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Started: katstrangler, 31 Oct 2022 08:25
Last post: Safaniya, 26 Jan 2023 12:17
SAG definitely doesn’t like losing, they have played a clever game and taken out TPG for a fraction of their value. Sneaky stuff .
I saw today’s RNS suspending the shares pending an announcement. I am assuming the Science Group will acquire the shares at the low price of slightly above 2p. Many of us recognised the sp was only going one way after the heated discussions around 6p and in my case wrote that I was selling out in the market at 5.5p rather than wait any longer.
I incurred losses having held from the Corac days but even I didn’t see that the Science Group would “massage” the news output so incredibly well that even the long term Institutional shareholders would accept the current low sp.
I’m sorry for my fellow LTHs who have incurred an even worse financial outcome than me. What I take from this though is that the Science Group are an organisation to watch for the future - clever and a share to watch.
TheTrotsky, we were never offered 6.5p a share
It was an indicative offer.
I'm just pointing out that this is how SAG operate. They are tough hombres and once they make an offer they don't budge on price and are quite happy to buy more in the market until they can force a vote. They pulled a similar move on Frontier Smart Technologies (a company I had shares in) years ago and we were powerless to stop them because FST didn't have the cash. Subsequently SAG more than doubled their money at our expense. I don't know the particulars of TPG but once SAG have their claws into you they are very tough to shake. They are very hard negotiators who absolutely refuse to overpay and are quite happy to walk away and bide their time. I'm not a fan of SAG but I do grudgingly respect them; they probably don't get the recognition they deserve. I wish you all luck but do not expect SAG to raise their offer price. At the moment they've got TPG over a barrel and, unless something materially changes in the next 6-9 months, it would appear that a fund raise will be the only recourse left to TPG.
There's clearly some potential value in TPG (SAG would not be wasting their time otherwise) but SAG will not do existing PIs any favours if it comes to an equity fund riase. It's brutal but frank. If you think that TPG can turn around its current travails in the next 6-9 months without financial support from HSBC and SAG beyond September 2023 then rebut the offer but if not then it's only likely to get worse from here on out. SAG will keep TPG alive but although they won't necessarily hinder TPG's existing activities they won't necessarily help them either. The termination of parent company guarantees (such guarantees are usually always best avoided), albeit proper and correct, being a case in point - termination of the guarantees will reduce TPG's prospects of renewing the contracts but SAG would rather risk losing the contracts than risk their investment.
Also fair to point out the BoD... You mean the one with 2 SAG directors sat on it, one of which is the CEO for both companies. Best deal obviously for them yes, are you on a windup? I wouldn't take our CEO's advice even if it was that or a choice between his advice or swimming with Sharks. SAG have done exactly what they did in their previous agressive takeover, posters claimed they wouldn't they have and that's now for the record. I just hope shareholders don't capitulate here, SAG will have to pay or actually stick to that fantasy RNS nonsense about this being a strategic investment. The BoD clearly thinks everyone is stupid here or desperate to sell. If you are desperate to sell just do so now and let the rest of us try at least to resist these vultures. They won't unwind here out of spite or anything else even if they sell now they've lost 6 million and have actually done what the previous board could not and started clearing out the deadwood. TPG is actually in a better position compared to last year the SP is not reflective of the current NAV and I would be very surprised if no analysts where currently looking at what that is likely to be come year end. Notice conveniently on a business update could have given an update on the last quarter and that was left off. Erm yeah 2.25p is a fair offer but we don't want you to know how the business is actually currently performing. Grubby and everything wrong with the stock market, I will make a complaint to the FCA as this is really rotten if allowed. A minority shareholder holding the rest of us to ransom is outrageous and a bad precedent for AIM.
Started: NickRubens, 9 Jan 2023 10:11
Last post: NickRubens, 9 Jan 2023 10:11
Looks like it's a done deal then and if you still own the stock as I do, expect 2.2p payment per share on 9th Feb.
Started: Mandello, 22 Nov 2022 08:13
Last post: Mandello, 22 Nov 2022 08:13
Or is it best to sell and move on with ones life ...
Started: katstrangler, 31 Oct 2022 12:50
Last post: katstrangler, 31 Oct 2022 12:50
nm
Started: katstrangler, 31 Oct 2022 08:20
Last post: katstrangler, 31 Oct 2022 08:20
truly a shiiiitty deal.
