustrating being kept in the dark but there is just enough information in the domain to piece it together.
Hi backtothesoil
Don’t forget empress get a royalty (% of revenue) while XTR get a % of profit (definition in recent release) so unless I’ve misunderstood your calculation I don’t think you can make that comparison as it’s not apples with apples.
Cheer
James
Empress av cash flow $1.5m.
Xtr cash flow then $10.2M
Hoping that clears up the confusion from their interview stating full production by last quarter. Ella is likely correct then as corresponds with last quarter being sept as end of their financial year.
It’s up and running that’s what counts, and with Eureka hopefully ramped up to full chat now after it’s long test production run, it can only be better, than ‘still good’ previous months revenue.
I don’t buy Colin’s argument that China is keeping its citizens indoors under the guise of Covid mostly to keep a lid on inflation, but he’s clearly right that fear and caution stalk the market. I think the turn in commodity prices is far off - Goldman Sachs (I think it is) suggests copper will still be under $4/lb in 12-18m. But we can’t buck macro trends - as Colin says, we just need to keep our heads down and prove up Bushranger and see where we are.
The debate about 2Mt is of less importance for me, it’s all about what value the resource has. Look at Caravel’s recent pre-FS - 1.45Mt at 0.24% with a cut-off of 0.10%, with an NPV of A$1.0bn. Very similar to BR in my view. I don’t see why the mining and processing costs etc per tonne will differ significantly for Bushranger, albeit we almost certainly have more stripping as we’ll have a much deeper mine. Therefore a decent NPV is surely there. Let’s arrive at a figure and a break-even price per pound and then see where we are.
They just tweeted and from memory it is an updated presentation with some new photos of Manica
https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1551595686692409344?s=20&t=CZrveQVaX73lOhS8dkyS3g
Link to presentation
https://empressroyalty.com/site/assets/files/6274/empress_royalty_-_presentation_-_july_2022.pdf
From page 13 "Pre-Production - Forecasting Revenue Q3 2022 "
Page 21 "Manica Commence full production Q3 2022"
“So is it now confidence or disappointment in colins voice? There's definitely a change in his demeanour”
Agreed.
Lately, CB has been much more circumspect in his comments and his tone. Over the years I have been here, CB tends to “come out fighting” when things have not gone well and he has taken the “Boris Johnson” approach of ignoring set backs and looks to the great potential in the future .
So if there had been a set back (tonnage not up to his implications) I would think CB would be ramping things up and talking about all the great other prospects (FB) and how good the future is going to be.
He’s, noticeably, not doing that - even when there is good reason to do so ie FB future income
So on balance, that implies to me he ’s deliberately underplaying the situation as he know what we have and deems that to be a success.
I base this analysis and conclusion on his previous MO, but this attempt at “amateur psychologist” may be incorrect. :)
Gixxer
No reply from CE but the last time I corresponded with him by email was 2 years ago so maybe is changed email or not checked that account? Many years ago he did have a few months off from posting due to work commitments so maybe thats the same situation now?
I doubt he would have sold tbh - unless personal circumstances dictated.
Following on from that, Colin said in one of the latest interviews for shareholders to just be a little more patient and we don't want to give a way a cadia.
They must have what we need to sell to AA or why would you make these comments?
I watched the last podcast with the whole team and zak again, the one after ascot discovery.
Colin is extremely confident we will hit the necessary tonnage. Some shareholders on here and myself included are concerned with the slow down in communications and also his change of tone in the interviews. There are only two situations in my opinion as two why it's changed so dramatically, 1. Colin and the team have succeeded in doing what they have said and are waiting for the market conditions to be better to maximise the sale price.
2. They have failed to reach what they/Colin have been stating and are now trying to find the necessary tonnage from footrot and ascot to make the sale to AA.
So is it now confidence or disappointment in colins voice? There's definitely a change in his demeanour.
Rose tinted view against a more negative view on size and tonnage.
The way to look at it is if Colin has simply over egged his estimates of RC and potentially needing to drill more resource from Ascot to make up the deficit it hasn’t come at any further cost to shareholders through dilution! As long as there is a legit 2mt minimum resource or a decision to mine to trigger the buyback mechanism it will be available either way to go to market and be sold to whoever for multiples of current mc. All indications that have been given through RNS have indicated greater potential than expected, so for me I am in camp tier 1.
