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Stokey- I've found TPG on 2021 list of exhibitors
I'd agree Stokey but it's the very thing that gets thrown out when you're on a 'cost-cutting mission'.
I have just checked the list of people exhibiting at DSEI 2021 and TP Group are not attending. If one of the important sectors you are operating in is Defence NOT to be at DSEI is inexplicable. This is one of the major if not the major exhibition in the defence field. It allows for direct approach to potential clients. I would not be surprised if everyone of TPG's competitors will be there.
Canonguy ref 23.35 post your maths is wrong SAG on its own has around 28% of the votes so only needs 22.1% of the votes for the resolutions to pass.
II's have 75.14%. Assuming SAG can count on 40% voting their way that leaves 35.14% for TPG. The remaining balance of 24.86% is in the hands of the PI's. The maths from here is pure speculation and it's quite normal for only a handful of PI's to ever vote but if they all do, 60% of PI's will have to vote with the board. I just can't see it going any other way other than for SAG. The only question remaining is what will SAG do once they have access to the Due Diligence. Why would they make an offer at 6.5p when they have an opportunity to wait 12 months and then make there move at a much lower price.
I know my fears are based on pure speculation but I've lost so much over the last few years, my faith in the honesty of the share markets and BOD's has been severely shaken for me to think otherwise.
SAG has 27.08% and Canaccord 11.70% = that takes them to 38.78% . They could scoop 1 or 2 % in the market before the meeting, so could end up at around 40% prior to the meeting
Not sure anyone has done some maths on the votes for October 1 - Requisitioned GM.
The document that TPG Investor relations forwarded me, states that TPG have received indicative support from 25.4% of their shareholders to vote against.
The doc also states that 0.75 % is from the BoD. 25.4% less 0.75% = 24.65% left. Looking at the list of the largest holders, we are deducing that Canaccord is probably likely to vote with SAG. I therefore suspect M&G is part of the 24.65% less 18.78% (M&G) gets us to 5.87% . Killik holds 4.72% and TM Cavendish fund 2.76% which adds up exactly to 5.87% (Unless my numbers are out of date, these seem to added to the last decimal point)
Osprey was acquired on 25/08/20
In the final 4 months of 2020 - Osprey revenue was £1.4M.
In the financial year ended 31 December 2019, Osprey reported adjusted EBITDA of £0.6 million from revenues of £4.6 million and as at 31 December 2019 had unaudited consolidated gross assets of £1.4 million.
2019 and 2020 performance fairly similar.
I'm not expecting too much from Osprey in 2021.
It may well be a good play for the future (jam?) - but no positive impact half or full year 2021. All imo - of course.
Well one thing that is certain is that Osprey will not REPORT a profit in 2021...if for no other reason than its reporting year was extended and is now August 2020 to 31st December 2021, so no report is due within the 2021 calendar year.
I think, though, if you look at the parts of the aviation market that Osprey are active in, you will see that these are not in the areas worst affected by COVID, so the effects of the pandemic might not be as bad as feared.
Cat - if a company has to draw down on a £7m bank loan to remain a going concern- is that a positive?
If 6 months down the line, despite posting details of increased revenue, that company reveals its spent £2.7M of the £7m drawn down - would you say that is a positive?
Would you say that £2.25M cash paid for Osprey Consulting, plus another £1.25M cash due pretty soon if they meet certain targets seems sensible for a cash poor company - in the middle of a pandemic?
Imo - Osprey Consulting, a company primarily aviation focused, will not contribute a profit in 2021 - due to the pandemic .
Stand alone - and TPG would still be around 4p - what will drive a recovery, and when
Lutra they are all coming out the woodwork now to extol the virtues of a sale to SAG. I'm ignoring all the rubbish half baked reasons they are throwing out now not one of the arguments add up.
For the record I've been accumulating since PC's departure and I've submitted my request to my broker today 484,000 votes rejecting all resolutions... I'm hopeful that the majority of pi's and ii's see that being short sighted here is only a sure fire way for money to be taken from our pockets and put into SAG's. SAG can have my shares but certainly not for 6.5p.
Jellyroll, unfortunately your suggestion of rolling over any TPG share sale into SAG shares, so as to benefit from SAG's potential value-extraction from the carcase of TPG, doesn't quite work. If SAG managed to extract an additional 50% value from the assets of TPG, then that would only add the equivalent of 10% to the asset value of the combined group. So as a TPG shareholder, I am 5x better-off seeing TPG achieve that increase themselves than I would be if I used the take-over proceeds to buy SAG shares.