Started: ChrisJones1974, 10 Oct 2022 17:53
Last post: Scrodingerscat, 31 Oct 2022 08:05
Fatmooch where are you? Get the jar out... I told you so. SAG have acted exactly as expected, which for the record is disgusting, the narrative that only they were able to renegotiate contacts is for the birds and now that issue is pretty much resolved they want to benefit minus the rest of us, a liquidity injection does not make the group insolvent. Value destruction 101 1. Create a boogeyman 2. Go radio silent 3. Make grubby deals with II shareholders in the background. SAG have destroyed the share price here all for gain, it's clear they wanted to aquire the group at the cheapest they could, £17M for a company that will likely have revenues of £50M or just under this year and a gross profit... Get tae **** Martin. Don't vote for this grubby deal SAG need to pay or stay, they've invested too much to walk away they will lose a lot if they sold their own holding at 2.25p so why should we.
Perhaps ChrisJones is someone looking to drive the stock down last week knowing an offer would be made today. I'm glad I topped up on TPG last week believing that the services division still offere dvalue and now stand to almost break even on today's 2.25p.
I've been with this since Corac over 12 years ago. It's been emotional. I'm glad to get 2.25p and to get out.
I already did fortunately over 1p, shame it was in profit at 1.5, always keeping a lookout though for a reopportunity, mindful of someone saying there might be a trading update due early Nov tho, share falling in advance looks like a red flag
To be fair, I did warn you to sell when the price was £1.35. Now, just a short while later it’s just £0.60. It’s going to get worse, believe.
feels like a background seller here, Science Group ?
Started: katstrangler, 31 Oct 2022 08:05
Last post: katstrangler, 31 Oct 2022 08:05
probably the worst performing share i own (that didn't just fail completely). anyone would think 2.25 was a cause for celebration!
Last post: Dinoken, 21 Sep 2022 11:58
Horrendous. Impacting results for this and next year. Will require resuscitation from Group to continue. Hard to believe. Surprised sp not sunk no pun intended.
Last post: perkylad, 9 Sep 2022 15:57
https://www.tpgroupglobal.com/news-events-and-insights/press-releases/tpgroup-powers-the-uks-first-full-scale-hydrogen-train
They certainly were not that long ago. Wouldn't be surprised they'd pulled out subsequently tho. Sorry for not being bothered to do more research, I was only fishing for reasons for the rise on that particular day.
A single mention of hydrogen in the annual report. Page 66. In relation to submarine air systems.
So I think it's safe to say it's not involved in any such development.
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/transport/huge-scotrail-train-orders-in-pipeline-to-create-all-green-fleet-3811424
Is TPG still involved with development of hyrogen trains?
Is something brewing? Big trades today.
Started: TomTomTrader, 31 Aug 2022 12:07
Last post: TomTomTrader, 31 Aug 2022 12:07
It was a year ago (on 3 September 2021) that SAG withdrew their offer for TPG. What's the betting we'll see a RNS on Mon 5 September with either: a revised offer; directorate change; major sell out (by M&G or Cannacord); or increased holding by SAG?
Started: Agricore, 16 Aug 2022 23:02
Last post: Dinoken, 18 Aug 2022 11:26
SAG sitting on massive loss in exchange for a minority holding with IMO little/no chance of turning things round and getting their investment back. IMO looks like a disaster for them ...
Reading Cenkos' analysis they say: We believe that satisfactory resolution of the company’s financing needs could act as a positive catalyst for the share price. However a bag of a fag packet calculation:
31/12/21 = £5.4m cash
HSBC Debt = -£7.0m
Shortfall = -£1.6m
Feb 22 Sapienza sold for £2m. £1m used to repay HSBC.
So we now have £0.4m net cash?? So what crisis? Do we not have a "positive catalyst" staring us in the face?! Joking aside, the September update should give some colour to how the ground lies. Much of the 2021 cash flow won't repeat in 2022 so there's a very good chance the coming 14 months are sufficient to keep cashflow neutral and be debt free.
Next problem is onerous contracts:
2021 Marine Margin 1%. 3 contracts are onerous. One of the 3 is 64% complete and ends 2027. Unclear about the other 2. Efforts underway to renegotiate. 2022 Trading update - behind target. At a guess there's a likely outcome of something between b/even and a -£2m loss for 2022.