I think to conclude, it’s not unreasonable to be asking for how much this will be sold for! Not, wether or not it will in fact be sold at all. That for me is fairly decisive from ALL the supporting evidence to date.
The biggest wait times are no doubt from assay turnaround,
They had Veritas secured exclusively for assay analysis of just BR cores. Can’t recall for how long, but I don’t see it that samples are ‘actually’ being turned around in the 15-20+ weeks we were seeing earlier on in the year. They no doubt, and essentially confirmed in a podcast that results were needed to be held to understand “the interdependency” of certain groups of holes before the release of the assays to the market. Also consider the apparent strategy at play to covertly build the resource is having a big influence on turnaround.
Been back down to one rig ( as far as we know??) for a while now, so lab would be under less pressure, but would not expect to still have exclusivity though. The discovery hole of Ascot was reported in under 6weeks!
Certainly don’t think it will be assays that will drag this out. There is clear potential for normal or average turnarounds. If the lab did suffer huge backlog, they have had enough time to get on top of it anyway.
What Colin is suggesting, is that even chinas policies to keep their inflation down will not stop the recovery of new world commodities. Does he have a realistic point?
If we do see the tide turn then be ready, as all the resource models could well be done and dusted by then. Once we have our maiden resource there should be nothing to stop the market being informed ahead of approaching AA which we ‘do’ know now will be dependant on some kind of recovery in copper particularly, as gold is already forecast to be stronger.
BTW A4444 - Did you hear back from CE?
"For the six months ending June 30, Anglo’s copper output fell by 17% to 273,000 tonnes from 330,000 tonnes the same period a year before, as the Los Bronces and El Soldado mines hit lower grades and Chile’s ongoing drought impacted operations".
AA seems to be having a hard time at the moment with copper production despite what were high copper prices. Maybe it a test of who has the best poker skills between CB and AA.
"It could be that CB's mouth has written a cheque that the results can't cash and he needs more time to find more tonnage to justify his rampy comments over the last 6 to 9 months."
Couldn't have said it better myself Andrew....Always excuses from Bird. - Let's hope he did more due-diligence on Bushranger than he did for Kallengwa.
That optimistic "Rose tinted" view could well be correct, but, for balance, there is an alternative view - which I hope is wrong.
It could be that CB's mouth has written a cheque that the results can't cash and he needs more time to find more tonnage to justify his rampy comments over the last 6 to 9 months.
In the past, there's no doubt that Covid caused delays and problems, but it seemed that every delay was put down to Covid. Maybe CB now has the same cover re the commodity crash and he can use the one liner "waiting for the market to turn" to justify any delays in the sale process ?
On balance I believe the reason for the delay is a positive thing so I'm very much in the optimistic camp wearing my rose tinted glasses, but I wouldn't discount the negative view as "nonsense" or as highly unlikely.
Time to secure assets elsewhere?
https://www.mining.com/chile-rejects-second-anglo-american-project-in-two-months/
Why September / October? I don’t buy the China inflation idea.
Not so much they bounce in commodity prices (long time price discussions already done on BB), but more to do with awaiting assay results and ensuring we’re not giving a deep gold (copper) porphyry away.
Current holes being drilled deep into Ascot should get their assay results back by then. Given this is gold at grams per tonne, they’ll need to wait for confirmation. We’ll also get Footrot back by then as well.
Bushranger is on its side and spills over into Ascot, but the grades decrease the closer it gets to Ascot. Ascot could be vertical and overlapping with Bushranger, causing the confusion.
With Faitbride now up and running, CB not worried about share price and waiting to issue Racecourse model, I’m in the 2mt+ club (across whole of Racecourse). CB and team have more or less finished the wrapping of the present and put the bow on it, they’re now searching for the gift receipt to make sure they don’t give too much away.
I’m expecting a quiet July / August and then a building of the story and lots of news from then onwards. With enough will and drive from both sides, this could still go through by Christmas…. not saying what year ;)
CB >>>The next step is to find whatever wherever ore we can find to feed the plant and then start engineering the next stage of the plant for the sulphides and transition<<
I’m definitely not going mad !
That sounds more like the leech plant is being built! but at the very least additional engineering to increase overall capacity.