I see share ** prophets have made another buy recommendation today. But whatever the merits of TPG or SAG and the Investor presentation next Tuesday (14th) , I can't see the sp bouncing strongly upwards - can you ?
Fatoomch do you really need this explaining to you? Cash or cash equivalents are just one of the items found on a balance sheet, without the remaining items there is no narrative to be drawn despite your ridiculous comment. For the record I'm chartered, but if you want to continue the financial argument go ahead.
oh that's great cat - thanks.
There's me thinking they'd had to spend £2.7m hard cash to keep the company ticking over, despite increasing revenue (but not making a profit) BUT - because its a going concern and a loan facility its not real money.
Where do I get me one of these £7m going concern loans. They look great!
and just to add to this. I asked for my voting form few days back to the investor relations of TPG, as my broker didn't have it yet. and I was sent a link to a document saying why I should vote against the whole motion. I did not ask for their opinion. Yet they are sending me and telling what I should do. I suspect the online presentation will be pushing for exactly the same message.
fatoomch - yes, I wish you were wrong, but I fear this is exactly what may happen. I have followed updates for years, they all sound great but no substance. Revenues going up and company still cannot make proper return on capital. That's not a business I am after. I have been waiting and waiting and hence the reason why I am happy to turn the chapter and move on.
Fatoomch the going concern statement will address that. Again you make massive assumptions as the cash figure in the YE's included a full draw down of the revolving facility, so to counter your assumption it's quite easy to say that TPG are no longer fully drawn. Like I said in a previous post mathematics is not your forte because you have an answer for X without having figures for Y & Z. Flip a coin you are either right or wrong but you just dont have the variables to come to the conclusion you have.
Cat, I have been a patient investor for years. I am not going into more than that. "Around 4p" - means, over as well as under. I am not looking for pursued anyone. People need to make their own minds up on this. Feel free to continue disagree with everything you want. That's absolutely fine with me. ;O)
Lasvelas - interims will be poor. Some investors don't bother/want to look at the numbers. And TPG only highlight positives. Turnover has increased by x%.
However, cash is down from £7.4m to £4.6m in first 6 months. That seem to indicate that they're still not on a financially sound footing.
Des
Lasvelas it was trading under 4p off the back of a £10M loss and an asset disposal for the sum of nowt, you have no idea whatsoever about future price movements much the same as everybody else, an improved H1 and a contract win or 2 could have easily brought the SP back to 6.5p.
You really do look at things in such a narrow minded way. The SP has made it as high as 9p and that has been despite making losses for years. You view TP from your 12 month window and unfortunately for you, you have invested at exactly the wrong time. Your views are clearly counter to nearly every single long term holder because your position is different, you need to stop arguing the toss here because for a lot of us 6.5p is just not worth it, not even close. The TPG share price has always managed to recover because there is clearly growth in revenue and the order book. The missing pieces is cost reduction leading to a profit. Though with the CEO saying publically he is addressing that why would those of us who have held in some cases 10+ years not give 12 months to see that through? The only people you are going to persuade are those who are desperate to get out or need the liquidity. The comments you have made about II's are just your complete own spin and exceptionally misleading, you actually have no idea what communication took place between the sellers and SAG, or indeed any of their reasons for selling.
If you believe TP may be taken over on the cheap then when Sag take over TP invest the money you get from the purchase of your shares in SAG. You will then still benefit from any improvement in the taken over TP Group
This has been trading around 4p, since June, before any news of take over. That's where we would be more or less. Unless TPG can deliver impressive numbers next week, that's where we would be again. We can all dream of multiples. TPG has not been able to do that. 6.5p will be the best offer at this point. The big holders would not have sold out to SAG if they thought this was undervaluing their holding or if they thought SAG would offer over 6.5p
Nice rns out getting close to the 30% level .
Truro, while you are correct about SAG's apparent ability to extract value (at least in the short term) that does TPG shareholders little good if we are simply bought out for cash at today's prices. As you say, the terms of any SAG offer were never confirmed, but I don't think there was ever any suggestion of anything other than a straight cash offer, perhaps at 6.5p.
Personally, I see TPG as having more value than 6.5p, so I would want an offer in the 9p ballpark: as straight cash; a 1 for 50 share offer; or a part/part deal - say 6.5p plus 1 SAG share for every 200 TPG share held. At present there is absolutely no prospect of SAG being interested in doing a deal at that sort of level, so I view them as a risk to my expected future value.