2021 Service Margin 26%, 14% organic growth to £25.6m revenue; 2022 update - slightly behind but expected to recover. Assuming a further 14% growth and 2% margin growth could see a £2.9-£3.1m Op Profit.
Before you get too excited central costs will net that to near zero. That's a realistic case.
Of course there's a pessimistic case you can make..... and there's also an optimistic case where Key Defence Suppliers need to be safeguarded and a renegotiation is successful (i.e. if TPG went bust that creates disruption). Defence spending is going up and TPG is almost unique in this vertical, to not be enjoying a boon from the revival of Defence priorities.
To conclude, trying to piece together the 2022 picture out of the 2021 accounts has given me a right headache. I can see why the analysts copped out and said "there remains insufficient visibility to support forecasts for FY22."
What I can see however is a glimmer of hope. I can see how a lot of incompetence has been flushed through and a leaner, cleaner, sensible TPG is emerging. The Science Group people are not "nice". They won't throw a bone to TPG let a lone a loan. The £50k a quarter service charge for admin and £150k arrangement fee is taking their pound of flesh. However, you cannot fault the way they have cleaned the mess that came before and clearly it was what TPG needed. There's a good chance they cannot manufacture a crisis to "take the whole thing over". Clearly they a sitting on a large loss from their purchase of 27.8% of TPG at a 5p ish level (75% loss so £8-£9m maybe?)
The other ray of hope is simply that people who work there are happy. This was the reason I didn't sell up. I've monitored the glassdoor feedback since SAG's involvement and only found positives.
https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Reviews/TP-Group-Reviews-E1697672.htm
GLA
Started: Agricore, 15 Aug 2022 09:03
Last post: Dinoken, 15 Aug 2022 10:02
After all this time, still no news as to how it will adjust or exit the loss making Maritime projects - why ? In addition, net debt rising at alarming rate. IMO cannot go on like this, something has got to give.
The Services business did well; when you take out the exceptional costs (assuming we don't golden parachute another CEO out this year) then TPG would have made a profit... just.
Lots of kitchen sinking and feels cleaner as a result.
Started: scoredagainsteps, 12 Aug 2022 16:39
Last post: scoredagainsteps, 12 Aug 2022 16:39
Tgp is waking up . Let’s hope so . Gla
Started: dactions, 20 Jun 2022 19:12
Last post: Agricore, 25 Jul 2022 08:36
Apologies, reading SAG's update today the 12 month break is 3rd September not 29th Oct as I said before. If SAG bid before then they'd have to offer 6.5p (but could still bid). The analyst's view is that they won't move to takeover until the onerous contracts issue is resolved. Of particular note is that SAG trades on a EV/Sales of 2x and TPG is on an EV/Sales of 0.22 (suggesting of course a price of around 13p for TPG could be "fair value" longer term)
SAG has £48.9m of cash (i.e. a net cash position of £23.9m, and an undrawn £25m RCF). At current 1.5p SP TPG's EV is £15m. So SAG could "afford" 4.5p if it chose to - and still unlock 3X value based on the 2X sales multiple.
4.5p would still be painful, however it provides a perspective on where the negotiation lines sit (particularly I suppose for the II's). And how it's a possible 2 bagger from today's price for any new buyers?!
GLA
Been here forever and then some. Yep 6.5p in SAG shares will have me.
The way I look at this SAG have lost £7m-£8m in the value of its purchases of TPG at 5-6p. It would appear to me that they are tackling recent and old legacy issues (overseas acquisitions and onerous contracts). They want to buy this once fixed - not before.
Once these challenges are resolved and this is improving we will see a rerun of the takeover. (there must be a 12 month break which is 3 months away (29th Oct)). This will be because it's highly unlikely that shareholders will recognise the value but SAG will (they are the core of the TPG management team!!). If they offer 6.5p in SAG shares then I think most if not all will accept. If it's a lower offer then I just don't know but even the offer of say 5p will be more than triple from today's SP. Not great for long term holders like me but someone buying in today is laughing. I expect not many people are long term holders still?
TPG is in a great position for today's dangerous world and I have much more confidence in the new management team, but this share has required patience, a lot of patience.
GLA
Despite all the awful news, is the maritime focused group worth a punt at these levels ? LOL but seriously, 1.5p looks tempting ...
Who know but I would like this debacle put to bed asap and moving on with positive newsflow .
Started: skyebeacon, 24 May 2022 11:37
Last post: perkylad, 27 May 2022 11:00
Yes unpopular tho the thought is here, the shareholders who supported the 2 SAG directors to the TPG board would be v disaapointed to see TPG SP driven down to low ball offer territory. The recent negative update and little news since then hasn't done much to reaasure more sceptical investors tho...
This chat has gone quiet - no news. All waiting for a low ball offer? But 4 institutions still own over 40% of the equity. I'm not sure they'll allow a very low offer. Any thoughts?
Started: perkylad, 16 Mar 2022 11:26
Last post: NoQuestionMarks, 20 Mar 2022 18:33
"TPG has not released its results for the period ended 31 December 2021. A loss after tax of £1.1 million has been included within the Science Group Income Statement, which is an estimate based on TPG reported information and public statements, proportionate to the Group's 28% shareholding and the duration for which TPG was accounted as an associate."
...mentions TPG. Nothing substantial but may be of interest to shareholders here.
Started: Radius, 28 Feb 2022 18:15
Last post: Radius, 28 Feb 2022 18:15
I certainly hope our experts are working hard on any MOD projects which may help the poor people of Ukraine.
Started: Radius, 28 Feb 2022 18:04
Last post: Radius, 28 Feb 2022 18:04
Thought the European/Russian situation would help tpg's SP.
But I suppose we'll only hear about any improvement in trading after the SAG's Trojan horses have done their work & tpg is no longer an independent entity.
Started: Scrodingerscat, 11 Feb 2022 08:38
Last post: dactions, 11 Feb 2022 16:26
I came out earlier - and I'm grateful it was above 5p then - but even so I made horrible losses on this one and as you guys have alluded to, this bad financial position is a charade - amazing that SAG can get away with it but it looks they will play out the poor reporting to span the year from the last share purchases - so they can offer a lower price.
But I'm surprised they feel they will keep their consultants - I would have thought some, if not all of them, will be getting itchy feet unless they're contractually bound to TPG ?
Yes, update could have been a lot more balanced.
Sure tpg isn't in a great place due to legacy issues but what about the other parts of the business?
How's consulting going?
This update only serves SAG's agenda.
Radius I think what was worse was that people and SAG's cheerleaders (they know who they are) were adamant this would not happen and voted along with SAG. Shot themselves and us in the foot. If David Lindsay was still in control the update would read very different not saying it would have been good but it could have been balanced. No actual substance to this update. What was the revenue at the end of 2021, what is the current orderbook value? Lopsided reporting... impairments, exceptions, paper losses, provisions and intangible write downs are only part of the story and just pointing to the bogeyman under the bed. If you take the update at face value TPG didn't trade in 2021 and no inclination of 2022 when we are in February.
It's disgusting what Martyn Ratcliffe is doing here and only a fool could look at what's happening and see that the only shareholders he's concerned about are that of SAG. The usual suspects will appear to defend or point blame elsewhere. This isn't kitchen sinking it's a clear intent to destroy value.
It gives me no pleasure because like no doubt the rest of us I'm sitting on a significant loss but fatoomch here goes... I told you so. Leopards don't change their spots after all.
Just reread my 2nd Oct 21 post.
The only change I would make now is the 5-6p to 3-4p.
I’ve sold my last tranche this morning, the annoying thing is I nearly sold yesterday, and no, I’ll stay in. Anyway had good potential, hey ho time to move on.
Started: Radius, 8 Jan 2022 13:20
Last post: perkylad, 21 Jan 2022 17:16
I can understand selling now, since losses here could be recovered (plus some) more quickly with another better investment.
But what prospects for those investors not selling now?
I think Radius summed it up well and the 57% of shareholders who voted for the board changes thought similarly too.
'The General Meeting result was a clear rejection of the TP Group Board's strategy. The Science Group strategy to create a collaboration between the companies, built around Science Group's strategic investment and the appointment of its two nominated directors, was endorsed. TP Group shareholders gave a clear mandate for the Science Group strategy which is anticipated to benefit both organisations and their shareholders.'
SAG can profit by either trying to acquire the rest of TPG shares as cheaply as possible (and all the destructive shenangins that that may entail) or they could seek to turn TPG around, boost the share price and profit from their existing share.
If we take SAG at current face value they want to do the latter. (a big 'If' i realise). If the (57%-SAG%) called it right then they would expect this to be near the low point and it'll be worth hanging around.
I'm not quite as negative as i was (relatively :)
GL
Sorry to hear you're out TT.
Many of us PI's invested here have been burnt by very poor management & a complete lack of over site for years .
What could have been a successful & profitable company has been so poorly managed for so long that it beggers belief.
SAG may well step in to take it on, but probably at no great price
Let's hope the New management can pull something out of the bag & soon.
Wishing you well with your new Investments.
Cheers R
Well my wait is over. Just sold my last tranche after some 9 years because I can't really see any cause for optimism. I was pleased when David Lyndsey came on board but the writing went on the wall for me when he said he was going. I must admit the SAG situation has not helped.
I've redistributed into other shares I hold including HDD and SRT who have much more immediate possibilities. I hope I'm wrong and recovery will happen but it's so uncertain.
All the best and good luck
Truro Trader.
iq really the last
Yes sitting on my hands too atm. I'd like to to be able to say that my inaction forms part of a rational assessment of SAGs likely actions reagarding TPG rather than my reluctance to selling now at a loss, but it isn't!
I assume that SAG will try to acquire the remainder of TPG for the lowest overall cost to themselves but not being any kind of expert in (hostile) takeovers and not being that exposed here myself, i'm happy to sit back and watch.
I also hold SAG shares so that helps too...
How's everyone this New Year?
I'm still holding ATM waiting for the 6mth time limit to expire, just wondering what the rest of you are doing?
Any predictions for when and at what price a takeover will take place?
Hi lymie
Unfortunately this share has proved to be my worst investment, by a country mile.
Good luck with next investment.
R
Sorry Radius memory not so good. Should have said posters who opposed the takeover. Sold half my holding at just over 5 sold the rest today. Science can now buy the company for what it's worth, F/A.
lymie
An open offer to vote on was never made.
R
Those of you who voted against the takeover have had their comeuppance.the share price has virtually halved and clearly without Science the company would probably have gone under. Now the company is having to pay an arrangement fee of £150k to be bailed out and there is unlikely to be any profit before 2023.
Started: NickRubens, 16 Dec 2021 10:58
Last post: Timmbos, 16 Dec 2021 11:11
I suggest by supplying this facility and acting at arm's length they want a return on their investment. (29% stake)
What do we think is Science Groups longer term ambition here. Do they want to progress TPG as an individual company and get a return on their equity investment somehow or do they want to take the whole company eventually and if so what is the perceived plan to get it? Takeover offer eventually perhaps, though at what price?
The previous management didn't really do anything for shareholders as the SP reflects and now it seems doubt is creeping in on Science Group intervening with their recent equity stake.
I've always got soft spot for British manufacturing but that too often leads to losses in terms of equity value destruction unfortunately. I'm from the Thatcher Buy British Era. Cheers NR.
Started: fatoomch, 26 Nov 2021 08:52
Last post: dactions, 15 Dec 2021 09:57
How shareholder value has been destroyed by SCIENCE group - I hope they can keep their Consultants as surely that’s where the value of the business lies or have I misunderstood that ?
The sp has fallen as I thought and am glad I sold out whilst it was still above 5p but still incurred horrible losses over many years of holding in the group. Good luck to all remaining shareholders.
Mid December and nothing from Cenkos about TPG NOT meeting their previous revenue forecast, made on Sept 14th. Assumption would be, that with very few working days left on 2021, that TPG will meet the forecast made in September.
tpgroup has secured a one-year contract to develop a software-based emulator that will help to de-risk the integration of equipment for a multi-billion maritime defence programme.
https://twitter.com/TPGroupUK/status/1468869358277599235?t=YMHFMIxtYU8oSrCa4Qxe8Q&s=19
Well sort of reassuring but then they would say that wouldn't they.
Following the Science Group strategic investment in TP Group in August and the subsequent restructuring of that Board, the new strategy for TP Group was announced on 1 November 2021. As reported by TP Group, this strategy focuses on the UK-based Defence and Aerospace operations which contribute approximately 70% of TP Group revenue and a greater proportion of the profit contribution. The relationship between Science Group and TP Group has developed constructively in recent weeks and the Science Group Board remains positive in relation to the long term merits of the investment.